Matt Fargo
Utah vs. Washington
Play: Utah -2½
Utah is off a blowout victory at Washington St. on Thursday as it bounced back from a one-point loss to UCLA at home last Saturday. The Utes should have no problem backing up that win with another one this Saturday as they look to remain in fourth place in the Pac 12. 13 players saw the floor for the Utes on Thursday so there is no issue with fatigue or any sort of letdown. Washington is coming off a big victory against Colorado on Thursday as the Huskies defeated the Buffaloes by a bucket in overtime as they came back from a 17-point second half deficit. Washington is still just 2-4 in the conference as the only other victory came against 0-6 and 4-15 Oregon St. The Huskies are an average team at home with a 7-4 record and they failed to win or cover in their only other game as a home underdog. On the season, Washington is 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS as an underdog and going back, the Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of fewer than seven points.
Jimmy Boyd
Syracuse vs. Notre Dame
Play: Syracuse +8
I like the value here with the Orange as a decently priced road dog against the Fighting Irish. Syracuse comes in off a 68-85 loss at North Carolina, failing to cover as a 14.5-point dog, but definitely had their chances to keep that one close enough to cash. The Orange have been playing much better of late and I think they could be catching the Irish at the right time.
Notre Dame just had their 7-game winning streak and perfect start to ACC play snapped in a heartbreaking 80-83 loss at Florida State. Not to mention the Irish just got done playing 3 straight on the road and have had just 2 days off since the game against the Seminoles. Syracuse on the other hand has had a full 4 days off between games and I think their zone is going to give the Irish fits here.
Keep in mind that the Orange have won 20 of the last 27 in the series and last year won 65-60 at Notre Dame as a 8.5-point dog. An outright win here is definitely not out of the question, but I like their chances of keeping it close.
Larry Ness
Indiana vs. Utah
Pick: Utah
Indiana opened its road swing with a 106-100 victory over the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday, recovering from a 22-point deficit. "We know we haven't had a lot of success on the road," Indiana head coach Nate McMillan told reporters. "There was an emphasis on trying to get that first road win, which was Sacramento. We dug ourselves a hole in that game, but fought our way out of that hole and were able to get that game." However, last night, the Pacers lost 108-96 at Staples to a Lakers team which is 16-31. So much for "emphasis!" The Pacers are led by SF George (22.0-6.1-3.3), the 6-11 Turner (15.6-7.5) and PG Teague (15.6-8.0 APG) but do have seven others averaging between 5.7 and 11.7 PPG (note: Stuckey is out with a hamstring problem). However, defense has been an issue for most of the season, as the Pacers allow 106.6 PPG (23rd).
Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz are rolling, sitting atop the Northwest Division with a 28-16 record (three games up on OKC), which currently gives them the West's No. 5 seed. Center Rudy Gobert (12.8-12.8 ) is dominating games and the potential first-time All-Star looks to help the Utah Jazz extend their season-best winning streak to six games, tonight. He posted career highs of 27 points and 25 rebounds in Friday's 112-107 overtime victory over the Dallas Mavericks for his 30th double-double of the campaign and he has reached double digits in rebounds for 29 consecutive games! His emergence is part of the reason why Utah is headed for a near-certain Western Conference playoff spot. SF Gordon Hayward (22.1-5.8-3.6) has been the team's best player the last few ears and could also be headed for the All Star game, which would be a first.
The Pacers are 6-15 SU and ATS on the road, allowing 109.9 PPG. That hardly bodes well against a Utah team leading the NBA in points allowed (95.2) and in opponents' FG percentage (43.1). The Jazz remain underpriced.
Zack Cimini
Milwaukee vs. Miami
Pick: Miami
We have a couple variables to take the Heat on Saturday as a free play. One they have blended nicely playing team basketball with health rounding into form. At home they've shown to be much more comfortable. If not for a poor first half against the Bucks a week ago this line likely would be large. Coach Spoelstra made some nice second half defensive adjustments in that matchup that will carry over to Saturday.
David Banks
Miami vs. Duke
Pick: Duke -10
Duke will almost certainly fall in the college basketball rankings after losing two games last week to No. 9 Florida State (88-72) and No. 14 Louisville (78-69). The Blue Devils need to find a way to pull themselves out of their two-game skid and win games they should win. It starts on Saturday night with a home game against Miami. Duke is just 2-3 in the ACC right now and can’t afford to lose many more conference games if they are to have a shot at winning the regular season title.
Miami continues to play well and has done so under the radar. Head coach Jim Larranaga just won his 600th career game when the Hurricanes beat Pitt last Saturday. Larranaga’s teams are known for their defense and this year’s ‘Canes are no different. Miami is currently fourth in the nation in team defense allowing just 59.4 points per game. The Hurricanes are 12-4 so far this season (2-2 in the ACC) with losses to No. 20 Notre Dame and No. 21 Iowa State.
