Teddy Covers
Boston vs. Atlanta
Play: Boston +5½
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Something pretty remarkable happened on Wednesday Night, in Game #82 of the regular season. It got overshadowed by Kobe Bryant’s 60 point outing in his final career game, leading the Lakers to a last minute come-from-behind win over Utah. It got overshadowed by the Warriors winning #73, finishing with the best regular season record in NBA history. But make no mistake about it – it was meaningful!
The Boston Celtics defense stunk for a good portion of the last two months. Since the All Star Break, Boston’s D has gone from allowing 99.6 points per 100 possessions up to 104.7 pp/100. Over their previous eight games, they ranked #19 in the NBA, allowing more than 106 pp/100. In the first half of Game #82 against Miami, the Celtics defense got lit up once again. Miami led 62-38 at halftime, on their way to an easy blowout win over Boston.
But something funny happened on the way to that easy win – the Celtics started playing defense at a level we haven’t seen from them for months. The Heat hit their first shot of the third quarter, then proceeded to go 1-19 the rest of the quarter, unable to find anything resembling an open look. Boston’s defensive intensity was every bit as strong in the fourth. Miami managed only 26 second half points and their 24 point halftime lead turned into a ten point defeat.
Let’s not forget that despite missing Jae Crowder for nearly a month, the Celtics finished the season ranked #1 in forced turnovers on defense and their season long defensive numbers still show a Top 10 ranking for defensive field goal percentage allowed. That’s bad news for a Hawks team that ranks among the NBA elites defensively, but a squad that has issues elsewhere that are likely to be an Achilles Heel in this Game 1 showdown.
The Hawks don’t get to the free throw line, not a team loaded with offensive creators who take the ball to the hole. The Hawks are a very weak offensive rebounding team; bad news against the Celtics now that Kelly Olynyk is healthy again. And when Kyle Korver isn’t raining three’s, the Hawks are not anything close to an elite offensive team, ranked well below the league average in offensive efficiency this season. Expect a competitive game, right down to the final buzzer.
DAVE COKIN
BRAVES VS. MARLINS
PLAY: BRAVES +165
I’m going with what I consider line value here. The short version is that if Tom Koehler is -175 against anybody, there’s a good chance I’ll be on the anybody, as is the case today.
Bud Norris actually grades out slightly higher than Koehler on my pitching ratings. Not by a bundle to be sure, but the check mark nevertheless ends up on the Koehler side. That’s offset by a bullpen advantage on the Miami side, but again it’s not by a resounding margin.
As far as the offense is concerned, the Marlins are the better team but when factoring in the splits, it’s not a dominating advantage. The projections I give the most weight to, based on probable lineups, have the offenses close to even.
As far as intangibles go, I like the Braves a bit. They should feel great after finally getting off the schneid. Meanwhile, I’ll continue to afford the Marlins one of the least home field advantages in the game. And by the way, the fact they’re still winless at home so far this season isn’t a terrible thing as far as this bet is concerned.
The bottom line is that while Atlanta is obviously a bad baseball team, it’s not like the Marlins are crushing the competition thus far. And to repeat what I stated earlier, Koehler at -175 is just higher than it ought to be. If you believe in the concept of value being the key when ‘capping baseball, then the Braves have to be the side to play tonight.
Sleepyj
Giants +107
I will be glad to take Cueto here at a plus price...I have zero faith in Kazmir at all...I would be surprised if he didn't get shelled in this game..The total suggests he won't, but I don't trust him at all.....I won't get into stats because this is a pure fade on
Rob Vinciletti
Mets vs. Indians
Play: Mets -120
The Mets have a nice pitching advantage with Harvey over Tomlin today. NY is 17-5 as a road favorite off a road win where they scored 5 or more and 3-1 in day games. Cleveland is 2-11 as a home dog off a home loss if they scored 5+ runs. MLB Road favorites off a 1 run road dog win have won 83% of the time the last 12 seasons vs an opponent off a 1 run home favored loss if both teams scored 5+ runs and had 10 or more hits going back to 2004. Mets bats finally coming alive we will back them here today.
Stephen Nover
Angels vs. Twins
Play:Twins +102
After opening the season with nine consecutive losses, the Twins finally won a game. They beat the Angels, 5-4, on Friday. I see the Twins building on that victory with another win today against the Angels. Minnesota isn't as bad as it record may indicate having opened with six straight road games, including three against the world champion Royals.
