Will Rogers
Dallas vs. Oklahoma City
Play:Oklahoma City -11½
The Dallas Mavericks had to play their butts off to get into the playoffs, and they really did a great job on defense in the last few weeks. I expect the Mavs to experience a bit of a let down here in Game 1 in Oklahoma City, and the Thunder's high flying offense should prove to be far too much for the Mavs to handle. My money is on the Thunder to win big in Game 1.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - Oklahoma City has won the last four meetings, scoring an average of 112.5 points in those games. They won the most recent meeting by a whopping 13 points, and that was in Dallas.
2. Too Much Westbrook - Russell Westbrook simply can not be stopped. He dominated the season series, averaging 23.7 points, 10.3 assists and 6.7 rebounds in the three (full) games he played against Dallas.
3. X-Factor - The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Zack Cimini
Houston vs. Golden State
Pick: Houston
After the Warriors record breaking win over the Grizzlies one would be foolish to not anticipate a baiting point spread to start the playoffs. We have it with a spread of 13.5. During three regular season match ups the Warriors swept the Rockets by an average of 12.3 points per game. Yet, the Rockets are a team that took awhile to adjust to interim Coach Bickerstaff as they transformed from fired Coach McHale. Keep in mind this is the same Rockets team that went to the Western Conference Finals against the Warriors just a season ago. The first two games of that series were close as the Warriors won by four points and a single digit in the other. Also, nine players return on both sides from last year's matchup. The familiarity is key here as the Rockets should continue to showcase the end of season flair in game one against the Warriors. 13.5 is too steep.
MMA OddsBreaker
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by KO/TKO prop (+265)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos is a very powerful striker, owning 11 knockouts in 14 career wins. He definitely has more than enough wallop to not only beat Omari Akhmedov but put him out. Akhmedov is a good fighter but his chin betrayed him in his last bout against Sergio Moraes. Moraes is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu player but Akhmedov was caught by a big punch and put out. If Moraes can knock out Akhmedov, then Zaleski should be able to nearly blast his head into the first row.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Toronto at Boston
Play: Under 8
There are some 8.5 -130 out there as I type this. A fairly strong wind is blowing in at Fenway today. We also have a home plate umpire in Angel Hernandez who shows a bias to the Under, and owns one of the lowest walk percentages of all MLB umpires. Boston's David Price is in a bounce-back spot after getting lit up by Baltimore (who hasn't?), and he has allowed two earned runs or less in 11 of 12 career home starts against Toronto. The Jays' Marco Estrada tossed seven shutout innings against these Red Sox in his season debut.
SPORTS WAGERS
Series Bet - Boston +147 over ATLANTA
The Boston Celtics feature a robust array of young and talented players that are capable of a deep run into the playoff tournament. While all the focus has shifted to the top-seed Cleveland Cavaliers and their star-studded starting five anchored by LeBron James, the Celtics have all the tools to threaten many teams in the post-season and vie for the conference outright.
Boston owns wins over both Cleveland and Golden State on the road this year, a feat that no other team in the NBA has been able to pull off. The Celtics enter the playoffs as a five-seed and runner up to the Toronto Raptors for the Atlantic Division title. Boston is one of the most improved teams in the NBA, as they were swept in the first round last year by the Cavs, which figures to have served them well entering this year's playoffs. When firing on all cylinders, Boston’s offense can be a difficult puzzle to solve for virtually any opponent. Led by a truly gifted point guard in Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics average 105.7 points per game and they are also a rebound factory, scooping up 44.6 boards on offense per game. The Celtics are also one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the league and are very good at throwing off the shooting abilities of their opponents. The Celts are among the best at defending the three, which is terrible news for the Atlanta Hawks, who rely on their sniper Kyle Korver from downtown. Korver was instrumental in Atlanta’s playoff run last year.
