Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, January 21st, 2017

DAVE COKIN

NORTHERN IOWA AT SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PLAY: NORTHERN IOWA +3.5

This has not been a banner season for Northern Iowa. The 2015-16 campaign ended in ghastly fashion for the Panthers with the unfortunately memorable collapse of the ages against Texas A&M in the NCAA Tournament.

Even with a somewhat different cast of characters, I expected UNI to perhaps struggle early, and that was certainly the case. But it ended up being worse than anticipated and the team seemed to really lose its way after absorbing a couple of ugly beatings against Iowa and North Carolina.

This carried over to the start of MVC play, but that’s also about the time I started looking for a spot to get on the Panthers. The team is not nearly as good as the previous edition, no doubt about that. But I was also convinced they weren’t as terrible as their early season conference play indicated.

I decided to get on Northern Iowa last Sunday as I really liked the spot against a Drake team in a big bounce situation. That worked out well as UNI got an easy win. I then made up my mind to simply start riding the Panthers as a decent value commodity. It wasn’t easy, but they did get the 2OT win and cover Wednesday against Loyola Chicago.

With two wins in the books, I like the idea of staying with what I think is, at least for the time being, an undervalued team. The Panthers finally have a little positive momentum now, and I like the idea of riding them again on Saturday as they visit Southern Illinois. I’m taking the points on Saturday with Northern Iowa.

Sleepyj

Houston -1

Very small wager here tonight on the Rockets....They got blasted yesterday at home and will be looking to get back on track here..Rather short trip for the Rockets to Memphis who played also yesterday...Memphis picked up a big win, but my feeling is Harden puts up a mvp type game tonight...He let the supporting cast try to tangle with the Warriors a little too much yesterday....Rockets have double revenge here for this game as well...This is the start of a 5 game road trip for Houston and I'm sure starting it out with a win would be tops on the list for today....Memphis on the other hand won't play again until Wednesday...Ya gotta wonder if they made plans to get out of town for a few days with the small break...I think this line is a bit cheap here.....Anderson for the Rockets left the game last night with the flu, but I'm thinking he gets back on the floor tonight.

Ben Burns

Anaheim at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -136

Both teams are hot right now but home ice figures to make the difference. While the Ducks are 10-14 away from Anaheim, the Wild are 15-5 here at Minnesota. The Ducks get outscored by a 2.9 to 2.5 average on the road. The Wild outscore opponents by a commanding 3.4 to 1.9 average margin here at Minnesota. Take a look at the home team.

Scott Spreitzer

Wyoming vs. New Mexico
Play: Wyoming +8

New Mexico won outright as road dogs in each of their last two games, snapping back from a three-game losing streak, including an outright home loss to UNLV as a double-digit favorite. It's an odd team that's failed to cover its last four home games. They're bad from behind the arc, weak on the glass, and can't defend the 3-point line. The Lobos have just two players averaging over 6.9 ppg and just one player pulls down more than 4.5 rpg. Wyoming is excellent on the defensive end and have virtually five players averaging in double-digits in scoring. The Cowboys enter on a 4-1 ATS run on the road against teams playing better than .600 basketball at home.

Jim Feist

Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
Play: Under 130

Wisconsin (15-3) plays great defense for Greg Gard, off a 68-64 win over Michigan allowing 43% shooting. Wisconsin is on a 20-7 under the total run, including 20-7 under on the road. The Under is 17-7 in the Badgers last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Minnesota (15-4) also plays tough defense for Richard Pitino, on a 9-5 run under the total. They have had a week to prepare after a Saturday win at Penn State (52-50). Minnesota is 10-3 under the total in Big 10 play and the under is 69-32-1 in the Golden Gophers last 102 Saturday games. Last year Wisconsin won at Minnesota (63-49) and this will be another defensive duel.

Dave Price

Arizona vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA -6½

The UCLA Bruins are 19-1 and legitimately one of the best teams in college basketball. They haven't even been tested at home this season, and their only loss came on a buzzer-beater at Oregon, which is also one of the top teams in the land. The Bruins are 11-0 at home this season, scoring 98.1 points and giving up 73.5 points per game. This will be the best team that Arizona has faced this year. The Bruins upset the Wildcats 87-84 as 3-point home dogs last season, and they weren't very good last year. UCLA is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Bruins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Ray Monohan

Toledo vs. Kent State
Play: Kent State -1½

The Golden Flashes are in the perfect spot here to rebound from a tough stretch as they take on the Toledo Rockets on Saturday night.

The value here comes from the Rockets horrid road play.

Toledo has gone just 1-5 away from home and allows an average of 88.7 points per game.

Given the need for a win here to get out of this rut, this is a game where Kent State can dominate the paint and use their offensive rebounding edge to a huge advantage.

Some trends to note. Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.

Expect Kent to really come out firing here as they take huge advantage of the paint and drop Toledo here.

