John Martin
Suns vs. Blazers
Play: Suns +11
The Portland Trail Blazers were rolling since trading for Jusuf Nirkic. They have gone 13-3 in their last 16 games overall with Nurkic averaging career highs of 15.2 points and 10.4 rebounds during his 20 games with his new team. But Nurkic is now out two weeks with a non-displaced fracture in his right leg. Yet the Blazers are still getting all kinds of respect from the books as 11-point favorites here. They Phoenix Suns continue to play hard as they only lost by 4 as 9.5-point dogs at Atlanta and by 6 as 10-point dogs at Los Angeles in their last two games. I think they can hang for four quarters with the Blazers tonight and stay within this 11-point spread as well.
Brandon Lee
South Carolina vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -6
I'm backing the Bulldogs to win and cover the 6-point spread against the Gamecocks. It's been a great story for South Carolina, but let's not overlook the path they have had to get to the Final Four. Sure they beat Duke, but Baylor and Florida aren't exactly on the same level as Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have proven they are the real deal and dismantled another Cinderella story in their last game, crushing No. 11 seed Xavier 83-59. This Gonzaga team is rock solid on both sides of the ball. A lot of people are talking about South Carolina's defense, but the Bulldogs stop unit has been lights out as well. In fact, you could argue it's been even better. They have held all four of their NCAA Tournament opponents to 41% or worse from the field, with 3 of those failing to shoot better than 36%. Gonzaga will have the much easier time scoring in this one and I wouldn't be surprised if it turned into a blowout.
Tony Karpinski
Hawks / Bulls Under 202½
I can see the Hawks and Bulls accounting for about 190 points Saturday evening, sending this one well Under the posted total. The Under has hit in 10 of the last 12 meetings in Chicago, and has hit in eight straight Bulls home games against visitors with winning records. In two of their 3 meeting this season they combined for 222 and 233 yet the total is set at 203 tonight. The oddsmakers are begging you to take the over. We aren't biting! Too many signs point toward this being another tight battle with the UNDER 203 coming in.
Jack Jones
Oregon vs. North Carolina
Play: Oregon +5
The Oregon Ducks will be a matchup problem for the North Carolina Tar Heels today. They have some of the best guards in the country, and they will certainly have an advantage there with Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks leading the charge.
UNC has been fortunate to get by with a bang-up point guard in Joel Berry. He actually injury both of his ankles within a 24-hour period against Kentucky and won't be anywhere near 100 percent for this matchup. They just aren't as good without him being able to go balls to the wall.
A lot has been made about UNC's size being its advantage, and that will be the case, but Oregon clearly doesn't miss Chris Boucher as much as most think. Jordan Bell has 11 points, 13 rebounds and eight blocks in a 74-60 win over Kansas in the Elite 8, and he has given them that interior presence they have needed in Boucher's absence.
The Ducks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points. Oregon is 6-1 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. The Ducks are 38-16 ATS in their last 54 games as an underdog overall. The Tar Heels are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Gonzaga -6 over South Carolina
You can go on a 1001 sites today and read all about the strategies. Every publication will attempt to break these two games down today with X’s and O’s and talk about each teams strengths and weaknesses. Attempting to break it down to get an edge can be fun and challenging but it’s an exercise in futility. 50% (or thereabout) of said publications will break it down piece by piece and be correct and 50% will break it down and be incorrect. We’re not going to go through the same crap that you can read a million other places. We’re here to look for value and oddly enough, the value today lies in both favorites.
The planets have aligned perfectly for South Carolina to keep advancing and while we take nothing away from that whatsoever, their Cinderella story likely ends here in a big way. Why? Simply because Gonzaga is 20 points better than the Gamecocks on any day of the week. You see, South Carolina has to rely on the opposition turning the ball over and missing a ton of shots also. So far, Marquette, Duke and Florida (in the second half) all were missing a ton of shots and all were turning it over. If the Zags value the rock here, this game should not be close.
