Jimmy Boyd
Mets -105
New York is showing some great value here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Dodgers. Los Angeles will be returning home from a 5-game road trip that ended with a 3-game set against the Blue Jays. There's going to be some jet lag to overcome in their first game back and that gives the Mets an even bigger advantage in this one.
New York already had the edge on the mound with Steven Matz going up against the struggling Scott Kazmir. Matz is 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in 5 starts. He's been even better of late with a 0.90 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Kazmir is 2-2 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in 6 starts, including an 0-2 record at home with a 5.40 ERA and 1.900 WHIP.
Dodgers are just 1-6 in their last 7 home games after hitting .240 or worse over their previous 10 games, 1-5 in their last 6 during Game 1 of a series and Kazmir is 0-8 in his last 8 starts after giving up 2 or more home runs in his last outing. Mets are 29-13 in their last 42 road games when listed as a favorite of -100 to -150, 24-7 in their last 31 off a win by one run and 6-1 in their last 7 against a left-handed starter.
Bill Biles
New York Mets -105
The Mets send Steven Matz to the hill where he has a 0.67 ERA while winning his last four starts. The Mets will look to get keep up there winning streak and make it 3 in a row tonight. Their might be some bad blood in this one as this is the first time these 2 teams have played each other since last years playoff series. Look for the Mets to take game 1 of this series.
Will Rogers
Arizona vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
The Colorado Rockies are just a game back of the first place Dodgers in the NL West, and they are one game up on Arizona. The Diamondbacks are in town for Game 1 of a new series at Coors Field tonight, and this looks like a good spot to back Colorado at home.
Here are my keys to the game:
1, Pitching - Tyler Chatwood will get the call for the Rockies, and he's coming off his best start of the season. Chatwood (4-2, 2.15 ERA) tossed eight scoreless innings, striking out seven in a win at San Diego in his last start. He shut out Arizona through 6.1 innings in his previous start. The D'Backs will send Avery Bradley to the mound, and he was hit hard in his only previous appearance this season.
2. Nolan Arenado - Colorado's slugger is swinging a hot bat, and he was 3-for-4 with a double, a triple and an RBI last night. He's batting .362 with a half a dozen home runs and 15 RBIs in just 47 at bats at Coors this year.
3. X-Factor - The Rockies are 5-0 in Tyler Chatwood's last five starts versus Arizona.
Zack Cimini
Pirates at Reds
Play: Pirates
The Cincinnati Reds bats look to keep in order as they open a home stand series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cincinnati's found some life in team hitting that has translated to scoring four runs or more in seven of their last eight games. Hot at the plate has been Brandon Phillips who has belted five home runs in his last five games. Still, the Reds deficiencies are glaring on the mound. Monday they'll send Dan Straily to square off against veteran Jon Niese. Straily did come through with a win in his last outing but I'm expecting a decline Monday. Look for the Pirates increased activity at the plate to continue and carry over against the Reds bullpen.
Wunderdog
Dallas @ St. Louis
Pick: Under 5
The pressure is on this young Dallas team, down 3-2 after blowing home ice again the last game, a 4-1 loss. Dallas is #19 in the NHL in goals allowed. Dallas forward Tyler Seguin (lower body) isn't making the trip to St. Louis, while forward Patrick Eaves (leg) is banged up. The Dallas offense has scored just 10 goals in five games. St. Louis is a powerhouse on defense, fourth in goals allowed and second in penalty killing. Goalie Brian Elliott had a dominant regular season and is having a great postseason. The Blues are at their best with relentless forechecking and physical play counteracting a faster opponent, a strategy that has worked against Dallas. This shapes up as a defensive game.
GoodFella
Rays TT Over 3.5
The Rays are on a nice roll right now, winners of 4 straight ball games. I do think they get to Felix eventually tonight. King Felix has not been sharp in two of his last three starts. The fact is that his velocity is down this season. I like these streaking Rays to plate at least 4 runs in this spot tonight. Of course we are guaranteed 9 AB's due to the Rays being the visiting club. We'll just see what happens here, and I am on the RAYS Team Total going over the 3.5 on Monday night.
