Big Al
Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
As predicted, the difference in the game one win for the Caps here at Verizon Center was in the men between the pipes. Likely Vezina Trophy winner Braden Holtby out-played rookie Matt Murray despite the fact that the Pens out-shot the Caps by a 45-35 margin. The key now for game two will be how the 21-year-old reacts tonight in game two after losing his first-ever overtime playoff game. No doubt the Verizon Center faithful decked out in Red will be all over Murray verbally tonight from the opening face-off. TJ Oshie - in his first post-season with the Caps - was the star for the home team, notching a hat trick including the unassisted game winner a little more than halfway through the extra stanza. This is exactly why the Caps acquired Oshie in the offseason from the Blues - he gives them some big-time playoff experience and the Caps (and their fans) love his aggressive style of play. With the Caps' dramatic victory in game one, the home team is now 3-1 in the last four meetings.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh @ Washington
Pick: Pittsburgh +106
Washington's offense took a dip the last series, losing twice to Philly after taking a 3-0 series lead. The Caps scored just two goals in the final three games of the series, then had to hold off Pittsburgh in Game 1, a 4-3 overtime win. They face a dominant Pittsburgh defense, ranked sixth in the NHL in goals allowed and fifth in penalty killing. And the speedy offense behind Sidney Crosby is sixth in the league in goals scored. In Game 1, Crosby won 68 percent of his faceoffs as Pittsburgh outshot Washington 45-35. The game was played at a breakneck pace, which the Penguins prefer, with Ben Lovejoy, Evgeni Malkin and Nick Bonino scoring for Pittsburgh. The Penguins lead the NHL in the postseason with an average of four goals per game and have the postseason's top power-play unit. The Penguins are on a 35-17 run, 20-6 on one day of rest and 13-3 against an opponent with a winning record.
Brad Wilton
My Saturday comp play is Boston to hand their arch-rival New York another loss.
This New York team is not very good right now, either at the plate when they are hitting (3 runs plated or less in 9 of their last 10 games!), or on the mound where their pitching has allowed 26 runs over their last 5 games.
Not surprisingly, the Yankees have won just 3 times in their last 10 games.
Yanks starter Michael Pineda has been a bust with a 6.95 ERA and a 1-2 mark for the month of April!
Boston has won 5 of their last 6 games, and starter Rick Porcello has been a revelation this year at 4-0 with an ERA of 3.51.
Really surprised the price on this game is not higher, so jump on the Red Sox as they keep the scuffling Yankees at bay once again at Fenway Park.
4* BOSTON
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 48-37 run with free picks: N.Y. Yankees at BOSTON (-130)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The epic rivalry between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees started in the shadow of the NBA Playoffs and NFL Draft, and it was the Crimson Hose taking Game 1 of the best-of-19 series. I like the Red Sox to take Game 2 of this series, as I think the Yankees will be reeling a bit after last night's loss, their third straight overall. Do not list pitchers in this game, as I think the Red Sox can take advantage of the slumping Bombers.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Crazy as this sounds, while I'm not lilsting pitchers, I don't mind saying we're at an advantage with Rick Porcello on the hill. This guy has been lights out this season, and while he didn't earn his fifth win last year until after the Fourth of July, he has a chance to do it before May this season. Porcello (4-0, 3.51 ERA) can tie the major league lead in victories tonight and could become the first pitcher to win all five of his starts in April with an ERA above 3.00 since Chien-Ming Wang did it with the Yankees in 2008. Again, even though we're not listing him - he is starting!
BOTTOM LINE is - New York (8-13) has been horrendous at the plate lately, hitting .207 while being outscored 17-5 during its three-game slide. While the Yankees were held to six hits - one of them an Alex Rodriguez bomb - David Ortiz stroked a tiebreaking two-run shot in the eighth inning of Friday's 4-2 win in the opener of this three-game series, deflating the Yankees, who have lost 11 of 15. Take the home tonight, laying the cheap price.
