DAVE COKIN
ORIOLES AT TWINS
PLAY: TWINS +105
If you read yesterday’s entry, I focused on the inability of one of the starting pitchers to get swings and misses. More of the same tonight as the Orioles take to the road to face the struggling Twins.
Tyler Wilson will be on the mound for the Birds, and he falls into the same category as Justin Nicolino, who I played against yesterday. Wilson is a soft tosser by big league standards. His game is to generate ground balls with his arsenal as he just doesn’t have the stuff to blow away opposing hitters.
The problem for Wilson, and for most pitchers of this type, is that he has to locate extremely well to succeed. It’s definitely not impossible by any stretch. But for guys who can’t get those K’s, the task is simply tougher than for hurlers who can register that crucial punch out when it’s most needed. The good news for Wilson is that he’s doing a nice job of not beating himself with walks, and he can also escape trouble with a well-timed ground ball that results in a double play. But the bottom line for me is that I see Wilson as nothing more than a back end starter who is going to have to grind out quality starts.
Jose Berrios is an entirely different type of pitcher. He’s very young and there are going to be growing pains. But Berrios is a future top of the rotation stud. He’s got a four-pitch arsenal and while command is absolutely an issue right now, it’s very easy to project Berrios as a guy who has a real chance to be an All-Star down the road.
Berrios will have to be sharp tonight to tame a very potent Orioles lineup, and he really can’t afford to be overly generous with the free passes against this opponent. But the good news is that while the Orioles have been deadly at home, they haven’t been nearly as dangerous on the road to date. I’m hoping that’s the case again tonight.
The Twins are pretty much unplayable on the road at this juncture. But they’ve swung the bats better at home, and for whatever reason, the bullpen, a sieve on the road, has been terrific at Target.
Minnesota has lost its last five, so this clearly isn’t exactly the nuts when it comes to finding a prime spot to back a team. But with Berrios having gotten that crucial first win under his belt, I think he’s got a reasonable chance to pitch well this evening. I like the Twins to do some damage to Wilson and at least for the time being, there appears to be some value in firing against the Orioles when they get away from Camden Yards. I made the Minnesota side -115 here, so I like the idea of backing Berrios and the Twins as a small home dog.
Sleepyj
NY Mets -115
Steven Matz has now found his groove and a long trip back to LA might hurt the Dodgers here..azmir gets the nod for the Dodgers and I have little faith he can shut down this Mets lineup...Mets only travel from SD to LA and that will be a big help coming off a win...Dodgers got a win last night and they might be a tad lazy here..itching will be the key and I trust the Mets all around from the SP to the bullpen here...I'll back my Mets here at a small price.
Rob Vinciletti
Dallas vs. St Louis
Play: St Louis -155
Teams at home in game 6 in this exact win and site sequence wrap up the series 75% of the time in game 6 at home. The Blues are 33-12 off a dog win an Dallas is 9-27 as a dog off a home loss and 3-5 in a series when down 3-2. The Blues are 20-10 on the road when the total is 5 or less and we will back them to end it tonight on their home ice.
Stephen Nover
Pirates -120
The Pirates had the lowest bullpen ERA last season. Pittsburgh's bullpen ERA currently ranks 21st this season. Still, it's nowhere near as atrocious as Cincinnati's relief staff.
How terrible is the Reds' bullpen? Record-bad that's how bad. Cincinnati's arson squad has surrendered at least one run in 25 of the last 26 games. The Reds bullpen is on pace to issue the third-most walks per season in baseball history.
Cincinnati already has blown eight leads when ahead entering the seventh inning. Opening-day closer J.J. Hoover looked more like Herbert Hoover and has been banished to the minors. The bullpen situation is so awful in Cincinnati that David Weathers is now being fondly remembered.
The Reds have dropped 12 of their 17 games with a bullpen ERA of 7.07 during this span. So the Reds' bullpen has to be a heavily handicapped in a starting pitching matchup of lefty Jon Niese versus converted reliever Dan Straily.
Niese hasn't pitched well in his last three starts. He said, though, after his last outing he identified mechanical flaws. So I'm expecting improvement from the veteran. It's a plus Niese is a southpaw as the Reds are 5-17 in their last 22 games against a lefty. They have lost 10 of the past 14 times at home when facing a lefthander.
Reds starter Dan Straily has spent most of his five years in the American League. He's been decent during his first four starts with the Reds posting a 3.56 ERA. This is above his career norm. His ERA was nearly 4.00 during his final full year with the A's in 2013. He split the 2014 season between the A's and Cubs posting an 11.85 ERA in limited bullpen work with the Cubs and a 4.93 ERA with Oakland. He had a 5.40 ERA with the Astros last year.
Straily has given up eight walks and four homers in his last three starts spanning 17 innings. So he doesn't figure to go deep into the game. Straily will be dealing with a potent Pirates outfield and an infield whose power has been strengthened with the return of Jung Ho Kang.
