Teddy Davis
Purdue vs. Maryland
Play: Purdue -2½
I'm gonna take Purdue here as this line will probably come as a shock to most people with Maryland being the underdog. I have underrated Maryland this year, but you also have to take into count their easy schedule. In fact, they haven't played anyone in the conference above .500. Purdue is an extremely tough match up for them with their big men being able to control the paint making it tough for the Maryland guards to live in the lane. I really believe Maryland will have to hit at least 12 3 pointers to have a shot here.
Zack Cimini
Purdue vs. Maryland
Pick: Purdue -3
Saturday will be an ultimate test for a Maryland team that has received outstanding play from their freshman along with Melo Trimble. Still, they haven't received the love of a 20-2 team in the polls because of their style of play. Purdue's balance on both ends of the floor will be enough to offset the hot Terrapins on their home floor.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND ST +4 over Oakland
The Golden Grizzlies home loss to this very Cleveland State team has all been forgotten. As a 14-point underdog, the Vikings would travel to Oakland and knock off the Golden Grizzlies by 11 points when they defeated Oakland 76-65 on January 16th. While we rarely put emphasis on one result, we have a hard time overlooking Oakland’s propensity to lose games against marginalized competition. Look no further than the Grizzlies five-point home defeat against Detroit Mercy as a 18½-point favorite, which preceded the Cleveland State loss and two more losses outright as a favorite against Wright State and Green Bay. The market assessment of this Golden Grizzlies team as a whole has been off all year. We now get to fade the Grizzlies at the right time. In its last outing, Oakland soundly defeated Youngstown State on the road, 90-76 as a seven-point favorite, which will prompt most of this market to trust them again but the oddsmakers do not trust them and that means more to us.
When we say that the market assessment has been off on Oakland, that would be putting it mildly. Previous to the Youngstown State win and as a 12½-point choice, Oakland would require overtime to shake off UW-Milwaukee. Previous to that, the Grizzlies would lose by eight as an eight-point favorite against Green Bay and most notably they would fall by 21 against Wright State on the road as a 3½-point favorite. A 14-point win over Youngstown St and suddenly the Grizzlies get their credibility back? We don’t think so.
Now, Cleveland State get the Grizz again on their own court. While Cleveland State would need nothing less than a tournament victory to earn a trip to the Men’s Basketball Tournament, the amount of parody in this league in particular precipitates a notion that anything is truly possible here. One thing remains certain, which is Oakland has a documented account of poor performances. If it were one or two games we could overlook it but it’s not and now we’ll look to reap the benefits of that ill-perceived market assessment.
Wagner +108 over F. DICKINSON
Northeast Conference contests very rarely acquire any form of attention and even if they did they would be likened to a preliminary bout, hours before the main event or a mid-card contest. The 11:00 AM start for this fixture implies that almost no one will brandish any interest in this 2016 NEC Championship rematch, especially in the West where coffee machines haven’t even gone off yet. Given the fact that the two participants in this affair are a combined 0-1 ATS on the year despite playing 43 games already, one can assume that neither combatant will be seeing hefty amounts of cash thrown down on them this morning, be it that they have been non-existent on the scope of many books all season long. The good news is that a successful wager, whether it be an ACC primetime contest or a NEC match just after breakfast, pays the same.
For those are who unfamiliar with the Wagner/Fairleigh Dickinson feud, let us take you back to March 8th, 2016. We will certainly get our cigarette ready and throw on a nice suit, playing the role of Rod Serling as we will narrate a brief introduction before taking you into The Twilight Zone where the Knights would secure their first ever NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bid with an eight-point win as a nine-point pooch against Wagner. The Seahawks (Wagner) were expecting to leave Staten Island as a #16 seed in the Big Dance and instead their glass slipper shattered even when they outmuscled FDU on the boards 42-29. Recently, on January 5, these teams would meet again and despite securing 20 more rebounds than Fairleigh Dickinson, while also hitting more field goals than them, the Seahawks would lose by a point.
