Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Under in the Toronto-Miami meeting.
The last two games in this series have both held Under the total, and that includes an extra five minutes in Game Two's overtime affair.
In reality, Game One was easily Under the total as well, but that game also saw overtime on Kyle Lowry's half-court heave that tied the contest and sent it into overtime right at the buzzer.
The Raptors have seen 8 of their 10 playoff games hold Under the total, and the Under stands at 12-4 overall dating back to the regular season.
As for the Heat, they are 7-1 Under the total in their last 8 this postseason.
Going to play the percentages and look for Game Four to also hold Under the total in Miami.
2* TORONTO-MIAMI UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the team I've rode all last week in some capacity. From my premium plays, to a pay-after winner on Saturday and now with my complimentary winner - I love the Chicago Cubs.
Today you're playing them on the run line.
Let's put in perspective how good the Cubs actually are. The Washington Nationals came into a weekend series on a 5-1 run during their 10-game road trip and 11-4 away from home this season. The Cubs won four straight, sweeping the series, and are off to their best 29-game start in more than a 100 years.
Sitting at 24-6, the Cubbies look like a team on a mission for October. Chicago has clearly made a statement it is the team to beat in the National League.
The Cubs have the majors' best run differential at plus-102 (184-82).. That's why you don't have to worry about the pitchers in this one, as the Cubs are getting things done done regardless of who is on the hill for either team, thanks to their power-packed lineup
The hard-hitting Cubbies will dominate the San Diego Padres tonight at Wrigley. Take the home team here - big.
5* CUBS -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 52-41 run with free picks: Detroit at WASHINGTON (-1', +115)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Detroit Tigers might want to schedule a tour of the White House while they're in Washington D.C., and skip their Interleague series with the Washington Nationals. This is a bad time for the Tigers to face what has to be an angry Nationals team, after what took place the past four days.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Redemption, that's what I'm calling it. The Nationals were swept in Chicago by the Cubbies, and return home with their tails between their legs, mired in a four-game skid and now sitting in second place in the National League East, behind the defending N.L. champion New York Mets. Washington is going to waste no time in this game, or series, and will come out firing.
BOTTOM LINE is - Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team, as the Nationals want to get their bats going again, and get back on track.
3* NATIONALS
Harry Bondi
MIAMI -5 over Toronto
We are going to try this again with Miami. Heat have been the best home team ATS over the last month going 12-4 ATS and are 10-3 ATS the game following a loss. Toronto's Kyle Lowry finally found his shooting stroke scoring 29 of his 33 points in the second half of Game 3, but he has shot just 30% in the postseason and has yet to put two good games together in the playoffs. Heat have to get this one and win comfortably even without Hasson Whiteside.
Buster Sports
Dallas at St. Louis
Play: Over 5
Dallas has really struggled without Tyler Seguin in this series especially on the Power Play as they have only one PP goal in this series. We feel that will change tonight. Dallas still has tons of firepower which made them the top scoring team in the regular season. Guys like Benn, Sharp and Spezza are known goal scorers and when your back is to the wall its time to come and play. Coach Ruff who is known for his intensity which filters to his teams will have them ready tonight. The only reason this is not a play on Dallas is because of how we feel about the goal-tending situation of the Stars. Also because the Dallas goal-tending can be so terrible it makes our free play that much stronger.
We are backed in our choice with the fact that Dallas is 14-4 O/U after a loss of 2 Goals or more and Dallas is 9-1 O/U after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game. All this adds up to an easy win on the over in this game.
So lets get the job done as we play the over for your free play in tonights GM.
Bob Balfe
Heat -4.5
The Heat in my opinion are the better team in this series. Miami turned the ball over like crazy in the first two games or they would have won both. The Heat protected the ball the last game, but shot very poorly and could not make a 3 pointer for the life of them. I think the Heat put it all together tonight and make a series out of this. This is such a big game at home and I believe they will put together a great performance winning by double digits. Take the Heat.
Indians -115
The Indians have been just average on the road this year, but I believe tonight they hold the advantage with the starting pitcher. Michael Fiers has been awful this year for Houston and has given up way too many hits and home runs. The wind is blowing out tonight so there should be a lot of long balls for Cleveland. Look for a very entertaining offensive game. Take Cleveland.
