Brad Diamond
Elon vs. Drexel
Play: Elon -2
The Dragons lost another dandy last time down in Delaware by one point. Now they have to suit up at home to face Elon who destroyed them 93-73 back in January. Last time out Elon was CRUSHED by Towson, so this is definitely a jump back angle favoring the visitor. Add in Drexel (9-19) has been a loser at home ATS 8-17-2, 6-14-2 ATS as a dog, you have some decent props that point to Elon. In the series, the road team is 6-1 ATS, while the Phoenix is a PERFECT 4-0 ATS in the CAA.
Chip Chirimbes
Notre Dame vs. NC State
Play: NC State +5½
Six straight ACC losses have cost Mike Gottried his job who took the Wolfpack to the 'Big Dance' his first four season but this and last season have been a disappointment. Notre Dame enters on the 3-game run after having dropped 4-in-a-row. The Irish are 6-5 straight-up in away games 6-4-1 ATS. With the guilt of getting their coach fired the kids will give a special effort against Notre Dame.
Teddy Davis
Clemson vs. Miami
Play: Miami -3½
I will gladly lay the short number here @ home with Miami. This is a team right now that simply can't afford a loss @ home or to a team below them as they are on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. Clemson is getting respect because of their recent road game @ Duke losing by 2, but Duke was coming off North Carolina win. Miami is 5-2 their last 7 with losses coming to Florida St and Louisville two of the best teams in the ACC. Miami takes care of business today
Art Aronson
Panthers vs. Kings
Play: Kings -149
Last night we gave out a free play on the Columbus Blue Jackets at home against the Penguins. If you didn’t get a chance to read that analysis, it’s worth a look as tonight’s play sets up similarity:
Seems like a good spot to pull the trigger on Columbus. If this was a seven game series, would we take the Blue Jackets over the Penguins? Probably not. However, from a situational stand point this one sets up great for the home side. first off, Pittsburgh won 4-3 in OT over the Jets at home just last night (a game that it led for most of the way, only to then cough up the lead, before tying it late and notching the victory in the extra frame). Clearly the Pens are going to be tired tonight in the second game of the back-to-back. Columbus has had a night off after crushing the Leafs 5-2 and will be eager to avenge a 4-3 OT loss of its own in Pittsburgh just two weeks ago. All things considered, we think that COLUMBUS offers pretty good value in this spot.
Florida comes in off three straight road wins, including a very satisfying 4-1 victory in Anaheim just last night. LA will be risking life and limb as its lost three of its last four including a brutal 5-3 setback at home to lowly Arizona last time out. We feel that LA is worth a second look in this matchup.
Larry Ness
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Pick: South Carolina
No. 21 South Carolina is 20-6, including 10-3 in the SEC. That record leaves them just one game behind Florida and Kentucky, which are both 11-2. Bryce Drew (Valpo) is in his first season at Nashville and his Commodores are 13-13 overall, including 6-7 in SEC play. The Gamecocks lost at home to Arkansas on Wednesday but will be seeking a fourth straight SEC road victory tonight at Vanderbilt.
The Commodores won 72-67 at home over Texas A&M on Thursday but had lost two of three prior to that win. Thanks to a few nice wins against the country's sixth-toughest RPI schedule, Vandy is still dreaming of an NCAA at-large bid but this team would need quite a finishing 'kick' to pull that off. Guards Fisher-Davis (15.2) and LaChance (10.0 & 4.1 APG) are balanced nicely by the frontcourt duo of the 7-1 Kornet (13.5 & 5.9) and the 6-6 Roberson (10.7 & 7.3) but a matchup with South Carolina is not a good one for the 'Dores.
Vanderbilt leads the SEC in three-point percentage (38.3) and made three-point FGs (10 per game 10) but South Carolina has defended "the three" better than any team in the nation, holding opponetst to just 28.1 percent from beyond the arc. Defensively, teams make a modest 39.3% of all FGs (15th) and score just 63.8 PPG (30th) against the Gamecocks. Big guards Thornwell at 6-5 (20.1 & 7.0) and Dozier at 6-6 (13.8 & 4.4) both score and defend well. Senior guard Notice (10.3) joins them on the perimeter while the 6-9 Silva (10.0 & 5.9) and the 6-10 Kotsar (6.5 & 5.4) will take on the 7-1 Kornet, up front.
The Gamecocks missed last year's NCAA Tournament because of a late-season swoon and they’re not about to allow a "repeat performance." What's more, the the team's hopes of its first SEC title in two decades is still "alive and well!"