4* BOSTON
Teddy Davis
Nationals vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -137
I was on the Nationals last night, but will gladly back the Cardinals in today's game with Garcia taking the mound. Garcia has pitched very well to start the season despite a 1-1 record. His ERA is just 3.24 while is WHIP is 1.16. However, Garcia loves pitching @ home in his two starts there is ERA is just 1.29! The Nationals send Joe Ross to the mound who has been very impressive, but I feel he is due for a little reality check here. In his only game against the Cardinals he didn't make it out of the 2nd inning last year. The Nationals are also 0-6 in Ross L6 road starts vs team with a winning record.
Chase Diamond
Royals vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -103
This game has the 12-10 Royals at the 12-10 Mariners. Now we played on the Mariners last night and won with a great pitcher not so much today but Wade Miley knows that if he does not pitch well today this might be it for him as a starter. Royals flat out are not hitting lately and this line really looks funny to me. You have the Royals best pitcher against the Mariners worst and the Royals are the dog. Royals have dropped 4 straight and today will be 5. A huge 80% are backing the road team and this line has moved 10 cents the other way. We will follow the sharp money and back the Mariners at home.
Ray Monohan
Pittsburg Pirates -1.5
The Pirates send their ace to the mound on Saturday and laying 1.5 holds value on the Buccos here. Pittsburgh goes with Francisco Liriano, who should be able to keep this Reds offense off balanced. The Reds offense has struggled all year long and when they get good pitchers in the rotation, things tend to go south for them.
The Pirates will get to see Alfredo Simon, who boasts an ERA of 16.39 on the year. He tends to leave pitches up and hasn't shown any consistency yet.
Some trends to consider. Reds are 1-7 in Simons last 8 road starts. Pirates are 40-16 in their last 56 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Pirates are 22-5 in Lirianos last 27 starts.
Look for the Pirates to really have an edge here. Given that, the RL is worth a look.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -119
This one is as simple as Jordan Zimmerman is a stud. He's proving to be a huge addition to the Tigers' rotation, and he'll keep it rolling today.
Zimmerman is 4-9 with a minuscule 0.35 ERA through four starts, giving up just 1 earned run in 26 innings of work. Not to mention, he's 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start against Milwaukee. He pitched seven shutout innings of a 7-0 victory.
Detroit is 15-4 (+12.4 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 17 or more hits over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 10-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games off a win of 6 runs or more over a division rival over the last 3 seasons. Zimmerman is 13-2 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games after giving up 1 or fewer earned runs in his last 2 outings in his career.
Joseph D'Amico
Mets -1½ +126
New York is the hottest team in baseball, winning 7 in a row and 12 of their L14, with contributions from both their offense and pitching staff. Their lineup has averaged 6.25 RPG in those 12 victories while their pitching staff (currently ranks 4th in ERA and 3rd in K's) has only yielded 2.08 RPG. The Mets send Jacob deGrom to the mound. The RH is 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA on the season and owns a 2-0 career mark with a 1.17 ERA vs. San Francisco, with 17 K's in 15 1/3 IP, and holding the Giants batters to a mere, .115 Team BA. San Fran's pitchers pitching has been horrible, ranking 23rd (4.63 Team ERA). They have Matt Cain on the hill. The RH is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.43 this year, allowing hitters a .321 BA. The Mets have taken 4 of the L5 in this rivalry, with those 4 victories coming by an average of 4.72 RPG.
Harry Bondi
MIAMI -130 over Milwaukee
Classic case of two teams going in opposite direction. After a sluggish start, the Marlins are back to the .500 mark, thanks to a seven-game winning streak while the Brewers continue to flounder, losing five of their last six and eight of their last 11. This will be the Brewers' first look at Miami's new acquisition Wei-Yin Chen, which is a major advantage for the southpaw, and we don't think Milwaukee starter Chase Anderson (6.00 ERA at home) will last long here, allowing the hot Marlins hitters to tee off on a Brewers bullpen that has posted an ugly 5.31 ERA at home this season. Lay the road favorite.
