Brandon Shively
Notre Dame vs. N.C. State
Pick: No. Carolina St
I like N.C. State Saturday afternoon as they fall into a ‘situational’ theory where we like to ‘buy on bad news and sell on good news’. The bad news went viral went coach Mark Godfrey got fired earlier this week. NC state has obviously been in a funk and have underachieved this season.
There were glimpses of a Top 25 team. Then it disappeared. I expect these kids to leave it all on the court today in honor and respect for their coach. The talent for NC State is there, it’s just a matter of performing. I feel they will leave it all on the floor this afternoon, in respect of their coach.
Notre Dame has not impressed me this year and I honestly feel that N.C. State has the more athletic team with better ball players and are equipped with more depth. Given N.C. State is going to have to play the full 40 minutes but if they do that, they cover this spread I feel. The Irish are a high IQ team, but not overly talented. Notre Dame has really struggled as a road favorite in the ACC since 2014. They are only 2-6 ATS as a road favorite from 3 to 8 points vs the ACC. Coming off a win, the Irish are 0-4 ATS vs the ACC their L4 as a road favorite since 2/27/2016. They have not been dominant on the road this year either as they have not won a road game by more than 8 points and 4 of those road games have been decided by 5 points or less.
ACC Home Dogs are 26-16 ATS this year, hitting at a 61.9% clip. When the spread has been in between +5 and +10, these home dogs are 6-0 ATS this year when their opponent is coming off a win. With Notre Dame going winless (0-4 SU) since 2014 on the road vs the ACC and a same season revenger on deck. That’s again the case here as Notre Dame plays Georgia Tech next Sunday. Look for N.C. State to have more energy, motivation, and focus in this 12:00 EAST tip.
MMA Profitcy
Emelianenko vs Mitrione
Pick: Mitrione
The return of Fedor Emelianenko(+105) has die hard MMA fans excited. While his days of fighting under the Pride banner in Japan are long gone, his fans are still hoping for the flashes of greatness that is Fedor. With Mitrione (-125), there is more than meets the eye. He has thunderous power in his hands, unorthodox striking, and loves to brawl. Fedor's chin is a huge liability, and with heavyweights, one clean shot is all it will take. If we look at Fedor's most recent outing, he should have been finished in the first round by Maldonado (who was cut from the UFC) but poor officiating kept that fight going. While Mitrione is certainly not going to dominate any major MMA organization, and he has chin issues of his own, I still see him getting to Fedor's chin first and winning the fight.
Jim Feist
Utah St at Nevada
Pick: Under
Utah State heads out on the road on an 8-1 run under the total, 4-0 under away. The Nevada Wolf Pack (20-6, 9-4 Mountain West) are playing great defense, on a 5-1 run under the total. The Pack will look to avenge a loss at Utah State just weeks ago, where the Aggies topped Nevada 74-57. Nevada has won two of the last three matchups against Utah State. And the Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Nevada.
Nelly
Mississippi at Arkansas
Play: Mississippi +5.5
Arkansas got the win it needed to solidify its NCAA Tournament chances with a stunning upset at South Carolina on Wednesday. It was just their night, shooting nearly 54 percent while South Carolina shot 27 percent from beyond the arc. The up-tempo Razorbacks are 3-3 S/U at home in SEC play and two of those wins came vs. the bottom two teams in the conference Missouri and LSU. Arkansas has greatly benefitted from facing those two teams twice each in 13 SEC games, though they lost at Missouri two weeks ago. The schedule for Arkansas rates as the very weakest at this point among the 14 SEC squads, playing the top three teams just once each at this point. Mississippi has turned in back-to-back wins and this has been a competitive team with five of six SEC losses coming by 11 or fewer points. The Rebels have three SEC road wins and Andy Kennedy’s team has the top rate of creating turnovers in the conference which is important in a matchup of up-tempo teams in a game that should feature a high possession count. Despite the weak schedule five of the eight league wins for Arkansas have come by eight or fewer points. Despite an 8-6 record the past 14 games Arkansas has been outscored by 14 points in that run while Ole Miss has outscored foes by 23 points in the last 12 SEC games. The Rebels are a great free throw shooting team and an excellent offensive rebounding team and home court in SEC play has been virtually meaningless this season with hosts 47-44 S/U as the road underdog points are very alluring with the far superior defensive team catching Arkansas off its biggest win of the season.