Atlanta’s defense statistically is better than Boston’s and there is not a team in the league that is better than Atlanta in lowering a team’s field goal percentage. However, the Hawks place towards the bottom of the pack in rebound production, which affords opponents more chances to score. As we have highlighted previously, the Celtics are very good at creating second and third chances and while much of the basketball world marvels in forward Paul Millsap and center Al Horford, the presence of Jared Sullinger and Amir Johnson can be a disruptive force for Atlanta’s front-court operations. The edge in experience goes to the Hawks but in this case it may actually play against them. Atlanta’s most recent playoff memory was a bitter pill to swallow. The Hawks were ousted from the playoffs last year in the Eastern Conference Finals against the then #2 Cleveland Cavaliers. Atlanta did not fall gallantly, instead they were absolutely demolished and carted away in a four-game sweep. This wound may be reopened for many Hawks players who endured the decimation and a skeleton in their closet. By contrast, Boston has had an excellent season of charted progress and sky is the limit for this squad, as they have already risen above expectations. A series win for the C's would validate Brad Stevens as one of the league's best coaching minds and we're suggesting that is precisely what will happen here. Play the value.
Series Bet - Indiana +325 over TORONTO
The last time the Indiana Pacers entered the post-season, they were the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference in 2014. Indiana features a strikingly similar brand of basketball that catapulted them to the front of the Eastern Conference in the 2014-15 season. The Pacers are rugged, physical, methodical and stout on defense, but they now sport perhaps a better ensemble of players than they did in their last trip to the NBA Playoffs.
The prodigal son, small forward Paul George has returned from rehabilitation from a heinous injury he suffered during a USA National Team scrimmage back in 2014. The result of George’s injuries were catastrophic for the Pacers in the 2014-15 season but he has since came back to the NBA with a bang, emerging as the Pacers’ leading scorer, averaging an excellent 23.1 points per game. George sat the season finale, resting in preparation for the post-season activities that await but he is not the only tool in the Pacers’ chest. The Pacers are complemented by an always efficient three-point triggerman in Monta Ellis. The addition of point man Ty Lawson and reliance on super sub Rodney Stuckey makes this squad deep and extremely dangerous. In addition, the Pacers match-up perfectly against the Raptors, as they are specialists in defending the three, while the Raptors specialize in shooting the three. Historically in the post-season, teams that live by the three, also die by the three so once again the edge lies with Indiana in this capacity.
Outside of the traits that favor Indiana’s game plan, the Raps may also be quite overrated. Toronto won 56 games, but the Raptors acquired most of those wins by beating up on lowly teams like Brooklyn, New York and Philadelphia within the Atlantic Division all-year long. While Toronto has beaten some of the best in the NBA, almost all of these results were attained in Toronto exclusively. On the road it was a different story, as the Raps were routed by the very teams they beat at home. Quality of competition will likely be a determining factor in this series, as the Pacers have had to fend off teams like Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago on a regular basis and two of their fellow Central Division constituents have qualified for the playoffs alongside Indiana (Cleveland and Detroit). Furthermore, we would be remiss to mention that Toronto has a history of choking in the post-season. Despite having one of the best duo of guards in the NBA in point guard Kyle Lowry and DeMar Derozan, the Raptors recent blunders in the post-season compel us to fade them. In 2014, the Raptors with home-court advantage fell in seven to the aging Brooklyn Nets. In 2015, the Raptors would once again disappoint in the first round by being swept by Washington in four straight as a 2-1 favorite. Once again, Toronto enters with all the tools and variables resting in their favor but they are going up against a basketball team that is clearly undervalued. Lastly, this is the NBA, where ratings mean money and money means everything. Don’t expect Toronto to get many calls in their favor, especially on the road and so Indiana may only need one road victory to dispose of this perennial post-season disaster.
