Free Picks for Saturday, March 11th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
ALCORN ST VS TEXAS SOUTHERN
PLAY: ALCORN ST
No number available on this game as I’m writing this, but I’m figuring that it shows at roughly -6. Regardless of what the price is, it’s one of the most peculiar conference title game setups you’ll see.
Texas Southern has already punched its ticket as the SWAC entry in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Tigers clinched the bid on Friday when Alcorn State knocked off Southern, rendering this title game meaningless as far as the Big Dance is concerned.
If that’s confusing, I’ll clear it up. Alcorn State is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to poor APR scores. I have no idea why the SWAC decided it was okay for the Braves to remain eligible for the conference tournament, but that’s not my concern.
So now we have a really bizarre scenario. Texas Southern can actually not show up for this game and they’re still going to the main event next week. Alcorn State will put the equipment away till next season regardless of what happens here.
I have to look at this as a situational advantage for the Braves. They can draw immense satisfaction from winning the conference tournament. I’m sure Texas Southern would also like to win, but one has to wonder about their focus when factoring in the circumstances.
The two regular season battles between these teams were each thriller. Texas Southern opened SWAC play back in early January by scoring a 67-65 win at Alcorn State. That one was close all the way. The rematch was only nine days ago, and that one went to overtime with the Tigers again prevailing.
It seems clear to me that while Texas Southern is the better team by a decent margin, the Braves can match up with them. Add in the unique scenario and I like the chances of the dog getting to the winner’s circle. Note I factored in the conditions when making my line on this game, as it actually power rates more like 6. In any case, I’ll be looking to take the points here with Alcorn State.
Ben Burns
Charlotte -8
These teams will meet again in less than two weeks, at Orlando. While the Magic may win that 3/22 contest, I don't like their chances here. The Hornets, much better in their own building, already hammered the Magic by 40 combined points, in the first two meetings. They've only played one home game since the middle of February and that resulted in a double-digit win over the Pacers. This marks the start of a 3-game homestand, with a trio of winnable games. The Hornets, currently 11th in the conference, know that a 3-0 sweep puts them back in the hunt for the 8th and final spot in the East. They also know they can't afford to squander opportunities like this one. Catching the Magic likely without Vucevic once again, look for the Hornets to take care of business.
Ben Burns
Yale +2.5
Harvard won both regular season meetings fairly convincingly. However, I believe the Bulldogs could well present a problem. Harvard checks in off back-to-back tough, potentially deflating, losses. Yale comes in full of positive momentum, off three straight victories. Don't be surprised if Yale's tougher non-conference schedule, which included games against the likes of Virginia, Pittsburgh, Washington and Vermont, pays dividends.
Ray Monohan
Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes
Play: Maple Leafs +101
The Maple Leafs are far more consistent than Carolina and they're a solid move here on Saturday. Toronto is just more threatening offensively. The Maple Leafs are averaging 3.03 goals per game and have plenty of youth on their side which gives them a lot of speed to play with.
Carolina has gone just 3-10 over their last 13, as they are really reeling at the moment.
Some trends to note. Road team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. At basically a PK price, the Maple Leafs are worth a chance, especially given how bad the Hurricanes have played lately.
Mike Anthony
Philadelphia vs. Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -11.5
The Clippers defense will stop the Sixers on too many possessions, and that isn't that hard when you're struggling with scoring, like Philly, as they are putting up only 102/ game - the Clippers frontcourt can cause a lot of contact in the paint - they aren't afraid of contact, and for the Sixers, this will be a problem. Chris Paul has been excellent with his shooting, in particular, and Paul will do it again. Philadelphia doesn't play with enough aggression, and the Clips gives a lot of switched and disguised off screen looks, which will be hard for the frontcourt of Philadelphia to deal with. Philadelphia haven't stopped anyone from scoring very well, especially in the last two weeks, in particular - this wont change here. L.A. Clippers win by 16 or more here.
