Carlo Campanella
Thunder at Spurs
Pick: Under
Spurs hosts Oklahoma City for Saturday's Game #1 and most of Vegas has them favored between -5 & -6.5 points. We're backing the Under knowing that the Spurs are 2-7 Over/Under as Playoff home favorites of -5 points or more. San Antonio swept the Mavs in their first round postseason series, including 2-0 at home, with BOTH of those Playoff games going Under the Total. These teams met 3 times during the Regular season, with ALL 3 of those games also going Under the Total. With things getting more serious as we move into the second round of the Playoffs, we're expecting better defensive play and lower scoring games now than during the Regular season.
DAVE COKIN
TIGERS VS. TWINS
PLAY: TWINS +120
One of the the starting pitchers in today’s Tigers-Twins game is featuring the following: Highest BB rate since his rookie season, although it’s still a very good walk rate. Lowest K rate of his career. Lowest velocity of his career. An unsustainable strand rate. A 0.0% HR/FB rate. That’s the weird combination of numbers pertaining to Jordan Zimmermann.
Look, facts are facts. The guy has made four starts, he’s 4-0 and he’s allowed one earned run. It’s not easy to look at those numbers, see that Zimmermann is facing a last place team today, and simply click the submit button with the line being as apparently inexpensive as it is.
But I won’t be playing on Zimmermann and the Tigers, and in fact I’m going to try the Twins today. Zimmermann’s analytics scream regression, and the truth is it might well have started for him last time out. He got the win, but three runs crossed the plate (two unearned) and Zimmermann only recorded one punchout in his 6.2 innings of work.
The other side of the pitching coin is a guess, pure and simple. I liked what I saw out of Tyler Duffey in his late 2015 debut in the bigs with the Twins. Duffey has a knuckle curve that can be unhittable at times from his 3/4 arm angle. He has to command his other average offerings, no question about that, and he did not do so in his 2016 debut last Sunday. And the Detroit hitters faced him twice last season, so the element of surprise won’t exist here.
I can’t say I’m loaded with confidence regarding Duffey, who has to show late ’15 was not a fluke. But the key for me here is why the price here was set to guarantee overwhelming action in terms of ticket percentage on Detroit, and I believe the guys who set the numbers are seeing the same things I am as far as Zimmermann goes. In fantasy baseball terminology, Zimmermann looks like an ideal “sell high” candidate. As far as wagering goes, I’ll try and “buy low” with the betting line as an indicator and I’ll play the Twins today.
Sleepyj
NY Mets -180
A nice full card here today for us....I will parlay the Mets & Pirates for starters.....Both come with a price, but I feel good with our starters on the mound....DeGrom should be fine here and the Mets bats took off yesterday...Matt Cain IMO is way past his prime and this might be a rough outing for him...Lariano is always a must look at home, but the Reds will send Simon to the mound...Simon might be the worst starting pitcher in the league...I'll be surprised if he shows up today and remains in this starting rotation much longer..He isn't very good and the Pirates lineup should chew him to pieces..Both roll and this one cashes.
Royals -108
KC bats have cooled off, but I feel good about them today...My main man Ventura takes the hill today for KC..He will be looking for a solid outing and the Mariners won't scare him one bit...Miley gets the call for the Mariners and he might be in trouble here..He pitches for contact and ground balls..Problem is the Royals are a team that can get you in serious trouble with that approach..If the KC bats can manage contact, they will find all the holes in this one..Royals squeeze out a win here. 3-1
Angels/Rangers Under 9
I made this line 8o25...So grabbing a 9 here looks rather good..Two decent pitchers in good spots here I think..I would't be surprised to see some hits and perhaps a deep shot, but I feel the pitchers will stick around long enough to avoid those big innings..I'll trust my numbers here.
