Free Picks for Saturday, April 1st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
OREGON VS NORTH CAROLINA
PLAY: OREGON +5
I’ll be honest, if this was a regular season game I probably wouldn’t be getting involved. And in a regular season setting, I might well prefer UNC. But here I’ll take my chances with the Ducks. Two keys. One is the power rating. I make the Tar Heels -4.2, so there’s at least a slim edge for Oregon on the math. The other is Altman vs. Williams. Altman is worth one point in my opinion, as if this comes down to in-game adjustments, I prefer the Oregon coach. Very tough game to be sure, and I was hoping the square bucks might push this to 5.5 or 6, but that apparently will not happen. So I’ll take my shot with Oregon at +5.
Don’t go nuts. It’s just one game. From a wagering standpoint, you should treat these no differently than you would an Ohio Valley game on a Thursday night in February. Remember, the money doesn’t know if it’s a big game or not.
Scott Rickenbach
Anaheim at Edmonton
Play: Anaheim +113
Huge game in the Pacific Division race and I see value with the road dog in this one! Even though the Oilers are on a hot 8-1 run, the lone loss did come to a Ducks team that has given them a lot of trouble through the years. Anaheim has won 5 of its last 6 visits to Edmonton and the Ducks are in the perfect spot to invest in here. Anaheim is off of a loss and they haven't lost back to back games since early February. Not only that, the Ducks defeat came by a 4-3 margin and they have won 14 of 16 games this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more. The Oilers have lost 7 of 12 games this season when they enter on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, Edmonton has lost 73 of 109 games against teams with a winning record and that includes 17 of 30 this season! To put that in proper perspective, Anaheim has won 73 of 127 games against teams with a winning record. The Oilers have improved for sure (1st post-season appearance in 11 years) but the Ducks will be ready to prove the division is still theirs and I seem them improving to 15-2 when off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more as they are fired up after the 4-3 loss at Winnipeg.
Ray Monohan
South Carolina vs. Gonzaga
Play: South Carolina +7
This play just missed out on our premium card. The South Carolina Gamecocks try and continue their impressive run when they take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Final Four. Coming into the Tournament no one had any expectations for the Gamecocks and as they continued to win people still gave them no respect. They expected the next game would be the one they lost, and yet they continued to win, Well Vegas has again not given them any respect with the +7 line. They play too hard on defense to get blown out by any team.
Some trends to note. Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS in this NCAA Tournament. Gamecocks are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 neutral site games. Bulldogs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five tournament games. This is just too many points, South Carolina should be able to keep this one close.
Jim Feist
Stars vs. Hurricanes
Play: Stars +145
Dallas has speed on offense, and the Stars are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. the Metropolitan division. Carolina is #20 in goals scored, #22 on the power play and #16 in goals allowed. The Hurricanes are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. And the Stars are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings, 4-1 at Carolina.
Scott Spreitzer
Suns vs. Blazers
Play: Suns +12
Portland has gained plenty of attention thanks to their current run, including a big 117-107 win over Houston on Thursday. But they're now expected to win by margin and Phoenix has shown signs of competing of late. They've covered three of their last four games, including back-to-back contests, losing to the Clippers by six and the Hawks by four, covering both. Phoenix is playing a very young lineup, but that's a positive. Devin Booker even stated that while a lot of teams are shutting it down at the end of the season, the Suns are trying to get wins, stating, "We're trying to make a name for ourselves, so we're out here competing." The young guns are giving it their all, led by Booker, who has averaged nearly 40 ppg in their last four contests. Throw in the play of T.J. Warrens and Tyler Ulis, and I expect the Suns to give Portland a game. The Blazers need to keep winning, but they did clinch the tiebreaker over Denver this week. I don't believe they'll find the going easy tonight. Phoenix enters on a 6-2 ATS run in Portland. The Blazers lead the season series 2-1, but the average margin of victory in the three meetings is just 5 ppg. I expect another close one tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Ducks vs. Oilers
Play: Under 5
This is a battle of the two top teams in the Pacific division and we can expect a low scoring grind tonight. The Ducks have gone under in 11 straight In the first of back to back games and 9 of 10 on the division road. The Oilers have gone under in 7 of 11 vs winning teams and 9 of 11 at home vs Division teams. In this series 27 of 40 games have gone under.
Tony George
South Carolina vs. Gonzaga
Play: South Carolina +7
Have you see the list of teams the Gamecocks have beaten? Apparently Vegas oddsmakers have not as there is NO respect in this line for South Carolina. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in the tourney, took down Duke who was as hot as anyone in the country, led by the best coach in CBB, and they were tested and came from behind against Florida and won big, and they have the best player in SEC on their team. Doesn't sound like a 7 point dog to me, but that is the number.
Fundamentally the Gamecocks are better in terms of the basics. Frank Martin is a hard nosed, old school throwback coach and his team is simply too good on defense to get blown off the floor by anyone. Gonzaga has really had 1 good game in this tourney, and the rest of the games they struggled to win. While I think overall the Zags are the better team when you throw in all the intangibles, they will not walk away with this game unless South Carolina shoots less than 40% from the floor.
The Gamecocks unconventional, slow paced tempo, and very tough defense to crack approach should make Gonzaga feel very uncomfortable. Both teams on a huge stage tonight, who flinches first I guess and in that scenario, the big points here are worth a look. You must admit one thing, South Carolina's resume is more impressive.
