Will Rogers
Toronto vs. Indiana
Pick: Under
The Toronto Raptors took command of their Eastern Conference playoff series versus the Pacers with a 101-85 win in Indiana in Game 3. I think they'll suffer a bit of a let down here in Game 4, and with so much on the line we should see another low scoring defensive battle.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Raptors have failed to reach the total in four straight away from Toronto, and the under is 10-1 in Raptors last 11 games following a ATS win.
2. Home Cookin' - The Pacers are on the ropes, and they really need to win this game to stay alive in this series. They do play pretty strong defense at home, and the under is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 home games.
3. X-Factor - .These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in five of the last six meetings, and five of the last seven meetings in Indiana.
Power Sports
Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
Basically every preview written about the National League made it clear that there would be six very bad teams this year. These two were counted among them. Therefore, the Phillies' current record of 8-9 has to come as somewhat of a surprise. Yet, upon closer inspection, there's little reason to be optimistic in Philly.
After dropping the series opener last night, Milwaukee is 7-10 with a run differential of -36. Only division rival Cincinnati (-39) has been outscored to a greater degree by its opponents this year. But Philadelphia (-27) isn't far behind and I find it hard to believe they're capable of posting B2B road wins. Not with an offense that's averaging only 2.8 rpg while hitting a collective .219. Saturday's starter Charlie Morton was rocked in his lone road start to this point, giving up six runs in just 3 2/3 innings (at Cincinnati). Road woes are nothing new for Morton, who has posted a 5.05 ERA in six career starts here at Miller Park.
Milwaukee won all seven games against the Phillies last season, so this is clearly an opponent they are capable of beating on a regular basis. I think that Chase Anderson (starting tonight for the Brew Crew) is being undervalued here due to a poor effort his last time out. However, Anderson didn't allow a single earned run (was charged w/ three unearned) in his first two starts and those came against Houston and St. Louis, a pair of playoff teams from last season. Therefore, it's reasonable to expect he can handle a scuffling Phillies lineup.
Brandon Lee
Blue Jays -147
Toronto is worth a look here at home against the A's on Saturday. Oakland comes in having won 6 straight, but are getting zero respect from the books with this line. A big reason for that is the Blue Jays will send out lefty J.A. Happ. Oakland is just 17-35 over the last 2 seasons when facing a left-handed starter and Happ has been sensational to start the season. In 3 starts he's got a 1.89 ERA and 1.211 WHIP. Happ also has been dominant against the A's over his career, posting a 2.01 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 5 career starts. Even with yesterday's loss the Blue Jays are 20-8 in their last 28 against the AL West and 31-15 in their last 46 at home.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 47-31 run with complimentary plays: N.Y. Rangers (+175) at PITTSBURGH.
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers are back on the ice tonight and for my free play I'm taking the road team here, as I think the Rangers are a value play at this price. The defending Eastern Conference champions are not going to go out without a fight, despite their offensive woes.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Defense is the bread and butter of this team, and that's what we're going to see here. Defense in the playoffs is always what wins games, and it's defense first for the Rangers. So while so many are looking to ridicule the Rangers' offense - or lack thereof - tonight it will be the defense because that's all that matters.
BOTTOM LINE is - And like any sport, the defense will create your offense. The Rangers had five 20-goal scorers this regular season, so it's not as if they can't put the puck in the net. They just need a spark, and it'll come from the defense this time.
1* RANGERS
Harry Bondi
ARIZONA -110 over Pittsburgh
This line just does not make sense and Vegas is setting a trap for the suckers on Pittsburgh. Diamondbacks are 2-8 at home, tonight's starter Ruby De Rosa has been shelled in two starts AND two relief appearances but they are favored against a very strong Pittsburgh team and their starter, Ricky Nolasco is 2-0 and has been almost unhittable! Looks like a trap to us so we will be with the "sharps" and take Arizona.
Stephen Nover
Cubs / Reds Over 8.5
It's not a huge surprise the over has cashed in eight of Cincinnati's last 11 games. The Reds have a terrible bullpen and they play in a great hitter's park.
John Lackey isn't a front line starter anymore and the Cubs should do plenty of damage against converted starter Dan Straily and one of the worst bullpens in the majors. The Reds' relievers have a combined 6.89 ERA. Straily has a career 4.51 ERA.
The Cubs are averaging 6.9 runs per game on the road even though most of their big hitters haven't gotten into full gear yet.