Scott Rickenbach
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 10-0 this season when they are revenging a loss and the Warriors have covered 8 of those 10 games. Yes, a healthy Stephen Curry would sure be nice but let's not forget some of the big performances that Golden State has already had in the post-season without Curry on the floor. Fired up off of a loss, look for the Warriors to bring their "A game" tonight. It is unlikely that the Blazers are again going to hit 17 of 30 three pointers as they did Saturday night. Keep in mind that, even with the Game 3 win, the Trail Blazers are still just 2-6 SU and ATS in 2nd round playoff games the past three seasons. In fact, in all playoff games the past three seasons, Portland is 8-16 ATS! The Blazers are going to face a fired up Warriors team tonight and Golden State won all 5 of their games this season when they were off of a loss by 10 points or more in their prior game. Great shot at a road rout in this one.
Steve Janus
Orioles vs. Twins
Play: Over 8½
Play Over - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (MINNESOTA) - with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, starting a pitcher who walked 5 or more hitters last outing. This system is 32-10 (76%) against the total over the last 5 seasons.
Jeff Alexander
Warriors vs. Blazers
Play: Warriors -5
I wasn't the least bit surprise to see Golden State lose Game 3 on Saturday, but I'm confident the Warriors are going to bounce back and take Game 4 in Portland tonight. No Steph Curry no problem for the Warriors in this one. Golden State is going to come out with a different mentality on the defensive side of the ball after giving up 120 points in Game 3. Offensively the Warriors continue to have their way with the Blazers and I just don't see Portland winning back-to-back games here. Let's not forget Golden State dropped Game 3 in Houston after taking a 2-0 lead and then came out an destroyed the Rockets 121-94 in Game 4. Warriors are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 off a game where they failed to cover the spread and the Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100+ points.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays -109
Given the huge advantage the Toronto Blue Jays have on the mound today, they should certainly be much bigger road favorites over the San Francisco Giants. We'll gladly take advantage and back the Blue Jays in what should be a blowout in their favor.
Aaron Sanchez is one of the best young starters in baseball. He is 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in six starts this season. Sanchez has been at his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in three starts away from home.
Jake Peavy is easily the worst starter in the Giants' rotation and well past his prime. The right-hander has gone 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.897 WHIP in six starts this season for the Giants. Peavy gave up 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 6 1/3 innings in his last start against Toronto.
Toronto is 25-8 (+17.2 Units) against the money line after 7 or more consecutive home games over the last three seasons. Peavy is 7-18 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. Toronto is 6-2 in its last eight meetings with San Francisco.
Joseph D'Amico
White Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -117
Two of the hottest teams in the AL square off today as the Central-leading White Sox (won 3 straight) go into Arlington to face the Rangers, who are a 1/2 game back in the West (and also won 3 straight). Texas just swept Detroit, 3-0 outscoring them, 23-9, and swatting 8 HR's. They give Colby Lewis the nod at home. The RH is 2-0 with an ERA of 3.32 this season and owns a career, 7-3 mark vs. Chicago. The White Sox recalled Miguel Gonzalez from Triple-A. The RH was devoured in his only appearance this year, giving up 5 runs and 11 hits in 5 1/3 IP. The Rangers are 6-1 in Lewis' L7 starts vs. the White Sox, 9-3 their L12 during Game 1 of a series, and 37-17 their L54 at home.
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians -108
Corey Kluber is back to being the same dominant starter he was two years ago when he won the Cy Young. He is 2-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in 6 starts, 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.573 WHIP in 3 road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.583 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Mike Fiers has struggled in the early going for the Astros, going 2-1 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in 6 starts this year. Kluber is 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.063 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Houston. The Astros are 1-10 (-12.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Mets -103 over LOS ANGELES
Steven Matz went 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA in 36 innings for the Mets last year. Matz suffered a partially torn left lat muscle in early July and spent about two months on the shelf. His combination of a groundball lean, solid K-rate, good control and success v righties propelled the much-hyped prospect to a strong, albeit brief, debut.
This year, Matz looks even better and his base skills have been electric with 9.4 K’s/9 2.2 BB/9 and a 55% groundball lean. Oh, and Matz is pretty good with the bat too, which is an added bonus when backing an NL starter.