Brad Wilton
Early Saturday comp play winner is Notre Dame minus the points on the road at NC State.
It's official, the Wolf Pack have played so poorly of late, they have cost their coach his job, as Mark Gottfried got the boot earlier this week but will remain to finish out the season.
NC State comes into this game saddled with 6 straight losses, the last 3 coming by double-digits, and 4 of the 6 overall by double-digits.
Notre Dame still has a shot at the ACC regular season title, and the Irish have shaken off their recent woes with wins in each of their last 3 games. The Irish are also 9-4-1 against the spread their last 14 games, and 5-2-1 against the spread their last 8 away from South Bend.
Series numbers show the Irish with wins and covers in the last pair of series meetings.
It would make for a fairy tale ending if State stepped up for their lame-duck coach, but alas this is reality, and the reality is Notre Dame will push through with the road win and cover.
Lay it with Our Lady.
4* NOTRE DAME
Eric Schroeder
I hit Arizona in college hoops Thursday night, and then nailed Columbus last night in the NHL. Looking for complimentary winner # 3 in a row with West Virginia against Texas Tech.
The ninth-ranked Mountaineers have had plenty of time to recover their late-game meltdown at Kansas, and mentally prepare for Texas Tech, which is ripe for a letdown five days after a monumental upset of No. 4 Baylor.
Both teams shift directions here, as West Virginia (20-6, 8-5 Big 12) is looking to rebound after squandering a 14-point lead in the final 2:45 on Big Monday, and letting the Jayhawks walk away with an overtime win. Coach Bob Huggins was at such a loss for the words, he gave his troops two days off this week to regroup.
I expect to see a revitalized team today, one that should have no trouble clamping down on defense against Texas Tech (17-9, 5-8 ).
Besides, the Mountaineers will be in revenge from Jan. 3, when the Red Raiders overtook West Virginia 77-76 in Lubbock. That, too, was in overtime.
The Red Raiders are 0-6 in Big 12 road games, and now face a Mountaineers team that leads the nation with an average of 21.88 turnovers forced per game. Their turnover margin of plus-9.5 per game is also tops in the country, and I expect to see them pressure Tech the entire game.
Play the home team here.
3* WEST VIRGINIA
Jack Brayman
I go from taking points with lowly Cornell in an outright win Friday night, to the No. 1 team in the nation, Gonzaga, laying more than four touchdowns to Pacific.
This one isn't going to come close.
The Bulldogs are looking to extend the nation's longest winning streak, and come in after Thursday's blowout win over San Francisco. And it's not as if Gonzaga's 35-point win was wire-to-wire. The Zags held just a two-point lead with less than three minutes left in the first half.
That means Gonzaga held a 33-point edge over the final 22 minutes of the game.
Tonight the Bulldogs get a Pacific team that is coming off a somewhat surprising 76-65 win at Portland on Thursday.
I'm thinking the Tigers will be a bit hungover from that win, and will look more like the team that lost by 20 to Gonzaga in Stockton, Calif., on New Year's Eve.
The Tigers are hitting a mere 40 percent from the field, which 329th in the nation and face a Gonzaga team that ranks No. 1 in the country, allowing teams to shoot only 37.2 percent.
Lay the big number, as the Zags roll.
2* GONZAGA
Brad Wilton
It's called a "bugaboo", and it is loosely defined as someone or something that vexes you. Something that you can't quite overcome. That happens to be the case when UCLA plays their cross-town rival USC.
UCLA is the higher-ranked team, and they are certainly playing some tip-top basketball, as they have won 4 straight coming into this late-night showdown at Pauley Pavilion. Problem is, the Uclans are just 1-5 against the spread their last 6 games played, and that includes an outright loss to their "bugaboo" USC back on January 25th, 84-76 in a game they entered as the -7 point road favorite!
That loss to the Men of Troy makes it 4 straight up and 4 in a row against the spread losses for the Bruins when facing the Trojans.
USC would like to up their stock when it comes time for Selection Sunday, and a season series sweep over UCLA would certainly go a long way for Andy Enfield's team. Not sure if they get the outright win, but with the double-digits, I see no reason to play against USC.
Trojans plus the points.