John Fisher
Royals at Mariners
Play: Royals -103
SP Ventura for the Royals has dominated the Mariners in two outings against them. He brings a respectable 2.3 ERA and a Whip of 1.2...it's the Whip that has me a believer this year. He has been prone to let his walks get the best of him instead he has shown composure this year. He will face SP Wiley who to me seems like a middle reliever. His sinker tends to stay up and Perez loves that hitting 5/6 with a HR against him. Royals easy does it here.
Vegas Butcher
St Louis Cardinals -140
Here’s a classic example of a pitcher’s ERA not justifying his true performance level. Ross has an ERA of 0.5, but his 16% K-rate (5.4 K/9) is terrible, his 0.196 BABIP is unsustainable, and his 93% strand-rate is unrealistic. His advanced metrics indicate a SIERA of 4.4, or a pitcher that would rank about 100th out of 150 starters (30 teams * 5 starters per team). Basically Ross is more of a bottom-third percentile in terms of his ability so far, not an ‘elite’ pitcher that his ERA might be indicating. One key issue for him is that he’s horrible against lefties, while being dominant against right-handers. Cardinals have 5 lefties (out of 8 hitters…pitchers don’t count in NL) in their lineup tonight and come into this one having the #1 ranked offense in the league. With Ross coming off a 2-inning outing due to a blister, and his metrics indicating major regression, this is a bad matchup for him. On the other side we have Garcia, whose 3.3 SIERA is indicative of around 30th mark out of 150, or a low-end #1 starter. His K-rate of 28% is elite, as is his ability to get lefties out. Nationals have a 19th ranked offense, which is primarily reliant on Harper and Murphy, two left-handers who are two of the best hitters in the league so far this season. If Garcia can neutralize these two, Nationals’ offense won’t be able to do much in this game. Finally, even if this game is close late, STL have a huge edge in the BP. Papelbon has appeared in 2 straight and looked very shaky yesterday, so I doubt he’s available tonight. Cardinals’ key relievers are all very well rested. My model hast this game at -170 Cards, and I agree that value is clearly on them here.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Islanders +150 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. Frankly, there isn’t a thing we trust about the Bolts. We don’t trust Ben Bishop in goal, we don’t trust their weak defense and while they have some scorers and depth up front, aside from Jonathan Drouin, the majority of the others are not hungry enough. The Bolts defeated the Red Wings because they were the better of two weak hockey teams. Detroit was simply a little more awful than the Bolts were.
Ben Bishop is considered to be one of the league’s best but what we see is a guy fighting the puck all the time. He makes stops mostly because he takes up the entire net but his positioning is weak and it’s one of the reasons he’s had so many bad games over the years. Great goaltenders have off games from time to time but Bishop has had too many bad games to be regarded as highly as he is. Dude gets yanked often and the Islanders may have found his greatest weakness, as they were shooting low to the right corner the entire game. Watch for that here too.
The Islanders are an enigmatic bunch to be sure. They have depth, they have defense and Thomas Greiss in goal has been outstanding in these playoffs. What we don’t fully grasp is how poorly the Islanders played in the final six to eight weeks of the regular season after looking so good for the first four months. The Isles regularly were dominated in those final weeks but appear to be coming on again. They had some great moments in their series against the Panthers but they were fortunate to win Game 1 of this series after scoring four times on 21 shots on goal (they added an empty netter to seal it). For the most part, the Isles were flat in Game 1 but we’ll see what they’re made of here with a chance to go up 2-0. While we regrettably missed the value being offered in Game 1, we’re not going to miss it here in Game 2. An Islanders loss here would be of no surprise but the Lightning are too vulnerable to not make this wager. It’s all about value and in that regard, there is only one way to go here.
Updated Series Wager - Pittsburgh +165 over WASHINGTON
We could play the Penguins today at +106 but much prefer the +165 series takeback because if Pittsburgh loses today, our wager is still alive. If they win, we get great value. The Capitals won Game 1 in overtime on a T.J. Oshie goal that sent the Verizon Center into a frenzy. The Penguins outshot the Caps 45-35 but goaltender Braden Holby was the difference for Washington. Actually that’s not true, as it was another fortunate one-goal win for the Capitals, a fine line they continue to tow. Puck luck was the difference in Game 1. We talked about the Caps puck luck before Game 1 and it was in full force again, as they were the second best team on the ice. Washington is a very good team but they’re playing a dangerous game.