It would appear to us that this market is enamoured with the Power 5 allure that draws cheers for a seventh seeded Gamecocks’ squad but generates hollow, unfounded criticism of Mark Few's greatest defensive team and most diverse offensive crew ever. We, too, had our doubts about the Zags because of the schedule they played and not being battle-tested enough. However, we’re also willing to change gears when warranted and the Zags have answered the bell this year to finally get over that hump. The Zags have proven that their 32-1 record was no fluke. They are a top-10 team in every relevant category on both ends of the floor and they are a top-3 team in most of those. There’s a reason why teams seeded 5th or worse get to the Final Four about once a decade and it’s because so many things have to go right for them round after round. In South Carolina’s case, Florida took a seven-point lead into the break and then proceeded to go 0-13 from downtown in the second half. The Dukies went cold after opening up an 18-7 lead very early before the Gamecocks would seize momentum and storm back. South Carolina’s opening round victory against Marquette was against the worst defense in the field and one of the worst in the nation. Let us remind you that Marquette was a 2-point favorite over South Carolina and now the Zags are a mere four points more than that? We’re not discussing a team that nobody expected to be this good and caught everyone by surprise. We’re discussing a team that played 36 games this season and didn’t just turn on a “great switch”. The Gamecocks are very beatable because their offense struggles more often than not. This is a team that lost by 16 to Memphis, lost to Alabama not once but twice and lost to other teams like Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Clemson among others. The Zags are a different beast that have gotten over that mental block that has prevented them from getting to this point in the past and they’re not likely to allow a weak offensive team that relies on others mistakes to beat them. Lay the points.
North Carolina -4½ over Oregon
One of the most impressive victories this postseason was Oregon’s 14-point victory over what looked like to be at the time, an unbeatable Kansas squad. Kansas opened the tournament with a 38-point win over Cal Irvine and then whacked Michigan State by 20 in the round of 32. Not to be outdone by a 38-point victory and 20 point victory, the Jayhawks absolutely steamrolled a very good Purdue team by 32 points (!) in the Sweet-16 round. The question at the time being asked was “How can Kansas beat Purdue by 32 points and then lose to Oregon by 14? It’s a legit question but it’s not a difficult one.
Basketball teams rely on shooting no matter how you break it down. Teams that attack the paint will get their points in the paint for sure and there will also be easy layups and fast break points along the way in every single basketball game whether it be college, pros or otherwise. However, when a team is shooting poorly, there isn’t a cure in the world for it and there isn’t an explanation for it either. Kansas scored 60 points against a not so great Oregon defense but had they been hitting their shots like they were in the first three rounds, we’d likely be discussing a Jayhawks double-digit win over Oregon, instead of Oregon’s 14-point win over Kansas. When Purdue got whacked by Kansas, they could not hit a shot in the second half. When Florida lost to South Carolina last week it was because they went 0-13 in the second half from beyond the arc after hitting seven triples in the first half and taking a seven-point lead into the break.
It’s not rocket science. The team that is hitting their shots from the field will win and the team that is shooting a low percentage will lose. If anyone on this planet could predict which team was going to hit a higher percentage of their shots, that individual would be rich beyond their wildest dreams but they can’t and it’s why nobody can predict the outcome of games. What we can do, however, is target value and in that respect, Oregon’s win over Kansas gives them a ton of market appeal. A ton. Let’s not forget that the Ducks barely got by Rhode Island and Michigan and were one possession away from going home in both games. The Ducks now have to deal with different, more layered dilemmas when facing the Tar Heels. Oregon has faced four teams that relied heavily on guard play thus far but UNC does not. The Tar Heels will attack in the paint like no team Oregon has played in the postseason. The Tar Heels have the height advantage at every position on the front line. Even guard Theo Pinson is nearly the same height as Dillon Brooks, who has played 81 percent of all power forward minutes over the past five games for the Ducks. This especially bodes well for the Tar Heels because of their exceptional rebounding percentages. They not only lead the NCAA in total rebound percentage, but also in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing 58.7 percent of all rebounds and 41.7 of offensive rebound opportunities. Oregon will be fighting an uphill battle by using a smaller lineup while having to face the best rebounding team in the country.
So, if Oregon shoots lights out, we are likely going to lose this wager and if we do, so be it. What is predictable is rebounding and in that regard, this one isn’t close. We can also target over and under-reactions to recent results and again, Oregon is getting tremendous market respect for its win over Kansas while UNC is not getting enough for its win over an outstanding Kentucky team because the Tar Heels were about two seconds away from losing that game. North Carolina battled one of the nation's toughest slates this season. The Tar Heels are big, they've got a solid point guard in Joel Berry II and they have NBA-caliber talent all over the roster. After squeaking by the most talented team (man for man) in the country last week, the Tar Heels now take a step down in class and if they are hitting their shots or if shot percentages are near even, the Tar Heels should roll because they are going to get most of the rebounds. Swallow the points.