Note, too, the Pirates have won six of their last seven road games.
Marc Lawrence
Mets vs. Dodgers
Play: Mets -113
Edges - Mets: Steven Matz 2-0 away with 1.35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this season. Dodgers: Scott Kazmir 0-2 home with 5.40 ERA and 1.90 WHIP this season; and 1-4 last five team starts during May. With Matz 4-1 in strong KW form with 20K’s and 3 BB’s his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on the Mets.
Matt Josephs
Tigers vs. Nationals
Play: Tigers +1½
The Nats limp home after being swept by the Cubs in Chicago. Washington turns to their best pitcher in Stephen Strasburg who is 5-0 with a 2.36 ERA in six starts. Strasburg will be put in an odd role though of not only being the stopper, but the innings eater as well. Washington's bullpen is struggling and will most likely not have Blake Treinen and maybe Jonathan Papelbon who went two innings on Sunday. Strasburg lost his only start against Detroit back in 2013. The Tigers are struggling right now, but are capable of a lot more. They are hitting .296 in six Interleague games and have some talent there. Anibal Sanchez is 9-1 with a 1.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.139 in 21 starts against the Nats with most of those coming as a Marlin. He has good numbers against Stephen Drew (6-25), Jayson Werth (6-33) and Ryan Zimmerman (11-48). Washington's offense put up some ugly numbers on Sunday and is hitting just .230 at home this season. Bryce Harper was walked six times and it didn't hurt them with Zimmerman's struggles. A Tigers win would be very nice on Monday, but I'll play the price and the value of the runline. There's always the chance Strasburg has one of his rough outings and a capable Detroit lineup takes advantage.
Ari Atari
Tigers vs. Nationals
Play:Nationals -146
Detroit has dropped 6 in a row and Annibal Sanchez isn't the man to help them out of this funk right now with a 3-3 record and a 5.87 ERA. Stephen Strasburg is playing a contract season and he'll be sharp for us tonight with a 5-0 record and a 2.36 ERA. The Nats are coming off a sweep against the red hot Cubs but they're too good to drop a 5th with an 8-3 home record in their last 11.
Larry Ness
Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Jake Peavy won the CY Young award while pitching for rth Padres in 2007 and then played on back-to-back World Series teams, the Red Sox in 2013 and the Giants in 2014. Injuries limited him to 19 starts for the Giants last year but a strong finish gave him and the team plenty of optimism heading into 2016. Peavy lost his first four starts of 2015 but went 8-2 over his final 15 (team was 11-4), allowing three ERs or less in 11 of those starts (just five ERs allowed total, in his last five outings). However, the 2016 season has brought nothing but disappointment for Peavy.
He’s 1-3 in his first first six starts of the season (Giants are 2-4), allowing 47 hits and 29 ERs over just 29 innings (easy to do the math there, which gives him a 9.00 ERA). Opponents are batting .367 against him. He has surrendered 13 runs in his last two starts while his opposite number in tonight’s game, Toronto’s Aaron Sanchez, has given up 13 runs all season (2-1 with a 2.82 ERA in six starts / team is 3-3). Sanchez will face a Giants team which has been shut out through nine innings in consecutive games against the Rockies. San Francisco lost 2-1 in 13 innings on Saturday (lone score came in the 10th), then lost 2-0 yesterday afternoon.
"I didn't see that coming with this offense," Bochy said. "We've been in a little rut the last couple of days with the bats. Just got to get them going." San Francisco is 2 for 14 with runners in scoring position in its last two and is batting .234 in those situations over the last six. Prior to that, the Giants were at .286. Toronto’s struggled on offense this year and has been held to three runs or less 15 times (2-13 in such games), after Sunday's 4-2 home loss to the Dodgers. However, Sanchez has worked seven innings in FOUR of six starts this season, and he has been sensational on the road with a 2-0 record in three starts (team is 2-1), posting a microscopic 0.86 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.
Power Sports
Cleveland vs. Houston
Pick: Cleveland
I still believe in Corey Kluber and based on his ERA vs. WHIP disparity, you probably should too. The former is a respectable 3.35, but it is the latter (0.935) that should catch your attention as it shows that Kluber is far too unlucky when it comes to the percentage of baserunners he allows actually scoring.
Houston has been a major disappointment so far in 2016 and much of that is tied to a bullpen that has regressed big time (6th in ERA last year down to 23rd). But I haven't been too impressed with the starting rotation either and that includes Michael Fiers, who has a 5.35 ERA after allowing four runs in 4 2/3 IP his last time out. That's more runs that Kluber has allowed in his last three starts combined. By the way, Kluber comes off a complete game shutout of Detroit the last time we saw him, which was clearly a step towards trending in the right direction.