The Pens can strike at any time but what sticks out to us more than anything in Game 1 is that they had little trouble getting pucks to the net. Pittsburgh is so deep that they don’t need Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin to have big games or to produce to win. Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino Phil Kessel, Kris Letang, Conor Sheary, Patric Hornqvist, Bryan Rust and Chris Kunitz make up an abundance of legit secondary scorers for this dangerous visitor. There’s also the distinct possibility of Crosby and/or Malkin going off too. The Crosby line was a -3 last game out but they figure to be much better the rest of the way and we don't expect them to be minus when this series is over.
The perception in the market is that while these teams are closely matched, the Caps have a big advantage in net with Holtby. We disagree. We've been fans of Matt Murray since his call up and believe he's a star in the making. Holtby is solid, but the gap between the two isn't huge. The first game of this series was decided by the slimmest of margins and it was won by the inferior team on the ice. When we look at puck possession, high quality scoring chances, depth, defense and everything else, we still see the Penguins as the team that will move onto the next round providing the luck factor is equal. The Penguins are playing at an incredibly high level and we’re not about to ignore that.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +104 over OAKLAND
Jesse Hahn makes his first start of the year after missing the second half of last year with a flexor tendon injury. Hahn made a bunch of starts for the A’s the past two seasons, 28 to be exact, and his numbers are very good. In 170 frames over his brief career, Hahn has allowed just 155 hits for an oppBA of .228. In those 28 starts (and two relief appearances), he has only been tagged for nine jacks. However, Hahn’s flexor tendon injury comes after missing the better part of two years after Tommy John surgery and he did not make the team out of spring training either. In his first five Cactus League starts, Hahn posted an ERA of 11.15. Over his last four starts for Nashville of the Pacific Coast League, Hahn worked 17.2 innings and allowed 16 hits, walked 9 and struck out 13. The Pacific Coast League is a pure hitter’s league so Hahn’s numbers in those four starts are not bad at all, other than the walks, so maybe, just maybe, this will work out okay. If healthy, seeds of a solid mid-rotation starter are firmly planted but he might need some starts to get his confidence and strength back at this level. What’s interesting is that his first two PCL league starts on April 8th and 13th respectively were outstanding but his last two were shaky. Hahn could be playable down the road but he’s not playable as the chalk right now.
After Michael Feliz threw 107 pitches in a game back in early April, the Astronauts replaced him in the bullpen with starter Chris Devenski. Since Devenski was scheduled to be the opening night starter for Triple-A Fresno, he was certainly in a position to give the Astros mop-up innings immediately if needed. The 25-year-old right-hander is a 6'3", 195-pound command-oriented starter. Repeating Double-A last year, he saw his skills jump significantly, as his walk rate was cut nearly in half while his strikeout rate held near the 8K’s/9 mark. His home run rate also normalized, which helped lower his ERA to 3.01. Devenski has a solid 93-mph fastball that he likes to use early in the count. He’ll then deploy his plus change-up at 83 mph. His third pitch, the curve, needs more work. With his typical strong control, he isn't afraid to waste a pitch to deceive the hitter. With improvement to his curve, and learning not to leave the ball high in the zone at times, he can reach his potential in the majors. He had a nice season in Double-A last year, and made his first Triple-A start in the national final game where he threw six perfect innings with nine strikeouts. In six games so far at this level, all in relief, Devenski has walked one batter in 14 innings while striking out 12. His 13% swing and miss rate offers up more optimism. Of course, those were all relief innings but Devenski is a pure starter that offers up more value than his mound opponent and therefore we’ll play this one in five innings.
