Will Rogers
Washington vs. Dallas
Pick: Washington
The set-up: The 30-9-6 Washington Capitals have not lost in regulation in 12 games (10-0-2) but the Caps visit Dallas on Saturday night. While the Stars are just 19-20-8, Washington has dropped NINE in a row to the Stars dating to October 2008 and hasn't won in regulation at Dallas in more than 21 years (Oct. 17, 1995)!
Washington: "I don't know the last time we won in Dallas, but everybody tells me it's like never," Capitals head coach Barry Trotz said. The Caps seek to end the drought against the Stars after rebounding from a wild 8-7 overtime loss in Pittsburgh with a dominant 7-3 victory at St. Louis on Thursday which boosted their point total to a league-best 66. Offense usually isn't an issue for Washington but now the team is receiving major contributions from the entire lineup. The third line of Andre Burakovsky, Brett Connolly and Lars Eller continue to light up the scoreboard -- Burakovsky has scored in three straight, Connolly has four goals in his last six and Eller three tallies in the past five. “They’re good skaters ... they got some speed, they got some snipe, they got some good hockey sense," Trotz said. "They’re making it happen right now.”
Dallas: The Stars been unable to reclaim the form that produced a Western Conference-best 109 points in 2015-16. With just points, Dallas currently sits outside the playoff picture. Dallas has won at least two games in a row only once since Nov. 10-11, and Thursday's 3-0 setback at the Islanders dropped the team to 3-12-4 following a victory. "It's frustrating," center Jason Spezza. "We need to pick up points. We're in a dogfight, and there are a lot of teams in that pack with us. We have to win games; we have to learn how to win consecutive games. We've got to find a way to get points."
The pick: However, the Stars have a chance to make a move up the standings as they kick off a six-game homestand that will bookend the All-Star break. Their dominance over the Caps has been well-documented but the Capitals are 12-4-5 on the road and 9-0-1 over their past 10 contests. They've scored five or more goals in five consecutive games, including back-to-back seven-goal performances. Take Washington to break the hex Dallas has held over them.
Stephen Nover
Cincinnati / Tulane Over 139
I'm not impressed with Tulane's defense as it has allowed 80 or more points in all but one of its last six games. The Green Wave do rank first in the AAC in tempo, though. That's a good over combination.
Cincinnati beat Tulane 92-56 earlier this season. The teams put up 172 points in their lone meeting last season. The over has cashed seven of the last eight times Tulane has been an underdog.
Cincinnati can win either by offense or defense. Against this particular opponent, I see the Bearcats winning with offense just like in the first meeting.
Stallone Sports
Utah -3
This is a cheap price to support an undervalued team here with the Utes who are healthy and looking like a much different team than they did to start the year. Their zone defence has begun to click and they have looked very impressive as of late. After a road loss @ Arizona they have won 3 of 4, their only loss by 1 against UCLA. They absolutely embarrassed Wazzou on Wednesday and come into this game today fresh and confident. On the other side, I have not been impressed with Washington this season. Yes they have some impressive athletes but they are poorly coached and struggle on both sides of the court. If Utah can get back and set up in their zone defence Washington is going to struggle to score the basketball. I have no issue laying the -3 here with the Utes.
Georgia +3.5
If you have paid any attention whatsoever to either of these two teams this year, this line should be a head scratcher to you. A&M has showed absolutely nothing to warrant laying this number here today against Georgia. A&M’s only SU & ATS win was a blowout in a home game against a putrid LSU team. I think the markets are still thinking of A&M as the impressive tournament team of last year and haven’t come to grips with what they truly are this season. On the other side of the matchup are the Georgia Bulldogs which have been extremely impressive. They have shown they can go on the road and perform well in this role. They have won outright has dogs @ Auburn & Mississippi and lost in OT to Florida in a game they could have easily won. Their defence keeps them in every game and they should be able to slow down a very pedestrian A&M defence here today. Georgia can win this game outright, give me the dog.