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ Detroit
Pick: Detroit +110
Cleveland got the win here yesterday, 2-1, but still isn't hitting. They had six hits, two walks, and rank #26 in runs scored and #24 in on base percentage. Starter Corey Kluber is getting too much respect from oddsmakers from past performance, off to an 0-3 start with a 6.16 ERA. He gave up six runs on nine hits and a walk over six innings as the Indians fell 6-0 to the Mets as -155 chalk. Kluber is on a 3-9 run on the road going back to last season with a 4.25 ERA, and the last three years he is 1-5 against the Tigers with a 4.26 ERA. The Indians are 4-10 when Kluber has five days of rest. Detroit is home and #13 in runs scored, #11 in slugging. Detroit righty Anibal Sanchez (2-1) throws well in this park and the last three years he is 20-12 at home. He has dominated the Cleveland lineup over that time, allowing 21 hits in 30+ innings, with nine walks and 35 strikeouts. The Tigers are 12-4 in Sanchez's last 16 starts, including his last eight starts in this park. And the Indians are on a 19-44 run at Detroit.
Bruce Marshall
Thunder at Mavericks
Play: Mavericks
The Mavs have already been smoked twice in this series but did bounce back from their Game One drubbing with a 1-point win in Game Two. Most of the Dallas efforts over the last three weeks would be good enough to stick within single digits, as Rick Carlisle's slowdown pace worked to catapult the Mavs into the playoffs when they won 7 of their last 9 regular-season games. Still not compelte trustworthy of the Thunder, whose efforts have been erratic and whose penchant for blowing late leads does not make it comfy if the game is in doubt.
Bruce Marshall
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kansas City Royals -1.5
The Birds have flipped their starting pitcher for this game, moving in Tyler Wilson after scratching originally scheduled Vance Worley. Wilson is being summoned from the bullpen after three relief appearances, and was 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA in five starts last season. Sharp early work from Royals starter Kris Medlen, with a 2.38 ERA in two starts, as the Royals continue to be surprisingly undervalued.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +145 over TORONTO
This is not a play on Chris Bassitt. This is a play based on backing the red-hot A’s at a very good price against J.A. Happ, a starter for the Blue Jays that has upside but that should not be favored by this much over the Athletics. The Jays continue to struggle to win games and while we trust they’ll break out of it at some point, it’s worth fading them at these prices until they do. Oakland has now won six straight including the opener here last night. Bassitt has two quality starts in three attempts this year after going 1-8 last year for the A’s with a 3.86 ERA in 86 frames. Bassitt went from long relief to the rotation, and actually posted four straight dominant starts in late July. He was better than his brutal W-L record, but his mediocre K-rate and command and a 4.20 MLB xERA suggest a vanilla skill set. He’s been better this year in terms of ERA (2.79) and we’re willing to ride his luke warm hand before it blows up.
J.A. Happ has been sensational in three starts this season with a 1.89 ERA, five walks and 12 K’s in 19 innings. Wow. So there's a thing called "recency bias" that makes us think the most recent events will continue into the future. There's also a thing called "a career of mediocrity" that we think probably offsets those three starts to open the year. We’re not suggesting for a second that Bassitt is the superior pitcher here. We’re simply suggesting that Happ is not breaking out. That’s not an opinion, that’s based on nine years of MLB service for 12 teams (Philly x2, Toronto x3, Houston x3, Philly x2, Seattle and Pittsburgh). We’ll gladly roll the dice here.
Tampa Bay +136 over N.Y. YANKEES
Masahiro Tanaka is indeed a quality starter that is scary to bet against because when he’s healthy, he’s damn good. Tanaka also has outstanding numbers against the Rays but that’s of no concern to us. Our fade on the Yankees will continue all season long when they’re favored because they are going to lose a lot more games than they win when they are favored. We’re not going to pick and choose which games either. This is simply a fade all season against the Yanks when they are the chalk. Again, the Yankees are made up of aging overpaid stiffs that struggle to do everything. The Yankees redeeming quality is their pitching staff, which can take a team a long way but not this team. The Yanks can’t hit lefties (or righties for that matter) but they’ll face another one today in rookie Blake Snell. We previewed Snell in our MLB call-ups section and we’ll run that here too.
Blake Snell (LHP - TB)
Outside of Julio Urias (LHP - LAD), you won’t find a better left-handed pitching prospect than Blake Snell. At 6’4”, 180 pounds, the 23-year-old Snell works with four pitches, all above-average or better. His fastball found a couple extra ticks last season, and touches 95. His cutter is also an above-average pitch that sits around the high 80s. It’s Snell’s plus slider and changeup, however that make him a near-frontline starter. The slider has sharp horizontal break and comes in around 83 mph, while the changeup drops off the table and gives him an out-pitch against righties. Snell has solid velocity and excellent sequencing ability, allowing the entire arsenal to play up. He’s struggled with his control in the past, but showed much better last season in Triple-A Durham, posting a 2.6 BB/9 rate. Snell's arm speed and slot have been much more consistent over the past year, and in time, he could grow to be a true ace. For now, he'll make his first start for the Rays today (April 22) and then head back to Durham for more seasoning or at least that’s what the Rays claim. His career minor league line: 436.1 IP, 2.74 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 10.1 K’s/9, 22 HR, .221 oppBA, 1.29 WHIP.