2* USC
Wunderdog
Clemson @ Miami
Pick: Miami -165
The Clemson Tigers are not a bad team at 14-11, but the ACC is just over their head at this point. They opened the season at 10-2, but have been 4-9 since. While they played some good teams tough, they simply come up short in most cases. They have lost by five points to Notre Dame, four to Virginia, two to Duke, and by one each to Syracuse and Virginia Tech. They are simply a player short and don't have a closer. Miami is 17-8 on the season because they have a closer, and find a way to win down the stretch. There comes a time where so many close losses wear on a team, and Clemson has allowed 50% or better shooting in six of their last nine, and will come up short once again. Play Miami on the moneyline.
King Creole
Appalachian St. +3.5
Next up, our querying looks at teams who are playing with 'DOUBLE R' from last season. That would be REVENGE from not one, but TWO losses last year. And these teams have gotten that Revenge at a pretty solid percentage, at least from a betting perspective.
48-23-2 ATS last four weeks: All Conference road teams playing with 'LSR2' (last season REVENGE x 2). When playing with the added confidence of a SU and ATS win in their last game, these teams haver gone 19-5 ATS (like the MOUNTAINEERS of APPALACHIAN STATE).
Appalachian State is no stranger to underdog wins. They were home dogs in each of their last games (vs Ga Southern and Ga State) and win 'em BOTH… 16-4 ATS since 1999: All Conference underdogs of +6 or less points off back-to-back conference HOME DOG wins (MOUNTAINEERS) vs any opponent off a SU loss (Jaguars).
The MOUNTAINEERS are 7-1 ATS in their history when playing off a DOG win in their last game vs any opponent off a SU and ATS double digit loss (like the Jags of South Alabama). And meanwhile, SOUTH ALABAMA is 1-7 ATS in their history at home off 3 or more ROAD games in a row.
Sharpest Edge Sports
Iowa -5
Illinois got the best of Iowa and a hobbled Peter Jok in the first meeting in their building. Even though the Big Ten’s leading scorer started and played much of the game, a back ailment flared up and was taking its toll. Jok didn’t look right and scored just 10 points that night. The senior guard who was averaging nearly 21 points per game, averaged just 10 points per game in a four-game stretch that led Iowa to keep him on the bench for two games. Jok is back now for the rematch. Iowa has a thing about rematches in the Big Ten; every time Iowa has played a Big Ten opponent for the second time this season, it has played considerably better than it did the first time. The Hawkeyes were thumped at Purdue, 89-67, in their conference opener, then defeated the Boilermakers, 83-78, at home, two weeks later. They lost a double-overtime at Nebraska, 93-90, then came back to beat the Cornhuskers at home, 81-70. After scratching out a win over Rutgers at home, 68-62, they routed the Scarlet Knights in the rematch, 83-63. They also played poorly in a 76-64 loss at Illinois on January 25, allowing the Illini to jump out to a 10-0 lead from which they couldn’t recover. Now it is time for Round 2. The fact that the Fighting Illini are a bad road team, coupled with Iowa’s success in rematches and the lean goes to the Hawkeyes backed by a hostile home crowd at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City.
Fresno State -3
New Mexico escaped with a 78-73 win at The Pit in late December. A lot has changed since then; most notably the loss of the Lobos all- conference, 2nd leading scorer and leader in rebounding, Tim Williams. While the Lobos have been an admirable 3-1 in his absence, they have shown vulnerability with their depth. Their lone loss without Williams was a home affair against San Jose State that they lost by 10. Fresno State is coming off an 18-point destruction of that same San Jose State at home. The Lobos lack of depth showed itself in their victory over Boise State in their last game when they nearly let a big lead slip away. The Bulldogs on the other hand, have 6 guys who average at least 9.2 points per game and 4 who average at least 5.0 rebounds per game. Production like that is hard to ignore. With a league best 6-1 record at home, the Bulldogs get the lean at the Save Mart Center in Fresno.
SPORTS WAGERS
DRAKE +4½ over Missouri St
The good news here is that someone has to win this game. Both Drake and Missouri State come in on rather grisly notions, as the Bears are riding a four-game losing streak while the host Bulldogs are coming in off of a six-game skid. Missouri State is 15-13 compared to Drake who sits sat 7-20, however, things are not as they appear. For starters, Drake orchestrated a one-point overtime victory on the Bears’ own court as a 9½-point pooch just over a month ago. Additionally, Missouri State is a 3-7 basketball team on the road while Drake is nearly a .500 basketball team in Des Moines, where they are 6-7. Though the two teams display contrasting records overall, they are separated by just a game in the Missouri Valley Conference standings, as Drake is 5-10 in league play compared to Missouri State who sits at 6-9. The point is that the records do not reveal the details of the whole story here and thus those who suspect Missouri State is short-priced here must assess all these variables before arriving at that conclusion but there’s more.