We can play the revenge angle here but Wagner likely has a rage that really would be appropriate to be chronicled on The Twilight Zone. The Seahawks feel the Monsters are due on Maple Street just like they are due for a win against Fairleigh Dickinson. FDU has been the proverbial monkey on Wagner’s back and with both teams in the top five of the NEC standings, this games bares significance, as the winner remains within striking distance of the current table-topper, Mount St. Mary’s. Wagner has dominated the last two times these two have met and have nothing to show for it. In basketball, when a team gets dominated, they rarely win but somehow Farleigh has overcome that not once, but twice. Vindication comes in the form of a victory and we’re strongly suggesting the better team gets it here. The Seahawks outright get this call.
UCSB +6 over UC Davis
We are going to continue our assault against UC Davis for a number of reasons. First, spotting road points in the Big West is bad strategy that has proven to be a risky venture. This one is no different. Davis has had only two days to sort themselves out after losing to Cal Poly so we have yet to see what Davis team takes the floor in Santa Barbara and what effect the loss had on their psyche. Prior to the two combatants meeting a month ago on Davis’ floor, the Gauchos owned a four-game winning streak against the Aggies and also winning six of their previous seven overall. The Aggies snapped this era of dominance with authority when they rolled the Gauchos 73-47 as an 8½-point home favorite on January 4th. That result certainly has influence on how this market will proceed but we see it as fool’s gold. When you toss in that the Gauchos have lost their previous five overall, UCSB seems like prime pickins for Davis. However, Davis likely entered that previous meeting in a different state of mind. This was a basketball on the come-up looking to dispatch a conference foe that seemingly had their number. Now, Davis is the team everyone is looking to beat and since ascending to this role, the Aggies have appeared unprepared to be “Kings of the Hill”.
For those citing UCSB’s skid as rationale to stay clear of the Gauchos, we remind you that Cal Poly was on a hideous skid before they knocked off UC Irvine. The Gauchos being on a skid may actually be an understatement, as they have lost five straight, eight of nine and have just three lousy wins all year. UCSB’s last four losses have been by 10, 21, 22 and 26 points respectively. However, the Gauchos played a difficult non-conference schedule that was ranked 33rd toughest in the country and that included games against USC, UCLA, SMU, Nevada and Omaha among others. UC Davis’ out of conference SOS ranked 197th. That said, we’re not going to sugarcoat this is any way. The Gauchos are a weak team that has one lousy conference win in one of the weakest conferences in the country. However, we also are able to recognize when a teams’ stock has hit rock bottom and when that occurs, inflated points follow. That is 100% the case here so when inflated points are offered, it is our duty to grab them and let the chips fall where they may.
Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON -7.5 over New Orleans
The Wizards failed to cover on Thursday night at home against the Lakers, snapping a 10-game ATS run. But this is still a team that’s absolutely red-hot, going 10-1 both SU and ATS in its last 11 games, including a 107-94 rout at New Orleans last week. In fact, Washington has won and covered four of the last five meetings in this series and tonight they catch a tired Pelicans team that’s playing its third road game in five days. Also, New Orleans allows 106.5 points per game and Washington has covered 64% of its games this season against teams that give up more than 100 a game, including a 9-1 ATS run in its last 10 games in that situation. Lay the home favorite.
Mike Rose
Illinois State at Wichita State
Play: Wichita State -10.5
Shockers’ big man Markis McDuffie is currently the team’s leading scorer and rebounder in averaging 12.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. Due to foul trouble, he was more or less taken out of the first meeting, and his overall body of work suffered greatly because of it. He ended up scoring just 11 points and reeled in just 4 rebounds over the course of his 23 minutes of action. With this game now at home and the Redbirds down a big man, look for McDuffie to have a much bigger impact on this game.
With the Redbirds winning each of their first 11 conference games and entering this tilt atop the conference standings, most will take double and triple takes when they see ISU installed double-digit underdogs. Don’t fall for the trap! Illinois State is nowhere near as good as its record indicates, and the MVC as a whole is way down this season.