David Banks
Virginia @ North Carolina
Pick: Virginia +4.5
The top two teams in the ACC meet on Saturday night when No. 12 Virginia travels to Chapel Hill to take on eighth-ranked North Carolina (21-5, 9-3). The Cavaliers are heading through their own version of ‘Murderers Row’ in ACC play. They beat 14th-ranked Notre Dame before dropping a two-point decision to then No. 1 Villanova. Virginia beat fourth-ranked Louisville last week but lost in overtime to Virginia Tech on Sunday night. Now, the Cavaliers (18-6, 8-4) must face No. 18 Duke before facing the Tar Heels on Saturday.
For Virginia, it’s all about defense. Head coach Tony Bennett’s Cavs are the nation’s best defensive team giving up just 54 points per game. Virginia is at its best when it holds opponents under 60. The Cavaliers have won every game in which they held their opponent to under 60 points. Saturday’s game is actually the first of two with North Carolina. Virginia needs to finish strong if it going to improve upon its No. 3 seeding released by the selection committee last weekend. While the Cavaliers are all about defense, the offense relies on experienced senior guard London Perrantes who averages 12.2 points per game. He is the only Virginia player that averages double figures per game.
Virginia will have to find a way to slow down the nation’s sixth-best scoring team. Justin Jackson leads the Tar Heels with an average of 18.7 points per game. Joel Berry II (14.9), Isaiah Hicks (12.8 ), and Kennedy Meeks (12.4) all average in double figures for North Carolina which averages 87.4 points per game. The Tar Heels face a tough schedule to close the season taking on Virginia then fourth-ranked Louisville before facing the Cavaliers again and closing the year with rival Duke.
Mike Rose
Kentucky at Georgia
Play: Kentucky -7.5
You have to go back to March of 2013 to find the last time Georgia got the best of Kentucky. They’ll enter this tilt losers of seven straight in the recent rivalry and only covered two of those games with one occurring in the first meeting. The worst part about blowing a big lead and then ultimately losing in overtime was the fact that Kentucky was still able to beat them without one of their best players on the court. De’Aaron Fox missed that game with an illness, but will be healthy and ready to go for this one.
With him back in the fold to distribute the basketball and Kentucky already showing it can handle the Dawgs on the glass, I don’t foresee J.J. Frazier and company coming out of this one with a win or cover. With Florida now down a major contributor, Kentucky’s path to the league’s outright title has opened up. Look for Calipari’s kids to take advantage and steamroll their way to the decisive win and cover in Athens.
Virginia at North Carolina
Play: Virginia +5
The outcome of this game completely falls on the Cavaliers ability to match points with the more potent Tar Heels. Though Virginia owns the top ranked scoring defense in the land, UNC is going to get theirs like they do against everybody. Whether UVA can answer is what will determine how this game plays out. North Carolina concedes an average of 72.1 PPG and allows the opposition to drain nearly 35 percent of their long range bombs. Virginia must make its shots count in this one both from short and long range to have any shot of winning this game.
It’s clear as day that this Virginia team isn’t cut from the same cloth as prior versions. Having said that, it’s still a darn good team that’s been humbled over the last couple weeks. The defense is still playing some lights out ball. Over its last five games, it’s given up an average of just 58.5 PPG when you omit the overtime loss to Virginia Tech from the equation. I expect it to once again be up to the challenge of taking on the Heels #6 ranked scoring attack. Look for London Perrantes and the Wahoo’s defense to put a scare into Chapel Hill on Saturday night.
Executive Sports
Virginia at North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -5
N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts this season. Williams is 21-10 ATS in home games versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots as the coach of NC. NC is averaging over 50% from the field in their past 4 games. Looking to stay on top the ACC, Tar Heels win big at home today!
Bob Balfe
Clemson +4
Miami lost a lot of players from last year and now today will be without Newton so they are really starting to get limited in players who can move the ball up court and 15 pts per game is off the court. Clemson has the experience and players to get a road win here and should do so with ease.
North Carolina -5 over Virginia
Virginia has been in a slide and although they are great on defense they have looked human their last few games. This is a team that is going to beat teams in close games, but UNC is just an amazing team at putting the ball in the basket. Teams that can score a lot and have talented 1 on 1 athletes give this team trouble. UVA just does not have the scoring to keep up.
Purdue -9.5
Michigan State is not a good road team and today will be playing a great team at home that plays excellent defense and scores over 80 points per game at home. Michigan State just does not have a dominant rebounder that can get second chance and keep second chance points from happening. Purdue should have their way early and go wire to wire.
