Dave Essler
St Louis -120
The Cardinals won last night in Milwaukee and they're going to win again tonight. Yes, I know their bullpen isn't very good, but neither is Milwaukee's. Both pens appear to be regressing to the mean in that the Cardinals' RP's over the last week have been "better" while the Brewers' back end been "worse", and blown three saves. So, we're trying to get ahead of the curve here before the markets catch up. Chase Anderson has put up some elite #'s this season, but historically he hasn't often pitched overly deep and that means the Brewers' bullpen, sooner rather than later (we hope). Lynn on the other hand, is someone that the Brewers have rarely seen, which actually surprised me. That give him the early edge, which also means I like the Card F5 as well as the F5 UNDER. Do with it what you will.
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Saturday night is on the San Diego Padres, at home against the Miami Marlins.
Now I won't name pitchers here, as I'm not worried about listing either, but it doesn't hurt knowing veteran Jered Weaver is on the hill for San Diego.
The big thing for me is the Padres on a three-game win streak, and it's the long ball that is getting things done for them.
While they're nursing a weak .215 batting average, the Padres have belted 21 home runs this month - eighth-best in the league thus far this season.
That won't bode well for a Miami pitching staff that has a 4.01 ERA, and that has given up the second-most home runs (24) in the league.
Your freebie for Saturday is the Padres, who may take a few out of the park tonight.
5* PADRES
TEDDY DAVIS
Raptors vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -2
The Bucks have just been the more impressive team this series. I think most are expecting that the the Raptors will bounce back here. I just don't see it as this young Bucks team are poised to win a series in the playoffs. The length is really bothering Lowry and DeReozan as they are struggling to get easy looks. I see the Bucks making this series 3-1
STEPHEN NOVER
Washington at New York
Play: Washington +106
The Mets shouldn't be favored here. Yes, Jacob deGrom is an outstanding pitcher. But his start was pushed back due to a stiff neck. So you wonder if he's 100 percent? The biggest problem the Mets have, though, is multiple key injuries.
Among those out for the Mets are Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda and Wilmer Flores, New York also could be missing Asdrubal Cabrera and Travis d'Arnaud. The Nationals just got back Trea Turner.
Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez is enjoying a strong April - three earned runs allowed in three starts - and has a strong history versus the Mets with an 11-5 record and 3.04 ERA.
A. J. PENNY
Kansas City vs. Texas
Play: Texas -121
Kansas City hands the ball to RH Ian Kennedy who is 0-2 with a 2.37 ERA. Kennedy has received a total of one run of support in his three starts. The Royals have managed a league-low 43 runs on the season. The Royals are 2-6 in their last 8 road games, 4-10 in Kennedy's last 14 road starts and 1-5 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Texas will attempt to win three in a row for the first time this season. RH Nick Martinez, who will be making his season debut, will toe the slab for the Rangers. The Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 home games and 8-0 in the last 8 meetings with the Royals.
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA -½ -101 over St. Louis
Regulation only. Note the early start time and also note the updated series price of Minnesota at just +320. When a team is down 3-1, they are rarely this low to win the series. Keep in mind that the Wild were down 3-0 so in order to win this series, they would have to win four straight. The odds makers couldn’t care less and they are also offering St. Louis in regulation at -½ +255, which tells us that the oddsmakers give the Blue Notes a minuscule chance of winning.
Clearly, the Wild have been the superior team by a wide margin and perhaps it was Bruce Boudreau’s tremendous press conference after that Game 3 loss that has made these players dig down even deeper. Boudreau basically stated his case and walked out. He said,
“I’m not going to sit here and say we need to be better or criticize my players. We have played tremendous hockey without the bounces. Our guys are working hard and playing hard and you people ARE NOT going to get me to say anything negative about our team. We are a very good team that is playing at a very high level and I could not even begin to ask these guys for more. Thank you very much”.
And out the door Bruce Boudreau went. The players responded with a win in Game 4 in St. Louis to avoid elimination. What happens when a team does not finish the first chance it gets? Usually doubt sets in for the team that failed while the team down 3-0 just got some life breathed into them. Minnesota has been the dominant team by a wide margin every game of this series but it has also been the least watched series according to TV ratings. What that means is all those flattering sores to the Wild are nothing but fool’s gold and now we’ll look to take advantage. See ya back in St. Lou for Game 6.