Larry Ness
Giants vs. Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
Johnny Cueto allowed FIVE first-inning runs Sunday against the Dodgers but just one over the next six, before leaving a wild 9-6 victory. "It's part of the game," Cueto told MLB's official website. "My teammates said, 'Just keep the game at 5-0 and we'll take care of the rest.' And that's exactly what I did." He yielded 10 hits, two walks and overcame a sore knee and back suffered while backing up home plate. "For him to go seven innings tells you a couple of things," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. "It tells you how tough he is. And he's a pro." Cueto (2-0, 4.50 ERA) looks to join Chicago’s Chris Sale with three 2016 wins tonight, as the Giants look to bounce back in LA after Kershaw bested Bumgarner 7-3 last night.
Taking the hill for LA will be Scott Kazmir, who also faced Cueto last Sunday in San Francisco. The lefty was staked to that 5-0 first-inning lead but gave it all back by allowing six runs on seven hits (including three HRs!) in just four innings. "I just didn't get it done," Kazmir said. "There were pitches where if I would have made it, it would have been a different situation. But it was those pitches that were right in their wheelhouse, something that they could really handle, and they made me pay." That effort was a far cry from Kazmir’s Dodgers April 5 debut against San Diego, when tossed six scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory. Kazmir is in his first season with the Dodgers after making 31 combined starts with a 3.10 ERA for Oakland and Houston last year.
The Dodgers were strong at home vs right-handed starters last year going 40-17, including 32-13 at night. In contrast, the Giants were just 6-11 vs lefties in road night games in 2015, averaging a modest 3.7 RPG. Kazmir gets some revenge from blowing that 5-0 lead last Sunday.
Power Sports
San Jose vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles
Though I was on the Sharks (+126 on the money line!) in Gm 1, I have a hard time believing that they're going to take both games here at the Staples Center. In my Gm 1 analysis, I spoke glowingly of San Jose's league-best road record, but one thing I neglected to point out is how they've been outshot in those games.
Game 1 was "more of the same" as the Kings held the 24-23 edge in shots. I just cannot envision Jonathan Quick giving up four goals on that few shot attempts again. The Kings were of course the best puck possession team in the league during the regular season - ranking #1 in both Corsi and Fenwick - and are 13-7 this year if their opponent scored four or more goals in the last game. They twice had a one-goal lead in Game 1, only to give it away. This is a team that simply does not allow many shot attempts plus they are 26-13-3 at home this year.
San Jose's Martin Jones only needed to make 19 saves to win his playoff debut. Clearly, he is the bigger question mark in this series compared to the guy he used to back up in Los Angeles, Quick. I think that it's just shocking how the Sharks have come in and won all three times they've played at Staples Center this season and that they've been able to win so many times on the road over the course of the season while being outshot. Meanwhile, the Kings were #1 in the league during the regular season in even strength goals allowed in regulation. Look for this series to be tied up going to back to San Jose.
Tony George
Cardinals -146
Off a 14-3 destruction of the sliding Reds, the Cards send ace Wainwright to the hill today. Anytime I can get Wainwright at home under -150 it is worth the stretch. Cards bats are hot, Wainwright holds the Reds at bay. Slightly chalky but worth the stretch.
Tony Karpinski
Rockets vs. Warriors
Play: Rockets +13½
James Harden is a guy who can get out and make the Warriors pay in the transition game. Houston has plenty of skilled players to do damage here, and they will. Houston is not a great team, by any means, but they scored at will in the series during the season, which shows you something important. They will just need to tighten up the D slightly.
Draymond Green tends to get into foul trouble, which obviously takes away from his excellent style of strength and power. Green is capable of putting up 15-20 for Golden State, but I don't trust him to stay off the bench, and stay on the court enough in this opener, with his foul woes. The Rockets will make him mindful in his game.Rockets are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 2 days rest
Houston covers this large number on Saturday afternoon.
John Ryan
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 56-22 mark good fort 72% winners since 2010 and has made 34 units/unit wagered. Play on any team (LA DODGERS) team that had a good record last season (54% to 62%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 54%). The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SF is a money burning 9-28 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points Kazmir is a veteran starter, who has adjusted his arsenal over his career. He threw sinker, change, and slider in the early part of his career and then added a curve and cutter in 2013. His fastball peaked at 92-93
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors, who open defense of their title after breaking the all-time season win total, in their final game. They won their last four games impressively, making a statement that they are coming for another title.
