Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, April 8th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

BRAVES AT PIRATES
PLAY: OVER 8

Note there is still some juiced 7.5 available on this game as I’m writing this. But the consensus number is now 8, so I’ll use that number here.

RA Dickey and Chad Kuhl are the slated starters for the Saturday clash between the Braves and Pirates. There are a couple of injuries to note here. Matt Kemp did a little something to a hammy on Friday night and his status for this game is up in the air. Likewise, Bucs infielder David Freese might also end up sitting this one out. Check the lineups once they’re available for updated information.

As for the matchup, my homework indicates there ought to be some scoring in this ballgame. Weather is not a concern, as it should be a mild evening in Pittsburgh and whatever breeze there is won’t hurt the offenses.

I’m not especially enamored with either Dickey or Kuhl. I think almost everyone knows about Dickey. The old knuckleballer is still good enough to be a back of the rotation option but that’s about it. As for Kuhl, he’s a grinder. The Bucs righty won’t often rack up many K’s, and I don’t see more than average stuff. Okay fastball, average slider. Kuhl’s game is to avoid free passes, try and induce soft contact and keep the baseball in the park. He looks to me like a reasonable back of the rotation type who won’t throw many gems, but will also do well enough to give his team a chance to win.

Another factor here is the state of the two bullpens. I graded both the Braves and Pirates on the below average side of the ledger prior to the start of the season, and that opinion has at least been somewhat validated off the early results. That means a chance to get some late inning runs either way, which can sure be helpful when trying to get scores on the board.

I made this total 9, so there was a good deal of value at the early 7.5 number that was posted. The Over got hit right away and has risen accordingly, but I still see that being the way to play this game. I’ll call it Over 8 between the Braves and Pirates.

Ray Monohan

Celtics vs. Hornets
Play: Celtics -1

This play just missed out on our premium card. The Boston Celtics look for their fourth straight win over the Hornets when the two teams meet up on Saturday night. The Celtics come into this game struggling which has put the line closer the it normally would be, and makes it a great value for you. With the Cavaliers loss on Friday night there is still a chance the Celtics can get the number one seed in the East, so they will come out really motivated in this game.

Now I don't think this game is going to be easy, but the Hornets have nothing to play for in this game. Some trends to note. Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Hornets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. NBA Atlantic. Celtics are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Charlotte. Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

There is no way the Hornets can keep it that close.

Brandon Lee

Royals vs. Astros
Play: Astros -1½

The Astros have dropped two in a row after a 3-0 start to the season and are in a prime bounce back spot at home with their ace and former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel on the mound. I was really impressed with what I saw from Keuchel in his first start against a solid Mariners lineup. He allowed just 2 hits over 7 shutout innings. I look for more of the same against a pretty average Royals offense. KC counters with Danny Duffy, who looked good in his first start, but it was against the Twins. Duffy is the ace of KC, but he's really a good No. 2 starter for most teams. He has a 5.40 career ERA in 3 starts against the Astros and I look for him to struggle on the road and for Houston to win here by multiple runs.

Mike Lundin

Blue Jays vs. Rays
Play: Rays -118

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays have split the first two games of this four-game set. The Rays won Friday's contest 10-8 and I think they have the edge here with Chris Archer on the mound. Archer held the Yankees to two runs on seven hits in seven innings in his season debut, and he's a solid 6-4 with a 3.23 ERA in 19 career starts versus Toronto. Archer has given up two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts against the Blue Jays who hand the ball to Aaron Sanchez. The 24 year old had a rough spring where he posted an 8.44 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work. He'll make his season debut here and might still be affected by a finger injury sustained during the spring.

Jesse Schule

Dodgers vs. Rockies
Play: Dodgers -1½

Colorado's Coors Field is the most intimidating ballpark in the majors for pitchers, but that doesn't seem to apply to Clayton Kershaw. He's 8-0 with a 1.91 ERA in nine starts versus the Rockies since 2014, and he's 3-0 with a 2.81 ERA in four starts at Coors Field during that span.

Kershaw was dealing on Opening Day, going seven strong innings, striking out eight and allowing just one earned run. The Rockies lineup is batting just .214 with a whopping 76 strikeouts over a combined 243 at bats.

The Rockies hand the ball to Jon Gray, who was rocked in his season debut. The right-hander gave up five runs on six hits and a pair of walks over just four innings, not factoring in the decision in a 7-5 win at Milwaukee. The Dodgers have hit him pretty good as well, batting a combined .297 with five home runs in 91 at bats.

Jim Feist

Flames vs. Sharks
Play:Flames +125

Calgary has great balance, #15 in goals scored, #14 in goals allowed, with Top 11 specialty units. They are off a 4-1 win at the LA Kings, part of a 16-6 run. The Flames can now assure themselves a first-round matchup against the top team in the Pacific Division with a win against San Jose or a Nashville loss at Winnipeg on Saturday. "We want to ramp it up and make sure we're playing in that game as we want to play in Game 1," one player said of the season finale. "It's a big game, we can use it that way." The Flames are 14-6 in their last 20 games playing on 1 days rest. San Jose has been struggling down the stretch, on a 3-9 run. And the Flames are 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.

Dustin Hawkins

Indians vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -110

Zach Greinke is 88-46 against the money line in home games in night games since 1997.Coach Terry Francona is only 41-55 against the money line in April games as the manager of Cleveland.