SPORTS WAGERS
MEMPHIS +5 over San Antonio
Public reluctance to buy into a lower seed can give us an advantage, as it affords an opportunity to snag value on an overlooked team at an exceptionally good price. We are simply buying into an undervalued asset. That asset is the home court advantage that Memphis clearly owns in the FedEx Forum, especially against the San Antonio Spurs. The Grizzlies have now won their last three against the Spurs in Music City and in the last two, the Grizzles’ sometimes lackluster offense found ways to generate over 100 points against the Spurs fundamentally sound defense.
The Grizzlies looked dead in the water after falling behind 2-0 in this series against San Antonio but found new life and a second wind in Game 3. The Grizzlies led by as much as 22 points late in the fourth quarter and never looked back, as their defense curtailed the Spurs to just 94 points. Now the Grizzlies carry extra momentum with them into Game 4 against a team they know they can beat on their own court. A win here makes this series a best of three and Memphis has to like that scenario after getting walloped by 29 in Game 1. Another key narrative in Game Three was Memphis causing 12 turnovers while turning the ball over just five times. All this serves as a testimony to their smothering defense hitting their stride at the right time.
Let us not forget that despite hitting a high 41.7% of their triples in Game 3, the Spurs were down by 22 points at one point. What happens when that percentage is lower, as it usually is on the road? The FedEx Forum will once again be rocking to the maximum and the Grizzlies will likely feed off of it again. The x-factor here is Mike Conley. He has had some injuries this year but he at one point was asking for some big money. He can be a top-10 point-guard in this league and this is his stage to prove that. Conley was the best player on the floor in Game 3 (24 points, eight assists) and he’s not finished yet. He’s also a great defender that was instrumental in the Grizzlies shutting down Parker and Green. The Grizz are in this series. They lost Game 1 by 29, came within six points late in Game 2 before losing by 14 and went pretty much gate to wire in Game 3 in an 11-point victory. The Grizz are getting better and gaining more momentum and confidence with each passing quarter and at the very worst, they are a 50/50 proposition to win this one outright. let alone cover. Man, these points are sweet and provide us with some insurance should it come down to the wire.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle +102 over OAKLAND
Yesterday we wrote a somewhat lengthy piece on the Mariners and how we are going to be backing them when being offered a price and we’re not going to let up here. Again, we trust that it is only a matter of time until the Mariners offense starts putting up crooked numbers regularly so the time to buy some stock would be now or before that happens. Numbers will start to correct for every team and right now the Mariners are currently dead last in MLB in OPS on the road (.535). That can’t be over a full season and won’t be. The M's primed to explode offense will now face Jharel Cotton. Cotton has allowed five earned runs in each of his first two starts at home to open the season. Cotton faced the M’s last season once and didn’t fair too well. This year, we’ve seen a massive regression in Cotton’s control over his first three starts. In 17 innings, Cotton has walked nine and struck out 13 and when a pitcher isn’t throwing strikes, it is the best time to fade. Everything sets up well here for the Mariners bats to wake up.
Ariel Miranda began his 2017 campaign with back-to-back weak efforts against Houston but rebounded against Miami on April 17th. His 45% groundball rate, 4.02 xERA, and decent command don’t exactly scream upside, but he could be useful in the right spot. Oakland is 22nd in OPS against RHP (.622) thus far, which is right where they’ll likely be at the end of the year too. This wager is not really about the starters, however, it is more about sticking with the Mariners for the next while.
San Francisco -1½ +175 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:
ARIZONA +104 over Los Angeles
Not sure the Dodgers deserve to be favored today. Robbie Ray (LHP) hurled a six-inning, three-hit, two run start against the Dodgers in his latest start on April 17th and had a mostly successful four-start stint against them in 2016 —3.36 xERA, 1.12 WHIP. The Dodgers are currently nursing multiple injuries to some of their better RHB (Logan Forsythe, Justin Turner) and own a .218 BA against LHP thus far. Ray made a significant adjustment in his pitch mix from 1H to 2H in 2016, essentially using his two least effective pitches less and dialing up his most effective offerings (sinker -10%, four-seam +10%, change -6%, slider +5%) more. The 25-year-old appears to be another tweak and some better luck away from unlocking his full promise. Ray’s 2H xERA, K-rate and overall skills provide a glimpse of his capabilities, and his current market price gives him considerable profit potential. Robbie continues to fly under the radar.