The current conference leaders have pulled off some great escapes on the true road, while Wichita State has buried all that’s gotten in their way away from their home court save for the Redbirds. Though the Shockers have had issues in this rivalry of late in going 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS the L/4 meetings, they’ve won each of the L/9 times they hosted the Redbirds and will be out to even this series up. I expect them to do just that in front of their rabid fan base, and do so emphatically!
Executive Sports
VA Commonwealth at St. Bonaventure
Play: VA Commonwealth -1.5
VCU is coming off 3 consecutive home wins and now must head back out on the road. Look for them to take this momentum on their 2 game road trip to avenge their last road trip. They are 11-2 in their past 13 games, and those 2 losses were in their last road trip where they went 0-2. They are 4-2 SU this year in their true road games. In their last game they shot 52% from the field, and shot over 50% in 2 of their past 3 games. They have 17 wins on the season, and they shot over 50% from the field in 10 of those games.
Mike Rose
Xavier at Creighton
Play: Xavier +4
When these teams crossed paths in the Cintas Center back in mid-January, it was expected to be a high scoring shootout with the total closing at 156.5. The injury to Watson Jr. ended up playing a huge role in Creighton only scoring 72 points, but you have to give it up to the Bluejays for seeing the game all the way through. Still, there were some glaring issues in the win. Xavier only shot 40 percent from the field yet only lost the game by five points. It also destroyed Creighton on the glass 43-32 with Musketeers big man RaShid Gaston reeling in a total of 17 rebound; nine of them offensive.
If not for blowing an eight point halftime lead at Cincinnati, Xavier would invade Omaha winners of four straight. This is a team that doesn’t have a single impressive road win to hang its hat on with it already falling at Baylor, Colorado, Villanova, Butler, and Cincinnati. Maybe the win at Georgetown can be considered decent now with the Hoyas recent hot streak, but that’s debatable.
The betting public loves to react to everything they just saw. With Creighton its best at home and coming off a huge win at Butler, many will be lining up to back the Bluejays on a betting line that looks too good to be true. Seriously, it looks way too damn easy to lay 'em with the BJs in this spot. Especially with Xavier still adjusting to life without its point guard. While the Musketeers have been money burners in the underdog role to date (0-4 ATS), they don’t have many more chances to make a good impression on the selection committee. I expect them to go all out here in an effort to even the season rivalry. They're either winning this game outright or losing by a possession.
Anthony Michael
Cleveland -6.5
I know the Cavs have been struggling lately but they have put it together to win 3 of their last 4 SU and they get Love back on the court for this one. He will be very motivated to show up Anthony to show the Cavs not to trade him for Carmello. LeBron loves playing in New York and will be very interested in making a statement on national TV that the Cavs are back and ready to defend their title.
Jimmy Moore
Coyotes / Sharks Under 5
LOVE this under here since San Jose is 5-11 to the under in home games with a total of 5 and they are 2-11 to the under after playing a division game. Arizona is 4-13 to the under in divisional games and they are 12-20 to the under when revenging a loss. The clincher here is that 9 of the last 12 meetings between these teams have gone under.
Strike Point Sports :
Purdue (-2.5) over Maryland
Maryland has gotten off to a tremendous start at 19-2, far greater than perhaps most had foretasted for the Terps. But I don't like this match-up for them, even at home in College Park. Maryland may have point guard Melo Trimble, but there won't be an answer for the Boilermakers' Caleb Swanigan and his dominant interior play. He is averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds per game, and this talented sophomore is arguably the most dominant big man in the country. I really do like the consistency Maryland has shown so far through out the year, but I don't think they match-up well with Purdue here. This is a great opportunity for a league road win.