Despite salvaging a split with Seattle over the weekend, the Astros are still only 12-20 and in last place in the AL West. Cleveland, meanwhile, is now two games over .500 w/ the AL's fifth best run differential. Last season, even en route to winning the division, Houston dropped five of seven to the Tribe, who has now won five of its last six games overall.
Big Al
San Jose vs. Nashville
Pick: Nashville
The Predators may be the Wild Card team in this series, but you wouldn't necessarily know it from the scores so far. San Jose's excellent road success in the regular season - the Sharks had the best visitor's record in the league at 28-13 - hasn't translated to this series as the home team has won each of the first five games. That bodes well for the Preds back in Nashville tonight and even if the Sharks win this series at home in game seven, nobody can accuse Nashville of being an unworthy opponent. But maybe the problem for the Sharks isn't so much a "road" problem as it is that they just don't like Music City. The Sharks are 1-8 in the last nine meetings here with that lone victory coming in a 3-2 shootout win. So if they can advance, it's certainly possible that the Sharks will be back to their winning road ways in the Conference Finals. But first things first, and the visitors certainly have their work cut out for them tonight as the home team is 41-18 in the last 59 meetings and the Preds are 5-2 in their last seven games here.
Art Aronson
Tampa Bay at Seattle
Pick: Seattle
The visitors hand the ball to Matt Moore (1-3, 4.95 ERA) who was shelled for seven runs off eight hits and three walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday. Moore started the season decently, but has now dropped three consecutive decisions. The southpaw sports a poor 1.5 HR/9 and low strand rate at 63.2 percent. The home side counters with Felix Hernandez (2-2, 2.21 ERA) who is also coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up eight runs off nine hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the A’s on Wednesday. We don’t think there’s any need to panic if you’re a fan of “The King’s,” those types of starts happen to every pitcher over the course of a season, he fanned 16 batters in his first two starts to begin the year and all signs point to a bounce back (Hernandez was 11-6 with a 3.03 ERA at home last year, compared to Moore’s poor 1-2, 6.94 road record). We think Hernandez is worth the price of admission in this matchup, consider a second look at the Mariners on Monday.
Jim Feist
Royals at Yankees
Pick: Over
The Royals finished their series with the Indians losing two of three games, including Sunday's setback, 5-4. The Royals have now lost seven of their last 10. The pitching hasn't been anywhere near as dominant as it was last season. Today's starter, Chris Young, is a good example of that. The 36-year-old veteran is 1-4 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Young has three starts in a row that have been sub-quality. The Yankees have struggled this season, losing seven of their last 10 games and siting in last place in the AL East. Ivan Nova starts his first game this season, after working six games out of the pen. Nova replaces CC Sabathia who has gone on the DL. Nova has a 5.14 ERA out of the pen this year. Neither of these pitchers have shown anything this year and with that, I'm going to play OVER here with two underachieving pitching staffs.
Ray Monohan
Seattle Mariners -127
The Mariners and Rays get set to begin a weekday series and with the Mariners ace on the hill, the home team holds solid value here.
Felix Hernandez is 2-2 on the year with a 2.21 ERA on the year. Hernandez has always been a much more dominant pitcher at home, with the Kings Court in left field really giving him a boost with their "K" chants.
The Rays send out Matt Moore who has struggled this season. Moore is just 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA as he 7 runs on 8 hits in just 4.1 innings of work against the Dodgers last time out. Moore has always struggled on the road and combine that with his struggles as a whole this season and he's in for a tough time against a hot Mariners team.
Some trends to consider. Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Seattle with Hernandez on the mound has plenty of value here at this listed price. Look for them to start this series off on the right foot with a win.
Jeff Alexander
Warriors vs. Blazers
Play: Warriors -5
I wasn't the least bit surprise to see Golden State lose Game 3 on Saturday, but I'm confident the Warriors are going to bounce back and take Game 4 in Portland tonight. No Steph Curry no problem for the Warriors in this one. Golden State is going to come out with a different mentality on the defensive side of the ball after giving up 120 points in Game 3. Offensively the Warriors continue to have their way with the Blazers and I just don't see Portland winning back-to-back games here. Let's not forget Golden State dropped Game 3 in Houston after taking a 2-0 lead and then came out an destroyed the Rockets 121-94 in Game 4. Warriors are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 off a game where they failed to cover the spread and the Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100+ points.
Brandon Lee
Mariners -125
Seattle is worth a look here at home against the Rays on Monday. The Mariners will send out their ace Felix Hernandez, who is 2-2 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 6 starts. Hernandez has a perfect 0.00 ERA in 2 home starts and is poised for a big bounce back start after his worst outing of the year against the A's. Even if Hernandez isn't on top of his game, Seattle's offense should provide enough run support to secure a win here. Tampa Bay will send out the struggling Matt Moore, who has a 7.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Rays are just 4-16 in their last 20 road games after 2 straight contests in which the bullpen didn't allow a run, why Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-0 in their last 5 during Game 1 of a series.