Neil theGreek
Mavs vs. Thunder
Play: Mavs +12
This just seems like way too many points to be giving a over achieving Dallas club. Yes, OKC can score with the best of them, but can they get stops when need be that's the real question. And for me the answer is no. I will not believe in this Oklahoma City team until they play defense and prove me wrong.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON +13 over Golden State
What a year the Golden State Warriors had! The best regular season EVER going 73-9 but now the pressure is on. It's a quick turnaround for Golden State and that helps Houston. These two battled for the Western Conference crown so they know each other well and as much as we respect the Warriors, double digits seems to much to lay here. Golden State was just 2-5 ATS as double digit favorites on their way to the NBA title last season and the get the win but not the cover again today.
Bob Balfe
Thunder -12
The Thunder dominated the season series 4-0 and I don’t see them slipping up today as Durant and Westbrook are healthy and playing very well. Dallas is not the same team they use to be. The Mavs are going to try to slow down this pace, but won’t be successful. Look for the Thunder to have this out to double digits by the half.
Mariners/Yankees Under 8
I have to give CC credit. This is a guy that went to rehab on the eve of the playoffs last year and has looked good to start this season. I hope for Sabathia’s sake he is focused and ready to live up to the talent we all know he has. We all know that Felix Hernandez is going to bring the heat today. This would be a great game for Sabathia if he can match the numbers Hernandez puts up today. I think we will see a vintage CC today in a playoff like performance. Pitching should be excellent from both sides.
Wunderdog
Indiana @ Toronto
Pick: Toronto -6.5
Toronto won three of the four meetings this season with Indiana, including 111-98 on April 8 when the Raptors rested four starters and the Pacers were battling for a playoff spot. The Raptors have a clear edge in the backcourt where DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry average a combined 44.7 points and 10.4 assists per game. Also, DeMarre Carroll is back after missing three months with an injury and center Jonas Valanciunas pulls down 9.1 rebounds per game. The Pacers won six of their last seven games, but only one of them was against a team with a winning record. Paul George leads Indiana with a 23.1 scoring average and the Pacers have an improved offense compared to the last few seasons, however, Toronto holds a slight defensive edge allowing 98.2 points per game compared to 100.5 for the Pacers. Toronto will be focused as it remembers last year's playoff debacle of getting swept by Washington in the first round.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose +131 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. After their victory in Game 1, the Sharks have now won all three games they've played at the Staples Center this season. Make no mistake about it; San Jose is not afraid of the Kings or their pedigree. Much of the narrative for Game 2 is that L.A. must win today. They can't lose two in a row at home. There's no way Jonathan Quick lets in four goals again. Everyone that bet the Kings in this series or in the first game will be lined up at the window to double down on that today because this market loves to play the home favorite in Game 2 after it lost Game 1. That’s an angle that has made Vegas millions. San Jose was thrown right into the fire in Game 1, finding itself down 1-0 early only to respond less than five minutes later with a goal of its own. Later in the game, the Sharkies gave up a shorty but they were resilient again when Tomas Hertl scored 30 seconds later to tie it. A clutch goal from Captain Joe Pavelski early in the third was the game winner. The Sharks had the best road record in the league this year and the fact that they overcame two deficits in Game 1 and a shorthanded goal to boot only adds to their appeal here.
Game 1 of this series was the most entertaining game of the playoffs so far. We could watch these guys go at it every night. These two teams match up very well with each other and it shows on the stat sheet, as they were nearly equal in shots (24-23 Kings), faceoffs (32-27 Sharks), hits (36-32 Kings), and each team scored on the power play in Game 1. When two teams are this evenly matched there's a ton of value in the dog. Nobody is looking to back a perennial playoff underachiever like the Sharks. In the eyes of some, San Jose is satisfied with their Game 1 victory and will go home at worst tied 1-1. We’re suggesting that they’re not even close to being satisfied. We’re suggesting that the Sharks are hungrier than ever and unlike years gone by, they now have strong coaching, a strong system and great goaltending. That gives them more confidence than ever and it’s the Kings, not the Sharks that are going to be concerned about making a mistake today. Although we have the Sharks to win the series, we are going to continue to back this squad whenever a price is being offered because there is too much value on them not to.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City +145 over OAKLAND
Chris Young is not a strong pitcher. However, this park is well-suited for his fly-ball ways. Young picked up 11 and 12 victories respectively over the past two seasons pitching half his games at Seattle’s Safeco Field and K.C’s Kaufmann Stadium. Young’s ability to induce weak contact continues to help him exceed expectations, but as a fly-ball pitcher with now-shaky command and middling raw stuff, Young's downside remains significant. Young is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA but that is the result of one start in Houston in which he was tagged for six runs in 4.2 frames. His other start was a good one at home against the Mets and he is very capable of giving the Royals five decent innings at this park. Young’s unsightly ERA after two starts inflates the price here but if the bullpens take over with the game tied or K.C. leading, we are suddenly in very good shape.
Enter Sonny Gray, a pitcher that bettors are very aware of but he’s also a pitcher that we’re suggesting is overrated and overpriced. Sonny Gray is considered to be a top of the rotation starter. After all, he has a top-prospect pedigree and returned excellent value in 2015. Before you lay a price with him, note that his overall skills were more good than excellent: 7.3 K’s/9, 2.6 BB/9, 53% groundballs. In fact, 57 starters had better skills in 2015 than Gray did and his skills dropped significantly from the first half to the second half. Gray’s skills are showing more regression this season. In 13 innings this season, Gray has walked seven batters and struck out 11. His first-pitch strike rate is just 56% and he’s now only striking out 20% of batters. Gray’s defense is shaky and that means more balls in play are subject to the variances that occur with balls in play. While Gray remains a very decent pitcher, there's a great chance of regression this year and so now would be the time to sell high on him. Sonny Gray is starting for a weak team.