First, note the early starting time. The Angels aren't used to playing at this time of day. The pitching matchup is Jered Weaver versus Ricky Nolasco.
I understand backing Nolasco is an adventure. But I'll take him as an underdog at home against the fading Weaver, who went 3-10 with a major-league worst 6.01 ERA on the road last season. Weaver is 33 and in the twilight of his career with his velocity well down.
The Angels have lost seven of Weaver's past nine road starts and are 1-4 the last five times he's pitched at Minnesota. The Twins have won six of Nolasco's last eight starts. Nolasco allowed just one run in seven innings in his first start this season against the Royals this past Sunday. The Twins have won the last four times Nolasco pitched on five day's rest.
The Twins' offense is due for an explosion. Weaver could be the catalyst for that as he surrendered 18 homers when pitching on the road last year.
Jeff Alexander
Mavs/Thunder Under 207
I believe the books have set the mark too high in this one. Teams really turn up the defensive intensity in the postseason and it takes some time for the public to catch on. As a result we get some great value on the total and this is a prime example. Since losing Parsons to a season ending injury, Dallas has changed up their style of play, which is why they ended up in the postseason. The Mavericks started focusing more on defense and playing at a slower tempo. In their last 9 games Dallas held all 9 opponents under 100 points and 5 of those under 90. Oklahoma City wasn't a great defensive team in the regular season, but they have the talent to be really good on that side of the ball. This game stays well below the mark.
Jack Jones
Mavs/Thunder Over 208
The books have set the bar too low for Game 1 of this series between the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder. These are two of the better offensive teams in the NBA as the Thunder rank 2nd in offensive efficiency while the Mavs rank 10th.
But both teams have struggled on the defensive end all season. They Thunder are only 12th in defensive efficiency, while the Mavs are 16th. This 208-point total is way too low, especially when you look at what these teams did against each other during the regular season.
Indeed, the OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams with combined scores of 219, 215, 197, 231, 266 and 234 points. That's an average of 227.0 combined points per game, which is 19 points more than tonight's posted total of 208.
The OVER is 6-1 in Mavs last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 7-2 in Mavs last nine games when playing on 2 days' rest. The OVER is 5-1 in Thunder last six conference quarterfinal games.
Scott Spreitzer
Anaheim at Minnesota
Play: Anaheim -107
The Angels looked on their way to their fifth straight win last night, while handing Minnesota their 10th straight loss to begin the season. The Halos led 4-2 going to the bottom of the 7th, and the way Minny has struggled at the plate this season, failing to top 3 runs in their first nine games, a 2-run, 7th inning lead looked pretty safe, especially with the Angels' pen performing well enough in Oakland. But the Twins tied it up in the bottom of the inning, and a .160 hitter (Byung Ho Park) drove in the game winning run in the 8th, helped by Craig Gentry's bobbling of the ball in left-field, allowing Trevor Plouffe to score. I expect a bounce back here for the AL West entry. Jered Weaver pitched a gem in his first start of the season and while his fastball only reached a high of 84 mph, it was certainly better than his spring training best of 80 mph. Weaver looked healthy and we believe he'll lead his team to the win column in this one. Minnesota will counter with Ricky Nolasco, but again, I don't expect the Twin bats to provide enough support. Nolasco has been horrible in daytime outings over the last three seasons, saddled with an ERA well north of 5.00, and he's posted a 4.89 ERA and a .295 BAA in his last 19 starts at Target Field. The Angels have captured 12 of the last 15 meetings, including seven of nine at Target Field.
Marc Lawrence
New York at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland +100
Edges - Indians: Josh Tomlin 4-1 last five overall home team starts; and 5-3 career team starts during April. Mets: Matt Harvey 4W’s and 5K’s this season, and 9 W’s and 9 K’s this spring. With Tomlin in super sharp from this spring with 17 K’s and 2 W’s, look for him to come up big in his first start this season here this afternoon. We recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Jim Feist
Orioles vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9
This is a great offensive park and two talented offenses clash here. Baltimore is Top 10 in baseball in runs scored and 6-1 over the total against a team with a winning record. Yovani Gallardo (5.40 ERA) has not thrown well for the Orioles, walking 4 in 10 innings. Gallardo has responded to a decline in his stuff by turning into a nibbler, with a fastball that averaged just 90.4 MPH last year. Texas is also Top 10 in runs scored and goes with Colby Lewis. He got to face the punchless Mariners in his first two starts, but last year had a 5.07 ERA at home. The Over is 39-15-3 in Lewis' last 57 home starts, plus 22-7-1 over at home when he faces a team with a winning record. Texas is also on a s 23-11-3 run over the total.
