SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +211 over WASHINGTON
OT included. All the experts were right. They said the Capitals couldn’t lose this series and that the Maple Leafs might win one game back at the Air Canada Center. Most predicted a sweep or the Capitals in five. After Game 1, the consensus now is that the Caps were “tight” and just overcame a shaky start. The consensus now is that after scoring that first goal to make it 2-1, Washington loosened up and took control of the game. Really? What we saw were the Caps scoring their first goal with a two-man advantage (technically a one-man advantage) as the first penalty just expired. The Caps next two goals were of the weak variety that Fredrick Andersen misplayed both on. While Andersen made some tremendous saves, two of the three goals were soft and when that happens, it’s difficult to win. This game was decided not by the Capitals controlling anything but by Braden Holtby’s superior goaltending.
The Maple Leafs had 14 high danger scoring chances to the Caps 13. The Maple Leafs also held a 51.85% to 48.15% High Danger Corsi For advantage. Toronto held a significant edge in the first two periods in puck possession and scoring chances. The point is that the Maple Leafs were not outclassed in Game 1 and they are not widely outclassed in this series either. Toronto now has that one playoff game under their belt and at the very least, that near win in Game 1 had to boost their confidence. Toronto was not intimidated one bit. They went out and embraced their heavy underdog role and they may even be better in Game 2. These are very talented kids that are not playing for themselves but for each other and they’re having fun doing so.
We stated in our series analysis that the Leafs balanced attack gives them a chance. Every game in every series so far has been so close. Eight of the 12 games in the 2017 playoffs so far have been decided by one goal while three others have been decided by two goals. Only one game has been decided by more than two goals and that occurred last night when the Penguins beat the Jackets 4-1 in another misleading score in Pittsburgh’s favor. The point is that there is very little that separates the top seeds from the bottom seeds and everything in between. Every single game thus far in the playoffs could have easily gone the other way, as it is just a matter of which teams’ got the bounces and which did not. Up 2-0 in the second, Toronto’s Michael Nylander took a wicked shot that rang off the post. Had that gone in, Toronto would’ve been up 3-0 and the “experts” would be discussing a fragile Capitals team here and not one that “can’t” lose. What we’ve learned so far in this year’s playoffs is these underdogs are live and they’re capable and the Maple Leafs are no exception.
Calgary +141 over ANAHEIM
OT included. Had the Calgary Flames not spent so much time being stupid, they would likely be up 1-0 in this series but sometimes one thing sets up another. Take baseball for instance, a pitcher may throw a high fastball to set up his next pitch, a low slider on the outside corner. The Calgary Flames seemed intent to send a message to the Ducks that they were not going to be pushed around in this series and it might have worked. The Flames were clearly the better five-on-five team the entire game but it’s difficult to win when you spend 14 minutes killing penalties. The good news is that is not who the Flames are.
Calgary prides itself on discipline. They practice it. Coach Glen Gulutzan is one of two coaches in the NHL that spends time during every practice on staying on-side. The other coach that utilizes that in every practice is Pittsburgh’s coach, Mike Sullivan. The other important statistic is that the Flames penalty minute differential this season was 4th best in the entire league. The Flames practice discipline in every aspect of the game and even in Game 1, they had five PP opportunities but only capitalized once. We can almost guarantee that the Flames will play their typical disciplined style the rest of this series including this one here.
The Ducks are still going to be tough to beat but one has to give the Flames a better chance of winning than this number suggests. Brian Elliott was rock solid while John Gibson looked like he was fighting the puck early and giving up big rebounds. The Flames missed many opportunities to put the puck in the net on said rebounds but normally they bury those. The loss of Cam Fowler on the Ducks defense may be a bigger issue than we originally thought too. Once again we’ll reiterate that so much of these games come down to bounces and/or a deflection or two. Call it puck luck or whatever you want but what we know for sure is that the Flames can skate with the Ducks and they can compete and it’s for that reason that this live dog must be played.
SPORTS WAGERS
Series - Milwaukee +320 over TORONTO
Home court advantage will be a heavy variable in this series, as both Milwaukee and Toronto enjoy a competitive edge in their respective arenas. The home team in this matchup went 3-0 SU and ATS this season. With the swing game of this series going to the Great White North, the assumption here is that the Raps will advance by virtue of this narrative even if the Bucks make this series interesting but we’re not so sure.
The Toronto Raptors finished as the runner-up for the Atlantic Division crown behind fellow playoff and #1 seed, the Boston Celtics. However, enjoying supremacy in the Atlantic is not saying much, as they feature three constituents that are among the worst in the NBA. The Brooklyn Nets finished with the worst record in the East at 20-62 while finishing with just seven wins on the road. Philadelphia and New York finished 14th and 12th in the conference standings, respectively. The Raptors have taken advantage of bottom-feeders all season long, which is a far contrast to the docket the Bucks had to endure by playing in arguably the deepest division in the NBA, the Central Division.