Pass NHL
ASA
Oregon vs North Carolina
Play: Oregon +5
The Ducks run to the Final 4 has been extremely impressive as they topped one of the hottest teams in the country (Michigan) in the Sweet 16 and then beat what many considered to be the favorite to win it all (Kansas) in the Elite 8. They Jayhawks were basically at home in Kansas City and they were rolling to say the least winning their first 3 NCAA tourney games all by at least 20 points. Even with that, Oregon handled the Jayhawks by 14 points in a game that was never really in doubt. KU’s only lead of the game was 3-2. The Ducks are 33-5 on the season and 3 of their 5 losses have come by 4 points or less. UNC is obviously very good but we feel they are a bit overrated right now. This team struggled to beat Arkansas in the round of 32 and had to come from 5 points down with 5:00 to go to beat Kentucky by 2 points on a shot at the buzzer. With PG Berry not at 100%, and maybe not even close to it, we think UNC is absolutely beatable here. These two teams are very close in a number of key statistical categories and actually Oregon is the better shooting team (48.4% to 46.9%) and better defensively allowing 65 PPG on 40.7% shooting to UNC’s 71 PPG allowed and 41.7%. The Ducks athletes are absolutely on par with UNC and may actually be better. They should be able to hold their own on the defensive boards which is key vs the Tar Heels. As far as NBA talent goes, the Heels do not have an advantage as they have 2 of the top 53 prospects according the Chad Ford (Jackson & Bradley) while Oregon actually has 3 (Brooks, Dorsey, and Bell). UNC was just a 1.5 point favorite on a neutral court vs Kentucky. Based on that alone, they should be 2.5 or 3 at the very most here. We’re getting value with a very good Oregon team. Don’t be at all surprised if they pull the upset here.
Ben Burns
Philadelphia -193
The Devils are terrible right now and they've been terrible for weeks. They lost again last night. Here, they'll be facing a revenge-minded Flyers team which had last night off and which comes in with a score to settle. Off three straight wins, the Flyers have won more games within the last week than the Devils won in the entire month of March. They'll be happy to take advantage of a tired NJ team which has had their number all season. Payback time.
Wunderdog
Dallas @ Carolina
Pick: Under 5.5
Dallas has gone UNDER its last three games and six of its last seven while scoring only one goal its last two contests against Montreal and Boston. The Stars are playing their fourth road game in seven days after their 2-0 loss to the Bruins on Thursday. Antti Niemi made 22 saves for the Stars, who have allowed only 16 goals their last eight games, but with little to show offensively. Carolina beat Columbus 2-1 in overtime when Jeff Skinner scored the tying goal with 4:20 left in regulation and then assisted on Noah Hanifan's game-winner. Cam Ward made 23 saves and the Hurricanes have not given up more than one goal in four of their last five games. Dallas has stayed UNDER in five road games in a row and Carolina is 10-4-1 UNDER its last 15 home games.
Chris Jordan
The other night I played against the Detroit Red Wings, knowing they were out of the playoff picture. But they were on the road. Tonight I'm going to take a shot with them at home, in their first game in Motown since being eliminated from the postseason, as I think they come out with a bit of pride for the home crowd.
The Wings host the Toronto Maple Leafs, who may be on a 9-2-1 run and are just two points back of second-place Ottawa in the Atlantic Division, but also could be skating into a trap in this one.
Toronto is going to overlook the banged up Wings, who lost two more players this week to injury, but again, are going to come out tonight and play with as much intensity as possible. It's Saturday night at home, and there is nothing left to play for, and nothing to lose.
If for one more time, the Red Wings give Detroit something to cheer for, before the Tigers open play this week, I'll take the big home underdog tonight.
4* RED WINGS
Brad Wilton
Saturday's comp play is Oregon-North Carolina to hold Under the total in the nightcap from Glendale.
Certainly both teams are capable of putting up a big number, but I think this game stays just Under the total when it is all said and done.
Oregon has held Under in their last pair of tournament wins - versus Kansas and Michigan, while North Carolina comes in off an Under in their regional final against Kentucky last weekend, as 2 of the Tar Heels last 3 in the Big Dance have landed Under the posted price.
Both schools have played 6 of their 10 away games this season Under the total, and UNC is 11-3 Under the price the last 14 times they have jumped ball against a school from the Pac 12.
Easy to see a game contested in the 70's on both sides of the basketball, but a game in the low 70's would still mean this contest stays Under the total, and that is exactly what I see playing out.
Oregon-North Carolina Under the total.
2* OREGON-NORTH CAROLINA UNDER
Eric Schroeder
After hitting the San Antonio Spurs with my free play last night, I'm siding with the Los Angeles Clippers tonight, over their Staples Center roommates, the Los Angeles Lakers.
It's a big number, but the Clippers are going to look to staple their dominance into the fledgling Lakers, who have already begun looking ahead to next season and are seemingly tanking games to better their position in June's NBA Draft.