Duke has just run into a tough part of their schedule. They have lost three of their last five games, but all three were on the road. The Blue Devils head back to Cameron Indoor Stadium to face Miami and N.C. State. Duke has not lost at home this season. Luke Kennard continues to lead the Blue Devils in scoring with 20.2 points per game. Freshman Jayson Tatum averages 16.8 points and 6.6 rebounds a game and fellow freshman Harry Giles continues to play more and improve. Grayson Allen is back in the lineup and adds 15.7 points and 4.3 assists per game.
Harry Bondi
MEMPHIS +1.5 over Houston
This is simply an absolute brutal scheduling spot for Houston. Not only are the Rockets coming off a deflating blowout loss last night to Golden State, but this is the team’s fourth game in five nights and five game in seven nights with trips to Brooklyn and Miami included during that span.Look for those tired legs to play a factor down the stretch here tonight, especially against a Memphis team that has covered six of the last 10 meetings between these two teams and is undefeated against divisional opponents this season. Take the home dog!
Mike Rose
Texas vs, Kansas
Play: Texas +17
This is the mother of all look-ahead spots for the Jayhawks who just so happen to have a date with the West Virginia Mountaineers lined up next; in Morgantown. If you remember correctly, the Jayhawks had their 13 game win streak snapped last season when they last paid the ‘Neers a visit. Kansas has failed to win each of its last three visits to Morgantown and failed to cover all four Big 12 trips dating back to 2013. As much as they’ll want to concentrate on the task at hand, it’s going to be extremely tough not to overlook the Horns for bigger game ahead.
Kansas has won each of the last five times it hosted this rivalry, but has failed to cover in two straight as well as four of the last six. Kansas holds a decisive edge on the glass, but it’s simply way to prone to turning the ball over and is running up against a desperate Texas team that’s done a better job of forcing miscues of late. The Horns have fallen by less than 10 points in its last two trips to the Phog, and is receiving a healthy amount of points in this matchup. We’re nearing do or die time for Texas. It needs to start coming up with wins in games like this. I don’t believe they’ll pull that feat off here, but with Kansas likely overlooking them, I give Shaka’s squad a solid shot of not getting embarrassed in this one.
Cal Sports
Syracuse at Notre Dame
Play: Syracuse +8
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into this matchup 16-3 overall and 5-1 in the ACC while the Syracuse Orange are 11-8 with a 3-3 conference record. The Irish are off a loss at Florida State with their other two defeats coming against Purdue and Villanova, both at neutral settings. Syracuse is 0-4 in true road games this season including dropping all 3 away in ACC action to Boston College, Virginia Tech and in their last game to North Carolina. The ‘Cuse has won 4 straight in this series covering 3 of them.
Syracuse uses a nine man rotation with players averaging between 15.4 and 34.7 minutes per game. Andrew White III is the leading scorer averaging 15.8 PPG followed by Tyler Lydon (13.7 PPG) who also leads the team in rebounding (7.6 reb/gm). John Gillon and Frank Howard both average 5.1 assists/game. The Orange have my #43 offense averaging 75.9 PPG and have my #63 defense allowing 67.0 PPG.
The Irish have 7 players which average over 14 minutes per game and are very balanced with four of them scoring between 13.9 and 15.5 PPG. Bonzie Colson leads the team in scoring (15.5 PPG) and rebounding (10.7 reb/gm). Steve Vasturia scores 15.5 PPG with Matt Farrell adding 14.2 PPG while leading his troops with 5.5 assists per game. Notre Dame leads the nation in free-throw % shooting 82.4% and have my #7 offense averaging 81.1 PPG. On defense Notre Dame has my #77 unit and on the year they are allowing 67.5 PPG.
Notre Dame is in a new role as a sizeable ACC favorite. The Irish have been a conference favorite 3 times but their largest spread was 4 points and they won that game by only 5 points. The Irish rely on 3 point shots and in fact hit an unheard of 73.3% in their loss to Florida St. Syracuse’s unique zone defense will cause the Irish to slow down their offensive attack and in their previous four meeting Notre Dame only scored 47, 55, 60 and 66 points. Expect this game to be in the 60’s and Syracuse to keep it close enough to cover this generous line.
Carmine Bianco
Sunderland at West Brom
Play: West Brom
WB have played well at home and own a respectable 5-2-3 record and wins in 4 of the last 5 home league matches and should add another against a Sunderland side that's gone 1-1-8 away from home and have lost their last 4 by a combined 12-2 differential.