Brad Powers
Texas +6.5
The Longhorns are 8-2 ATS as an underdog this year and are on a 6-0 ATS run on the road. They have one of the best defenses in the country (No. 17 in efficiency) and are playing with revenge from a 64-61 loss (-1.5) at home to TCU 3 weeks ago. Since that loss, the Horns are on a 5-1 ATS run. Meanwhile TCU is off an upset win over Kansas St and we'll sell them after that big performance because prior to that game, they were on a 0-4 SU/ATS run.
Brad Wilton
Saturday comp play is Maryland at home over Purdue.
The Boilermakers will be a little overconfident coming in after their easy midweek win against Northwestern, but that win came in West Lafayette. Purdue still hasn't shown they can consistently win away from home, as their last road game was an upset loss at Nebraska, and the Boilermakers have dropped 2 of their last 3 on the Big Ten road.
Maryland is playing the best basketball in all of Big Ten, as Mark Turgeon's team sports a 7 game straight up and against the spread winning streak, all of the wins in conference play. More impressive to me is the fact the Terps have recorded 5 of those wins on the conference road.
Maryland lost to Purdue the last time these teams met last February, but the Terrapins had won and covered the last pair of meetings since they joined the Big Ten. Included is a 72-61 win last February at College Park.
Boilers disappoint on the road one more time.
Back Maryland to stay hot.
5* MARYLAND
Brad Wilton
He's back!!!!
Coach K is expected to make his return to the court and coach his surging Blue Devils in time for this Saturday home game against the Panthers, and I expect Pitt to leave Cameron Indoor with a lopsided "L" on their ledger.
True, the Panthers did hang close against North Carolina earlier this week in an underdog cover, but they wound up on the wrong side of the ledger for the 7th straight time. It is going to take some time for Kevin Stallings to get things turned around in the Steel City, and keep in mind that the Panthers cover at UNC was only the second during their seven game slide.
Duke showed me something in their win earlier in the week at Notre Dame, as the Blue Devils head back home off back-to-back conference road wins at Wake Forest and Notre Dame.
The Blue Devils did lose the last series meeting against the Panthers, 76-62 in Pittsburgh last February. I am sure the Duke players well remember that double-digit setback and will be itching for some payback in this meeting.
Go with Duke minus the big number over Pittsburgh.
4* DUKE
Jack Brayman
He's baaaackkk!
Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski will be back on the bench for the Blue Devils, against Pittsburgh. And with the Hall of Fame skipper back on the sidelines, I expect to see the No. 21 Blue Devils at their best after a pair of road victories.
They're back to being healthy, and should be ready to distance themselves from a 4-3 stretch they endured while Krzyzewski was recovering from back surgery.
There were some personnel issues, and they were addressed. But now everything will be back to normal, and Duke may look its absolute best since its 49-point rout of UNLV in Las Vegas.
This is certainly a great game to welcome Coach K back, as the Devils are hosting a last-place Pittsburgh team that might still be hungover after a two-point loss at first-place North Carolina. That what was the first of three straight road games for the Panthers, who won't be able to contain Duke's inside presence, and stellar perimeter shooting.
Lay the home chalk.
3* DUKE
Chris Jordan
After hitting the Iona Gaels on Friday with my free play, I'm ready to improve on this 43-29-1 run with free picks, as I deliver a free winner in College Hoops tonight.
One of my free winners for Saturday is on No. 2 Baylor, which will be looking to bounce back against Kansas State, a team that not too long ago served up a stunning 79-75 victory over West Virginia.
But since then the Wildcats have lost to Iowa State, been trounced by Tennessee, and then lost to visiting TCU just this week. Now they catch an angry Baylor team that lost to No. 3 Kansas, 73-68, on Wednesday.
The Bears are going to be hungry for this win, and need it if they want to stay on track with Kansas.
Baylor is still aiming to earn a No. 1 seed in the dance next month, and running the table the rest of the way, and then in the Big 12 Tournament could get it there.
The Bears already beat Kansas State in Manhattan earlier this season, 77-68, and now they get a shot for a bigger win at home, on a Saturday, in front of a frenzied crowd in Waco.
Lay the home chalk.
5* BAYLOR