Free Picks for Saturday, January 28th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
NEW MEXICO AT NEVADA
PLAY: NEW MEXICO +4
This is pretty obvious, as New Mexico will have what has to be called meaningful revenge. The first meeting was one of the worst collapses at the finish I’ve ever seen. The Lobos subsequently had a bad hangover game and lost at the finish again vs. UNLV.
But they’ve since won four straight and are playing by far their best basketball of the season. I can’t see any way the Lobos don’t look at this as their most important game of the season.
Nevada is a tough team for sure, but in a game I figure is very competitive, I will be on what should be a very fired up New Mexico plus the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Texas A&M vs. West Virginia
Play: Texas A&M +16
Not to oversimplify but this is too many points that are being given by the Mountaineers in this one. West Virginia is off of a huge win over Kansas and now plays in a non-conference match-up where there is truly no incentive to run up the score. The Mountaineers had lost two straight and failed to cover 5 of 6 before they got the big win over the Jayhawks Tuesday. After impressing in non-conference action, the West Virginia defense has not been as impressive since Big 12 action got underway Just look at the shooting percentages the Mountaineers have allowed since late December. As for the Aggies, they are working to build a little momentum and would like to maintain that here. Texas A & M is off of back to back wins and, even though their 11-8 overall record this season is not that impressive, note that 7 of the 8 losses came by 11 points or less. I just don't see them getting blown out here in a game that arguably means more to them than it does to the Mountaineers. WVU is 1-3 ATS this season when off of a win against a conference rival and 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 games against SEC foes. The Aggies are 17-9 ATS when off of a win against a conference rival.
Scott Spreitzer
UCF vs. Tulsa
Play: UCF +2
The Knights were rolling along on a 7-1 SU run and sitting at 14-4 for the season before losing their last two games in close fashion. But I expect UCF to get back to their winning ways on Saturday. The Knights are nasty-stingy on defense where they have held teams to a 3rd best 59.4 ppg. UCF is the nation's best in FG percentage allowed at 34.8%, while holding teams under 30% from behind the arc (9th best). This is not good news for a Tulsa team that struggles at times with their shots, ranked 226th in the nation in FG percentage. Despite playing so well on the defensive end, the Knights have four players averaging more than 10 ppg, while Tacko Fall, A.J. Davis, and Nick Banyard combine for more than 24 rebounds per contest. As a a team, UCF owns a +15.4 rebound margin per game.
John Martin
Clippers vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -12½
I don't give the Clippers much of a chance tonight without Chris Paul. They have struggled without him against much worse competition than the Warriors. They are just 1-3 in their last 4 games overall with a home loss to Minnesota, a 25-point road loss to Denver and an 11-point road loss at Philadelphia. The Warriors are 20-3 at home this season while outscoring the opposition by nearly 16 points per game. The Warriors have won their last two meetings with the Clippers by 16 and 17 points, and that was even with Chris Paul in the lineup. The Clippers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Warriors are 39-16-2 ATS in their last 57 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Clippers are 6-18 ATS in the last 24 meetings in Golden State.
Jesse Schule
Wake Forest +4½
The Duke Blue Devils have underachieved this season, but they are still expected to cover points on the road at Wake Forest. Coach K has banned the team from wearing Duke apparel, and the players have been told that they will not have access to the locker room until they start living up to expectations. There's no doubt that Duke will be motivated to get back on track today, but at what point should we stop expecting this team to snap out of it, and just conclude that this is who they are. Interim head coach Jeff Capel has lost three of five games since Coach K had surgery, and will remain in charge until at least mid February. The Blue Devils are 0-3 on the road versus ACC teams, while Wake is 7-2 at home. The home team has covered in 22 of the last 30 meetings between the two teams.
Chip Chirimbes
Illinois vs. Penn State
Play: Illinois +3
Streaks are part of the 'action' and they are in full force here as Penn State has dropped their last three and Illinois hasn't won back-to-back conference games since March of 2015. The Illini will get a chance to end that negative streak with a win at University Park where the Lions are 7-4 on the season. Illinois is 0-4 in true road games and have lost by an average of 18 points and now they are just a big bucket away. Penn State has dropped four of the last five meetings and today will be another defeat.
Jack Jones
Ohio State vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -1
The Iowa Hawkeyes have been a terrible road team this season, but it has been a completely different story at home. The Hawkeyes have taken care of business at home this season, and I like the price we are getting here Saturday as they basically just have to win to cover against Ohio State.
The Hawkeyes have gone 7-1 in their last eight home games. That includes wins over the likes of Iowa State, Michigan and Purdue. The only loss came to Maryland, which has been one of the best teams in the Big Ten, and the Hawkeyes took them right down to the wire.
The Buckeyes are just 2-4 in true road games this season with their only wins coming at Navy (by 10) and at Nebraska (by 1). They lost to Wisconsin by 23, Minnesota by 10 and Illinois by 5 in their other three true road games in conference play.
Ohio State is 2-10 ATS in Saturday road games over the last three seasons. The Buckeyes are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Ohio State is 9-26-1 ATS in its last 36 road games overall. Off three straight losses, expect a big effort from the Hawkeyes in this one.