Jeffrey James
Iowa St +1
The Cyclones will be very ready to get a win here since they have lost their last 2 games in a row. No way the Cyclones can afford to lose 3 conference games in a row and they get a perfect team to beat up on here with Oklahoma. The Sooners are 6-17 ATS their last 23 Saturday games and they have failed to cover their last 5 games against Iowa State. The Sooners are a good football school, not so good a basketball school.
Brad Wilton
Have to give Providence head coach Ed Cooley some props, as he has taken this year's team and guided them to a 13-7 mark. I have watched the Friars play multiple times this year, and the word that comes to mind is "overachievers".
While the Friars are off back-to-back Big East victories, they are most definitely stepping up in class against the defending NCAA champion Wildcats, and right now Jay Wright's team is in prime form.
Villanova has won and covered 4 in a row since their lone loss to Butler back on January 4th. All 4 of the wins have come by double-digits, and in 3 of those 4 games, the Wildcats were double-digit favorites.
The 'Cats have now covered 6 of 8 at home, and 12 of 18 lined games overall. Look for them to stretch it today against the Friars.
Villanova is 7-1 straight up the past 8 series meetings, but that one loss did come almost one year ago today on the Wildcats home court in overtime.
Look for Villanova to well remember that setback, as they hammer Providence this afternoon.
5* VILLANOVA
Eric Schroeder
My free play is on Georgia (12-6 overall, 4-2 in the SEC), as the Bulldogs head to Texas A&M (9-8, 1-5) for a conference clash I think the Dawgs should win outright.
Fact is, while it's not a must-win that will help the team's RPI rating, it would certainly hurt to lose this one. With the record Georgia has right now, the Bulldogs are a team that would be on the bubble.
So far, the Bulldogs have four wins away from home this eason, with two of them at other SEC venues. This game shouldn't shake them up too much.
Georgia rolls into this one playing as well as it has all year, having won three of four. Texas A&M, meanwhile, has lost five of six and two straight.
Take the road pup here.
3* GEORGIA
Chris Jordan
Shortly before my premium play tips off, my complimentary winner starts, as Kansas hosts Texas in Big 12 play. This past Monday I delivered a 2,000♦ winner on Kansas, and today it is my free play over the Longhorns.
Kansas brings a 17-game win streak - including six in a row in league play - into this game. And as I mentioned on Monday, coach Bill Self is never satisfied. He is complimentary of his team, but he also is constructively critical of how much better his team can be.
Rightfully so, too, since Kansas has had trouble at times, putting together a solid 40-minute performance. And usually it's against teams the Jayhawks should annihilate. They didn't have that issue on Monday, however, as they slowly built momentum en route to thrashing of Iowa State.
Today, after four days off to prepare for Texas, the second-ranked Jayhawks will once again step to the floor focused long enough to exhibit two full halves of effort. The Jayhawks entered the week with the No. 4 adjusted offense according to KenPom, thanks to a seasoned backcourt with guards Frank Mason III and Devonte’ Graham.
Kansas' dynamic duo averages about 34 points and 10.1 assists per game, while talented freshman Josh Jackson is averaging around 15 points and 6 rebounds at the small forward spot.
Self, being critical as usual, expects a close game. Maybe it's because Texas’ last eight losses have been by a combined 38 points, for an average margin of defeat of 4.8 points per loss.
Personally, I think Texas coach Shaka Smart's young squad won't be able to withstand the offensive surges Kansas goes through, and the Jayhawks roll to a 20+ point victory.
Lay the chalk.
5* KANSAS
BRANDON LEE
Wake Forest vs. NC State
Play: NC State -1
I'm backing the Wolfpack at basically a pick'em at home against the Demon Deacons on Saturday. NC State is a 11-1 at home this season and fresh off a 79-74 win at home against Pitt as a mere 3-point favorite. Wake Forest is getting a lot of respect here off a 96-79 win at home over Miami (FL), but are just 2-4 in ACC play. They have lost 3 straight on the road with the last two coming by 15+ points. Demon Deacons are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 off a SU win and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 as a dog of 6.5 or less. NC State is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less.
SPORTS WAGERS
Penn St +13 over PURDUE
This one sets up perfectly to take the points. First, we have a ranked team at home spotting points to an unranked opponent and that always means paying a premium. The Boilermakers come in ranked 21st in the country with a 15-4 overall record but it’s not all peaches and cream. Despite some good wins, Purdue has played the 214th ranked schedule in the country. They have already defeated then #13 Wisconsin and then #21 Notre Dame while losing to Duke by just three and to Louisville by just seven. However, the Boilermakers also have some close calls against teams they should’ve beaten rather handily and after a blowout win (91-68) over Illinois, Purdue is in danger of being complacent here as a big favorite with a two-game road trip on deck.