Baltimore +105 over TEXAS
We’re on record as saying Yovanni Gallardo is nothing more than a hittable innings-eater and we absolutely stick to that position. However, Baltimore’s bullpen puts the Rangers bully to shame and Colby Lewis is just as bad, if not worse than Gallardo, which is the setup for this choice. Furthermore, the Orioles are second in the league in OPS and third in home runs so far, which also adds to their appeal as a small pup here.
Colby Lewis has made two starts so far and they both occurred against a Mariners team that is hitting .221 after 10 games. Lewis underwent Oct. 2015 left knee surgery to repair meniscus and was expected to be ready by spring training. He was and promptly got spanked to the tune of 26 hits and 17 runs allowed over 19 spring innings. Lewis’s only redeeming quality is that he can throw strikes and his swing and miss rate of 9% hints at league-average upside. However, an elevated fly-ball rate and HR combination is engrained and this park is very unforgiving to fly-ball types. Oh, and by the way, Lewis hasn’t seen league-average anything since 2012. Add it all up and things aren’t appealing. He’s an aging starter (37 this summer) who doesn’t throw hard (88 mph the past few years and 86.9 this year) and his relevancy as a starter is nearly non-existent.
Bruce Marshall
NY Rangers -158
Big news in this game for the Rangers is that GK Henrik Lundqvist is expected to be ready to play after being KO'd early due to a stick to the eye in Game One. New York was not the same with Antti Raanta between the pipes and has its best chance with Lundqvist, who allowed one or no goals in eight of his nine previous postseason games vs. Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Pens have their own injury problems and will likely have to start third-string goalie Jeff Zatkoff for a second straight game.
Ray Monohan
San Francisco Giants +106
The Giants continue their series with the Dodgers Saturday night and the visitors have solid value here. Johnny Cueto returned to the National League and has already gotten himself back on track after a bad stint with the Royals. After being dominant in his first start, he was knocked around by these Dodgers a bit but finished strong and grabbed a win.
He'll be going up against Scott Kazmir, who blew a 5 run lead against the Giants last time out. Kazmir is just not trustworthy enough against a good offense like San Francisco's.
Some trends to consider. Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, and are 12-4 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Dodgers are 4-10 in their last 14 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
At plus money, with a better pitcher, the Giants are worth a play. Look for Cueto to really work the strike zone and change up speeds.
Jimmy Boyd
Houston Astros -127
Houston is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Tigers. The Astros won 1-0 last night behind a dominant performance from their ace Dallas Keuchel. It was the first time Detroit failed to score at least 4 runs in a game. I look for Houston's Collin McHugh to follow up Keuchel's dominant performance with one of his one.
Last time McHugh took the mound, he tossed 7 scoreless innings in an 8-2 win at home over the Royals. He has a 2.57 ERA and 1.143 in two career starts against the Tigers. Detroit will counter with Justin Verlander, who is coming off a horrible start last time out. Verlander allowed 7 runs on 10 hits in just 4 1/3 innings at home against the Pirates.
Houston is 30-12 in their last 42 after a game where the bullpen allowed 0 runs or less and are 16-3 in their last 19 home games when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 games. They are also 40-19 in their last 59 after playing 3 or more consecutive home games.
Brandon Lee
Mets -124
Love the value here with the Mets as a small road favorite with Matt Harvey on the mound. Harvey is due for a dominant performance after a couple of sub-par outings by his standards. I'll take my chances on Harvey out performing the Indian's Josh Tomlin, who will be making his first start of the season. New York is 35-18 in their last 53 games during the day and 22-5 in their last 27 off a 1-run win.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -135
Chicago southpaw John Danks has been consistently bad since undergoing shoulder surgery in 2012. Specifically, Danks posted a 4.75 ERA and 5.06 FIP in 2013, a 4.74 ERA and 4.76 FIP in 2014 and a 4.71 ERA and 4.49 FIP last season. Danks' commenced the 2016 campaign with another poor outing, allowing seven runs on eight hits over five innings against Cleveland. In his lone start against Tampa Bay last year, Danks yielded five runs on eight hits in just 5 1/3-innings of work so the outlook is grim tonight for the 31-year-old hurler.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay right-hander Erasmo Ramirez is coming off a terrific season wherein he posted a 3.75 ERA and 3.76 FIP over 163.1 innings. The promising 25-year-old improved his command and control (2.20 BB/9), while also cutting down on the number of long balls allowed (0.88 HR/9). Ramirez is poised for a strong start to the 2016 campaign against a scuffling Chicago lineup that is averaging just 3.5 runs per game, including 3.4 runs per game on the road and 2.8 runs per game at night.
I also like the fact that Ramirez is supported by a very good Tampa Bay bullpen that boasts a 2.54 ERA and 0.98 WHIP this season, including a 1.23 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at night. From a technical standpoint, the White Sox are 9-24 in Danks' last 33 starts versus .499 or worse opposition, 1-5 in his last six road starts and 0-4 in his last four outings overall. With Chicago standing at 1-6 in Danks' last seven starts against Tampa Bay.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Toronto at Boston
Play: Under 8
There are some 8.5 -130 out there as I type this. A fairly strong wind is blowing in at Fenway today. We also have a home plate umpire in Angel Hernandez who shows a bias to the Under, and owns one of the lowest walk percentages of all MLB umpires.
Boston's David Price is in a bounce-back spot after getting lit up by Baltimore (who hasn't?), and he has allowed two earned runs or less in 11 of 12 career home starts against Toronto.
The Jays' Marco Estrada tossed seven shutout innings against these Red Sox in his season debut.
Boston's bullpen has been pretty solid. Toronto's pen has been mediocre, but not terrible.