Chris Jordan
I'm rolling with second-ranked Villanova, as it will come in a bit pissed off after losing to No. 22 Butler on Wednesday. That rare loss delayed the Wildcats their chance to clinch a fourth consecutive Big East regular-season championship.
No worries, the defending national champs will clinch the title when it hosts No. 23 Creighton in the home finale this afternoon. The Wildcats will celebrate Senior Night with a huge win over an embattled program, as seniors Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds will be honored in a pregame ceremony.
Make note, that trio had never lost a home game on campus until Wednesday versus Butler. They'll be at their best to be sure their last game in the Pavilion is a winning one.
Creighton was already without Maurice Watson, but the recent news of sexual assault allegations has swirled more distractions around this team. That won't help since the Blue Jays have lost the last five games against Villanova. They're 0-12 all-time against teams ranked in the top three.
The inconsistency is real for Creighton, which has alternated wins and losses over its last six contests.
I'll side with Nova here.
3* VILLANOVA
Brad Wilton
It's been like taking candy from a baby when you back Wichita State of late this season, as the Wheat Shockers have won their last 11 games, and they have covered in 4 straight and 8 of those 11 wins overall.
One of the Shockers non-covers in that span was an 80-62 home win over Missouri State, as Wichita State failed to cover that one by a half-point!
Missouri State has won just once outright in their last 6 games, and they have covered only twice in that span. The Bearcats are also just 4-9 against the spread on their home court this year.
Series numbers show Wichita State with 10 wins in each of the past 10 meetings, and covers in 6 of the last 7 meetings, and 7 of the 10 meetings overall.
The class of the Valley once again is Wichita State, and I will lay the wood with the Wheat Shockers on Saturday afternoon.
4* WICHITA STATE
Eric Schroeder
My free pick for Saturday is on the Southern Illinois Salukis, in a pick'em game against the Loyola Chicago Ramblers.
It's Senior Night, and prior to the game the Salukis will honor Sean O'Brien, Mike Rodriguez and Leo Vincent, who will be playing the final home game of their career.
With the win, Southern Illinois will secure the No. 4 seed at next week's Missouri Valley Conference tournament and would turn around and play a rematch with No. 5 Loyola. A loss drops the Salukis to the No. 5 seed they'll play either Loyola or Northern Iowa.
This is a team that has been playing better defensively, and that also can make shots from long range. Personally I think this is the best shooting team at Southern Illinois in quite some time, and if there was ever one game it would show up to hit from all angles around the arc - it's this game.
Take Southern Illinois in this one.
5* SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Jack Brayman
I don't know what's going on out in Las Vegas, but this is the worst UNLV team in the history of the program, and with arch-rival Nevada in town, it'll be like throwing gasoline on a fire.
Fact is, the only way the Wolf Pack loses this game is if the team comes in asleep. And there is no way Nevada won't take this game seriously. Not when it is UNLV. And not when Nevada returns to the Thomas and Mack Center in two weeks for the Mountain West Conference Championships.
UNLV is a terrible team, it doesn't get any simpler than that. This is a team that lost to bad Air Force team by 23 points, and Nevada isn't a bad team.
Nevada rolls here.
2* NEVADA
Brad Wilton
Yes, Minnesota played at home last night against Dallas, and yes, Houston had the night off after a Thursday walk-in-the-park at New Orleans, 129-99, but my money is on the Timberwolves plus this big number to cover against the Rockets this Saturday night.
Houston is just 3-4 against the spread their last 7 on home hardwood, and they also sport a money-burning number versus the line when facing Minny.
The T-Wolves did snap an 8 game series slide with the straight up win the last time these teams met in January, but better still is Minnesota's 5-1 spread mark the past 6 times these Western Conference teams have jumped ball.
Minnesota has also covered 2 of their last 3 tries when listed as the underdog.
Have to grab the barrel-full of points the visiting Wolves are getting in Houston on Saturday night.
3* MINNESOTA
SPORTS WAGERS
UCONN +5½ over SMU
The Mustangs are one of the hottest teams in the country with 10 straight win to go along with a 21st place ranking in the polls. SMU is a lock for the Main Event but they have some unfinished business to attend to first. The Mustangs are currently one game ahead of Cincinnati in the win column for first place in the AAC and they haven’t lost since a 66-64 defeat at Cincinnati on Jan. 12. In the rematch game against the Bearcats 13 days ago, SMU won 60-51. However, the Mustangs trailed by nine points with 10 minutes remaining and Cinci went ice cold. It appeared as though the Bearcats were going to beat them again, this time by double-digits but for the final 10 minutes they simply couldn’t knock down a shot. That was SMU’s best win of the year because a close looks shows that it has played mostly cupcakes and that Cincinnati (twice) is the only ranked team they have played all year. With a 24-4 record and that aforementioned 10 game winning streak, SMU’s résumé looks pretty sweet and now the market will pay inflated points to back them here. This is also a game the Mustangs could easily overlook, as they beat UConn by 20 earlier in the year and they’ll close out their regular season with two home games against Tulsa and Memphis on Thursday and next Saturday respectively.