Mississippi State +4.5
The Bulldogs have been disrespected and misplaced by the markets since conference play started. Why is Tennessee laying 5 here? Mississippi State has done nothing but impress me since the start of conference play. After an opening loss to Alabama they have covered 4 straight, all as dogs, winning 3 of them outright. 2-0 ATS and SU as road dogs against LSU & Arkansas. In their last matchup they hung tough with Kentucky, only loosing by 7 at home, easily covering the +14. They come into Tennessee facing a Volunteer squad who is struggling and searching for an identity. They have lost 4 of 5 SU & ATS with their only win @ Vanderbilt where they shot the lights out. There is NO reason why they are laying 5 here against Mississippi State. The young gun Bulldogs are explosive on offence and extremely well coached under Ben Howland. They have the athleticism to match up with Tennessee and have a great shot to win this game, so ill gladly grab the +4.5
Florida State -4
I’m not ready to get off this bandwagon just yet! This looks to be a great spot here for the Seminoles. Yes, Louisville had no issue knocking off Clemson in their first game without Quentin Snider. However, this will be a much tougher task on the road against the deep, athletic Seminoles. I’m not so sure that Louisville's aggressive pressing style will yield positive results in this ball game. Florida State will welcome that and look to break pressure and run the floor. The absence of Snider will be felt on the road here in a game where turnovers will result in points scored on the other end by the Seminoles. I’ve said it a bunch already this year, but I really like this Florida State team, their depth and athleticism is tremendous and they have been unstoppable at home this season. I see them winning this game by 7-10 points and will lay the -4 here.
Wunderdog
Idaho State @ North Dakota
Pick: Idaho State +13
Idaho State comes off a 73-69 win at Northern Colorado as a +6.5 dog. Idaho State got balanced shooting across its lineup, hitting 54.2 percent from the field and 9-of-18 from three-point range. Brandon Boyd contributed 13 points and Geno Luzcando added another 12. The Bengals are 15-6-1 ATS as an underdog of +7-13. They are a big dog again to a North Dakota squad that is poor from the free throw line (68%) and has failed to cover four of its last five home contests.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +153 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. We’re not going to go into a lot of details here because it is not necessary. The Devils played last night at home against the Habs and lost 3-1 with Keith Kinkaid in goal. All three Montreal goals were scored on the power play. Cory Schneider gets this call here and he is 3-1 lifetime in this building with a .933 save percentage. In the second-game of back-to-backs this season, the Devils are 5-2-3.
This wager, however, is all about fading teams’ coming off their bye week. Philadelphia has been off since last Saturday’s 5-0 loss to Washington. NHL players are not accustomed to having a week off in the middle of the season with no practices. That means players have a REAL week off to do whatever they want. It means trips to sunny locations and not thinking much about hockey. It takes these players completely out of routine and it is an obstacle to be sure. The Flyers have major goaltending problems among other issues. Michal Neuvirth will get the start here because Steve Mason can’t stop a beach ball these days. Neuvirth has missed a lot of time this year and comes in with a 3.30 GAA and .877 save percentage. Claude Giroux has just one goal in the last 17 games and is minus-15 in the last 15 games. In a recent game against the Canucks, Philadelphia took eight minor penalties and followed that up with six against the Bruins the very next night before closing out their pre-break schedule with that aforementioned 5-0 loss to the Capitals. The Devils figure to be sharper here because every team coming off the bye week so far has looked lethargic and Philadelphia is not likely to be an exception. Teams coming off byes are 1-3 with Toronto being the only team to win but they were outshot 37-23 in that game. Two of those four teams coming off byes did not score a goal. Yeah, we'll bite.