Red Sox -128
IMO Boston is the better team...Pineda will struggle at some point and that might be the end of the story...This is a guy who if he gets rattled, it all falls apart..He hasn't looked sharp yet this year in consecutive games. Boston won't let up at home and that one big inning is what I'm banking on..Don't be shocked if the Redsox bat around the order for 1 inning on Pineda..He will get in his head and that will be all she wrote..Boston looks solid today.
Braves +1.5 -110
This RL wager hasn't been released yet, but -110 area seems fine..I'd lay up to -125/-130....Lackey got bopped in his last start and the Cubs are not healthy right now...No Schwarber, Montero and Bryant is now day-today...Cubs can overlook a bad Braves bunch right here..Braves got Teheran on the mound and he will be gunning for his 1st win of the season...Braves actually looked decent in the Boston series..They scored runs and applied pressure to the Boston pitchers and came away with some hits in bunches...Braves got a win in that series closer..They opened up yesterday with a loss @Cubs 6-1 Final....ML price of -222 for Lackey Vs. Teheran seems crazy IMO..Whenever I take a +RL, I have to make sure I feel the team is hitting well and the pitcher is solid..Are they a live dog here?...Sure they are and I'll grab the +1.5 with the leagues worst team.
Rob Vinciletti
Nationals vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -124
The Cards have won 5 of 7 at home vs Washington and are averaging over 6 runs the past week, while the Nationals are hitting just .197 the past week. St. Lois fits a solid 16-3 power system based on last night home loss. Garcia makes the start and he has won the last 3 vs the Nats and has a 1.29 home Era. Ross for Washington has a 10.11 era vs St. Louis. The Cardinals have won 23 of 33 as a home favorite in this range. Play the Red Birds today.
Marc Lawrence
Giants vs. Mets
Play:Mets -185
Edges - Mets: Jacob DeGrom 2-0 career team starts in this series; and 14-6 last twenty overall home team starts. Giants: Matt Cain 3-13 last sixteen team starts during April. With Cain in wobbly current form with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP this season, we recommend a 1* play on the Mets.
Brandon Lee
Rangers -120
Texas is worth a look here as a small home favorite in Saturday's matchup against the Angels. The Rangers will have a big edge on the mound in this one, as they sound out Derek Holland against LA's Matt Shoemaker. Holland comes into this game with a strong 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 4 starts. Holland has been especially good when starting at night. He has a 2.70 ERA in 3 starts at night, compared to a 4.26 ERA in day games. I really like his chances of out performing Shoemaker, who has a 6.87 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 4 starts. Shoemaker made a name for himself going 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 2014, but came back to reality with a 4.46 ERA in 24 starts last year. Clearly he's not found his touch from two years ago and at this price it's worth the gamble to go against him.
Mike Lundin
Giants vs. Mets
Play:Mets -178
It's a fairly expensive price on the New York Mets, but I just don't see them lose this one so I'm looking to make some easy cash with Jacob deGrom (2-0, 1.54) on the mound.
Degrominator has been dominant in previous meetings with the Giants posting a 2-0 career mark with a 1.17 ERA and 17 strikeouts over 15 1/3 innings of work. He allowed one run and did not walk a batter for the second straight outing in a 3-2 win over Atlanta on Sunday his last time out.
The Giants turn to Matt Cain (0-2, 6.43) who is 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA over his last nine starts against the Mets but 0-5 with a 6.64 ERA in his last 11 starts overall. He gave up four runs on 10 hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 5-4 loss to the Fish last Sunday and the Giants are 3-12 in Cain's last 15 starts with five days of rest.
Cain has a swollen 1.67 WHIP for the year and the Mets are 11-1 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and the ball club has won 10 of its past 11 overall.
Martin Griffiths
Granada vs. UD Las Palmas
Play:UD Las Palmas +1-125
Massive game for the home side in which nothing less than a win will do if they are to avoid relegation from La Liga this season.
When a team has to win a game, especially a team in the relegation zone, it is easy to assume they will get the win simply because they have to win and when they are playing a team with nothing to play for it makes that belief all the more powerful, but on occasions that belief can be misplaced.
