Free Picks for Saturday, April 22nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
ATALANTA -1.5 1ST HALF
There’s a common theme taking place in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, and it’s one that makes all kinds of sense in terms of a rationale as to why it’s happening.
Take a check on the teams that dropped the first two games of their respective series and then look at what has taken place in Game Three. It won’t take much study to determine that the teams trailing 2-0 have come out of the game sizzling in Game Three.
I expect more of the same today as the Hawks are in desperation mode after losing the first two games at Washington. I sure don’t see Atlanta giving up mentally, as they certainly competed in the two road games. I’m also not suggesting the Wizards are suddenly going to coast. But with the 2-0 lead, they’re in a a comfortable position. I’d rather have the team that will take the court knowing they absolutely have to win this game.
Whether or not Atlanta can win for 48 minutes against Washington remains to be seen. But I like my chances of getting a massive effort for the first 24 from the hosts. So I’m laying the -1.5 for the first half with the Hawks.
Scott Rickenbach
Cubs vs. Reds
Play: Under 8
Yesterday's game was a bad beat for those who had Cincinnati (including yours truly) as a big dog as they gave up a 3 run bomb with 2 outs in the top of the 9th to allow the Cubs to tie it. That also was a bad beat for under players as the game was one pitch away from ending 5-2 and staying under the total. Some redemption can be had today. It will be a raw chilly afternoon in Cincinnati with the wind blowing in from left field. Cody Reed gets the start for the Reds and he's full of confidence as he has yet to allow a hit in his 8 innings out of the bullpen this season. Suffice to say the southpaw has earned this start and the Cubs really haven't hit very well early this season and were very fortunate to get that win last night. As for the Reds lineup, they are unlikely to enjoy success against Jake Arrieta as the right-hander is 5-2 with a 0.92 WHIP in his 7 career starts versus Cincy. The Cubs right-hander also no-hit them right here in April of last year.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -113
Baltimore is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Red Sox. The Orioles should be a bigger favorite here, but the books are inflating the lines on Boston because of how big a public team they are. I'll take my chances with Baltimore here, as Red Sox starter Steven Wright has been awful to start the season, posting a 8.36 ERA in 3 starts. Baltimore is calling up Jayson Aquino, who they are hoping can make an impact this year. He nearly earned a spot on the opening day roster because of how strong he pitched in spring training. He's still throwing it well in the minors and will face a Boston lineup that can struggle against lefties.
Ray Monohan
Warriors vs. Blazers
Play: Warriors -6
The Warriors travel to Portland on Saturday trying to take a 3-0 series lead and at this spread, there is a lot of value. The Warriors have been the dominant in the first two games of the series and I don't see that changing in this game. Even if Kevin Durant isn't able to go in this game it won't matter.
After the Trail Blazers back court they just don't have enough weapons to keep up with the Warriors. Some trends to note. Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Warriors are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Chip Chirimbes
Wizards vs. Hawks
Play: Hawks -145
The Wizards have a 2-0 lead in this Opening Playoff round as they scored late in both contests for the wins and ATS covers over Atlanta. But, the Hawks return home where they play significantly better winning 23 games. Aside from the fact that we were 3-0 in NBA action Friday the Hawks need to fly high tonight or they are done.
Jim Feist
Blues vs. Wild
Play: Under 5
St. Louis is strong on defense, #12 in goals allowed, third in penalty killing. The defense has been great in this series, up 3-1 allowing 5 goals in the four games. St. Louis is 16-3-3 under the total against the Western Conference, plus 23-10-4 under playing on two days of rest. They are 10-3-1 under the total on the road and the Under is 36-16-10 in Blues last 62 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Minnesota is off a 2-0 win on the road, #7 in the league in goals allowed, #8 in penalty killing. Minnesota is on a 5-0 run under the total and 8-1 under after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. The under is 5-0 when these rivals clash, 4-1 under at Minnesota.
Scott Spreitzer
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks +105
Arizona is averaging 7.6 runs per game at home after its 13-5 win over the Dodgers last night and Kenta Maeda has allowed 11 runs and 15 hits in just 14 innings this season. Maeda pitched well against the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium last year, but he had a 4.91 ERA at Chase Field while giving up eight earned runs and 16 hits in 14 2/3 innings. Arizona is 7-1 at home and the Dodgers are 2-5 on the road. Robbie Ray pitched six strong innings at Los Angeles his last start allowing just one earned run and three hits with 10 strikeouts. Opposing hitters are batting .161 against Ray, and the Diamondbacks have won four of his last five home starts. Arizona has won 15 of its last 18 home games and the Dodgers have lost five of Maeda's last seven road starts dating to last season.