Jimmy Boyd
Hawks vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls -4½
I really like the value here with Chicago at home against the Hawks. The Bulls have really responded well to their season being on the line, as they fight to make the playoffs. Chicago has won 2 straight and 3 of their last 4, while covering the spread in 6 of their last 7. The last two wins for the Bulls were both very impressive. They beat a red-hot Bucks team 109-94 in Milwaukee and then took down the Cavs in a nationally televised game 99-93.
Atlanta also comes in having won 2 straight, but those two wins aren't anything to get excited about, as they came against the 76ers and Suns. Prior to that the Hawks had lost 7 straight. Atlanta is a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against a team with a losing record and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 off a win. Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 10-4 in their last 14 at home against a team with a winning road record.
Teddy Davis
Hawks vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls -4½
Who knows if the Bulls will make the playoffs or not, but at least we are seeing some life now from them. You obviously have to be more impressed with the Bulls during this little run beating the Bucks and the Cavs while the Hawks snapped their big losing streak by beating the Suns and Sixers. The Bulls have triple revenge on their mind as well after losing all three games this year. Bulls move into a playoff spot after beating down the Hawks tonight
Dustin Hawkins
Clippers -14½
LA LAKERS are 13-26 ATS versus good offensive teams like the Clippers - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.The Lakers are only 8-17 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season.
Chase Diamond
Oregon vs. North Carolina
Play: Under 153
This play is between the 33-5 Oregon Ducks and the 31-7 North Carolina Tar Heels. Both teams can score the Basketball as the Ducks avg 78.6 ppg and the Tar Heels score 84.5 ppg. But both teams will be on a high level on intensity as this game means so much. I think UNC will try and slow down the game and use their superior athletes to over power Oregon who does not have the NBA start power of North Carolina.
Info Plays
Hawks / Bulls Over 202½
I have a few systems supporting our pick. Play the over when the total is greater than or equal to 200 when one of the teams is off a home win against a division rival, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team. This system is 44-23 (65.7%) since 1996.
Will Rogers
Lakers vs. Clippers
Pick: Lakers
The set: The Staples Center's co-tenants, the Lakers and Clippers meet for a Saturday afternoon matinee in Los Angeles. The 21-54 Lakers are in a 'race to the bottom' of the Western Conference but despite losing 17 of their last 19, just can't seem to shake those pesky Suns, who have lost 10 straight and are just a half-game ahead of LA. Meanwhile, the 46-31 Clippers remain hopeful that they can catch the Utah Jazz for the West's No. 4 seed, which would give them the home court edge in the first round. However, the Clippers are hardly making a late-season charge, having gone 11-10 since returning from the All Star break and enter Saturday 1 1/2 games back of the Jazz.
LA Lakers: First-year head coach Luke Walton is leaning heavily on the youngest players on his roster as the team tries to figure out the building blocks for the coming seasons. Rookie small forward Brandon Ingram is one of those building blocks but he has missed the last three games with patellar tendinitis. However, he averaged 35.5 minutes in the first 11 games of March and responded to the increase in playing time by posting 13.5 points on 51.7 percent shooting, his best numbers in any month this season. The Lakers lost 119-104 on Thursday at Minnesota but seven players scored in double figures. Power forward Julius Randle posted a double-double (12 & 13) but that's after he had totaled just 10 points on 4-of-14 shooting in the previous two games. Is he building block, as well?
LA Clippers: The Clippers only have five games left but they will play four of their final five games as the home team, although the lone road date is a trip to San Antonio on April 8.
The Clippers have averaged 128.5 points in back-to-back wins, shooting 56.6 percent from the floor in a win over Washington on Wednesday and 55 percent in Thursday's win at Phoenix. triumph. Blake Griffin (21.4-8.2-5.0) came up one assist shy of a triple-double in Wednesday's game and followed it up with 31 points on 12-of-19 shooting the next night. Chris Paul 17.8-5.0-9.2) posted back-to-back double-doubles for the first time this month in the last two games while shooting a combined 19-of-32 from the floor while handing out 23 assist and making just two TOs.
The pick: Yes, the Clippers have won 17 of the last 19 in this series and the Lakers don't seem much interested in winning but...The Clippers are just 1-4 ATS since the break as a double digit home favorite, covering only when the Cavs rested LBJ, Kyrie and Love.
Brad Powers
Joel Berry II Under 15.5 points
I am not sure I understand this point total prop as Berry for the season only averaged 14.6 ppg. Recency bias should also say that he will score less than his season average in this one as Berry has averaged just 12 ppg in his last 5 games only topping this total once in the win over Butler. Berry is also dealing with not one, but two injured ankles. As of Thursday's practice, Berry has done nothing in full-court drills all week. Head coach Roy Williams on Thursday afternoon said, "If he feels good (Thursday night), we'll try for (Friday). I can't let him play on Saturday if he can't do anything full-court — because we play a full-court game."
Berry, sprained his left ankle early in Sunday's Elite Eight game against Kentucky, and Williams revealed after that game that Berry had re-aggravated his injured right ankle in last Saturday’s practice. That right ankle was sprained during North Carolina’s first-round game against Texas Southern. Berry said Thursday in the North Carolina locker room that he was feeling a lot better and, "even if I'm not 100%, I'm still playing."
In summary, we have a individual player prop bet that has a higher point total than the season average. It's a higher point total than his recent stat averages and we have a player that will most likely be less than 100% because of not one, but two injuries. Add it all up and North Carolina's Joel Berry II UNDER 15.5 points is one of my favorite prop bets of the Final 4.