Again, one game separates these two in the conference but in that respect, Drake’s strength of schedule ranks 100th in the country while the favorite’s SOS ranks 181 overall with their out-of-conference schedule ranking a wretched 347th. The Bears are coming off a near upset against the Illinois State Redbirds three days ago, where they would lose by just a point at home. For those who are unfamiliar with Illinois State, they are the chief antagonist in challenging Wichita State for the MVC, as they sit at 22-5, just one game behind the Shockers for the lead in the conference race. Given the high RPI rating of the Redbirds overall, they will likely qualify for the Big Dance even if they do not win the Conference Tournament outright. Now given the fact Missouri State comes in off a hard-fought loss against a highly regarded top-flight team, the Bears may seem like easy money with this low point spread against a far weaker team in comparison. The angle here is the assumption that the Bears can “bounce back” and get off the snide after showing moments of brilliance against a quality opponent, but that is a hazardous assumption to make. The more likely scenario is that this weak visitor blew itself out against a quality opponent and will now fall flat on its face like they usually do. We might be getting the better team at home plus points.
HOUSTON +120 over SMU
The #23 Southern Methodist Mustangs have won nine straight games. SMU is getting a ton of attention since cracking the top-25 with some media outlets saying they'll be a real “sleeper” when the NCAA Tournament rolls around. While their record looks great on paper, we can't ignore the Mustangs do not play the cream of the crop in a Power Five conference. Instead, they beat up on primarily football schools and the leftovers from the Big East. You’re always going to pay a premium with these ranked mid-majors in conference play. SMU was given a scare last time out when they had to rally from 15-points down at home to win over Tulane. That's right, the Mustangs were in danger of losing a home game as a 24-point favorite to one of the worst teams in the nation. SMU is on its way to the Big Dance but be assured that they are not a sleeper. Instead, they are an upset waiting to happen because they have played an extremely weak schedule. The Mustangs also just rallied from nine down with 10 minutes left to beat Cincinnati in a huge game last Sunday so they are coming off two lucky rallies and their time is just about up.
The Houston Cougars are one of the hottest teams in the country that few are talking about. Houston is back in the NCAA Tournament discussion after ripping off five straight wins. It's a sharp contrast to just about a month ago when the Cougars were crushed 85-64 by these Mustangs. Houston point guard Galen Robinson Jr. said, “That game was certainly a turning point.” Head coach Kelvin Sampson said the SMU game was “our bottom”. Now with a ton of momentum, the Cougars control their own density. UH closes the regular season with games against two ranked opponents (SMU, Cincinnati). The Cougars entered the week 58th in the Rating Percentage Index (RPI) which measures wins, losses and strength of schedule. This Cougars’ team is much different than the one SMU caught last month in the tail end of a three-game losing streak and now we get them at home plus a tag in a very good spot. We’re calling the minor upset.
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS -108 over Tampa Bay
OT included. This one is a little bit different because the Stars are a small favorite here playing a team coming off its bye. What we know for sure is that the Stars can put the puck in the net and it’ll really be beneficial if they’re facing Ben Bishop as opposed to Andrei Vasilevskiy. In his career, Bishop is 1-3 against Dallas with a 4.13 goals-against-average and a save percentage of just .871. Most of those weak efforts were when Bishop was better than he is right. Bishop is a goaltender we have never liked, even when he was killing it. He’s a giant in the net but that’s his only attribute. He’s slow and he’s weak in cutting down the angles. He’ll now face a team he’s mentally battled and that is currently getting major production from its top players. Jamie Benn has 19 points over his past 17 games, Tyler Seguin has 12 points over his past 12 games and Patrick Eaves has 12 points over his past 14 games. Furthermore, the Bolts are just 7-13 against the West this year and they’re also a brutal 4-13 against top-10 teams and 12-19 against top-16 teams.
DETROIT +160 over Washington
OT included. Boy oh boy, this one isn’t easy to pull the trigger on but if we’re fading teams coming off their bye week, we cannot pick and choose. When one is playing a certain angle, you either play them all or you play none of them and we choose the former. We’re not going to go into an extensive analysis in this contest because it would only be sugarcoating a play that is only warranted under these circumstances. Washington is a monster while the Red Wings are a mouse. It would be nice if we could say that the Red Wings have an edge somewhere but they do not. They are inferior in every aspect of the game which includes mental preparation, desire, talent, coaching, defense and goaltending. The only way that Detroit will win here is if they use their speed and if the Washington Capitals are rusty or a bit flat. Oh wait……..Nothing more needs to be said. Note the 2:00 PM EST start time.
