TIMOTHY BLACK
Iowa State vs. Kansas
Play: Iowa State +11
The Jayhawks are just 2-7 ATS as a home favorite this season while the Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. The Cyclones are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and have covered the number in 5 of their last 7 overall meetings with Kansas.
DAVE PRICE
George Washington vs. Richmond
Play: Richmond -5½
The Key: Richmond already beat George Washington 77-70 on the road as 5.5-point favorites. They led by 11 at halftime and never looked back. The Spiders are 4-1 at home this season in Atlantic 10 play, beating Fordham by 8, St. Bonaventure by 17, Rhode Island by 11 and Duquesne by 11. George Washington is 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in all road games this year. The Colonials are 1-4 in road games in Atlantic 10 play. They lost at St. Joe's by 5, VCU by 30, La Salle by 10 and Rhode Island by 12. The Colonials are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic 10. The Spiders are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Atlantic 10.
Stallone Sports
Creighton -3.5
After a disastrous injury to Mo Watson, followed by 2 pretty ugly losses, it looks as if Creighton has made the necessary adjustments to get back into the win column. They are coming off 2 straight wins, a blowout hosting Depaul and a 9 point road victory at Butler. In the butler game specifically they did a great job at spreading the floor, running more of a motion offence, sharing the ball and spacing the floor. I really like the adjustments they have made as a team and I expect them to have success at home today against a team in Xavier who is in a less than ideal position. Xavier managed to squeak by Seton Hall in their first game without PG Edmon Sumner. However, they didn’t look very impressive doing so, only managing a 2 point squeaker hosting the Pirates on Wednesday. Now they have to travel on the road to a very hostile environment with a freshman point guard in Quentin Goodin. To make matters worse, their all everything stud Trevor Bluiett rolled his ankle on Wednesday, has not practiced much this week and is “Questionable” for this game. It is very likely that he will play but at what % is his health? Xavier has struggles on the road all year, they are 3-7 ATS on the highway this season. I don’t think the markets are fully respecting the severity of Sumners absence. Xavier will struggle this hostile road setting against a team who has recently gotten over the hump regarding the loss of their own point guard. Creighton rolls here by double digits.
Texas +6.5
I’ve cashed 2 tickets in a row with the Longhorns and i’ll make to make it 3 straight here this afternoon. Texas has covered 8 of its last 10 games and are 4-0 ATS as road dogs in the Big 12. Coach Smart has developed this young group of talented players into a very solid team at this point in the year. They have consistently been undervalued in the marketplace and have been very profitable in this role. Largely in part to their terrific defence which has been able to slow down opposing offences. They are coming off a confidence boosting win vs. Texas Tech and this looks to me as a game in which they can be in until the final whistle. On the other side, TCU has made vast improvements under Jamie Dixon and he deserves a ton of credit. TCU squeaked out a 3 point win @ Texas just under a month ago, and I would expect another tight defensive battle today. In Big 12 play TCU is 4-5 SU & 5-4 ATS. In conference play, their 4 victories have came by; 3, 3, 6 & 7 points. This is not a team built to blow teams out and win by margin. This looks like a game that comes down to the final possession and I will back the Longhorns here once again in this underdog role which has been very profitable this season.
Oklahoma +6
Despite a rough season in the win/loss column, the Sooners continue to play hard and cover numbers. I have been fading Texas Tech recently and will do so again here tonight. Despite only being 2-7 SU in Big 12 play, the Sooners have continuously played teams tough to the final whistle. Keep an eye on OU’s Kameron McGusty, a freshman who has been tremendous for this team this season and is really coming into his own. This team is growing together, and the markets are seeing & reacting to the win/loss numbers instead of what is really going on. On the other side of this game, Texas Tech just isn’t a team that I can lay any type of price with. Their 3 wins in the Big 12 this year have come by; 1, 1 and 6 points. They are in the bottom half of the Big 12 in most offensive and defensive statistical categories. I see no reason for them to be laying -6.5 here in a game that should come down to the final whistle.
Fresno State Pk
Its all about the number in this one for me, I think this number is short and Fresno should be laying about -3 here. Plain and simple, the Aztecs have been awful on the road this season, going 1-6 SU, their only win being @ UNLV. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs from Fresno have been a point spread machine going 12-5 ATS this season and have a 10-1 SU home record. SDSU is way down this season and I think there has been a recency bias attached to their name that has resulted in a 6-11 ATS record this year. Fresno has gone 5-0 ATS in this series, winning 3 of those games outright. The difference this year is that SDSU isn’t as good as those recent years and I think Fresno State is better than they were. I’m getting the equal or slightly better team at a pk price, at home, against a team who has struggled on the road all season, sign me up.