Brandon Shively
Samford-5
This is a terrible spot for VMI on Saturday afternoon after their 4th win of the season. They are 6-19 SU the last 3 years after a win including 0-4 SU as a home dog with losses by 2, 4, 9, and 12 points.
VMI isn’t coming off just any win though. They beat arguably the best team in the conference in Chattanooga behind one man basically as a 20 point road dog! QJ Peterson scored 40 of the team's 80 points going 15-for-19 from the floor. Peterson is going to take the shots, he always does, but I don’t expect him to make everything he throws up as a dose of ‘back to reality’ should be in store.
Samford is 4-0 SU as a road favorite this year winning by 5, 8, 9, and 18. Samford is improved this year on the defensive side of the ball. They go from losing back to back close games against the top 2 teams in the conference to now being able to take out their frustrations on a VMI team that just won their ‘Super Bowl’. College Home Dogs that are coming off a win of a road underdog of 15 or more points are 5-13 SU and 5-11-2 ATS since 2007. This year, Citadel got drilled by 44 at home vs East Tennessee State.
Previous to their win against ETSU, VMI had lost their previous 3 games by 17, 18, and 9 points with all 3 teams putting up 88+ points.
Samford gets to the foul line at the highest rate in the conference and shoot free throws at the 2nd highest percentage. They have gotten to the line more than VMI the last 3 meetings. Take Samford as they should push the lead to double digits and catch VMI in a clear letdown spot.
Stephen Nover
Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +2½
No talking to reporters. Total focus on this game. That's what's been going on with the Pitt Panthers ever since they were buried at home by Louisville, 106-51, this past Tuesday in the worst home defeat in Atlantic Coast Conference history. The Panthers desperately need this home win as they go on the road for three straight games following this matchup with the first two games being at North Carolina and Duke. Fortunately for Pittsburgh they draw Clemson, which is at low ebb, too, losing and failing to cover in its last six games. The Tigers have surrendered 75 or more points in each of those defeats. The Panthers had two losses of 15 plus points last season when playing their next game at home and responded with victories in both of them. They have four seniors headed by Jamel Artis and Michael Young. I expect them to step up here as does their coach Kevin Stallings. Certainly the Panthers are capable having defeated 12th-ranked Virginia, Big Ten co-leader and 22nd-ranked Maryland and Marquette, which just upset top-ranked Villanova.
Art Aronson
Nuggets vs. Suns
Play: Suns -2½
These Western Conference cellar dwellers played on Thursday and the Nuggets scored the 127-120 victory at home. The Nuggets have also taken two straight on Phoenix, including a 120-114 win back on November 27th, 2016. Note that with just 1:47 left on Thursday, Nuggets’ star Nikola Jokic went down hard. First scans came back negative and he had a scheduled MRI done on Friday morning. The Serb finished with 29 points, 14 boards and eight assists before the injury. If he is given the “green light” to go in this one, we are not expecting the big man to be anywhere near at 100% normal capacity. Combined with the “revenge factor,” the SUNS are definitely worth a second look on Saturday night.
Zack Cimini
North Carolina vs. Miami-Florida
Pick: Miami-Florida
In the ACC, the Hurricanes style of play figures to be a big mismatch against the Tar Heels. Yet, each team in the ACC has shown to have it's moments and this figures to be one for the Tar Heels. Miami has the size defensively to thwart the Tar Heels. Controlling tempo and a home advantage will get the Hurricanes the cover here.
MMA OddsBreaker
Jeremy Kimball vs. Marcos de Lemia
Pick: Jeremy Kimball
The best thing Jeremy Kimball has going for him here is that his opponent Marcos Rogerio de Lima missed weight. If de Lima isn't in shape, that doesn't spell good things for a bout taking place in The Mile High City. Kimball is aggressive, has decent power and is pretty well-rounded despite making his UFC debut on short notice. De Lima has been caught in several submissions already in his UFC career and he doesn't have great conditioning either. If de Lima doesn't take Kimball out quickly, I like Kimball's chances.
LV Traders
Ohio State at Iowa
Pick: Iowa
After a tumultuous week, we closed with a winning Friday and have momentum on our side as we roll into a huge college basketball Saturday. The card is looking great today and we have action all day long! Let's do this. Your free play for Saturday is the Iowa Hawkeyes. Fran McCaffery's team is woefully young and has been far superior in Iowa City. They're tough to defend and knock down the shots at home. Ohio St. is a lousy shooting team and doesn't have it's typical athleticism to harass teams defensively. We like Iowa to out-shoot Ohio State and get the W.
Jim Feist
Ohio St at Iowa
Pick: Over
Ohio State doesn't bring its defense out on the road, off a loss at Michigan allowing 90 points. Ohio State is on an 8-1 run over the total and 11-5 over against a team with a winning straight up record. A very young Iowa team likes to run at home but they are not a strong defensive team. The Over is 8-3 in the the Hawkeyes last 11 games following a spread loss.