2015 STATS: Durham (AAA) — 9 g, 6-2, 1.83 ERA, 44.1 IP, 2.6 BB/9, 11.6 K’s/9,2 HR, .187 oppBA, 0.94 WHIP.
Yankees struggle against lefties and they also struggle against pitchers they have never seen before. Both apply here.
Boston +126 over HOUSTON
The Astros have five wins in 17 games. Only the Braves have fewer wins and while it’s still very early, this collection of young players are in a funk that may be difficult to snap out of. The Astros came out of nowhere last year to make the playoffs but several players had career years and now they are feeling some pressure after a slow start when expectations were very high. After posting a 2.13 ERA in 72 major league innings in 2014, Mike Fiers apparently got the attention of the Astros, who picked him up at the 2015 trading deadline. While Fiers didn’t match those numbers in 2015, he made enough of an impression to earn a slot in the Houston rotation in 2016.An 82% strand rate contributed to that 2.13 major league ERA in 2014. His xERA was somewhat fortunate in 2015, as well. Fiers has good control and a very respectable 3.87 ERA after three starts but there are more negatives than positives. What really sticks out is Fiers groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 37%/32%/31%. That reveals that when balls are hit, they’re hit pretty hard. As the chalk, we’ll pass.
The Red Sox are 0-3 when Clay Buchholz starts. However, he’s faced Cleveland, Baltimore and Toronto so far and he’s looked better with each passing start. Buchholz has outstanding numbers against current Astros batters as well with just 18 hits against in 101 AB’s (.178). Buchholz’s stock is very low at the moment, which sets up this very nice buy-low opportunity. The Red Sox are so dangerous offensively and they were able to smell a wounded prey last night. That smell is even stronger today.
Philadelphia +131 over MILWAUKEE
Sometime you simply cannot over-analyze games. There are teams in every sport that are a huge risk when favored because they lose so many more games than they win. Both Milwaukee and Philadelphia are two such teams that offer up some value from time to time when being offered a tag but have no value whatsoever as the chalk. Additionally, when you add an average starter to that equation, the risk increases. Chase Anderson has 16 victories in 51 starts over his career. 24 of those 51 starts were of the quality variety. He also has a career xERA near 4.00. What we have here is a complete crapshoot. Anderson’s chances of getting the Brew Crew a victory are 50% on his best day.
Charlie Morton has 16 K’s in 16 frames to go along with a 63% groundball rate. His fastball is up to 94 MPH and his K-rate comes with the full support of a 13% swing and miss rate. Charlie Morton comes in with a xERA of 3.06 and has never looked better. The Phillies are a young, enthusiastic and talented squad that loves coming to the park and while they will suffer some growing pains, they are absolutely worthy of betting today.
SPORTS WAGERS
Series - St. Louis -107 over CHICAGO
The Blue Notes are -140 in Game 1 and down to -107 in the series after opening up as a -125 favorite in the series. That tells us that the public is pounding the Blackhawks in the series but that the sharp money is on the Blue Notes in Game 1.
This is strictly a numbers play on St. Louis. By betting them in the series at -107 before Game 1, we are getting outstanding value considering that the Blues are -140 in Game 1.
St. Louis +130 over CHICAGO
OT included. To the casual fan, the Blackhawks have all the big guns in this series. Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith are all household names because of their incredible success together. Kane's double OT winner in Game 5 is the lasting image from that contest and it's what most bettors are thinking about as they head to the window. We understand it's easy to get caught up in the ‘Hawks. They always come back, their record when facing elimination since 2013 is 7-1 and the Blues always blow it. Well, St. Louis has some great players of its own in Vladamir Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko. Don't discount these guys just because their names are hard to pronounce. Jaden Schwartz is one of the best players in the league nobody talks about. The fact is the Blues are loaded with talented players that aren't mainstream yet. The Blues are deeper on the front end, the backend and in net. Blackhawks coach Joe Quenneville has been forced to lean heavily on his top three D-men and that wear began to show late in Game 5. It's only a matter of time until the Hawks run out of steam trying to keep up with the Blue Notes.