MMA OddsBreaker
Alex Oliveira v Tim Means
Pick: Alex Oliveira +190
I pick Means to win but can't ignore the betting value Oliveira has at the current price. I can see this rematch playing out for three rounds, where I think the Brazilian could pull out a decision, but a late finish would not be surprising, either. At the current odds, I do believe we are looking at a dog or pass situation, and I am going to have to side with the dog here.
Jim Feist
Yale at Harvard
Pick: Under
Tourney time brings out tough defense, as does rivalry games. Here we have both and Harvard is 5-2 under the total run against winning teams. The Under is also 29-14 in the Crimson's last 43 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Both teams shoot less than 37% in league play. Yale is 8-3 under the total in neutral site games and when these rivals clash the under is 5-2.
Marc Lawrence
Warriors at Spurs
Pick: Spurs
Edges - Spurs: 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS versus unrested foes this season; and 6-1 ATS in this series when Golden state is unrested… Warriors: 11-24-2 ATS versus foe off a loss this season, including 1-8-1 ATS the last ten. With the Spurs off a SU favorite loss and the Warriors 0-7 ATS without rest adjacent foes off a double-digit loss, we recommend a 1* play on San Antonio.
Jimmy Moore
Harvard -2
Sometimes a team just owns another team and that is the case here with Harvard owning Yale. The Crimson spanked the Bulldogs in both regular season meetings this season and with this being a blood rivalry there is no way Harvard will take this one for granted. The Crimson ended the regular season with 2 SU losses so they will be extra motivated to get the job done here in the tournament. Take the Crimson to get this win and cover.
MIKE LUNDIN
Washington vs. Portland
Play: Portland -155
Super tough spot for the Washington Wizards as they forced a late rally in an OT win at Sacramento last night, and this will be their fourth game in five nights. The Portland Trail Blazers meanwhile have had a day off since beating Philly 114-108 in OT on Thursday, and they're coming into the game riding a four-game winning streak.
The Trail Blazers will be looking to avenge a 120-101 loss at Portland back in January and they've won nine of the past 11 home games against the Wizards while going 8-3 ATS.
Let's put a couple of units at work on the home team to win this game.
Dave Essler
Minnesota +3.5
Yesterday people were lining up to fade Michigan assuming perhaps that the plane/travel incident might catch up with them, or that Purdue was just better. That's actually today's issue. It's the Wolverines third game, the Gophers' second. Minnesota spends far more time at the FT line and has a far better defense.
Brad Wilton
Comp play for Saturday will be Princeton in their Ivy League playoff game against Pennsylvania.
That's right, we have our first Ivy League Tournament, and Princeton is listed as the # 1 seed and will play the # 4 seeded Penn Quakers. The game is being played on Penn's home court at the famed Palestra, and I suspect that is why the line is what I consider a little low.
The Tigers haven't lost since before Christmas, as they have run off 17 straight wins. Included are a pair of wins and covers over the Quakers this year. Overall, Princeton has bested Pennsylvania 7 straight times, and 8 of the last 10 overall.
Penn advanced to the inaugural Ivy Tourney by winning 6 of their last 8 games, but let's remember the Quakers are just 13-14 on the season.
Princeton has been the class of the Ivy's this year, and I look for the #1 seed to advance to Sunday's final with their 8th straight win over Penn, and their 3rd straight cover over the Quakers.
3* PRINCETON
TONY GEORGE
Michigan vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota +3.5
Well all storybook fairy tales come to an end. Michigan went from a plane crash, to playing in practice jersey's to winning 2 games in a row but Minnesota will not succumb to the Cinderella dream today.
Minnesota a damn good team, well coached, extremely disciplined and play great defense. They also run the pace and knock down free throws. Cannot ignore the run Michigan is on, but it ends today as I see a LIVE dog here and the hook over the 3 is worth the stretch for a free play.
TEDDY DAVIS
Arizona vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -2
I'm really high on both these schools come tournament time next week. Oregin just has to much fire power here for Zona to stop them. Oregon already rolled them by 27 in their only meeting this year. This just a bad matchup for Zona