Chip Chirimbes

Nebraska vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers +1½

It just seems to be the same old story with Rutgers since the joined the Big Ten be it football or basketball they just seem over-matched. We are all aware of how bad their football team was and the 'cage' unit is doing their best the reach even lower levels if possible. The Knights are 14-37 ATS in their last 51 Big Ten contests, are riding a seven game losing streak and are 0-5 in conference. With all this Rutgers has been given a 'punchers' chance by the odds-makers and I expect they to win here.

Jack Jones

Colorado vs. Washington State
Play: Washington State +5

I look at Colorado and Washington State like evenly-matched teams. The Buffaloes are 10-9 this season, while the Cougars are 9-9. That's why I see a ton of value here in getting the Cougars as 5-point home underdogs in a game they should probably be favored in.

Colorado has been an overvalued commodity all season, especially here of late. The Buffaloes have lost six straight games coming in while going 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are 0-6 in Pac-12 play this year despite being the favorite in two of those contests.

Washington State has at least gone 2-4 in Pac-12 action with a road win at Washington as 12.5-point dogs and a home win over Oregon State by 13 as 4-point favorites. The last four games have been very tough with home losses to Oregon and Utah, and road losses to Stanford and Cal.

Colorado is just 2-5 in true road games this season with its only wins at Air Force and Portland. The Buffaloes are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog. Washington State is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 home games after having lost four of its last five games coming in.

Matt Josephs

Tulsa vs. South Florida
Play: Under 136½

South Florida has one of the worst offenses in college basketball especially without Jahmal McMurray who left the program early in the season. Since conference play has begun, the Bulls have failed to hit the 70 point mark with their high being 67 against woeful Tulane at home. They've gone under in half of those games because at times they can play good defense. They've held five teams to 65 points or less. Tulsa doesn't mind a lower scoring game as they've gone under in four of their last six games. They've held three conference opponents to less then 70 points already this season. They've also scored less then 65 points in four of their last seven. To me, this one should be played at a slower pace and the under is worth a look.

Rocketman

Murray State @ Austin Peay
Play: Murray State -4.5

The Murray State Racers travel to Austin Peay to take on the Governors on Saturday night. Murray State is 11-9 SU overall this year while Austin Peay comes in with a 6-14 SU overall record on the season. Murray State is 24-10 ATS last 34 games as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points. Austin Peay is 0-10 SU and 1-8 ATS last 10 games as a home underdog of 3 1/2 to 6 points. Austin Peay is 0-7 SU and 1-5 ATS this year against good offensive teams scoring 77 points per game or more. Murray State is scoring 79.9 points per game overall this year and 78.5 points per game against conference opponents this season. Austin Peay is allowing 84.7 points per game overall this year, 82.9 points per game at home this season, 80.2 points per game their past 5 games overall and 80.5 points per game against conference opponents this season. We'll recommend a small play on Murray State tonight!

Dave Essler

Notre Dame -8

I'm not a huge fan of laying a TD here, but the Irish should be able to shoot over the Syracuse zone, and as they did when we took them at Miami last week - they'll find ways to score inside, too. Major revenge game from a beatdown last year at Syracuse. Even with UVA coming up on the Irish's schedule, they are one team that's experienced enough and well-coached to the point where I don't see them losing focus here, and the 'Cuse, for their size, are not a great rebounding team.

Jesse Schule
Miami +10

Duke has struggled since the start of conference play, losing three of five games. Their most recent home win was a rather uninspiring victory over Boston College, hanging on to win by a score of 93-82. The bookmakers are asking them to win today's game against ACC rivals Miami by a double-digit margin, and history suggests that might be tough. The Canes have won the last two meetings outright, including a 90-74 win at Cameron Indoor Stadium last January. Miami has always given Duke a tough game, and the Hurricanes are 7-0-1 in their last eight games as the visitor in this series. Duke is still banged up, as senior forward Amile Jefferson has missed the last two games, and isn't likely to play tonight. Jefferson leads the team in rebounding, averaging over 10 rebounds per game. In the two games he's missed, Duke has averaged 31 rebounds per game, well below it's season average of 36.4. Grayson Allen scored 23 points in the loss to Louisville, but committed six turnovers. The junior guard is walking on thin ice, and every move he makes is being scrutinized. All things considered, I think this Duke team is in no position to be such a huge favorite versus a conference rival.

Tony George

Ball State vs. Bowling Green
Play: Ball State -2

Going to lay the short number on the road here, as Ball St is avenging a home loss to BG after a bad night of shooting in that game. Bowling Green is 7-20-1 ATS their last 28 home games which is just deplorable. Ball State's offense had a bad night in their last meeting, but in their last 5 games Ball State has averaged a whopping 87 ppg, 20 points ppg better than Bowling Green's offense in that same time frame, and Ball St has stat edges in every key category here in this match-up. Since the loss to Bowling Green, Ball State has ripped off 3 straight wins, all by double Digits! Revenge is sweet, lay the short number.