Dave Price
Houston Rockets +13
I was very impressed with the way the Houston Rockets closed out the regular season by winning each of their final 3 games all by 20-plus points and by an average of over 26 points per game. They showed some nice resiliency because they needed all 3 wins to make the playoffs. I think they could catch the Warriors off guard here in Game 1 and cover this 13-point spread. The Warriors are riding high after winning 73 games, the most in a single season in NBA history. That's why they could be primed for a letdown here. The Rockets have gone 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games when playing with 2 days of rest coming in. The Warriors have gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win by more than 10 points.
Matt Josephs
Braves vs. Marlins
Play: Over 7½
The Braves are on the board in terms of a victory and now look to start a win streak on Saturday. Bud Norris has allowed eight runs and 15 hits in 12 innings this season against the Nationals. Norris has a 6.18 ERA in five career outings against the Marlins although the last one came in 2012. Traditionally, he is a much worse pitcher on the road. Dee Gordon (2-6), Martin Prado (2-7) and Giancarlo Stanton (1-2) have had success against the veteran. The Marlins were averaging over six runs per game at night before Friday's loss. They've got a solid lineup to take advantage of mistakes. Both of these teams have bad bullpens. Tom Koehler is 2-4 with a 3.75 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Atlanta. He's a real mediocre pitcher who has had problems with Ender Inciarte (5-9), Nick Markakis (6-11) and AJ Pierzynski (7-15). Atlanta has played in six overs in their last eight games. Their offense isn't great, but I think they can put up a few in this one. I think it goes over the total.
Bob Harvey
Rockets vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -13
The Golden State Warriors begin their quest for a second consecutive NBA title when they host the Houston Rockets in Game 1 of their opening round series. Golden State won all three regular-season meetings with the Rockets after knocking them off in five games in the Western Conference finals one year ago.
Houston (41-41, 37-45 ATS) won its final three games by a total of 79 points, though the wins came against non-playoff teams in the Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings. The late season winning streak allowed them to overcome a two-game deficit to grab the eighth and final playoff spot.
Golden State (73-9, 45-35 ATS) picked up win No. 73 in the season finale on Wednesday to break the record set by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. Reigning MVP Stephen Curry led the way averaging 30.1 points per year while draining 402 three-pointers.
The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings while the road team is 6-2 vs. the number last eight.
The Warriors are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings and 14-5 vs. the number in their last 19 games against Southeast Conference competition.
The UNDER is 5-1 in Houston’s last six road games while the OVER is 5-1 in its last six games against the Pacific Division. Golden State is 4-0 to the OVER in its last four home games and 7-3 last 10 vs. the Southeast Conference.
Golden State is the first team in NBA history to go through an entire season without losing two straight.
Kyle Hunter
Mavs vs. Thunder
Play: Mavs +12
The Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly the much better team here, but this is a massive NBA playoffs line. Dallas' backcourt is banged up, but the veterans are going to play through injuries here in the playoffs.
I certainly think Oklahoma City is going to win this game, but the point spread is a great equalizer. While Dallas' upside isn't all that high, the Mavericks do have a penchant for playing hard for Rick Carlisle. Additionally, there's no doubt that Oklahoma City is a team that is very inconsistent.
Dallas is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Dallas is also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games in Oklahoma City. Grab the points.
Martin Griffiths
SOGNDAL IL vs. Stromsgodset
Play: Over 2½
Stromsgodset are very strong favourites to win this game but it would be a mistake to dismiss Sogndal too quickly.
Sogndal have surprised me a little this season, they are one of the favourites to be relegated, however they have got off to a decent start and after losing their first game of the season they have since gone unbeaten, winning twice and drawing one, not bad for a team not expected to do well this season.
Stromsgodset are not expected to be challenging for the title this season, but they are expected to be closer to the top than the bottom, they have had a stuttering start, winning just the once from their opening four games, losing twice and drawing one, they would have hoped for a better start.
Stromsgodset should win this game in all fairness, but it may not be as easy as they would have thought before the season started, they would have pencilled this in as a guaranteed home win, they can no longer do that, they will find that Sogndal can be a hard team to beat.
That said, I do see goals in this game, my reasoning is fairly simple, I see Stromsgodset winning, but fancy Sogndal to get at least one goal themselves.
All things considered including their respective starts to the season, I see this game being over 2.5 goals.