Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, February 4th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

INDIANA STATE AT NORTHERN IOWA
PLAY: NORTHERN IOWA -8.5

The single best decision I’ve made to date this college basketball season involved Northern Iowa. The Panthers were struggling badly at 5-11 overall and 0-5 in the MVC. But I was convinced it was just a matter of time before Ben Jacobson put the youthful pieces together. A home game with a Drake team off a big win looked like a potential bounce spot, and I decided to give UNI a roll.

Long story short, the Panthers played their best game of the season and got a very easy win. I made the decision to start riding Northern Iowa as my feeling was there would be good value on them for at least a small window moving forward.

The Panthers have now covered six straight. There was one game where playing them early saved me a loss, but the bottom line is the team has warmed up nicely. The Panthers did see their winning streak come to an end earlier this week as they were beaten at Illinois State. But even in that loss UNI did some good things, most notably a nice job of controlling the tempo and forcing the Redbirds to play at their pace.

I am staying on UNI as home chalk here. Indiana State is finally off a win, but the Sycamores are a mess and I’m not convinced an overtime win over reeling Evansville means much. The value is no longer a factor as the betting line has caught up to their recent success. But I’m playing Northern Iowa minus the points once again.

John Martin

Pistons vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers -4

The Indiana Pacers simply have the Detroit Pistons' number. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, winning by an average of 10.0 PPG. They have also won 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series overall. They have played twice this season with the Pacers winning 105-90 and 121-116. What was most impressive about those two wins was that they both came on the road. The Pacers are 18-6 at home this season, while the Pistons are just 9-17 SU & 10-16 ATS on the road. The Pistons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win. The Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.

Scott Spreitzer

Xavier vs. Creighton
Play: Creighton -3½

It took a few games for the Jays to find their rhythm after losing Mo Watson, Jr., to injury. But freshman Davion Mintz is now battle tested and the highly touted underclassmen played well in a win at Butler last time out. Tyler Clement also showed savvy at the point, while Justin Patton looked as comfortable as he's been since the Watson injury. Marcus Foster has reeled-in his game, averaging 18 ppg and staying under control. Meanwhile, Xavier will is now the team learning to play without a star player. Edmond Sumner has been lost for the season after averaging 15 ppg and delivering 105 assists. Like Watson was to CU, Sumner was the straw that stirred the drink for the Musketeers. Xavier is on a 1-6 ATS slide and they have failed to cover four straight on the road. Meanwhile, Creighton is on a 6-0 ATS run in the series and 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games, overall.

Stephen Nover

Hornets vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -7½

The Hornets are a below .500 team that plays in the Eastern Conference - making their 23-27 record look even worse - has trouble on the road and lacks consistent scoring behind Kemba Walker. And that's when the Hornets are healthy. The Hornets are far from healthy here and they are playing in their third straight road game against a well-rested Jazz team in action for just the second time in seven days. Charlotte has to take on the league's No. 1 defensive team - both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage - with Walker questionable to play because of illness, main backup guard Ramon Sessions doubtful with a sore knee and center Cody Zeller out due to a quad injury. Zeller doesn't draw much accolades, but the Hornets are 1-11 without him this season. Charlotte is thin at center after dealing big men Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert to Milwaukee. The Hornets are going to start Frank Kaminsky at center against Rudy Gobert in a mismatch of monster proportions. Gobert may be the most underrated big man in basketball. He's posted 33 double-doubles this season. Gobert leads the league in blocks, is No. 2 in field goal percentage behind DeAndre Jordan - who's shooting range is two feet - and fifth in rebounding. Gobert will be aided on the boards by Derrick Favors, expected to play after missing the past two games. Walker played in Charlotte's last game, a 126-111 loss to Golden State this past Wednesday. Walker, though, clearly wasn't 100 percent. He may have had his worst game of the season connecting for just one field goal and scoring seven points, 15 below his season average. The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS during their last 16 road matchups and 7-18-2 ATS when going against foes with a winning home mark. There is nothing here to suggest the Hornets can stay within single-digits of Utah.

Jack Jones

Washington State +7½

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the Pac-12 this season. That is clearly evidenced by the fact that they have gone 7-3 ATS in Pac-12 play this year. They are consistently overlooked by the oddsmakers and betting public, and they have put together a respectable 4-6 SU record in league play as well.

USC comes in overvalued off three straight victories, including a recent home upset of UCLA as 7-point dogs. The Trojans then followed that up with an 82-74 win at Washington as 1.5-point favorites, covering the spread in both contests. But now they're being asked to lay 7.5 points on the road here to the Cougars.

The Trojans have played five true road games in Pac-12 play this season, and they have only won one of those games by at least 8 points, which was the victory over Washington. They failed to cover as 12-point favorites in a 7-point win at Oregon State, they were blown out by both Oregon (by 21) and Utah (by 22), and were fortunate to beat Colorado (by 3).

USC is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 road games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. The Trojans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win. USC is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite, and 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of 7.0 to 12.5 points. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. The Trojans are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Matt Josephs

Valparaiso vs. Green Bay
Play: Green Bay +4½

Valpo comes to town and it's always interesting when these two play. The Phoenix were smoked by the Crusaders at their place back on January 16th losing 80-56 in a contest where they shot just 31% from the field. The scene shifts to Green Bay where they've lost just two games this season. They have struggled on the defensive side of the ball, but offensively have some good balance. Charles Cooper leads a group of seven players who put up seven points or more per game. Valpo will have the best player on the court in Alec Peters who averages a double double. Green Bay has won eight of their last 11 at home int his series. Last year they lost by two at home as a 5.5 point underdog. I think the Phoenix are a live dog.