Harry Bondi
BOWLING GREEN +11 over Ohio University
Bowling Green got blitzed by Ohio U last month on its home floor, 96-72, as a 7-point home dog, but they were without four suspended players in that game, including leading scorer Zack Denny. So you can expect a top effort from the revenge-minded Falcons here today against a team it has gone 21-16 ATS in the last 37 meetings, including a 91-75 win on this floor last year when they were 10-point dogs. In fact, Bowling Green has covered six of last 10 games as dog this season and dating back the last three seasons the team is 25-15 ATS when catching points. It’s an overlay. Take the double digits!
Jimmy Boyd
Xavier vs. Marquette
Play: Marquette -3½
I like the value here with the Golden Eagles as a short home favorite against Xavier. The Musketeers are a hurting unit right now. They lost one of their best players in Edmond Sumner to a season ending injury and played their last game at providence without their most important player in Trevon Bluiett. He sat out with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable. Note that game was on Wednesday, so not a lot of time to recover. Even if he plays, he's not going to be 100% for this game.
That should be more than enough for Marquette to take this one at home. The Golden Eagles have an 11-3 record at home this season and desperately need a win here to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Expect an electric atmosphere, as it's "National Marquette Day," which is an all-day event. The game is sold out. Xavier is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 off a road loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after playing the previous game as an underdog.
Ben Burns
UCLA -9½
Both these teams have had strong seasons and this is a big game for each. Playing at home, playing with revenge and playing with positive momentum, I expect the Bruins to have the edge. The Trojans knocked off the Bruins by eight, at USC, when the teams played there on 1/26. That was their biggest victory in a recent 5-game winning streak. However, their momentum came to a halt last game, a double-digit loss at Oregon. On the other hand, the Bruins have responded to the loss at USC with four straight victories, most recently a 16-point win. That game marked the first time in 2017 (and since 11/30) that they'd allowed 60 or fewer points. I look for the Bruins to build off that effort, avenging the earlier loss and improving to 9-5 ATS the last 14 times that they had allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game.
Brandon Lee
Nebraska vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -4½
The Buckeyes are worth a look here against the Cornhuskers. Ohio State comes in having lost their last two. Both on the road against Maryland and Michigan State. They were competitive in both and I look for them to rebound here at home against Nebraska. Ohio State is a strong 12-4 at home, compared to 3-8 on the road, yet they were able to win at Nebraska earlier this season. The Cornhuskers come in off a 16-point win at home against Penn State, but are still just 2-8 in their last 10 conference games. Nebraska is also just 1-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons when revenging a same season loss, while Ohio State is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after 2 more consecutive losses.
Alex Smart
Kansas State vs. Texas
Play: Texas +2
Kansas State has really struggled lately as is evident by having lost 6 of their L/7. I know Texas has not played all that much better, but they have been very competitive covering 9 of their L/14 , especially on their own floor where their last 6 games have been decided by 4 points or less. Now with revenge on board, for a 65-62 loss in Kstate back on Dec 30 of this season, I expect the Longhorns to stand tall here, and get us the cover in vengeful fashion
TEXAS is 10-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent dating back to last season. KANSAS ST is 4-17 ATS L/21 as a road favorite of 3 points or less .TEXAS is 14-4 ATS L/18 as a home underdog of 3 points or less or pick . Texas is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series including 2-0 ATS at home.
Tony Karpinski
Northern Arizona vs. Southern Utah
Play: Northern Arizona +1½
Both teams rank in the bottom 25 of all the Div I teams but will take points with the team playing much better. Northern Arizona is 3-3 SU their last 6 games and covered 5 straight before losing to Montana. Actually prefer them being off a SU/ATS loss as they can rebound off their worst shooting performance of the year (32.1%) while allowing on of their worst %’ on defensive (53.7%). Southern Utah has lost 11 straight games and are coming off their best shooting % of the entire season as they hit 54.2% and still lost.
Matt Josephs
Rhode Island vs. George Mason
Play: George Mason +3½
Rhode Island has been a huge disappointment as they head to the A-10's biggest surprise in Fairfax. George Mason is 18-8, 9-5 at home. They've covered in 12 of their 16 games against teams with a winning record this season. Marquis Moore is averaging a double double to go with a couple of other double digit scorers. This is a URI team that has lost two straight at home to Dayton and Fordham. They also have some headscratching losses to La Salle by 12 at home and an ugly 11 point loss at Richmond. To me, I wonder about their psyche and if they can get up for this one. I'll take the home dog.