Jimmy Boyd

Indians vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -104

I really like the value here with Arizona as a short home favorite against the Indians. The Diamondbacks won the series opener last night 7-3 and are now 4-1 after taking 3 of 4 against he Giants to open the season. Arizona's offense is on point right now, as they are averaging 6.8 runs/game. I like their chances of keeping it going against Indians No. 5 starter Trevor Bauer, who had a 4.26 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 28 starts last year. On the flip side of this the Diamondbacks are sending out their ace Zach Greinke, who helped Arizona to a win in his first start going opposite of Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. I'm expecting a big bounce back year from Greinke and I'm more than willing to ride him at home at basically a pick'em until he blows up.

Mike Anthony

Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia +5.5

Philadelphia have shown they could bounce back after the most difficult of times. Philadelphia's terrible record is the product of playing in a pretty stretched out conference where there are too many superstar led teams to deal with. They are a decent team with a positive future. So I will go ahead and say Philadelphia is in the exact same situation in this game at home. Milwaukee have some very talented young players especially Giannis Antetokounmpo - so they obviously have the potential to make some defenses nervous. But then the overall offensive output of Milwaukee hasn't been putting up pts at a great rate for them either. Milwaukee doesn't exactly blow teams away teams with their defense either. Matchup issue here, on the road. Philadelphia gets their revenge and a rare home win on Saturday night.

Brandon Shively

Dodgers vs. Rockies
Play: Dodgers -1½

The Los Angeles Dodgers sat out a couple key players on Friday. They should be back with their full lineup ready to go on Saturday. Los Angeles scored only one run against a rookie lefty on Friday. The Dodgers had trouble hitting lefties last year, and they have started out having trouble with lefties again this year.

For this one, they don't have to face a lefty. Jon Gray is a right handed youngster who has good stuff, but is prone to blowup innings occasionally. The Dodgers will finish this season as one of the best offenses in the majors against right handed pitchers. Gray isn't likely to be able to get through this lineup without quite a bit of damage being done.

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and the Dodgers have won 7 straight starts made by Kershaw at Coors Field. The moneyline is too expensive for me here, but the run line is a good value. The Dodgers have the advantage everywhere in this one. The much better starter as well as the much better bullpen. While you think of the Rockies as a great offense, this Dodgers offense is definitely better, especially agianst right handed pitching.

Doc's Sports

Boston at Detroit
Play: Over 8.5

Last season Rick Porcello took home the AL Cy Young award. He was 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 33 starts. It was obviously a career year for Porcello, who kind of crept up from nowhere to grab the award. As a result, there's going to be some regression for the right-hander, whose career ERA is still 4.20 in eight seasons. The big question is how much. If you look at his peripheral stats (K/BB ratio, GB%, xFIP, etc.) he was basically the same pitcher that he was in 2015 when he posted a 4.92 ERA for the Red Sox. That puts him on the OVER list for 2017 in my book. The Tigers are scheduled to send right-hander Matt Boyd to the hill in this one. He's still trying to figure it out at the big league level after posting a 5.64 ERA in two seasons in the majors. Both of these teams' strengths are their deep lineups from top to bottom. They are going to give these two pitchers everything they can handle on Saturday, so we're going to go OVER the total for our Free Play selection.

Raphael Esparza

Will Brooks (-260) over Charles Oliveira

I know this number is high at -260, but I'm actually shocked that Will Brooks is not -350 or higher. Charles Oliveria has dropped 3 out of his last 4 fights and back-to-back fights while Will Brooks is coming off a loss from Alex Oliveria. Before that loss Brooks had a two-fight winning streak, and Saturday night I see Brooks using his speed and jabs being too much for Charles Oliveria. Brooks is a well-rounded fighter and if he doesn't do something stupid in the octagon Saturday he should have no problem coming out on top.

Dave Essler

Boston / Detroit Over 8.5

Best early game IMO I simply don't agree with the move off of 9 both teams should get to four runs the weather wasn't an issue yesterday. E-Rod CAN be lethal but on the road he's struggled. Zimmerman in the AL (with a DH) is simply not as effective. Boston has a better pen, but not much, and E-Rod rarely lasts much more than five innings. Detroit's bullpen was used up pretty good yesterday -they scored all those runs WITHOUT Betts/Bogaerts, etc- and today's HP umpire is more or less neutral over the years, but a slight trend up the last couple of years. The weather (cold) wasn't much of a factor yesterday, so there's no reason to think it might be today.

Eric Schroeder

My free play for tonight is the Washington Wizards over the Miami Heat.

I can't figure out the Heat, to be quite honest. But I do know the Wizards are trying to keep pace with the Toronto Raptors as the season winds down.

Washington is one-half game back of the Raptors, who play in New York tomorrow.

Miami is 27-11 since Jan., 13, but the Heat are also mired in a 3-5 slump, too. And because they'll be focused on what is going on elsewhere in the league, before taking the court, I don't know how mentally focused this team will be on the road.

Washington is 30-10 at home, where the Wizards desperatley need to improve their defensive game. Overall, especially the past five games, it's been an area of concern. That should spark the Wizards to clamp down tonight, and neutralize a Heat lineup that averages just 99.7 on the highway.

Take the Wizards, who pull away late for the win and cover.

1* WIZARDS