Brandon Lee
Virginia vs. NC State
Play: Virginia -7½
I'm expecting a pissed off Virginia team to take the floor against the Wolfpack and I don't think NC State is going to be able to do anything to keep this from being a blowout. The Cavaliers have lost 4 straight, but it's not like they are getting destroyed by bad teams. They lost on the road against in-state rival Va Tech, dropped back-to-back games against Duke and UNC, followed by a loss at home to a solid Miami team. Offense has been a problem for Virginia during the skid, as they have shot less than 40% in each of their last 3 games. NC State is just what the doctor ordered for the Cavaliers to get out of their funk. The Wolfpack have allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field in 6 of their last 8 games. Virginia is going to find their shot and with the intensity on defense to snap the losing streak, this should get ugly in a hurry.
John Martin
Bulls vs. Cavaliers
Play: Bulls +11
The Chicago Bulls have been able to step up in class very well this season. They are getting too many points tonight against the Cleveland Cavaliers because they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an overtime game against Phoenix last night. But all 2nd of back-to-backs aren't created equal, and the Bulls will have plenty left in the tank after having an entire week off for the All-Star Break. The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Chicago is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Cleveland.
Ray Monohan
Brooklyn at Golden State
Play: Golden State -22
Yes, this is a massive amount of points to lay, however, the Warriors should blow the doors off the Nets.
Brooklyn is on the 2nd leg of a back to back and thats never something you want to deal with when heading into Golden State.
The Warriors came from behind last time out against the Clippers and gets a Nets team that has lost 15 straight. The Warriors can run on this team and really cause havoc against a Nets team that concedes 117 points per road game.
Some trends to note. Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Nets are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Expect a run away here as the Warriors should absolutely dominate this one.
Black Widow
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma State -6½
Bets against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Texas Tech) in a game involving 2 good teams who outscore their opponents by 8 or more points per game, after allowing 75 points or more in 3 straight games are 51-16 ATS since 1997. This situation's record is 8-3 this season alone. Texas Tech is out of gas after losing 4 of its last 5 games by 2 points or less or in overtime. Oklahoma State is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Give me the Cowboys.
Brad Diamond
Georgia -10½
Still feel there is some value laying doubles against an LSU (9-18) unit that has fallen apart defensively the last five games allowing 90+ points per, and 50% FG proficiency. Technically, the Tigers are 1-9 ATS in this underdog price range, while going 0-4 ATS L4 vs. >.500 units. Georgia (16-12) comes in a super 9-3 ATS in the SEC, and 3-0-1 ATS in the series.
Tony Karpinski
Wolves vs. Rockets
Play: Rockets -11½
Houston defends the arc well beyond just being adequate, they can shut down the deep shooters of opponents. Teams are only hitting around 35% vs them. Ryan Anderson is still a quiet threat and will keep Minnesota out of there enough.
Minnesota has some good young players, but they can struggle when dealing with being forced to play "chase around" defense and on the road. Things will stay the same. Inconsistent ball placement when trying to get their guys freed up off low screens - James Harden has a unique blend of speed and attack ability - and cannot be defended well enough with anyone the TWolves have on their team.
Houston is coming off a blowout win on Thursday on the road and I beleive they win this one by 15 or more points on Saturday night.
Dave Price
Indiana State vs. Evansville
Play: Evansville -3½
The Key: Evansville is playing on Senior Day today and will be hungry for a victory because of it. They'll also be hungry to avenge an 84-85 loss at Indiana State in their first meeting this season. The Purple Aces are 12-4 at home this season, while the Sycamores are just 3-12 in all road games. The Purple Aces are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams who are called for 3-plus more fouls per game than their opponents. The Sycamores are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Teddy Davis
UCLA vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -1
This line is obviously saying that the Bruins are going to be getting revenge here tonight. I do lick this UCLA team, but what I don't like are backing teams on the road in big games with a bad defense. This Arizona team is a perfect 15-0 @ home this season and I look for that to continue. The Bruins have also on covered 3 ties in their 10 games.
Jack Jones
VCU vs. Rhode Island
Play: Rhode Island -2
It's now or never for the Rhode Island Rams. At 18-9 on the season, they need some signature wins if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. Saturday presents itself with one against VCU, which is an NCAA Tournament team that is in second place in the Atlantic 10, just a half-game behind Dayton for first.
The Rams will be 'all-in' for this game and you can expect their best effort of the season as a result. The Rams are 8-3 in their last 11 games overall and should have beaten Dayton at home, but blew a big lead late as Dayton hit back-to-back 3-pointers in the final seconds to beat them 75-74. If they can play with Dayton, they can certainly play with VCU.
VCU is 1-7 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season. Rhode Island is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win. Rhode Island is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
David Banks
BYU vs. Gonzaga
Pick:Gonzaga -21
The nation’s No. 1 team, Gonzaga, closes its regular season with a Saturday night matchup with West Coast Conference foe BYU (19-10, 10-6). The Bulldogs, 28-0 on the season, can finish a perfect season with wins over San Diego on Thursday night and the Cougars on Saturday. Gonzaga beat BYU 85-75 on Feb. 3. Leading scorer Nigel Williams-Goss hit 12-of-18 shots from the floor and scored 33 points to lead the Zags.