The Clippers play four of their final five regular-season games at home, and need to continue to win while in pursuit of the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference. They catch a Lakers team that has lost three in a row and 15 of its last 17 games.
The Clippers have won nine in a row as the home team in this clash - not that it matters in Staples - but they have won 17 of the last 19 meetings. That matters.
The dominance continues tonight. Take the Clippers over the Lakers.
5* L.A. CLIPPERS
Jack Brayman
Told you last night's game between Coastal Carolina and Wyoming would stay Under the posted number. Tonight my free play is on the Portland Trail Blazers over the Phoenix Suns.
Portland comes into Saturday night's home game on a 13-3 run, and clinging to a two-game lead over the Denver Nuggets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
I know the Blazers are 14-6 with Jusuf Nurkic in the lineup, and I'm sure they will miss him, but they're also so much better than the Suns and should be able to roll behind the play of Damian Lillard.
Lillard is averaging 29.1 points and shooting 48.3 percent from the field for Portland, and rolls into this one after scoring 31 in Thursday's 117-107 win over the Houston Rockets.
It was the 10th time in 19 games Lillard reached 30 points since the All-Star break. And Portland is averaging 111.3 points per game, 48.7 percent shooting and 41.7 percent from 3-point range over the last month.
They'll victimize the Suns, who bring a 10-game losing streak into this one, not to mention a 3-7 ATS slide in those game.
Lay the chalk with Portland, which has covered four in a row at home.
5* BLAZERS
Dave Price
Hawks/Bulls Under 201.5
The Chicago Bulls have stepped up their defense of late as they try and get into the playoffs. They have held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 95 or fewer points. The Atlanta Hawks are struggling offensively without Paul Millsap, scoring 100 or fewer points in 9 straight games during their current 2-7 run straight up. As a result, the UNDER is 8-0 in Hawks last 8 games overall. I think we will see a playoff intensity from both teams here, and that will favor the defenses.
Larry Ness
Atlanta vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
There's a real logjam in the East, as the No. 5 seed (Milwaukee) is just 3 1/2 games ahead of the No. 9 seed (Chicago). The Hawks, despite a seven-game losing streak from March 13th through March 26th, remain the East's No. 6 seed, after beating the Suns (a team which has now lost 10 straight) and the 28-48 Sixers, back-to-back. Atlanta owns a 2 1/2-game lead over the Heat and Pacers, who are tied for the East's final two spots. The Bulls are just a half-game back of Miami and Indiana but time is running out quickly.
Atlanta is in Chicago late this afternoon and has won seven straight in the series, including all three games this season. However, the Hawks are far from 100 percent healthy, a their leading scorer, Paul Millsap (18.1 and 7.7 RPG), will miss his eighth straight game, after having a non-surgical procedure performed to relieve the soreness in his left knee. Thabo Sefolosha (7.3-4.4), another starter, will his miss his fourth straight game here, with a groin injury. However, Atlanta did get good news in in Wednesday's win at Philly, as swingman Kent Bazemore (11,2) scored 19 points and hit four three-pointers in 20 minutes off the bench, after missing five games with a right knee bone bruise.
Chicago: The Bulls missed out on the playoffs by two games last season, despite a 42-40 record. The 36-39 Bulls would have to finish 6-1 to match that record this season. Chicago revamped its team in the off-season, parting ways with Rose and Noah, while acquiring Wade and Rondo. It hasn't played out well, Rondo's been a bust and Wade's performance was underwhelming, until being shut down in mid-March for the remainder of the season. I'm still not sure how trading PF Gibson and the team's best three-point shooter (McDermott), helped the team in the short or long term.
Jimmy Butler (23.5-6.2-5.5) is a bonafide star and recently, the Bulls have made at least 10 three-pointers in each of their last five games. They have come to rely on shooting from distance as part of a game plan coach Fred Hoiberg prefers. The 6-10 Mirotic (10.4-5.3) is averaging 24.8 points over the last four games while going 20-of-32 from three-point range. Let's see how it plays out. Sure, the Hawks have dominated the Bulls recently but they are down two starters and wins over the Suns and 76ers hardly proves much of anything. I'll back the desperate Bulls.
Harry Bondi
PHOENIX (+12) over Portland
Tough to step in front of a red-hot Portland team, but this is a perfect letdown spot as the team is in the middle of a Houston-Utah sandwich. Despite a brutal W-L record, the Suns are still fighting hard, covering three of their last four, so we don’t mind taking the generous points, especially since Phoenix has covered all three games this year against Portland, including a pair of outright upsets. Take the points!