Brad Diamond
Cubs vs. Reds
Play: Over 7½
The line opened overnight at 8½ and now is pretty consistent around town at 8 OVER. As you can see we are taking a look at the value showing 7½ here. The Cubs come off a super come from behind win 6-5 over Cincinnati on Friday. Now they must face lefty Reed of the Reds who can be a nifty sort if his control is square. In the early going the Cubs have scored just 20 runs in 11 games versus LHP. However, both Chicago and Cincinnati have been OVER machines of late. In fact, the Reds come into action 10-1 OVER in Saturday editions and 5-0-1 OVER w/Reed vs. >.500 unit clubs. The Cubs have shot OVER in 4 straight games and come 7-1-1 OVER L9 Saturday games. In addition, they are 5-1-1 OVER w/Arrieta (5-1-1 OVER vs. the Reds) on the hill and 5-1-1 OVER after scoring 5 or more runs. From the umpire standpoint, with Diaz the Cubs are 6-1-3 OVER. In closing the combined units have scored 138 runs this season.
Marc Lawrence
Chicago at Cincinnati
Play: Chicago -165
Edges - Cubs: Arrieta 9-1 last ten team starts during April; and 8-0 last eight away team starts during April; and 3-0 last home team starts adjacent the Red; and 3-0 last three team starts in Cincinnati. With Arrieta in great current form with a 2.89 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP with 21 K’s and 5 BB’s this season, we recommend a 1* play on the Chicago Cubs.
Jimmy Boyd
Spurs vs. Grizzlies
Play: Spurs -3½
I really like the value here with San Antonio as a short road favorite in Game 4 of this series. The Grizzlies were able to avoid falling down 3-0, but I'm not buying that win as a sign that Memphis is going to make this a series. San Antonio simply didn't match the fire and intensity of the Grizzlies in Game 3. I'm willing to bet that Popovich will make sure the Spurs come out with a lot more energy and focus in this one.
Spurs are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 games off an upset loss by 10 or more as a road favorite, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 in the 1st round of the playoffs. Memphis on the other hand is a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a cover.
Dustin Hawkins
Marlins vs. Padres
Play: Marlins -125
Look up 'rebuilding team' in the dictionary.You will see the Padre's name.Marlins pitcher Dan Strailey is 10-4 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons, he is also is 21-11 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. Strailey is 7-0 against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
Frank Jordan
Toronto vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -2
Milwaukee dominate game three from the word go winning the first quarter 32-12 and entered the 4th quarter with a 78-46 record which rendered the final quarter moot. Milwaukee is up 2-1 in the series and have dominated their two wins and the win by Toronto was by just six games. Milwaukee shot over 50% from the field and three point range while Toronto shot under 34% from the field and under 28% from three. Toronto is too streaky of a shooting team and in the playoffs you need to be consistent and Toronto ain't that and Milwaukee will take them down with consistent play behind their big man in a 115-100 win in game four.
Rob Vinciletti
Montreal vs. New York
Play: New York +100
The Rangers came from behind in game 5 to take their 2nd straight from Montreal and take a 3-2 series lead. The visiting New York Rangers trailed the Canadiens in Montreal by a goal as late as 18:27 into the second period. In the history of the NHL in a best of seven series road teams down a goal with 18:27 elapsed in the second period had a game record of 153-604 (.202).Now the Rangers must take that momentum home where they have struggled at times this year. History is on their side though as we see by the data below. Home teams in this sequence have won over 70% of the time at home in game 6 off back to back wins. The Rangers are a dog in this game. So we will back them to end it tonight.
Will Rogers
Golden State at Portland
Pick: Golden State -6
The set-up: Portland guards Lillard (34) and McCollum (41) went wild in Game 1 but in the end, the Warriors were still able to come away with a 121-109 win. Durant suffered a minor calf injury in Game 1 and as a precaution, was held out of Game 2. The result was a 110-81 blowout win by the Warriors. Lillard was held to 12 points (5 of 17 shooting) and McCollum to 11 points (4 of 17). Golden St. spread the wealth around, as Curry and Thompson led with modest point totals of 19 and 16, respectively. Green added just six points but had 12 rebounds and 10 assists.
Golden State: Durant said he would have been able to go in Game 2 but the team decided to take the cautious approach. It's possible the Warriors could do the same here in Game 3. Durant, who had 32 points and 10 rebounds in a 121-109 victory in Sunday's opener, would get a full seven days off if Golden State elects to hold him out of Game 3.
Portland: The Blazers were 25-16 at home during the regular season, finishing by winning 11 of their last 14. "We have to get a win," PG Damian Lillard said. "You don't want to go into Game 4 down 3-0. That's dangerous territory. We'll feel a lot better if we go into Game 4 down 2-1, looking to tie up the series." Portland could also use some defensive presence on the interior after allowing Golden State's center duo of Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee to go 12-of-15 from the floor. However, center Jusuf Nurkic (fractured leg) sat out the first two games of the series and remains questionable for Game 3.
The pick: Durant or no Durant, the Warriors have gone 10-1 against the Blazers the last three regular seasons and are now 6-1 against them these last two postseasons.