Vegas Butcher
Cleveland Indians -118
My #8 ranked starter in Kluber going in this one. Kluber has lost some velocity on his fastball this year but he’s compensated by improving his off-speed pitches and increasing his GB-rate. Houston lineup struggles against the off-speed stuff and of course they’re very susceptible to a pitcher whose swinging strike rate is almost 14%. On the other side we have Fiers who is more of a fly-ball pitcher and whose K-rate has dropped to only 18% this season. Cleveland has a top-10 lineup against right-handers and I like their chances of having success off Fiers tonight. I have this one at -130 Cleveland and even though there’s not much value, there’s enough for me to make a play here.
Rob Veno
Baltimore at Minnesota
Play: Under 8.5
Start number three for Twins highly touted righty Jose Berrios comes against his toughest offensive opponent to date. Baltimore is one of only four teams in MLB to have an OPS of over .800 against RH pitching this season (.811). For Berrios, the matchup on paper appears even more difficult because through his first two starts, his weaknesses have been walks and home runs allowed. However, there are a couple reasons to believe tonight’s start could be a solid one including the fact that he made significant improvement from start #1 to start #2. In his initial outing he was staked to a 3-0 1st inning lead against Cleveland but Berrios gave a pair of runs back in the 3rd and did not record an out in the fifth allowing a walk, single and double. He recorded a game WHIP of 2.00, ERA of 11.25 and threw 23.25 pitches per inning. Those numbers all came down significantly in his next start last Monday at Houston. In 5 1/3 innings, Berrios used his mid-90’s fastball and devastating curve to strikeout eight while allowing just three hits and two runs. His PPI came down to 18.01, WHIP to 1.50 and ERA to 3.38 for his first win. However, a pair of solo HR’s and five walks prevented him from going 6 innings. Baltimore has a ton of power and their plate discipline is pretty good so Berrios will have to be sharp. His counterpart tonight is righty Tyler Wilson who is making his fourth start of the season and is off of a quality start versus the Yankees. Wilson’s 90 MPH average fastball velocity isn’t in the same league as Berrios but his control has been good as has his 30% flyball rate over the last three starts. With windy conditions (14-16 MPH) blowing straight in for tonight’s contest, each pitcher will have help avoiding the long ball. The back end of the game is never really a question for the strong and deep Orioles bullpen and Minnesota has their key late innings arms available tonight as well. Expect this one to be well pitched and weather aided which leads toward a play on the under
Andy Iskoe
Toronto -120
Until further notice San Francisco's Jake Peavy remains on the "Play Against" list. Although the Giants are 'just' 2-4 in his 6 starts Peavy's performance has been horrible. Averaging just 4.8 Innings per Start Peavy has compiled a 9,00 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. It is worth noting -- and not totally surprising -- that all 6 of his starts have gone OVER the Total. Young Aaron Sanchez continues to show the talent and progress that marked him as a top prospect several years ago. In his 6 starts this season, averaging 6.4 IPS, Sanchez has fashioned a 2.82 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Their records are almost identical (Giants 17-16, Blue Jays 16-17) Toronto is plus 11 in runs differential whereas the Giants are just plus 1. Surprisingly, perhaps, the Giants have outscored the Blue Jays 161 to 134. But Toronto has an even bigger edge in runs allowed (123 vs 160) is one of 3 teams with my highest bullpen ratings (along with the Cubs and the White Sox). Given the difference in the starting pitching and Toronto's bullpen edge laying the modest price with the Blue Jays is justified.
Bruce Marshall
Warriors / Blazers Over 215.5
Steph Curry's status remains up in the air as of Monday morning. Whether he plays or not, however, the preference is Portland, which is showing no fear of the Warriors and has in fact played Golden State to the hilt in all but two of the first twelve quarters in this series. Even if Curry plays, he is likely rusty, and not sure how much he helps on defense vs. the Blazers' Damian Lillard, who went off for another 40 in the Game Three win. These teams have played at a brisk pace all season, and Curry or not, can exceed the "total" tonight.