Arizona +3
To me, Arizona is the most dangerous team in the Pac 12 and now that they are healthy, this looks like a final 4 team to me. The Wildcats are 5-0 SU & ATS on the road in Pac-12 play this year. The lost both games to the Ducks last year, including an OT loss in this building. I think this is a spot that they can seek out some revenge and break through on the road. Arizona now has the size and versatility with their bigs that can cause some issues for the Oregon defence. If you haven’t seen Lauri Markkanen, the 7 foot freshman for Arizona pay yet this season, I suggest tuning in tonight. He is a matchup nightmare who can step out and knock down threes. This should pull some of Oregons size out of the lane and open up some opportunities for Arizona to get to the rim. Obviously Oregon is a great team with a great home court, they are 14-0 SU on this floor this year. The concern for the Ducks is the health of Dillon Brooks who has been battling a foot issue all season long. He has been held out of practice this week and should be good to go for this game. But, this isn’t the NFL where stars miss practice and can come in on Sundays and perform. These are college kids who need the continuity and the chemistry to build throughout the season. Maybe looking ahead, Oregon has look shaky in their last 2 games, loosing @ Colorado by 9 and squeaking out a 1 point home win vs. Arizona State. The Ducks just aren’t passing the eye test for me right now. Arizona is the better team, in better health, and in better form and they can win this game outright.
USC / Washington State Over 149
How this number isn’t in the low 150’s is beyond me. With Boatright back in the lineup for the Trojans, this offence is about to take off. They have scored 82, 82, 84 in their last 3 games and I see no reason why they shouldn’t be able to hit 85 here against a putrid Wazzou defence. The Cougars have opened up the floor in their past few games scoring; 79, 79, 91(OT), 94 points. With a fully healthy line-up at his disposal, expect Trojans head coach Andy Enfield to open things up and let his horses run. I think USC will be able to dictate pace and get to the rim at will against Wazzou. As long as Wzzou can come up with 70pts this game is going to be well within the 150’s. I’ll take a shot with the Over.
Carmine Bianco
Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators
Play: Nashville Predators -1.5 +151
If there was ever a time to snap a 5 game losing streak against the Red Wings tonight would be it. The Predators have gone 8-2-1 recently to move up the standings and are doing it at home as well winning 4 of their past 5. Rinne gets the start and is coming off a 2-0 home shutout against the Oilers. The Wings come in off a 5-4 win at home against the Islanders but have looked terrible of late away from home while allowing 22 goals their past 5 (all loses).
Stephen Nover
Portland vs. BYU
Play: BYU -19.5
Portland was bad even before losing star player and leading scorer Alex Wintering for the season with a knee injury. But the Pilots have really fallen apart. They have become a near auto-fade. They are in the throngs of a nine-game losing streak going 2-7-1 ATS. Portland's last two losses have each come at home by 15 to Santa Clara and 16 to San Diego. BYU is a kill mood after losing to Gonzaga in its last game. The Cougars are 11-3-1 ATS following a loss.
Stephen Nover
Elon +5.5
College of Charleston is a letdown spot after getting revenge Thursday nipping UN Wilmington, 67-66, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog.
Elon has won five in a row and has covered eight of its last nine games. The Phoenix are especially tough as a road 'dog covering 16 of the last 21 in that capacity.
SPORTS WAGERS
Carolina +115 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. While we hate to zig zag on teams (we had Islanders and bet against Carolina last night), we also know that when an extended winning streak is broken, it’s difficult to get that intensity back. The Islanders had gone seven straight without a loss prior to a 5-4 defeat in Detroit last night. The Islanders absolutely deserved a better fate, as they dominated but goaltending did them in when Tomas Greiss allowed five goals on a mere 24 shots on net. Detroit scored a very late goal to break a 4-4 tie and it had to be deflating to not even get a point. Now the Islanders will play the tail end of back-to-back games, a situation in which they have posted a record of 2-6 in.
What a difference a break makes. The Hurricanes are now 2-0 after the break after losing five straight before it. They have allowed just one goal in each game and they are a rock solid 6-4 in the second game of back-to-backs. Carolina now comes in with their confidence soaring. They are a possession monster that controls the pace and puck no matter who they are playing. If we lose this game, it’ll be because of weak goaltending, which is a possibility but when taking back a price, we can’t let that prevent us from stepping in. Carolina will carry the play, they’ll dominate time of possession in the offensive end and they’ll get our money.