With just one week left in the regular season, this is the time of year that motivation or lack thereof comes into question. That said, UConn has plenty of motivation, as it is vying for a first-round bye in the AAC Tournament from March 9-12 in Hartford. That’s significant because with a 14-13 overall record and a 9-6 conference mark, the Huskies only ticket to the Big Dance will come via a Conference Tournament win and don’t think it can’t happen because it can. UConn is hot and they’re good too. The Huskies have won seven of their past nine games with four players averaging double-figures over that span. The Huskies also have a +9.6 scoring and +2.2 rebounding margin since Feb. 8. The Huskies played a much tougher out-of-conference schedule than SMU, which included games against Oregon, Syracuse and Ohio State. Kevin Ollie is one of the best prepped coaches in the country and this is the time of year that UConn often thrives. We’re calling the outright upset but the true value is in the inflated points we’re being
OKLAHOMA +109 over Kansas St
The Kansas State Wildcats life as a bubble team took a big hit with their 80-68 loss at home in its latest to Oklahoma State as a 3½-point favorite. While a loss to the Cowboys won't sink their season on its own, it's K-State's recent form that has it on the outside looking in. The Wildcats blew a 14-point lead to OSU and have now lost seven of their last nine games. That horrible run includes four straight losses at home. Wins over ranked West Virginia and Baylor still look good on paper, but with K-State unable to take care of business against the rest of the Big 12, all those signature wins accomplish is artificially increase the Wildcats' value. Kansas State has been favored seven times in 2017 and it has managed to cover just once in a three-point victory over two-win Texas as a 2-point favorite. The Wildcats lost five of those games outright and pushed in the other. K-State enters play today tied with both TCU and Texas Tech. As it turns out, K-State has those two squads on deck to finish the season. The more pressing issue, however, is that K-State is in extremely weak form and have the look of a team that has lost its confidence. That’s not the type of team we’re interested in spotting road points with.
These young Sooners might not be racking up wins but they’re racking up experience and they’re playing damn good ball heading into the Big 12 Tournament. Much was made when OU lost the services of one of their few seniors, Jordan Woodard three games ago, but their freshman and sophomores have responded averaging 65.6 points per game with the bench pitching in 30.3 PPG. The Sooners' team effort is encouraging and they are on the verge of being a force in the Big 12 as soon as next season. OU's young guns have played the toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom and much of that has to do with just how deep the Big 12 is this season. In their last two games, the last place Sooners have gone toe-to-toe with ranked Baylor and in-state rival Oklahoma State. While it didn't get the win, OU covered both games and played their hearts out in a couple of very tough road games. It might be easy to discount the Sooners based on their position as Big 12 basement dwellers, but doing so may hurt your bankroll. OU’s position at the bottom of the standings only increases the value on the Sooners the rest of the way. The Big 12 is going to send its fair share of teams to The Big Dance but the Sooners are going to have to win their way in through the conference tournament. Until then, OU has a great opportunity to play spoiler for the rest of their conference brethren on the bubble and K-State is likely going to be its next victim. Wrong side favored.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO -111 over Montreal
The Montreal Canadiens are 2-7-1 in their last 10 games. Their switch to Claude Julien behind the bench has not created the spark general manager Marc Bergevin was looking for, as this Habs’ team looks totally lost. Bergevin is now squarely on the hot seat in Montreal, as the local media searches for answers to what's ailing the Canadiens. The pressure to play well in Montreal is so intense that it comes as no surprise that the Habs are grabbing their sticks really tight at the moment. With just four goals since Julien's arrival, the Canadiens' players have got to be looking over their shoulders. This time of year can be stressful on a locker room and this is the second straight season Montreal has stumbled its way to the finish line. What makes this year different is that the Habs are still in the playoff hunt so Bergevin could be pressured into making a move. Montreal is now just two points up on Ottawa for first place in the Atlantic Division with the Panthers, Bruins and Maple Leafs all breathing down their necks. Something is not right in that locker room.
