Doc's Sports
Dodgers at DBacks
Play: Under 9
The Los Angeles Dodgers have built their team around tremendous pitching and a very good defense behind them. The lineup is above average, but if the Dodgers are successful this season it's going to be because they win a lot of low-scoring games. On Saturday Alex Wood is scheduled to get the start. Wood has been sort of a forgotten man as he's now a bullpen guy that will get the occasional start when someone is hurt. So far he's pitched well and I think he will continue to exceed the low expectations that everyone has for him. The Diamondbacks are scheduled to send left-hander Robbie Ray to the hill on Saturday. The Dodgers have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching recently. Last season they hit an NL-worst .213 versus southpaws and this season they haven't started much better. Don't expect too many runs to get scored in this contest. Take the UNDER here in our Free Play selection for Saturday. Doc's has recorded four of five winning seasons on the diamond and is off to a fast start in 2017.
Raphael Esparza
Rocky Fielding (-220) over John Ryder
Rocky Fielding enters this fight Saturday afternoon with a 23-1 record that includes 13 KOs. Fielding has won 5 of his last 6 fights, and he's coming off an October win over Istvan Zeller by TKO and if he fights like he did in October he will be tough to beat in this fight. John Ryder comes into this fight dropping 2 out of his last 6 fights and if he can't protect his lower body from Fielding body blows then this fight will be controlled by Fielding. Ryder is a southpaw so that should start this fight off slow as Fielding might need a couple rounds to figure out the crafty lefty, but in the middle of this fight Fielding takes control and wouldn't shock me to see him KO Ryder late in this fight. I know -220 is a steep price but overall Rocky Fielding is the better fighter.
Vegas Butcher
Toronto Raptors +2.5
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When a 'better' team gets blown out in a playoff game, you go right back to them virtually 100% of the time in a zig-zag spot. Raptors go from -8 at home to +2.5 on the road, a 10.5-point swing. Maybe for game 3 that's understandable, but not for this one. Grab the value with Toronto.
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Washington Wizards +2.5
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Atlanta threw everything they had at Washington in game 2, and even then couldn't close it out. Wizards are simply a much better team. Huge advantage in the back-court for them, and I'll grab them as a dog here even though game 3's on the road are typically 'danger spots'.
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Saturday night is on the San Diego Padres, at home against the Miami Marlins.
Now I won't name pitchers here, as I'm not worried about listing either, but it doesn't hurt knowing veteran Jered Weaver is on the hill for San Diego.
The big thing for me is the Padres on a three-game win streak, and it's the long ball that is getting things done for them.
While they're nursing a weak .215 batting average, the Padres have belted 21 home runs this month - eighth-best in the league thus far this season.
That won't bode well for a Miami pitching staff that has a 4.01 ERA, and that has given up the second-most home runs (24) in the league.
Your freebie for Saturday is the Padres, who may take a few out of the park tonight.
5* PADRES
Jack Brayman
Looking for my fourth straight free pick winner, after hitting the Capitals on Wednesday, the Under in the Nationals-Braves game on Thursday and the Orioles on Friday.
Tonight my free winner is on the Baltimore Orioles once again, as I like them to defeat the Boston Red Sox in American League East action.
With the Orioles suddenly on a hot streak, it looks like I'll be keeping a close watch on Baltimore heading into the next week. The Orioles' Dylan Bundy did a good job in keeping hitters off balance last night, tonight I'm banking on left-hander Jayson Aquino, who was promoted Wednesday from Triple-A Norfolk and will make his MLB debut.
It's funny, I read some comments by Red Sox manager John Farrell, who didn't seem too concerned about facing a pitcher for the first time, but that's exactly why it's always good to take pitchers in their Major League debut.
Hitters don't know how debut pitchers execute his pitches. Aquino is at an advantage. All Farrell can pass along is a blind scouting report. But they don't have film or records of what he can do at this level.
Aquino has the typical fastball arsenal, but has an exceptional changeup he isn't afraid to throw, and that stalls right-handed batters.
Take the Orioles and list Aquino only.
1* ORIOLES
Brad Wilton
Saturday's comp play is the Wizards plus the couple of points as they put a stranglehold on their Eastern Conference series against the Atlanta Hawks.
John Wall finally got some backcourt help from Bradley Beal, and that combination will continue to lead the way against an Atlanta team that simply doesn't have the answer in the backcourt to what the Wizards bring to the table.
Throw in big man Marcin Gortat chipping is with his double-doubles, and it becomes a real struggle for the Hawks at multiple positions on the floor to just keep pace with this Washington team.
Dating back to the regular season, the Wizards have now captured 5 straight in this series and 7 of the last 9 meetings overall.
Seems to me the wrong side is favored in this game.
Side with Washington.
5* WASHINGTON
John Martin
Warriors / Blazers Over 217
When you look at recent meetings between the Blazers and Warriors, it's easy to see that there is plenty of value with the OVER 217 tonight. These teams have actually combined for 224 or more points in eight of their last nine meetings. The Game 2 final of 110-81 was clearly the aberration. The OVER is 13-4 in Trail Blazers last 17 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The OVER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Portland.
Tony George
Warriors vs. Blazers
Play: Warriors -6
It was apparent in the last game without Durant, he is not needed to not only beat the Blazers - but the Warriors destroyed and embarrassed them. This series is a total mismatch and the Warriors have Owned the Blazers at 10-1 S*U the last 11, they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 on the road and are absolutely the better team by double digits in every game they play in this series if they show up.
Total Mis-Match and I expect a double digit win here. Kerr will not let them just go through the motions and the Warriors defense is under rated gents, and their firepower is unmatched right now.