NOTE: Montreal is coming off their bye too but there might be a stronger angle working for them. Teams’ playing their first game for their new coach have won at an extremely high percentage over the years so we’re not going to get in front of that here. Furthermore, the Jets are one of two teams that did not win their game when they faced a team coming off their bye. In that situation, the Jets lost to Arizona. Winnipeg is a mentally weak team that is about to play a rejuvenated Montreal team in Montreal and so we are going to lay off this one.
Edmonton +134 over CHICAGO
OT included. Edmonton is warm with back-to-back wins over Philadelphia and Arizona but what sticks out more is that they scored 11 times in those two games. The Oil have also won three of its last four games and even though they lost 5-1 to Chicago a week ago, it’s worth noting that they were coming off their five-day scheduled sabbatical in that spot. Earlier in the year, Edmonton defeated Chicago, 5-0.
In continuing with our fade against teams’ that are coming off their bye week, the Blackhawks are up next and they’ll join four other teams today coming off their byes. Chicago’s bye came at the worst possible time for them, as they had just reeled off five in a row in dominating fashion while scoring four goals or more in each game, which was capped by a 5-1 victory over these same Oilers exactly one week ago. On three or more days of rest this seasoon, Chicago is 2-3 but both victories were in OT so they could easily be 0-5 in those games. In the three games that the Blackhawks lost over that span, they scored just one goal each game. This is also Chicago’s first home game since January 26th so not only are they coming off a vacation, they’re coming off a seven-game road trip too, thus Chicago has to overcome two strong angles and that might be a bit too much.
MINNESOTA -1½ +192 over Nashville
Spotting -150 or thereabouts is not in our mantra so we’ll spot the extra half puck and turn a -150 favorite into a +192 favorite. Well, not exactly because a two-goal margin or more is required but it’s worth it because the Predators are also coming off their bye. After the Avalanche defeated the Hurricanes last night in Carolina, teams’ coming off their bye are now 2-10. Among those losses were the Islanders losing at home to Colorado, Calgary and Los Angeles losing to Arizona and of course last night’s aforementioned loss by the ‘Canes to the Avs. Now it’s the Predators turn.
Prior to its break, Nashville had not won consecutive games since mid-January, which is a span of nine games. The Predators have dropped two of their last three with only win over that span occurring against Dallas but they allowed 14 goals against over that three-game span. Playing on three day’s rest or more this season, Nashville is 1-5 with only victory occurring in OT. We also pointed out yesterday that these third tier goaltenders have had nothing but mostly misery off their teams' break and Pekka Rinne is a third-tier goaltender. As for the Wild, well, nobody needs to be told what they have accomplished this year and they’re reign of terror isn’t likely going to be halted against a team in a proverbial coma.
NOTE: Montreal is coming off their bye too but there might be a stronger angle working for them. Teams’ playing their first game for their new coach have won at an extremely high percentage over the years so we’re not going to get in front of that. Furthermore, the Jets are one of two teams that did not win their game when they faced a team coming off their bye. In that situation, the Jets lost to Arizona. Winnipeg is a mentally weak team that is about to play a rejuvenated Montreal team in Montreal and so we are going to lay off this one.
ASA
BAYLOR (-2) over Kansas
One of the big games on the docket today is Kansas at Baylor and we like the Bears at home to get this win. Baylor comes into this game off a SU loss at Texas Tech while Kansas is off a huge emotional comeback win over West Virginia so the scheduling clearly favors Baylor. The Bears lost by 5 at Kansas earlier this season but benefitted from ‘home cooking’ as they were +16 in free throw makes from the line. Baylor was plus in total rebounds, had more assists, less turnovers but again, couldn’t overcome the disparity from the charity stripe. Baylor is the #1 defensive efficiency team in the Big 12, #1 in eFG% defense, #1 in offensive and defensive rebounding in the conference. Granted Kansas is 6-1 SU on the road in the Big 12 this season but they’ve all been close games and Baylor has won 28 of their last 34 home games. In fact, Baylor is 13-1 SU at home this season with an average differential of 15PPG. Baylor finds a way to get this home win.