The quality test must be taken into consideration here. The Bucks were tasked with playing the defending champions Cleveland Cavaliers, the Indiana Pacers and the Chicago Bulls to comprise 12 of their 16 divisional contests. The final member of this division, Detroit was in the playoff discussion up until a few weeks ago where they skidded out of contention. Despite the rugged itinerary, the Bucks finished 10-6 in this division and have some impressive wins to bolster their resume, including a sweep of Western Conference powerhouse Los Angeles Clippers, a road win at the #2 seed in the West, San Antonio, dominant performances at home against the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies and a road win at the top dog of the East, Boston. The Deers feature a stud at small forward in Giannis Antetokuonmpo who made an appearance at the NBA All-Star game, finishing with a breakout campaign (22.9 PPG, 5.4 APG, 8.7 RPG, 1.6 steals per game and 1.9 blocks per game) that was nothing less than stunning. Antetokounmpo earned the distinction of being the first player in NBA history to finish in the top-20 in total points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. In addition to “The Greek Freak” being a force to reckon with on the hardwood, the Bucks are one of the most efficient shooting teams in the league (4th overall) at 47.4% and this is the perfect complement for the dynamic duo of Toronto guards Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan who comprise the scoring operations for this Raptors team that boast top-10 numbers defensively in rebounding, opponent field goal percentage and scoring. But again much of this could be overstated given who the Raptors play on a regular basis. The post-season resume of the 2015-16 Raptors alone is selling this outfit in itself but the Bucks are a very dangerous team if left unabated. There is some excellent value in this club and they have the full capability not only to win this series but to be a threat in the East for any team they come across. The Bucks are being undersold here and we’re on it.
Series - Oklahoma City +319 over HOUSTON
The focal point of this series is all about the epic clash of MVP candidates, as Russell Westbrook and James Harden will duel it out in what will likely be an offense-oriented affair. It would be cliché but it would also be appropriate to sing the praises of Westbrook for a moment. Westbrook led the league with 31.6 points per game while also compiling an incredible 10.4 assists per game and 10.7 boards per game in what averages out to a triple-double on a nightly basis. What is even more remarkable about this daily fantasy powerhouse is the fact he crafted this virtuoso campaign with spit-wad and shoe-shine in what some analysts perceived to be an apocalyptic post-Kevin Durant era in Oklahoma City. Westbrook was complemented by an outfit of personnel that collectively shot dead last in three-point efficiency on the season, comprised of the likes of Steven Adams, Taj Gibson and Kyle Singler. Even the addition of shooter Victor Oladipo could not catalyze anything from downtown. Despite the drop-off in prowess, the Thunder found ways to win on Westbrook’s back and an uptick in defensive presence to start off their 2016-17 efforts. Most importantly, the Thunder became a physical bunch in the paint and are likely the best rebounding team in the NBA at this point despite being characterized as a traditionally-finesse team. Oklahoma City reinvented their game and transformed itself overnight. It paid dividends with Westbrook taking his talents to insane levels.
On the year, the Rockets have defeated this Thunder team in three of the four occasions. The Rockets main weapon is James Harden but he’s not the only toy that Clutch City has in its arsenal. The Rockets picked up Eric Gordon and “Sweet” Lou Williams in the off-season to bolster a very dangerous second-ranked scoring offense (115.2 points per game). Harden in particular revamped his game, as he became more of a facilitator despite being a sure-fire scorer and thus, the Rockets achieved lift-off in 2016 after what had to be classed as a lackluster 2015-16 effort. Houston cruised into a #3 seed and given their demonstrated ability to light up scoreboards, a popular belief is they will essentially have their way in this series if they can curtail Westbrook somehow. That is indeed a big if.
Houston’s defense has always been its Achilles heel, which is our focus here for getting behind the sixth seeded Thunder. The Rockets are ranked 26th in scoring defense while allowing opponents to shoot 46.3% from the field. Bottom line is that Houston lives and dies by their offense and often teams of this nature are just a cold-night away from taking a very long bath. Not only can Houston lose these shootout games by hitting a skid at the wrong time, they can tumble right out of the playoffs early if they can’t keep up with Westbrook and his merry men who will be sure to take advantage of their accommodating defense. Sound defensive teams with good structure win playoff series while one-dimensional teams that try and outscore everyone win regular season games. The Thunder may not pull this upset off but they have the horses to do so and we’ll gladly take our chances against a weak defense at better than 3-1 odds.