Jack Jones
Warriors vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers +6.5
The Portland Trail Blazers were embarrassed in Game 2 at Golden State. Look for them to come back highly motivated to get a win in Game 3 and to get back in this series now that they are at home.
The Blazers have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA. They went 25-16 at home this season, and it will be a raucous atmosphere here tonight. Look for them to feed off of that energy and to give the Warriors a run for their money.
The Game 2 effort was certainly an aberration. The Blazers had been competitive in each of their previous three meetings with the Warriors this season, losing by 8, 2 and 12 points. They were tied at the end of the 3rd quarter in Game 1, so they know that they can play with the Warriors.
Golden State is 4-13 ATS in Saturday road games over the last two seasons. Portland is 9-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive road losses over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
Larry Ness
Wizards vs. Hawks
Play: Hawks -2½
The Atlanta Hawks haven't found a way to stop Washington PG John Wall, who has scored 32 points in each of the first two games of this series, while also averaging 11.5 assists. Wall's backcourt partner Beal has averaged 26.5 PPG in Washington's two wins. The Wizards own a strong starting-five, all of whom averaged double digits during the regular season. Only Otto Porter (13.4 and 6.4) has not done that so far in this series, averaging a modest 7.0 PPG, while adding 7.0 RPG. Fellow forward Morris chips in 12.0 & 5.0 and center Gotat has sure stood up to Dwight Howard, averaging 14.0 PPG and 10.0 RPG.
Atlanta's All Star forward Paul Millsap compared the series to an "MMA" match after a physical Game 1 but was more prepared for the physicality while delivering 27 points and 10 rebounds in the losing effort in Game 2. The hawks had chances in both games, so they are hardly giving up. "We had a chance in both games," head coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters. "We gave ourselves a chance on the road in the playoffs. Nobody likes the result. Nobody feels any better but the fact that you are there and you have an opportunity, you have to keep building on it. ... Now we have to go home and do the same."
The Hawks will need to find a way to Wall, whose slashes into the paint have allowed him to take 21 FTs in the first two games (he's made 18). Also, it will be interesting to see how Budenholzer uses Dwight Howard (6.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG in the series). He chose to leave him on the bench for the entire fourth quarter in Game 2, going instead with Mike Muscala, who he believed had a better chance of stretching the floor. That said, Budenholzer might want to take note that Marcin Gortat matched a season high with five blocks in Game 2 and has posted a double-double in each of the first two games.
The Hawks had a mediocre home record this season (23-18 SU and 17-24 ATS) but the Wizards have been vulnerable defensively all season away from home, allowing 109.3 PPG. Atlanta PG Dennis Schroder has been overshadowed by Wall in this series so far but note that he's averaged 24 points and 7.5 assists in the first two games. Also, I have an inkling Dwight Howard just may assert himself in this one. I'll back the Hawks.
Art Aronson
Washington vs. Atlanta
Play: Washington +3
With a chance to take a strangle-hold on this series, we think the Wizards offer great value in this spot. Washington took Game 1, 114-107 and Game 2, 109-101. The Hawks have no answers for Washington’s backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal, who put up 32 and 31 points respectively in the Game 2 victory. The Wizards also looked sharp defensively, holding the Hawks to only 40.5 percent from the floor, including just 4 of 20 from range. Note that the Wizards are 8-4 ATS this year when playing on two days rest, while ATL is only 14-20 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and just 2-5 ATS after three consecutive road games.
Dave Price
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks +105
The Key: It's well documented that the Dodgers struggle against left-handed pitching. They ranked 30th in several key offensive categories against southpaws last season. And they are 3-6 against lefties in 2017, hitting just .237 and scoring 3.3 runs per game against them. Lefty Robbie Ray is one of the best young talents in the game. He has gone 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in 3 starts this season with 24 K's in 18 1/3 innings. Ray is 3-3 with a 2.80 ERA in 9 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 3-12 in their last 15 games vs. a left-handed starter. Los Angeles is 5-18 in its last 23 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Diamondbacks are 15-3 in their last 18 home games.
Big Al
Kansas City vs. Texas
Pick: Texas
The only thing keeping the Texas Rangers from being dubbed the most under-performing team in the American League is the play so far of the Toronto Blue Jays. After the first 17 games of the 2017 season, the Rangers - a club many thought would be on top in the AL West - find themselves tied for last place with a 7-10 record. This despite an offense that has plated more runs - 79 - than all but two teams in the league. That can only mean one thing - that the pitching hasn't been up to snuff, and that's exactly what's happening so far. The Rangers starters actually have been pretty good (3.46), but their bullpen - well that's another story. Texas' relievers have the fourth-worst ERA in the league at 5.13. One of the clubs that's worse than that? How about tonight's opponent, the Royals, with a bullpen ERA of 5.32. Tonight, we'll back the Rangers behind Nick Martinez vs. Ian Kennedy and the Royals.
Gary Bart
Warriors at Blazers
Play: Blazers +6
The Warriors won the first two games of this series. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games and covered in Game 2 of this series. Portland are 0-3 in their last three games and are in a must win situation. They cannot afford to go down 0-3 in this series against the best team in the league. Take Portland plus the points.
Mid American Sports
St Louis -120
For whatever reason, Lance Lynn's numbers have always been much better in night games than day games, and that holds true in Miller Park. This is a night game, so it looks like a good spot to bet Lynn. Another oddity is that Chase Anderson averages over 5 BB's per 9 innings vs St Louis while averaging about 2.7 against the rest of the league. I really want to bet the Brewers here, but my logical mind tells me to bet St Louis.