While Goss (16.3 ppg) and 7-foot-1 center Przemek Karnowski (12.8 ppg) lead Gonzaga on offense, head coach Mark Few’s team often gets overlooked on the defensive end. As talented as Gonzaga is on offense – they average 85.4 points a game, 11th best in the nation – they are just as good at defending opponents. Gonzaga is eighth in the nation in points allowed per game, giving up just 61.7. Should Gonzaga win its final two regular season games, it will surpass the 2004-05 Illinois team for the fifth-best start in history. The Illini started that season 29-0 before losing their regular season finale and advancing all the way to the national final (they lost to North Carolina).
BYU will not go down without a fight. Erick Mika is a 6-10 sophomore who leads the Cougars in both scoring (20.0 ppg) and rebounding (9.3 rpg). T.J. Haws (14.2), Nick Emery (13.0), and Elijah Bryant (10.0) all average in double figures for BYU, a team that averages over 81 points a game. BYU rebounds well – they are third in the nation – but aren’t as strong on the defensive end. At 19-10 with two losses to Saint Mary’s, another loss to Gonzaga all but ends any desperate hopes for an NCAA tourney invite.
Mike Rose
Duke vs. Miami Florida
Play: Miami Florida +3
Duke possesses some excellent guard play in Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard, but Davon Reed has quietly gone about his business and been one of the best distributors and scorers in the ACC at the position. He averages a team-high 15.4 points per game and also contributes in the rebounding and assist departments. He was the Canes biggest standout performer in the first meeting leading the team with 19 points, and will once again be called upon to lead his team to what would be a tourney clinching victory. The key to Duke’s comeback in the first go round was the surprising game Amile Jefferson had on the glass. He ripped down a team-high 12 rebounds to more or less save the Blue Devils from getting embarrassed in the battle of the boards. I’m willing to bet he doesn’t go off like that this time around! While Duke’s defense has no doubt gotten better, it’s far outshined by Miami’s and I expect the Canes to ride that advantage to the huge win and cover.
Executive Sports
Tennessee at South Carolina
Play: Tennessee +6.5
South Carolina is struggling right now, as they are 0-3 the past 3 and 1-4 the past 5. They are not shooting or rebounding very well, and on defense are giving up a high percentage from the field to opponents. This tailspin will continue today against the Vols who look to avenge their loss to the Gamecocks back on Jan. 11th. The Vols a much better rebounding team.
Winning Angle
Wichita State -13 over Missouri State
Wichita State has won 73 of the last 89 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 27 of the last 33 home games. Wichita State has won 51 of the last 57 games vs. conference opponents and they have won 22 of the last 24 games when playing in the month of February.
West Virginia -4.5 over TCU
West Virginia has won 53 of the last 65 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 36 of the last 55 games vs. conference opponents. West Virginia has won 26 of the last 37 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have won 35 of the last 51 games after having won four or five of the last six games.
VCU +2.5 over Rhode Island
VCU has won 22 of the last 31 road games and they have won 45 of the last 58 games vs. conference opponents. VCU has won 43 of the last 63 games when playing their 2nd game in a week and they have won 80 of the last 121 games after allowing 55 points or less in their last game.
Kentucky -4 over Florida
Kentucky has won 87 of the last 100 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 49 of the last 51 home games. Kentucky has won 50 of the last 57 games vs. conference opponents and they have won 55 of the last 65 games when playing their 2nd game in a week.
Creighton +10 over Villanova
Creighton has won 86 of the last 123 games after having lost two of the last three games and they have won 85 of the last 125 games coming off two home games. Creighton has won 97 of the last 149 games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent and they are averaging 84 points a game this season.
Gonzaga -20 over BYU
Gonzaga has won 83 of the last 90 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 42 of the last 47 home games. Gonzaga has won 55 of the last 59 games vs. conference opponents and they have won 20 of the last 23 games when playing in the month of February.
Wunderdog
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +9.5
The ACC is a conference loaded with giants, and North Carlina has emerged above the frey at 24-5 overall and working on a possible conference chmpionship, and #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Heels, however, may have one eye on #18 Virginia, which is on the road Monday night, less than 48 hours after this one. Such is life in the rugged ACC. Pittsburgh at 15-13 on the season is fighting for their post-season life. While the wins have been slow to come in conference play, they have played at a much higher level of late. The Panthers have won three of their last five, have covered five of their last six, and catch North Carolina in a tough scheduling spot.
Mike Anthony
Indiana vs. Miami
Play: Miami -4.5
Miami is a fast enough team to get points inside the paint, as well as with good looks on the perimeter, they have also shown great hustle - with their offensive rebounding game which has been 11th in the NBA. Goran Dragic can really knock them down, he's been hitting 43% from deep this season, he is a constant threat to put up fast pts. Indiana is just as good on offense, if not a little better. But Miami is better on defense. Bottom line, Miami team gets some very tough bodies down low, and Indiana can't bump enough in the paint. As the team currently sits - Jeff Teague is the #2 guy on the team to go to - but he should not be put into that kind of important role. They need to get Myles Turner more shots for this team, he is the genuine future, for them. Miami gets my nod here on Saturday night.