BALTIMORE -1½ +141 over Chicago
Yesterday, we played the Orioles on the run line but that choice was geared more towards fading the White Sox, a strategy we are going to employ for the next 15-20 games. Chicago has now lost two in a row but they are not done yet. Its 16-8 record is still in for a massive correction, which is the reason for the fade. Chicago is a below average outfit that just happened to get off to a great start but it’s all smoke and mirrors. So is Mat Latos’ 4-0 record, 0.74 ERA and 0.82 WHIP after four starts. Latos has a BB/K split of 7/13 in 24 innings. He’s not missing bats with one of the weakest swing and miss rates among starters at 6%. Every hard hit ball has been hit right at someone. There are more problems too with this stiff. A 13% hit rate, a 91% strand rate, and 0% hr/f tell us that Latos has received an incredible amount of luck from the baseball heavens. His base skills give him the profile of a 4.50 ++ ERA arm. There's a BIG correction coming for Latos and this is the perfect venue for that to occur in.
We’ll discuss Kevin Gausman at greater length a bit later on but for now, we’ll make it short and sweet. Shoulder tendinitis cost Gausman most of May and June last year but by the final two months, he was flashing top-prospect form. Gausman is slowly rediscovering his prior strong first-pitch rate and while a little more success vs RH batters would help, there is something good brewing here. Frankly, we are not concerned about how Gausman performs here. We like his upside but it matters not because we would be playing the O’s here regardless of which starter was taking the mound. The South Side fade continues.
San Diego (5 innings) +170
The Dodgers lost again last night to run their losing streak to five games. While much of the market will turn to the bankroll killing “due to win” angle, we’re suggesting that with each passing loss, snapping it becomes even more difficult. Aside from that, there is the price and when we see great value, we simply must play it. That applies here.
Ross Stripling owns a nifty 3.22 ERA after four starts but a deeper look tells us we shouldn't buy into his decent start. Save for a groundball tilt, his base skills have not been good: 6.4 K’s/9, 4.0 BB’s/9 with a xERA of 5.46. Stripling’s 8% swing and miss rate and 60% first pitch strike rate does not give hope for a command surge. A 24% hit rate, 80% strand rate and 0.4% hr/f have driven his shiny surface stats. He's not someone who should be priced in this range because he’s not even an average pitcher. We absolutely understand that Chavez Ravine can make a lot of pitchers look good but that actually works to the underdog’s advantage. Rarely is a team out of it at this park, which is one of the reasons this price is so appealing.
Colin Rea brings a 5.06 ERA into this, his fifth start of the season. That ugly surface stat is what will drive much of the market away but not us. Rea also brings pitchability, location, and deception, with a ground ball tilt. What he lacks in premium velocity, he makes up for by throwing strikes with four average pitches. There’s a fastball that works in the low 90s, a cutter that sniffs 90 mph, a curveball with tight spin, and what has been the difference maker over the last season for Rea, his newfound splitter. With it, he’s been better able to neutralize lefties, something that bogged him down in the lower levels. At 6’5”, 225 pounds, Rea, gets a steep angle to the plate, allowing all his pitches to stay low in the zone. He struggled a bit in Triple-A over a small sample size with his control, which followed him to the majors last year. Without premium heat, the margins are smaller for Rea, for when things aren’t working, he’s proven to be much too hittable. Still, he’s allowed three runs or less in all of his starts save for one in Colorado. That start in Colorado is why his ERA is 5.06. Over his last 17 innings, Rea has struck out 14 and walked five batters. Rea is not elite but he doesn’t have to be. He brings risk for sure but he also has upside and he’s trending the right way. Most importantly, he’s not the one spotting -175 or thereabouts. Another nice overlay here.
Bob Balfe
Thunder +6.5
The Spurs were almost flawless this year at home, but the Thunder have matched up well with them as of late. Westbrook and Durant are superstars that have played together for some time now. This is a team that has been geared up to take that next big step for quite sometime now. This spread is a little too high. Take the Thunder.
Tigers -125
The Twins have started out this season poorly and now have to face Jordan Zimmermann who has allowed just one earned run in 26 innings of play. Zimmermann has a .035 ERA and has yet to allow a run on the road. This price has great value for a great pitcher and on a superior team. Take the Tigers.