Granada must win and Las Palmas have nothing to play for, so the scene is set for a home win , but in this particular game I am not so sure.
Las Palmas ran out 4-0 winners against Espanyol, they have won four of their last six games and lost just the once and while they may be in a winding down mode I still expect them to put in a decent performance this evening in Spain.
Granada have “had” to win over the last month or so and yet they have won just once in eight games and have become something of a draw specialist in recent weeks.
Granada have won just five times this season at home from 17 games, not exactly a fortress their home ground, though Las Palmas are not exactly formidable away from home losing 10 from 17.
Granada are the favourites of course, they do have motivation, they do have something to play for and they are at home, but they are not a good side, they are not on a roll and they are just as capable of not winning this game as they are winning it.
Now, Granada in their last five home games have gone unbeaten, they won their last game at home 5-1 over Levante and drawing the games before that, so that must also be taken into consideration, as does Levante winning four of their five games away.
For me this game has draw written all over it, but I also acknowledge that Granada have more to play for than Las Palmas and are at home, but I cannot see the away side being walkovers and with the spread being set quite high, Granada having to give up a goal, I see the value in taking Las Palmas on the spreads.
Jimmy Boyd
Astros/A's Under 8
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's contest between the A's and Astros. The books have set a big number and a lot of that has to do with both teams sending out a starter who will be making his first start of 2016.
Oakland will give the ball to Jesse Hahn, who is far from a recognizable name. However, Hahn has pitched well when given the chance. He has a 3.23 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 30 career appearance (28 starts). Hahn has been lights out at Triple-A, posting a 2.04 ERA in 17 2/3 innings of work. I really like his chances here of shutting down an Astros' lineup that has not produced to their potential so far this season.
Houston will counter with Chris Devenski, who has pitched exclusively out the bullpen to this point in the season. Devenski has been very impressive in relief, posting a 0.66 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 13 2/3 innings of work. I like his chances of keeping Oakland's offense in check. Let's not forget that the Coliseum is one of the more pitcher friendly parks in the big leagues and winds are expected to be blowing in around 10 mph from left field.
Brandon Shively
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Over 8½
Zack Greinke has been terrible at Chase Field this season. How bad? How about a 9.72 ERA giving up 27 hits (5HR) and 18 runs in only 16.2 IP. He has given up 13 runs in 7.2 innings pitched with runners in scoring position this year. The OVER is 2-0 this year when he has pitched at home with the roof open with 15 and 19 total runs scored.
Chris Rusin had a 5.37 ERA last year on the road. He gave up 14 homeruns on the road in only 12 games pitched on the road last year. 2014 wasn’t any better as he had a 8.44 ERA on the road in three games pitched. This will be his first start of the season. He hasn’t thrown more than 47 pitches this year. I can’t see him going very deep in this one. If he does, then Arizona should be able to hit him as fatigue sets in. If not, the Rockies horrendous bullpen will be called on.
Arizona has a lineup that is stacked with right handed hitters. The OVER is 4-0 this year at home when the Diamondbacks face a left handed starter. The roof is expected to be open tonight and the OVER is 7-2 when the roof is open.
The Rockies might also get a boost in their lineup from Charlie Blackmon who was activated off the DL yesterday. Arizona got shutout last night. I can't see them getting blanked again tonight. This is a game they need to win, or at least Greinke for that matter. I look for the offense to give him some run support in a 7-5 type of game.
ASA
Tigers vs. Twins
Play: Under 8½
The Tigers Jordan Zimmerman is 4-0 this season with an 0.35 ERA and still has not allowed an earned run on the road. Zimmerman has made two road starts this season and has not allowed a run in 12 innings. Overall, the Twins have struggled at the plate this season and it continued yesterday. Minnesota will be fortunate to scratch anything off of Zimmerman on a chilly afternoon in Minneapolis with the wind blowing in from left field at a good clip. The weather conditions should also help Tyler Duffey to shut down the Tigers. Duffey will be making his 2nd start of the season after allowing just 1 earned run in a shortened outing in his first start of the new season. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his career starts against the Tigers. Both of those starts stayed under the total and Zimmerman's only career start against the Twins also stayed under the total. In 10 day games this season for the Twins there have only been 3 overs. Also, yesterday's over was just the 3rd over in 10 divisional games for Minnesota this season.