Ottawa +140 over TORONTO
OT included. We’ve been high on the Maple Leafs all season long and for good reason. The Leafs have provided their backers with a lot of profit this season especially early on but the value on them is long gone and so it might be the right time to start taking back some value against them. That applies here. The Maple Leafs are not sneaking up on anyone anymore. They are recognized as a highly skilled, quick and talented team but the opposition has been better prepped lately and the Senators will be too. While the Maple Leafs remain an offensive juggernaut, their defense struggled last game out without the 22 minutes a night that Morgan Reilly was logging. Fredrick Andersen has been red-hot in some games and ice-cold in others. There isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict how he’ll fare here but this is a HUGE game between two bitter rivals that are neck and neck in the standings. Andersen rarely excels in a big game scenario. In his last game versus the Sens, Andersen allowed five goals on 30 shots for a save percentage of .833. The Maple Leafs also have just four wins in 16 games against top-10 competition and nine wins in 23 games against top-16.
Ottawa is 8-7 against top 10 teams and 15-11 against top-16, which is a rather large contrast to Toronto’s weak record against the better teams. For whatever reason, the Sens get very little credit for being as good as they are. Mike Condon has been rock solid in goal. The Sens just went into St. Louis and Columbus and won both games in different fashion. They defeated the Blue Notes 6-4 and followed that up with a 2-0 win in Columbus. The Sens can trade punches with anyone and they can play a grind out game too. Ottawa has won four of five with their other two victories over that span occurring against Edmonton and Pittsburgh so they are quite comfortable playing the speed game too. The Senators are Canada’s forgotten team that is in great form and it’s all legit. Big overlay here.
Matt Rivers
I'm going to lay the points with Kentucky (-13) at home against South Carolina with 1st place at stake in the SEC.
The Gamecocks improved to 5-0 with Wednesday's 57-53 win at home against Florida, but they sure didn't play well, shooting just 29 percent.
South Carolina is tough as nails defensively (No 5. in the country with 59.4 ppg allowed), but playing at Rupp Arena and stopping a Kentucky attack No. 3 in the nation with a per game average of 93.3 points is another story.
I also think Coach Cal will have his team ready to roll after a miserable game at Miss State on Tuesday. His Cats were up 18 with 12 to play and 5 minutes later it was a 3 point game. Kentucky won 88-81 but you know Coach Cal wasn't happy with Miss State shooting 56.3 percent in the second half.
Kentucky has won its first 3 SEC home games and scored 92, 97 and 100 points in them, beating Auburn by 20, Arkansas by 26 and Texas A&M by 42. The Wildcats are on a 20-7 ATS roll in Lexington and I've got no problem laying the big points with them today.
3* KENTUCKY
Chris Jordan
My late freebie is on the Saint Mary's Gaels laying a big number to the Pepperdine Waves.
No. 23 Saint Mary’s looked good Thursday at home against Pacific, as the Gaels bounced back from the Gonzaga thumping by rolling the Tigers, 62-50.
Saint Mary's is still undefeated in home-court conference play, thanks to big man Jock Landale, who notched his seventh double-double of the season with 10-points and 10 rebounds.
Now, back in a groove, you can expect the Gaels to light things up at home on a Saturday night against a weakened Pepperdine team that doesn't have the same weapons as Saint Mary's.
Lay the home chalk.
2* ST. MARY'S
Brad Wilton
Don't sleep on the Wizards!
Washington is on a roll as they head into the Motor City on Saturday, as Scott Brooks' team enters riding a 4-game winning streak, and they have been straight up winners in 10 of their last 13 games overall.
The Wizards have already dealt the Pistons a setback in the teams first meeting this year, as they dumped Detroit 122-108 back on December 16th in D.C. to make it 5-1 in favor of Washington the past 6 series meetings. They have also covered in 4 of the last 5 versus Detroit, so forgive me if I am bullish on backing the visitors in this spot. Especially when you consider the Pistons are maddeningly inconsistent.
Stan Van Gundy's team has won their last pair of games, including a crush-job of Atlanta their last time out on their home court, but those wins were preceded by straight up and against the spread losses in their 3 prior games! For the year, Detroit is only 11-9 at home both straight up and against the spread.
The Wizards are "feeling it" right now, and I like them in this Saturday showdown against the Pistons.
4* WASHINGTON