Scott Kazmir had a great 3.10 ERA and solid 1.21 WHIP in 2015, marks that helped him produce a profitable return most of the year. However, his base skills weren't nearly as intriguing. A 28% hit rate and 79% strand rate teamed to drive down his ERA. His 4.03 xERA delivers a more accurate forecast of where his ERA is more likely to end up in 2016. The Mets come in locked and loaded with one of the best records in baseball. They’ve won 10 of 15 road games while the Dodgers are just a game over .500 and have won just five of 13 home games. Prices this cheap on Steven Matz won't be around much longer so get it while it's good.
COLORADO -1½ +145 over Arizona
Tyler Chatwood looked good in his return to the mound for the first time in nearly two years on Wednesday, April 6. Thing is, Chatwood has not let up so the sample size keeps getting larger. With a 2.15 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through his first six starts and 37.2 innings, Chatwood is one of the biggest pitching surprises of the year and it appears to be legit. Chatwood has a nice 10% swing and miss rate, a BB/K split of 8/27 and perhaps most importantly, a very strong groundball rate of 55%. It’s been only one month for this 26-year-old with a long history of arm trouble and the prospect of playing half of his games in a hostile pitching environment doesn’t help, but we may be able to get a few more games of great value on him.
Archie Bradley is just 23 years old and he has a good arm but he has had nothing but problems at this level. Bradley went 2-3, with a 5.80 ERA in 36 innings for the Diamondbacks last year. He had two decent starts to open the season (last year), then things went downhill. A stretch of four disasters in five starts, then on the DL by June 4 (shoulder). From there, stops, starts and trips to Dr. James Andrews. Made it back in mid-August for five AAA starts (25 IP, 6 ER, 29/10 K/BB) but we’ve seen him do well in the minors before. Bradley did himself no favors in his April 18 start against the Giants this year, allowing seven hits, four walks, and five earned runs in his four-plus frames. In his brief, 40-inning career, he’s now walked 26 while fanning 25. After that April 18th start, Bradley was sent down again. What we find so curious is that the Diamondbacks are dealing with a good arm but a fragile mind. Confidence and mindset is a major part of being successful at this level. The D-Backs just finished a three-game set in Atlanta. Why on Earth would they not give this kid a chance to pitch in Atlanta and thrive instead of feeding him to the wolves one day later in Colorado? It’s like they’re setting Bradley up for failure, which prompts us to step in.
Chris Jordan
Twice last week I delivered the Nashville Predators as 500♦ winners, both at Bridgestone Arena. After they've fallen behind in the series again, now 3-2, I like them to force a Game 7. Not enough as a premium play, but I'm using the Preds as my free winner over the St. Louis Blues.
This team is once again playing with a sense of urgency and you're going to see their physical nature shine through and get their best game of the postseason, since it's do or die tonight.
The Sharks, I know, can be a deadly team. Very dangerous with their scoring prowess, so the last thing the Preds want to do is allow San Jose to jump out in front. That's why I think we're going to see the Predators play a similar game as Game 3, when they were extremely productive and won, 4-1.
Hearing the confidence from the Predators, in that they felt they could turn the series in their favor after Game 2, was enough for me to believe this series was going to take on a brand new complexion. Now the Predators have a chance to seize momentum and force the decisive game. Remember, they fell behind in the Anaheim series and came back to win that one on the road in seven. Winning on the road in the first round gave them confidence, so a win tonight gives them the same confidence to win on the road in that potential Game 7.
This is a team with a lot of resiliency. After finishing with 38 wins and 88 points last season, the Predators had more than 41 wins and 96 points and competed for first place the Central Division. It ended up in fourth place behind Dallas, St. Louis and Chicago.
St. Louis eliminated Chicago, and the Stars are still around. So are the Predators. And tonight they'll skate with pride.
5* PREDATORS
Brad Wilton
My comp play release for Monday night is Over the total in Game Six of the Stars and Blues.
Game Five landed right on the total of 5, and since Dallas is now facing elimination, you know as well as I do that if they are behind, they will not hesitate to pull their goalie as early as they can to try and stay alive.
Empty-net goals tend to add up quickly when that is the case, and the fact the Over is 3-1-2 between these teams since the regular season gives you some idea that the offense will be a threat again tonight.
The Stars are 5-1-3 Over the total their last 8 this postseason, while the Blues stand also stand at 5-1-3 Over the total in their last 8 this playoff season.
Stick with the percentages, and go Over in Dallas-St. Louis Game Six.
4* DALLAS-ST. LOUIS OVER