Free Picks for Monday, May 8th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Rickenbach
Nationals vs. Orioles
Play: Over 9
Even though the Baltimore bullpen has a solid ERA on the season they have been hit at .265 clip and its only a matter of time before more opponents start "breaking through" against them in the later innings. As for the Washington bullpen, they have compiled a 5.50 ERA and been hit at a .277 clip so far this season. Those are some of the worst marks in the majors. The reason the bullpens could prove to be significant in this one is because of the two starting pitchers. Gio Gonzalez gets the start for the Nationals and he has allowed 20 baserunners in less than 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts. He got hit hard in one outing and couldn't find the strike zone in the other outing. As for the Orioles, they are starting Kevin Gausman and he has a 7.55 ERA on the season and has allowed 5 homers in his last 12 and 1/3 innings of work. That is significant here because the Nationals lead the majors in slugging percentage so far this season and also Washington ranks near the top with 50 homers on the season! The over is 10-5 in Nats night games this season and the Nationals are 6-2 to the over in road games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125.
Mike Lundin
Chicago vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado +122
The Chicago Cubs fell 5-4 to the New York Yankees in 18 innings Sunday night. Their bullpen is taxed after using seven relievers last night (four of them threw at least 30 pitches) and playing at Coors Field here the very next night could prove extremely tough for the Cubs. I like the Colorado Rockies as a home underdog here.
The Cubs' Jake Arrieta (4-1, 4.63 ERA) has posted a 4.50 ERA in three career starts against the Rockies and he's conceded a total of 13 runs (12 earned) on 24 hits through 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts. The Rockies hand hte ball to Antonio Senzatela (4-1, 2.84 ERA). The 22 year old is 2-1 with a 3.15 in three starts at Coors Field and the Rockies have won five of his six starts overall this season.
The Cubs are just 7-16 in the last 23 meetings in Colorado. The Rockies have won four of their last five, six of their last nine and they're top of the NL West with a 20-12 record for the season.
Scott Spreitzer
Cardinals vs. Marlins
Play: Cardinals -129
St. Louis has improved upon some of its erratic play from earlier in the season and won three in a row and seven of its last 10 to go two games above .500. Carlos Martinez is coming off two quality starts, including a 2-1 win over Milwaukee on Tuesday when he allowed no earned runs and four hits in 7 1/3 innings. Martinez will have an extra day of rest after throwing 105 pitches and the Cardinals have won 19 of his last 26 starts with five days of rest and 19 of his last 28 road starts overall. Adam Conley has been clobbered his last two outings giving up 14 runs (11 earned) on 10 hits in only seven innings. Conley didn't get out of the second inning in a 12-2 loss to Pittsburgh and then was touched for five runs in 5 1/3 innings at Tampa Bay, but his team bailed him out with a 10-6 win. Miami has lost five straight against right-handed starters and five of its last seven overall.
Jim Feist
Capitals vs. Penguins
Play: Under 5½
Washington is tops in the NHL in goals allowed and with Game 6 it means win or the season is over, so look for them to focus on defense to keep it close on the road. Washington is 16-6-2 under the total against the Eastern Conference, plus 17-6-3 under after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh's defense has been great in the playoffs, on a 6-1-1 run under the total at home. And the Under is 14-5-6 in the Capitals last 25 Conference Semifinals games.
Marc Lawrence
Indians vs. Blue Jays
Play: Indians +105
Edges - Indians: 5-1 last six games n this series… Toronto: Stroman 0-3 with 4.29 ERA at home this season. With the Blue Jays 0-4 at home in series openers this season, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Dustin Hawkins
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Play: Kansas City +140
Kansas City is 52-33 against the money line vs. a bad bullpen like the Rays that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 3 seasons. Tampa Bay is 13-31 against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.The Royal's are 11-3 against the Ray's over the last 3 seasons.
Darryl Tucholski
Warriors vs. Jazz
Play: Over 206
Despite 6 of the last 7 meetings hitting the Under, its time to lay the over tonight. The Warriors will look to put the Jazz away, and will do so in dramatic fashion.
In game 3, Klay Thompson and Steph Curry combined to go 7-29 from the floor, and 3-15 from beyond the arc, while the Jazz went to the line 36 times. You can expect a better game flow tonight, and a 3 Pt bounce back from the splash brothers.
Frank Jordan
Golden State Warriors vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Golden State Warriors -8
Golden State had an interesting game in game three in Utah. They started with a 10 lead at the end of the first quarter, found themselves down one at the half, back up a couple heading into the fourth, where they took over outscoring Utah 30-21 on their way to a 102-91 victory. Golden State got just 29 points total from Curry and Thompson on 7 of 29 shooting, but Durant was brought in to be an MVP and put up 38 points and 13 rebounds to lead the way for the Warriors. Utah got 10+ points from all five starters and 29 from Hayward, but just 10 points off the bench and missed 10 foul shots which was the big reason for the loss. Golden State wasn't on their game from three hitting just 9 of 30 including 3 of 18 from Green, Curry and Thompson, but Durant was 4 of 8. Look for Curry and Thompson to pick things up along with Durant staying hot as the Warriors complete the sweep.
Rob Vinciletti
Washington vs. Baltimore
Play: Baltimore +102
The Orioles have won 15 of 21 at night and 12 of 15 if the total is 8 to 8.5. Home teams off a home favored win that scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits are cashing 88% long term vs an opponent off a road favored loss like the Nationals. Gonzalez goes for Washington and he is 1-5 vs Baltimore. Gausman for The Orioles was solid last year going 6 scoreless vs Washington. Look for Baltimore to take this one.