To our eyes, it's easy to see the Blues are the deeper and more talented team in this series. They've been on the wrong end of some close calls that have cost them games and yet they continue to fight back when a lesser squad or mentally weak one may have packed it in and gone home with a laundry list of excuses. Like the Sharks last night, the Blues have a huge opportunity to finally get over the hump and beat up big brother on their way to the second round. The market trusted Los Angeles would not lose three games at home during these playoffs and that market got buried. That same market figures Chicago can't and won't lose this game after that big OT win last time out. That may be true but from our vantage point we see the Blackhawks wearing down and the Blues imposing their will. Most importantly, the Blues once again provide some great value and at this inflated price we're happy to back them again
Series - Anaheim +170
We have the Predators in the series at +175 and we’re now going to ensure a profit by coming back on the Ducks in the updated series price. Nashville had a chance to put the Ducks away in Game 3 but failed to do so. The Ducks now have life and they may not look back again.
Our concern with the Preds remains the same. We don’t trust Pekka Rinne to steal a game or win a series. The Preds may have also lost a key member of their second line in Craig Smith, who is questionable to return. When it’s all said and done, this series is one that will very likely be decided in this pivotal Game 4, which is rightfully priced at a pick-em. With that in mind, we took our shot with the Preds but we don't want to gamble with them anymore, therefore now would be the time to get out and ensure a profit. Bet the Ducks in the adjusted series price here only if you played Nashville before the series began.
Ray Monohan
Seattle Mariners +103
The Mariners go for their 4th straight win and will send ace Felix Hernandez to the hill. Seattle at plus money with Hernandez on the mound is a valuable play. Hernandez was scratched on Friday, but is expected to be 100% ready to go in this spot. He's dominated the Angels in his career, going 7-2 with an ERA of just 1.37.
That bodes well here as he goes up against an Angels team that can't score. The Angels have scored 3 runs or less in 14 of the first 17 games they've played this season.
Some trends to consider. Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win. Mariners are 7-2 in their last 9 road games.
Look for the Angels to really struggle in this one as Hernandez can produce a lot of swings and misses.
Back Seattle, winners of 3 in a row and one of the best .500 teams in MLB.
Jack Jones
Chicago Cubs -152
The Chicago Cubs are the best team in baseball through the first three weeks of the season by a landslide. They are 13-4 on the season and outscoring the opposition by an average of 4.0 runs per game. They average 6.2 offensively and give up 2.2 defensively.
The Cubs have a three-headed monster at the top of the rotation. And after seeing Jake Arrieta throw a no-hitter and John Lester hold the Reds to one run the past two days, you can bet that John Lackey is going to be inspired and want to follow them up with another dynamite performance.
Lackey is off to a solid start in Chicago, going 3-0 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.169 WHIP through three starts with 22 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings. Lackey certainly enjoys facing the Reds, going 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 10 career starts against them. He is 2-2 with a 2.34 ERA in his last five starts against the Reds as well.
The Cubs are 27-7 (+17.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 3.1 runs per game. Chicago is 11-1 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season. Lackey is 12-1 (+11.1 Units) against the money line after two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 2-17 (-14.3 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 or more over the last 2 seasons.
Michael Alexander
Red Sox +125
Clay Buchholz doesn't have a victory this season, but the Boston Red Sox hurler has enjoyed remarkable success against the Houston Astros in four career outings. Buchholz is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and has tossed two complete games against the Astros entering today's road start in Houston. Buchholz will be attempting to pitch the Red Sox to their second straight win over Houston after the club racked up 15 hits in Friday's 6-2 victory. Mookie Betts went 4-for-5 with two triples and scored three runs as part of a torrid three-game run during which he has gone 8-for-14 with two homers, eight runs scored and five RBIs. The Astros have dropped four straight games and eight of their last 10 as they are tied with Minnesota (5-12) for the worst record in the American League. Houston has been outscored 22-12 during its four-game skid.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals -121
The Kansas City Royals continue to be undervalued on a regular basis despite winning the World Series last year, and making the World Series the year before. They are off to an 11-5 start this season, and if you bet $100 per game on them this season, you'd be up roughly $600. Now they are only -121 favorites over the Baltimore Orioles, who are overvalued right now due to their surprising 10-5 start, which clearly won't last. Starter Kris Medlen was another sneaky acquisition for the Royals who could pay big dividends in the long run. Medlen is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA through two starts in 2016. He is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in his only lifetime start against Baltimore, which came last season in an 8-3 victory. The Royals are 42-18 in their last 60 home games. The Royals are 8-1 in their last 9 home meetings with the Orioles.