Nelly
Pacers / Cavs Under 208.5
These teams met just two weeks ago in a regular season test that seemed important at the time as the Cavaliers were seeking to hold the top spot in the Eastern Conference while the Pacers were just trying to make the field after a late season slide left them in jeopardy of missing out. Two overtimes were required as the Cavaliers held on for a 135-130 win. 208 points were scored in regulation with both teams shooting well at over 45 percent including nearly 50 percent for the hosting Cavaliers. 34 3-points shots were made and 53 free throw attempts were handed out. On the 5-game winning streak to close the regular season the Pacers allowed just over 97 points per game on average and getting involved in an up-tempo contest against Cleveland is likely not Indiana's best path to victory. After hearing about its defensive liability a lot in recent weeks Cleveland should bring strong defensive focus to this matchup and both teams could struggle to hit their normal percentages in this playoff opener.
Bob Balfe
Diamondbacks +150
The Dodgers were very weak against left handed pitching last year and again so far this year have been below average. Arizona has pop in their bats so if they can get on the scoreboard they have a shot in this one. We are off to a hot start in baseball to start the year so today we make an aggressive push for a big moneyline play.
Harry Bondi
KANSAS CITY +110 over LA Angels
Bottom line here is that Angels starter Matt Shoemaker has a nasty home-road career split, recording a 4.71 ERA on the road and a 2.96 ERA at home. That makes the Halos a play against here today in a ballpark that Shoemaker has lost all three of his career starts while racking up a ridiculous 14.66 ERA. KC’s main problem thus far this season has been a leaky bullpen, but the relievers got a rest last night for the most part and all key arms will be ready to go tonight. Take the home dog!
Bruce Marshall
Pacers / Cavs Over 212.5
If there was a reason why Cleveland kicked away the top playoff seed in the East, it was mostly because of a shoddy defense that ranked among the NBA's worst since the All-Star break and hardly helped by midseason additions Kyle Korver and Deron Williams. The Pacers and Cavs played games with scorelines like 132-117 and 135-130 this season and should clear this 212 1/2 at the "Q" on Saturday.
Wunderdog
Memphis vs. San Antonio
Pick: 1st Half Under 96.5
This series is going to be quite the challenge for Memphis, as they have been swept by the Spurs in their last two playoff series, including a 4-0 whitewashing last season. The biggest issue for Memphis is the offense, as the Spurs have always kicked it up a notch on the defensive end in the playoffs. These teams have met 18 times in the playoffs, and the Grizzlies have averaged a paltry 88.6 points per game. Perhaps more eye-opening than that is their first half performance that has left them at 42.2 ppg in the 18 contests. Moreover, the Grizzlies facing the Spurs in San Antonio have averaged just 83.2 ppg in nine contests, and have been limited to a woeful 37.8 ppg in the first half of those nine games. San Antonio has managed just 47 ppg in the first half of those games, and the first half total for this one appears to be way overdone.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals +108
I like the price we are getting on the Kansas City Royals tonight as home underdogs to the Los Angeles Angels. The Royals have won two straight while outscoring the opposition 10-2 in the process. Nate Karns gave up just 1 earned run in 5 2/3 innings at Houston in his first start this season. Matt Shoemaker sports a 7.72 ERA in 2 starts while giving up 8 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings against the A's and Mariners. Shoemaker has never beaten the Royals, going 0-3 with an 8.34 ERA in 5 lifetime starts against them. The Angels are 0-5 in those 5 starts.
Black Widow
Los Angeles Clippers -5.5
Bets against any team (Utah) after two straight wins by 6 points or less against an opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 94-51 ATS over the last five seasons. The Clippers have won 18 of their last 20 meetings with the Jazz. Expect that dominance to continue Saturday.
The Real Animal
San Antonio -5.5 1st Half
I’m always reluctant to lay meaningful points with a low total. The Spurs are -9 ½ at the time of this analysis with a total of 190. I think Memphis is a bad team this year and it got worse in the past week with the loss of Tony Allen, who was scheduled to guard Kawhi Leonard. Allen is perhaps the toughest defender in the league and has been for years. All Leonard does every year is improve on his game dramatically and at 27.6 points per game, he’s become a top-five player in this league. When Danny Green is your seventh best point-producer it’s official, the Spurs are a very deep team. The Spurs should really be focused and hungry after losing to Oklahoma City in the second round last year in six games after leading 2-1 in that series. But in the first round the Spurs easily disposed of the Grizzlies in four straight winning the first two in blowout fashion on this floor 106-74 in game #1 and 94-68 in game #2. Memphis just does not match up well here because while they are a solid defensive club, the Spurs are #1 in points allowed. One of tonight’s referees is Marc Davis. The Spurs are 9-1 straight-up in the last 10 officiated by Davis while Memphis is 1-4 straight-up in their last five when he has the whistle. I like the Spurs here -5 ½ in the first half.