Golden State does not even want the Rockets sniffing a close game, and will keep them at arm's length. Just late last month the Rockets were clinging to a playoff spot in the Western Conference as four teams battled for the final three slots.
The Rockets earned their berth on the final day of the regular season. I don't believe they can hang with Golden State in Game 1, and will lay the points.
5* WARRIORS
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 43-28 run with complimentary plays: Cincinnati at ST. LOUIS (-1', +135)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals continue their division rivalry tonight, at Busch Stadium, and I'm looking at the Redbirds to score the big run line win rather easily. St. Louis has the better team overall, it has the better offense, the better rotation and the better bullpen. The Cardinals won't even flinch in this one.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Pure mismatch is the factor. The Reds arrived in St. Louis after enduring a three-game sweep at the Chicago Cubs, as they were outscored 22-6. And they came in here after barely avoiding their first shutout this season in an 8-1 defeat Thursday night. Plus, after last night's series-opening win, the Cardinals have won 19 of their past 24 home games against Cincinnati and went 7-2 there in last season's series.
BOTTOM LINE is - Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team.
5* CARDINALS -1.5
Brad Wilton
They got the record, and now the Warriors will look to defend their title.
Not sure if the double-digit impost is too much "wiggle-room" for the Rockets to sneak inside the back-door, but I am sure we are going to see some points on the Oracle Arena scoreboard.
Houston averaged 122.5 points per game over their final 4 regular season contests, with 3 of the 4 playing Over the total. The Rockets were good for at least 100 points or better in 20 of their final 23 games on the season, and the Over did cash in 4 of their last 6 games entering play today.
Golden State is well...Golden State, and we all know how proficient they are from beyond the arc.
The Warriors went Over the total in 4 of their final 6 games, and the last pair of series meetings with the Rockets this year also went Over the total.
Throw in the last 4 games Golden State played in front of the home crowd having found the Over column, and I will take my chances with a play on the Over in this opener of their best-of-seven set.
2* HOUSTON-GOLDEN STATE OVER
Chris Jordan
My free pick is out of the NBA, as I like the Boston Celtics to surprise the Atlanta Hawks in their opening round series. The Celtics are the No. 5 seed, but I think are just as good as fourth-seeded Atlanta, which won the regular-season series, 3-1. But they played thrice in 2015. The only recent game was on April 9, in Atlanta, and won by the Hawks.
Fact is, though, this series should be very closely contested. They're both 48-34 and they both have learned how to win. We're talking about a pair of hard-nosed defensive teams that feature a handful of under-the-radar stars, including Boston’s Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder.
But what I have this coming down to is coaching. I give the nod to Brad Stevens over Mike Budenholzer. Both are highly respected coaches, but I've been bragging about Stevens all season. He knows how to make adjustments, and does a good job in finding ways to score against difficult defenses.
Make note, despite losing three of four meetings, Boston led for the majority of the teams’ meeting in Atlanta just last week, and simply ran out of gas in the fourth quarter. Look for Boston to be strong in this series, and expect its depth to play a big role.
Celtics win in 6.
5* CELTICS Series
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Over in Dallas and Oklahoma City.
Going to keep this short and sweet, Dallas has split their last 4 games in the Over/Under column, while Oklahoma City stands at 6-3 Over the total in their last 9. Nothing extraordinary there really, but when you take a look at the series numbers, and the Thunder's numbers in playoff quarterfinal action, that is where the scales get tipped to the Over.
These teams played Over the total in 3 of their 4 meeting this season, and are now on a 7-2 Over run their last 9 meetings against each other.
The Over also stands at 5-1 for the Thunder in their last 6 quarterfinal contests, and is 4-1 as well when OKC plays teams with winning records.
Expect the points to flow tonight in Oklahoma City.
Mavs-Thunder to go Over the total.
3* DALLAS-OKLAHOMA CITY OVER