Penn State is obviously more known for its football program than basketball but there are a lot of things to like about the Nittany Lions this season. What sticks out most is Penn State’s efficiency at both ends of the court, thus, if the Boilermakers shooting is cold, their defense can keep them in games for an extended period of time. Penn State’s defensive efficiency ranks 31st in the country, which is a key stat here. As an example, Georgia Tech, who’s defensive efficiency ranks 49th in the country was a 16-point road dog to Virginia Tech this past Wednesday and came within a whisker of pulling off a stunning upset. The Jackets lost by a point (62-61) and this one has a similar ring to it. Playing a strength of schedule that ranks 43rd in the country, Penn State’s defensive efficiency sticks out even more. In a recent win over the fast paced Minnesota Golden Gophers, PSU shot horribly and won 52-50. The Nittany Lions have the ability to hang around here and with a big window to work with, we're suggesting they come in well under the number.
Colorado St +3½ over UTAH ST
Earlier this season, Colorado State was cast as a heavy 13½-point dog when they traveled across state to face their arch nemesis and greatest enemy Colorado. The public was leaning heavily against the Rams but they would defeat the Buffaloes by a score of 72-58. A similar situation seems to be manifesting here with the Rams, as they head to Logan, Utah to face off with the Aggies, who have won its previous two against the Rams in this Mountain West conference clash. Despite losing their two previous games at both SDSU and Wyoming, the Aggies have won their last two home contests and covered impeccably against UNLV and New Mexico. This is a scarcity given the fact the Aggies have been overvalued at 4-9 ATS this season and with back-to-back covers, now would be the correct time to fade them again. The Aggies remaining four wins at home came against Idaho State, New Jersey Tech, New Orleans and Great Falls, not exactly a ferocious ensemble of invaders by any stretch.
Contrarily, Colorado State on the road this year has lost at Long Beach State, Boise State, Stanford and most recently Fresno State. Two of these losses were by just a point, including at Long Beach State and against Boise State, who some bracketologists hastily began to pencil into their preliminary NCAA Men’s Tournament brackets. In addition CSU traveled to a red-hot Stanford at the beginning of the regular season and to Fresno State (their most recent loss) who stand at 12-7. In all four of these games, the Rams played these teams tougher than expected, as they were cast as an underdog and yet they went 4-0 ATS. In addition, the Rams are a far more efficient team than Utah State, thus they can score more points with less possessions than the Aggies can.
In fairness, Utah State has played some tough ones on the road but at home it appears that the Aggies were committed to padding their schedule to cultivate a false sense of home court advantage and now in a perceived favorable scenario, the Aggies are spotting points to a team that night be better than they are. Lastly and perhaps most significantly is that this is the Aggies first game back after a bye week, meaning they have been off for seven days and are unlikely to be sharp.
UC Santa Barbara +4½ over UC RIVERSIDE
Make no mistake - this is not a clash of the titans by any means. What we have here is a rivalry series contest between two dregs in one of the worst conferences in college basketball, the Big West. Out of the gate we have seen an initial reaction from a market that is heavily weighing in on the Gauchos winless road record this season. Nevertheless, UCSB may finally be in position to change its stars. As of recent, Santa Barbara has exerted their will in this Golden State feud, as they have won seven of their previous nine against Riverside regardless of where the contest transpired. While neither team has put together an impressive résumé of performances this season, Riverside is currently riding the hot hand, as they have won two of their four sparingly-occurring wins this season in back-to-back outings leading up to this fixture. Riverside has also covered in their last four offerings as an underdog but now they enter uncharted territory as the favorite. This is the first time this season that the Highlanders will be spotting points and that’s an entirely different rile than taking points. Spotting points with bad teams seldom works out well.
In addition to the mental edge that the Gauchos possess, UCSB has played a more robust schedule than Riverside. When comparing the two dockets, both Santa Barbara and Riverside have not strayed from getting their hands dirty out-of-conference as the Gauchos’ non-conference SOS ranks 31st nationally while Riverside sits at 88th nationally in its non-conference SOS. Overall, the Gauchos have played a more rugged itinerary, as their SOS ranks 77th compared to Riverside, which sits at 160th. These differences will likely have an impact in the outcome of this contest. Furthermore, Santa Barbara commits fewer turnovers, they score more points and they are more physical on the boards than Riverside as well. When you add in that Santa Barbara also has the stronger bench, Riverside may find itself worn thin very quickly. Santa Barbara outright is a distinct possibility so we are going to split this up and play the Gauchos for a unit on the money line @ +177 and a unit taking the points to make up for our traditional 2-unit wager. The risk is 2.06 units to win 2.77 units.