DAVE COKIN
RED SOX @ 924 ASTROS
PLAY: RED SOX +107
It’s way too early to write off the Houston Astros. There’s all kinds of young talent on this team, and we all saw what the ‘Stros are capable of last year. But at the present time, this is a struggling entry and I’m going to try and beat them today.
Every team goes through peaks and valleys, and right now the Astros are definitely fighting it. When the pitching is good, they don’t hit. When the team puts runs on the board, the staff gives them right back. Houston is also just not playing good baseball. There was a glaring blunder last night, when George Springer decided for reasons unknown to try and steal third base with not one out and his team trailing 5-0. That’s just dumb, regardless off whether the steal is successful or not.
The Astros face another potentially difficult obstacle here with Clay Buchholz on the mound for Boston. Buchholz hasn’t exactly been razor sharp out of the gate, but he’s off an okay start. The same cannot be said for Mike Fiers, who has been just plain lousy so far and now has to face a very capable Red Sox attack.
I’m not sure what is happening with Fiers. His velocity is down, and so are his K’s, and by fairly significant margins. Fiers is not walking anyone, so that’s a good thing. But his numbers through three starts tell me that his command is simply not there as opposed to his control. The former is what matters more than the latter, and it appears pretty obvious that Fiers is missing in the middle of the zone, hitters are seeing his offerings very well and the results haven’t been at all pretty. Fiers has surrendered a ghastly 42.4% hard hit rate thus far and six of his offerings have already been launched beyond the boundaries.
Buchholz comes out ahead of Fiers on my pitcher rankings. Although the Boston pen has had some early missteps, they still rate better than the Astros on the relief corps numbers. I’m not sure if Xander Bogaerts will play for the Red Sox today after getting hit on the wrist by an errant Luke Gregerson offering in last night’s ninth inning, but I’ll still have a check mark next to the Boston offense, particularly when factoring in the early season splits. There’s also the present four-game losing streak owned by the Astros. With the price being right enough, I’ll grab the small plus with the Red Sox in this one.
Sleepyj
LA Clippers -115
When I look at all the teams playing in the playoffs, the Clippers stand out to me as very strong right now..I understand this is a home game for Portland, but they look over matched..Clippers at some point go on a few runs and before you now it, they are ahead by double-digits....Clippers can't afford to get into a long series here with the Trailblazers..All indications are the west coast teams might play 5 games or 6 at best..Clippers would like a rest and solid play on both sides has been the MO the first two games...Portland can win the game for sure, but they have to do everything right in order to win this game..I just don't see it and they are outmatched in the paint by a long shot..Clips win and we win.
Indiana/Toronto Over 193
I expect the pace to pick up here for Game 4...Toronto played rather fast in Game 3 and Indiana looked like they had a rough time trying to control the tempo..They can either try again and get what happened in Game 3, or they can play a little faster and look comfortable..Indiana can play fast as they have for the majority of the season....I think we see plenty of points here and I would not rule out a OT playoff game with this one.
Brad Wilton
Saturday comp play is the Ducks back at home to defeat the Predators.
Nashville was in the Driver's Seat, I repeat....WAS in the Driver's Seat, as the Preds took both in Anaheim at the Pond last week, only to return home and give the home ice edge right back to mighty Anaheim.
The difference?
The Ducks switching goalies and going with the Great Dane, Frederik Andersen who has limited the Predators to only one goal in the 2 games he has played in.
Their is a reason the Ducks earned the higher seed, and you have been seeing it the last few days in this series.
Time for the home team to actually win a game.
Ducks take it.
4* ANAHEIM
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is to stay the course and play the Under once again in the Toronto-Indiana series.
Three games in the books in this East Opening Round, and three Unders also in the books. For the season, the Raptors and Pacers have combined to hold Under the total in five of their six series meetings.
The Raptors have now played seven of their last nine games since the regular season Under the total, while the Pacers have seen each of their last five, and six of their last nine overall hold Under the price.
To add a little more fuel to the fire, five of the last seven series meetings at the Bankers Life Field House between these clubs have also stayed Under the price.
No sense in playing "contrarian" here, stick with the established trends and play Game Four Under the price.