The Maples Leafs scoring extravaganza came to an end last time out against the Rangers but it's unlikely that Mike Babcock is going to get away from this team’s “run and gun” style. The Buds find themselves just four points back of division leading Montreal with a game in hand but there is a lot more than that on the line here. You see, Toronto has now dropped 13 straight games to Montreal, which is the longest winning streak one team has over another in the league. It is so hard to beat any team four or five straight, let alone 13. For years or even decades, Montreal has been the superior team in one of sports’ biggest and most hated rivalries. Montreal/Toronto is to hockey what Boston/New York is to baseball. Now, for the first time in decades, Toronto is the superior team and it is time to end that nonsense. This is playoff hockey and perhaps a game against the Maple Leafs will wake the Habs’ up but we wouldn't bet on it. The Habs are playing tentative hockey on their heels while the Maple Leafs continue to be aggressive and confident. That is going to be the difference here that ends the streak.
Anaheim +136 over LOS ANGELES
OT Included. Note the 4:00 PM EST start. The market keeps waiting for the Kings to wake up but that day has not come yet and may not come at all. We keep hearing about what a great puck possession team the Kings are and that’s true but so what. What good is it to have the puck when you’re passing it around on the outside and not creating chances? For the Kings to score, they have to create a lot, which is something they are not doing. We all remember the 2012 version of the Kings, when they were a dominating puck-possession team and came into the playoffs as an 8-seed. L.A then lost two games the entire playoffs in a dominating Cup run that also helped to give widespread credence to the “advanced stats” movement. This version of the Kings is nothing like that one. L.A. has two lousy players with more than 10 goals. They are a bottom offensive team that has trouble catching up if they fall behind by even one goal and has trouble holding leads too. L.A. has scored two goals or less seven times in its last nine games. That includes scoring twice in Colorado. The Kings goaltending is overvalued too because they don’t allow a lot of shots on net but if the Ducks can fire away 30 or so, there is a good chance of scoring three times or more. Hell, two goals are likely enough. In any event, L.A. is a huge risk when favored, especially against a quality opponent this time of year when every game means more.
Three wins by the Ducks in eight games have followed an All-Star break where they stumbled into it with a one-sided home loss. Anaheim’s recent form has their stock lower than it should be but there are things to note here. Ryan Getzlaf jawed back and forth with equally heated assistant coach Trent Yawney in a brief stoppage during a practice drill Saturday at Anaheim. That shows some feistiness and grit from the Captain, which is a good example to set to carry over into this game. The Ducks also added some new energy to the room with the pickup of Patrick Eaves from Dallas. This is a team that should not be slumping because of their abundance of talent. Every team will go through a funk during an 82-game schedule but when it comes at this time of year, it is more pronounced. That makes us instant buyers because the Ducks have three legit scoring lines while the Kings don’t even have three scorers. Huge overlay.
Stephen Nover
Indiana -3.5
Indiana has the stronger backcourt, is in revenge mode and in stop-the-pain mode. Another factor is I just don't trust Northwestern in a key game especially on the road.
The Wildcats upset Wisconsin, but still have dropped four of their last six games. They've covered only one of those last six games.
Brad Powers
Pittsburgh +9.5
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS their last 7 games (of course, the only time they didn't cover was when we were on them vs Virginia Tech). They are 10-5 ATS as a dog this season and competed well in the first meeting losing only 80-78 (+18.5). Huge sandwich spot for North Carolina off Virginia/Louisville with a road trip to Virginia on deck on Monday and they also host Duke next week. Meanwhile, it's Senior Day for Pitt and their two best players are Seniors in Michael Young and Jamel Artis.
Clemson +2.5
Ultimate revenge game for Clemson as they lost 109-61 (+6.5) to Florida St back on February 8. In that game FSU shot 66% from the field (season-high) and 57% from 3-point range. FSU is off a 104-72 win over Boston College giving us some value and they do have big games vs Duke and Miami, Fl on deck. The Noles are just 1-5 SU/ATS their last 6 road games.
Harry Bondi
DALLAS -1 over New Orleans
Difficult scheduling spot for the Pelicans, who lost last night against Houston and travel to Oklahoma City tomorrow. The Mavs have struggled this year, but have played well on their home floor, going 17-11 ATS. Dallas has also won 45 of the last 68 meetings between these two franchises, including a 21-11 ATS mark at home in this series. Let’s follow those trends at a near pick’em price and call for the Mavs to get the easy win at home.
Braxton Myles
Duke vs. Miami
Play: Duke -2½
Miami is coming into this game 0-7 ATS when coming off a road game this season and 1-7 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season. Miami started the season off great but fell off a little once conference play started, but Miami a terrible 4-10 ATS at home this season so Duke should have the advantage in this game. With Duke averaging 10 more PPG on the season than Miami and covered a 10 point spread against Miami in their first meeting this season.
Anthony Michael
Arizona -1.5
Have to love Arizona laying this low of a number at home since they are a perfect 15-0 at home this season and they know they can beat UCLA since they already beat them on the road earlier this season. The Bruins are only 4-12 ATS in their last 16 lines games and the Wildcats have won 4 of the last 5 in this series SU. Look for a win/cover here from Arizona.