Jim Feist

Orlando vs. Atlanta
Play: Under 208

Orlando heads out on the road with a weak offense, #27 in points scored, #25 in field goal shooting. The Under is 28-7 in the Magic's last 35 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Atlanta is home, top 8 in the league in field goal shooting defense. The Under is 5-1 when the Hawks face a team with a winning percentage below .400. the Under is 37-15 in the last 52 meetings, including 22-6 under the total at Atlanta.

Power Sports

Texas State vs. Texas-Arlington
Pick: Texas-Arlington

Off an outright loss at Coastal Carolina, TX-Arlington returns home Saturday, where they have yet to drop a game all season. They're favored by a decent amount, but it's a revenge spot against a Texas State team that simply isn't very good. Sure, the underdog Bobcats were able to get the Mavericks in their gym back on January 7th. But that 81-73 win (as 8.5-pt dogs) saw them shoot 55% from the floor, a performance highly unlikely to be duplicated this afternoon. Lay the points.

TX-Arlington averages 88.6 points per game at home, making it an average margin of victory of 22 PPG here. They fell just two points short Monday at Coastal Carolina. Full disclosure, I faded the Mavs in that spot. But, again, it was on the road. They had previously won three straight games by 16 or more points. Remember what I said earlier about the unlikelihood of Texas State repeating their hot shooting of the first matchup? Well, at home, TX-Arlington is permitting only a 38.3 FG%.

This will be Texas State's third straight road game. Surprisingly, they've won the first two. They won by two at Coastal Carolina last Saturday and then again at Appalachian State on Monday (as short favorites). But even w/ four wins in their last five games, including three straight, I don't trust this team. This line speaks volumes given that both teams have 6-3 SU records in Sun Belt play. TX-Arlington has yet to win a SBC home game by fewer than 15 points.

Ben Burns

Philadelphia at Miami
Play: Miami -8

A perfect 9-0 SU/ATS their last nine, the Heat are arguably the hottest team in the league right now. That streak will likely come to an end soon, as they'll embark on a road trip after this game. However, they should be able to extend it for at least one more day.

I successfully played against the 76ers in each of their last two games, as they lost by 18 and 16 points. At the time, I noted that their "make-up game" against Sacramento last Monday had provided them with an especially difficult schedule. While they've had a day off, they're still playing their eighth game in the past 12 days here.

The well-rested Heat should have some added incentive to keep their streak going as the 76ers defeated them earlier in the season. They're 13-6 ATS against teams with a losing record on the season and have won each of their last four games by a minimum of eight points. Consider Miami.

Chase Diamond

Virginia vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse +6

This game we have 17-4 Virginia and the 14-9 Syracuse. Virginia comes in here off a win over their instate rival Vtech and Syracuse is making a push for the big dance and this would be a huge game on their resume. The Orange are 13-2 at home and have won 3 straight games and Virginia has Louisville the #6 team in the nation in deck. Public is 50/50 on this game but we are seeing the line move one way showing us the sharps are on Syracuse early today.

Chip Chirimbes

Connecticut vs. Cincinnati
Play: Connecticut +13

The Huskies are trying to salvage their season and have won three in-a-row but now fact Big East powerhouse No.14 Cincinnati who has won 13 straight. Connecticut lost three players for the year before the season started and have had three others sidelined as well. Still, they have been underachieving all season and are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall. One thing though, they seem to be ready when they play the Bearcats as they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings and will get the money today.

Ray Monohan

Grizzlies vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves +1½

The Timberwolves welcome in the Grizzlies on Saturday and this is a nice spot for the home team. Memphis embarked on a 6 game road trip and with this being the finale, they simply want to get home.

It's been a long, tough stretch and they received a big blow yesterday as they saw their 3 game winning streak come to a halt. The Timberwolves are a young, exciting team that matches up well.

They play much faster than Memphis and will look to push the tempo and get the Grizzlies to play their style.

Some trends to note. Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.

Look for Minnesota to really push the issue here and get the Grizzlies out of their comfort zone on Saturday.

Matt Fargo

Auburn vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -6½

It has been an up and down season for Auburn which opened the season 10-2 in non-conference action but has been unable to find any consistency in the SEC. The Tigers fell to 3-6 in the conference with a 10-point home loss to Tennessee on Tuesday which snapped a two-game home winning streak. They have gone just 1-3 on the road in the SEC with the lone victory coming against 0-9 Missouri and the three losses coming by 29, 20 and 19 points. Auburn hits the road again and is in a very bad spot. Alabama is coming off a horrible loss at Arkansas on Wednesday by 19 points and while the Razorbacks are a solid team, a blowout loss was unexpected. Alabama has lost consecutive games only twice this season as it is 6-1 following a defeat, the lone setback coming at Oregon back in December. While this rivalry is more about football than basketball, the Crimson Tide will no doubt be ready for this one and adding to that is the fact they lost at Auburn by 20 points two weeks ago so they will be out for some serious payback. Alabama has won seven straight home meetings against the Tigers. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 while the Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record.

Jimmy Boyd

Connecticut vs. Cincinnati
Play: Connecticut +12½

I really like the value here with the Huskies as a double-digit underdog against the Bearcats. These two schools have quite a history on the hardwood and most of the recent meetings have come right down to the wire. In fact, 11 of the last 12 games in this series have been decided by 7 points or less.

The key here is that we are getting an inflated line with Cincinnati, who comes in having won 13 straight, which includes a perfect 9-0 start to AAC play. Connecticut doesn't have one of it's better teams this year, as they are just 10-11 overall, but they have been playing much better of late. They come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 7 overall. Bearcats are just 13-27 ATS in their last 40 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points, 2-10 ATS over their last 3 seasons when they come into a game having covered 3 of their last 4 and 4-15 ATS in their last 19 after allowing 65 or less points in back-to-back games.