Jim Feist
Angels vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9
The BallPark in Arlington is a small park, great for hitters. Angels' starter Matt Shoemaker (6.87 ERA) has been all over the place, with 20 hits, 10 walks in 18 innings. He's also been down the plate, surrendering 5 homers. Shoemaker (1-3) allowed seven runs, six of which were earned, on six hits and three walks while striking out four over three innings to take the loss Sunday against the Mariners, 9-4. The Over is 9-4-2 in Shoemaker's last 15 starts vs. the AL West. Texas is No. 11 in baseball in runs scored on an 8-3 run over the total at home. The over is also 35-17 in the Rangers last 52 during game 2 of a series. And when these rivals clash the over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in Texas.
Matt Josephs
Tigers -124
We'll go back to the Tigers who send Jordan Zimmermann to the mound on Saturday. The former Nat is 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.115 in four starts. He has 16 strikeouts to just seven walks and only Brian Dozier (0-3) and Eduardo Escobar (0-2) have faced him. Minnesota is 7-16 this season and 2-8 against the rest of the division. The Twins are just 3-7 in day games hitting .227. The Tigers bullpen spared most of their good arms so they'll be fresh for this one. Tyler Duffey makes his second start of the year after getting hurt at Washington. Duffey gave up one run and five hits in four innings of work. He beat Detroit twice last September, but this is a better offense. The Tigers have scored seven runs or more in three straight and four of their last five. Minnesota's bullpen hasn't been very good since Glen Perkins left as closer. It's not as fun to take Detroit as a road favorite, but we'll do so on Saturday.
Tony Karpinski
Tigers -133
Detroit knows that Zimmermann is an extremely useful contributor to the starting rotation, and with a 1.12 WHIP and 0.35 ERA, Zimmermann has certainly done more than enough to be dominant in this game. Minnesota has no other use for Brian Dozier but also, really have no one to replace Dozier with, he has been terrible, at best, with his pitiful .207 bating avg this season so far. Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Power Sports
Chicago vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
The White Sox arrived at Camden Yards Thursday w/ the best record in baseball and a pitching staff that was on fire. Two days & 16 runs allowed later, they now can do no better than a split in this four-game set. Buck Showalter is the Bruce Arians of MLB in the sense that his teams always seem to overachieve. Take the O's.
Mat Latos has been an incredible story thus far for Chicago. He's 4-0 in four starts w/ a 0.74 ERA and 0.822 WHIP. That's a better ERA than teammate Chris Sale! To say this is unexpected would be a mild understatement as Latos went 4-10 last year w/ a career worst 4.95 ERA, playing for three different ballclubs. As good as he's looked to this point, I think it's fair to say that regression is coming. Thus far, Latos has yet to face a top 10 offense in runs scored. The Baltimore lineup he goes up against tonight is averaging nearly five full runs per game at home while batting almost .300. Note that Latos has been extremely fortunate to this point w/ a .969 strand rate.
Camden Yards has been quite kind to the home team so far in 2016 as the Orioles' record here is now 9-1. They are doubling up opponents in the runs scored department (4.8 to 2.4) following yday's 6-3 victory. The White Sox are just 4-12 their last 16 games played here in Baltimore. Tonight's starter for the O's is Kevin Gausman and he looked great in his first start of the season, which took place Monday, as he allowed just one run and three hits in 5 IP. Unfortunately, his team lost the game (2-0 to the Rays) as they ran into Chris Archer. I lean to the home team yet again in this early season battle of division leaders.