Will Rogers
Washington vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Washington
The set-up: The Caps began the third period of Saturday's Game 5 down 2-1 and 20 minutes away from losing yet another postseason series. However, Washington scored three goals less than eight minutes in, capped by Alex Ovechkin's fifth goal of this year's playoffs (he has three assists for eight points). "We're still down. We take good moments in the game (Saturday) and move forward," Ovechkin told reporters. Pittsburgh captain Sidney Crosby and fellow forward Conor Sheary returned on Saturday from one-game absences due to concussions, with Crosby notching his franchise high-tying 96th playoff assist for his 12th point (four goals, eight assists) in nine contests this postseason.
Washington: Ovechkin has been impressive versus Pittsburgh with 26 points (12 goals, 14 assists) in 18 career postseason games. However, the Penguins have enjoyed the last laugh by winning seven of the previous eight series and going on to capture the Stanley Cup after the last two (2009, 2016). While Ovechkin often gets the headlines, countryman Evgeny Kuznetsov continues to be one of the main stories of this series after scoring a goal in each of the last three games to tie Nicklas Backstrom and Ovechkin for the team lead with five. Goaltender Hotlby held Pittsburgh at bay in the third period and since getting pulled in Game 2 (a 6-2 Pittsburgh win), has stopped 63 of 70 shots (.900 SP), which includes that "own goal" in Game 4.
Pittsburgh: Crosby told reporters that his team needs to focus on puck possession as a means to overcome a huge shot discrepancy in the series (Washington leads 174-115). "I would say just a little bit more zone time," the two-time Hart Trophy winner - and 2017 finalist - told reporters. "If we can hold on to the puck a little bit more, we should get more shots. I think we'll generate a little bit more from that." The Penguins may have won seven of the previous eight series against the Capitals but Pittsburgh head coach Mike Sullivan isn't interested in history, whether it dates back to last season's second-round series versus Washington or the events of Game 5. "We have to have a short memory," Sullivan told reporters. "We just have to reset our mindset and go home and try to put our very best on the ice."
The pick: Yes, the Capitals lost Game 6 in Pittsburgh last year 4-3 in overtime but the Capitals had won Game 6 in four off the previous series in which they had trailed 3-2. I expect them to win here and extend the series to a Game 7 in Washington?
Power Sports
Giants vs. Mets
Pick: Mets
Sunday was a day to forget in Queens as the Metropolitans suspended Matt Harvey (violation of team rules) not long before he was due to start against Miami. The result was an ugly 7-0 loss. But, let us not forget that the Mets had taken the first two games of that series. Despite several injuries, the offense had been performing at an exceptional level as well. Here, they draw a Giants team that over its last 100 games has shockingly been the WORST in ALL of MLB! With tonight's pitching matchup decidedly in their favor, the Mets are a strong recommendation here.
Jacob deGrom will be the one getting the baseball here for the home team. While deGrom did give up five runs in his last start, it hardly mattered as the Mets supplied him w/ a ton of support in a 16-5 win over the Braves. Also, let's look at deGrom's three previous starts, shall we? He registered double digit strikeouts in all three and 35 total in 19 2/3 innings! That's impressive stuff. Given the Giants were shutout yesterday and outscored 31-5 in a three-game sweep by the Reds, I can't state enough what a favorable spot this appears to be for deGrom and the Mets.
The Giants are really bad. Going into the All-Star Break last year, they actually had the best record in baseball at 57-33. Since that time, they've posted the WORST record in all of baseball at 41-63 L104 regular season games. As I just stated, they were outscored 31-5 by the Reds over the weekend. Not only were they shutout Sunday, but in four of the seven games previous, the pitching staff had allowed 12 runs or more. One of those was in a start made by Matt Moore, who will go again Monday. Last Tuesday, Moore allowed nine runs in just 3 1/3 innings at Dodger Stadium. He's now allowed 5+ ER in three of his last four starts.
Bruce Marshall
Chicago at Colorado
Pick: Colorado
This line is based purely on reputation and not current reality which suggests the Cubs bear little resemblance to their World Series team of last season and that the Rocks are much improved. The comparisons filter down to the starting pitchers, as Chicago's Jake Arrieta is way off his 2015 Cy Young form while young Antonio Sentezela continues to impress for the Rocks, with his 2.84 ERA. Note that Arrieta does not have much of a track record at Coors Field and was shelled in his lone start in Denver sicne 2014, allowing 9 runs and 13 hits in just 5 IP in his only start.
Handicappers Hub
San Francisco at New York
Play: new York -1½ +148
The SF Giants are an absolute mess and that lineup is a joke averaging just 3.3 runs per game and 2.7 runs in their last 13 games including just 5 runs total this weekend! The Mets aren't too much better averaging just 3.8 runs per game at home but I think they will get to Matt Moore tonight and have some success as he is struggling with a 12.80 ERA on the road this season! I do not see the Giants having any success at all against deGrom and I like the Mets to run away with this one at Citi Field tonight!
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Oakland
Pick: Oakland -103
It has been a rough start for both Oakland and the Los Angeles Angels as they open their series with both teams below .500. Ironically, Kendall Graveman and Ricky Nolasco will face each other for the third time this season already, and we are just in early May. Oakland, after a poor stretch, has gotten things turned around winning three of their last four games. The Angels have been going in the wrong direction at 1-4 over their last five with an over-taxed bullpen and a staff allowing over six runs a game in the stretch. The Angels have been woeful vs. right handed starters on the road where they are 18-37 in their last 55 against them. The A's are now 8-2 in Graveman's last 10 starts on a regular four days of rest and have cashed opportunities at home vs. losing teams, now 5-1 in their last six.