Kenta Maeda (RHP) owns a poor 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP after two starts, but his underlying skills have been pretty solid. Thing is, we said that last year about Maeda and while he has good BB/K ratios, the concern is that he’s a big risk in these hitters parks because of his weak batted ball profile that is at 31% grounders, 21% line-drives and 49% fly-balls. Last year it was much of the same and it has led to a 1.9 hr/9. Until he learns to keep the ball down, Maeda will likely continue to give up jacks at parks like the one he’ll pitch in here. He’s a great value play at pitcher’s parks when offered a price but that is not the case here. D-Backs are going good at home and have a great shot at keeping it going here.
Power Sports
Dodgers at Diamondbacks
Pick: LA Dodgers
The D'backs' surprisingly strong start to the season continued yday w/ a 13-5 beatdown of the Dodgers. That put a somewhat sizable dent in Los Angeles' run differential and it is now Arizona that leads the league in that department (+20). But don't expect that to continue even w/ the D'backs' sporting a strong 7-1 record here at Chase Field (7.6 runs per game!). Dodger Blue is the better team and will show that tonight.
Kenta Maeda needs to get his act together, however, as his ERA is a rather unsightly 7.07. Still, he should do better than what we saw from Dodgers pitching last night. The 13 runs allowed were the most in any game this season and just the 17th time over the last three seasons that they allowed 10 or more. Nine of them came in the crucial eighth inning where five walks were issues. That frame left the Dodgers obviously stunned and they had no time to answer with only three outs remaining. Maeda has generally saved some of his best work for Arizona, whom he has limited to a .227 batting average over six starts. His KW ratio is 39-8 in 37 1/3 IP.
Speaking of walks, they have been an issue for tonight's Arizona starter, Robbie Ray. He's issued 12 free passes in his three 2017 starts. To this point, he's been fortunate to get away w/ it as the team is 3-0 with him on the mound, but I don't see it continuing. Both Ray and his offense are due to cool off in a major way moving forward.
Buster Sports
Marlins at Padres
Play: Over 8
Miami lost the first game of their 3 game set in San Diego and tonight the pitching matchup is one of a couple of guys that could easily get hit all over the park. The starting pitchers for tonight's game are for the Marlins RH Dan Straily (1-1, 4.61 ERA) and he faces the Padres RH Jered Weaver (0-1, 4.24 ERA). Straily has pitched OK the last couple of starts but has had some control problems. His biggest problem will be tonight when he travels on the road. He didn't last long in his only road start allowing 5 runs in 3 1/3 innings. Last year he sported a 4.70 ERA on the road so you can see he is out of his comfort zone on the road. As for Weaver we believe this might be the 34 yr old veterans last year. His ball speed has fallen drastically the last couple of years and at the end of last year he had an ugly 5.45 ERA in August and only a little better 4.23 in September. The Marlins will get to him early in this one. The total is set at 8 and we will play the OVER here.
Bob Balfe
Braves +110
The Phillies have hit well under .200 against left handed pitching this year and only generate about 2 runs. When teams hit a wall against certain styles of pitching it just makes it really hard and they need a near flawless performance on defense to win low scoring games.
Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON +2.5 over Atlanta
Atlanta has not been able to stop Wizards point guard John Wall who has scored 64 points in the first two games. Washington has won and covered the first two games of this series, we cashed with them last Sunday on the phones and Wednesday here as another FREE WINNER, and have won and covered 4 of their last 5 against the Hawks. Wizards get the money again tonight.
Jimmy Moore
Atlanta -2.5
This series is set up for a classic home team series. Washington won and covered games 1 and 2 but now the series shifts to Atlanta with the Hawks back to the wall down 2-0. Look for the desperate Hawks to crank up the defense and get this win and cover to stay alive in this series.
Jeffrey James
San Antonio -3.5
The Grizzlies had their fun in getting a big win in game 3 but look for game 4 to be back to business for the Spurs. San Antonio has long been an awesome road team ATS and they have dominated the Grizzlies over the past couple of years in playoff action. Look for a return to form here - especially on defense - for the Spurs to get this win and cover.
Wunderdog
Montreal @ New York
Pick: Montreal -103
Montreal has the kind of veteran team and powerhouse defense (fourth in the NHL in goals allowed) you need on the road in the playoffs. The Canadiens took their first lead of the series with a dominating 3-1 win in Game 3 at Madison Square Garden. The Canadiens are on an 11-3 run on the road, 9-4 after scoring two or fewer goals in their previous game. The NY Rangers have struggled at home, on a 3-9 run in this building. Montreal has won five of the last six at Madison Square Garden, so back the visitors again and play Montreal.