4* TORONTO-INDIANA UNDER
Rob Vinciletti
Rangers vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox -143
Chicago has won 9 of the last 12 vs rightys and Texas is 1-3 in day games hitting just .164. Rodon has a better era at 2.25 than Lewis for Texas has at 4.00. Home favorites in this range are 55-15 since 2004 off a home favored win at -140 or higher by 5+ runs if they had 10+ hits and the total was 8 or less and the opponent scored 2 or less runs and 5+ hits. Look for Chicago to take another from Texas.
Scott Spreitzer
Boston vs. Houston
Play: Boston +108
Home or away, day or night, the Houston Astros are struggling badly at the plate and are the most disappointing team so far this baseball season. Houston enters 5-12 on the season, including just three wins in their first eight home games and the pitcher on the mound today is not likely to get things on track. Mike Fiers has been a disaster, allowing 12 earned runs, 22 hits, and six home runs in three starts, spanning just 16 2/3 IP. He's been saddled with a 6.48 ERA, .319 BAA, and a hefty 3.23 HRs per 9 IP. Today Fiers faces a Red Sox lineup that ranks 5th in MLB in hits, 3rd in team batting average, and 5th in OBP. Boston will send Clay Buchholz to the mound today. The right-hander also struggled in his first two starts, but found the "sweet elixir" last time out and held the Blue Jays scoreless on six hits in 6 2/3 IP. Buchholz has tremendous road and daytime numbers since the 2013 season, and he's 3-0 in four starts against the Astros over the last three years, with a sizzling 1.38 ERA & 0.80 WHIP, to go along with a .190 BAA. With Houston mired in or near the bottom-third of MLB in most important offensive categories, we'll look for the Red Sox righty to perform well again.
Marc Lawrence
Indians vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers +111
Edges - Tigers: Anibal Sanchez 8-0 last eight overall home team starts. Indians: Corey Kluber 4-8 career team starts in this series, including 0-5 the last five; and 3-12 career team starts during April, including 1-7 away. With Kluber 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA this season, we recommend a 1* play on Detroit.
Jim Feist
Marlins vs. Giants
Play: Under 7
Miami is 3,000 miles from home and weak offensively, No. 22 in runs scored, 4-0 under the total against a righty starter. At least they have their ace on the mound in Jose Fernandez, striking out 27 in 16+ innings with only 11 hits and 8 walks allowed. Fernandez (1-1) earned his first win of the season, holding the Nationals to one run in six innings. He allowed three hits and walked four while striking out nine. San Francisco is No. 19 in on base percentage on offense. Jake Peavy has thrown better at home and the Under is 12-4 in Peavy's last 16 starts with 4 days of rest.
Matt Josephs
Red Sox vs. Astros
Play: Over 8½
A pair of struggling pitchers take the mound as the Astros host the Red Sox. Michael Fiers has allowed 12 runs and 22 hits in 16.7 innings of work. Fiers has allowed six homers over that span and could struggle with the potent Red Sox. Boston is averaging almost six runs per game away from home and nearly five runs per contest in the daytime. The Astros bullpen continues to look for their first win of the season. Clay Buchholz is 0-1 with a 5.74 ERA and a WHIP of 1.595 in 15.7 innings of work. Buchholz has given up 10 runs and 17 hits, but has some good history against the Astros. Houston's offense is scuffling averaging under four runs per contest against righties. Still, the righty isn't that good so I think we'll get a couple of runs in this one from them. I like the over.
Bob Harvey
Raptors vs. Pacers
Play: Raptors -1½
The Toronto Raptors look to take a commanding series leads when they visit the Indiana Pacers. The Raptors backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan each scored 21 points on Thursday as the Raptors posted a 101-85 victory for a 2-1 lead. Another victory this afternoon would leave the Pacers in a huge hole.
The Raptors (58-27, 47-38 ATS) are starting to resemble a team that won a franchise record 56 games during the regular season. In addition to the stellar play of Lowry and DeRozan, Center Jonas Valanciunas has been a rebounding force for Toronto. He had 14 boards in Game 3 and is now averaging a league-wide postseason best 16 rebounds.
The Pacers (46-39, 42-42 ATS) have been carried by All-Star Paul George who is averaging 28 points per game in the series. George had 25 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in Game 3 but he also hit just six of his 19 shot attempts.
The UNDER has been the money play when wagering on these two teams. Five of the last six meetings have stayed south of the total and the UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven overall.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings and 5-2 to the low side in the last seven games Toronto is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games overall and past four road outings.
The Raptors are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Indianapolis.
Martin Griffiths
AFC Bournemouth vs. Chelsea
Play: Over 2½
Interesting game this one, Chelsea have the better players, but they have hardly shown that this season and there is a good chance that mentally they are already on holiday,, they have absolutely nothing to play for and that is showing.
Bournemouth are almost safe and realistically will not be relegated, but they are not mentally on holiday, they are still fighting for every point and just as it is showing that Chelsea are in wind down mode, Bournemouth are still totally on the ball.
But, it is dangerous to dismiss Chelsea out of hand, they have players that can turn a game in a heart beat, they have wonderful talent and if they were in the mood could win this game in a canter.
That is why I cannot go with an outright pick or a pick on the spreads, no one has any idea what sort of Chelsea team will be on display today, I know what Bournemouth team will turn up, but not what Chelsea team will.
But, I am confident that there will be goals in this game, I see both teams scoring and expect one of them to score at least twice and therefore will be going for more than 2.5 goals in this game, it is the clever pick, the safe pick.
Jesse Schule
St. Louis Blues vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Play: Chicago Blackhawks -145
The Blues just barely escaped with a 1-0 victory in overtime in Game 1. The Blackhawks out-shot the Blues 35-18, dominating the play for most of regulation and overtime. It was a lucky bounce that resulted in the game winner, and we saw Chicago bounce back with a commanding victory in Game 2. The Hawks went on to lose back to back close games, but down 3-1 in the series showed plenty of character with a win on the road in Game 5. Patrick Kane led the NHL in scoring during the regular season, becoming the first American born player to win the Art Ross Trophy. He's the type of player that has the talent to take over a game, or even a series. He's not the only such player in the Chicago lineup, as Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith are also capable of being that guy. This is something the Blues just don't have. Their leading scorer Vladimir Tarasenko can put the puck in the net, but he's not of the same caliber of Kane and Toews. The only other player in the lineup with at least 20 goals was the captain David Backes who scored 21. Chicago is deeper, more talented and has the experience of winning multiple championships. It was Kane that was the difference in Game 5, scoring the game winner in overtime. That could well prove to be the turning point in the series, and I expect the Hawks to force a Game 7 back in St. Louis.
Ben Burns
Golden State vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
The Rockets are getting a large handful of points here and I believe that big number is providing us with some value. Curry is expected to be "back" for Game 4. However, Houston believes its "back" in the series. While winning the series remains an extreme longshot, that Game 3 victory should give the Rockets the confidence to know that they can compete - and that they at least have a fighting chance. I expect Harden and co. to be absolutely "ready to play" on Sunday afternoon. With Houston at 29-12 ATS (30-11 SU) the past few seasons, when play
Big Al
St. Louis vs. Chicago
Pick: St. Louis
The Blues were all set to close out this first round series after taking a 3-1 lead and returning home for game five. But they fell into a 3-1 hole by the end of the second period and although they were able to tie it in the third, Chicago got the game winner in the second overtime from their star, Patrick Kane. If there was a positive takeaway for St. Louis it was the fact that it was able to mount that comeback against the Hawks and Corey Crawford and that it pelted the star goalie with 46 shots over the course of the 4 1/2 periods (as compared to Chicago's 35 shots). Chicago's United Center has become a home away from home for the Blues recently as they are 5-1 in the last six meetings here. The visitors have dominated this series lately as the road team is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The Blackhawks are also 4-12 in their last 16 games vs. teams from the Central Division.
Jimmy Boyd
Pirates +103
Pittsburgh has won back-to-back games and head into Saturday's matchup with the Diamondbacks swinging a red-hot bad. The Pirates have scored 19 runs in their last 2 games and have totaled 60 hits in their last 5 games.
They figure to add to that total here against Arizona starter Rubby De La Rosa, who has a 9.00 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in 2 starts. De La Rosa allowed 7 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 3 1/3 innings against the Cubs and another 3 runs on 5 hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Dodgers.
With the Pirates offense expected to put up a big number, Pittsburgh should have no problem securing the win behind Juan Nicasio. Nicasio has sandwiched two quality starts around one bad outing against the Tigers, which I believe has him undervalued in this spot. Nicasio has allowed just 13 hits with 17 strikeouts in a total of 15 innings this season.
Diamondbacks are just 10-25 in their last 35 home games when they come into a contest having won 3 of their last 4, 1-11 in their last 12 against the NL Central and 0-6 in De La Rosa's last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record.