JACK JONES
Pelicans vs. Hornets
Play: Hornets -2½
The Charlotte Hornets are fighting to get back in the playoff race. They have gone 5-3 in their last eight games overall. They rolled 121-81 at home over the Magic last night, and that blowout afforded their starters to rest late, which lessens the impact of this back-to-back situation.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played themselves out of the playoff discussion since the All-Star Break. The DeMarcus Cousins experiment isn't working so far. The Pelicans are just 2-6 since the break. They are 10-22 on the road this season.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Pelicans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Charlotte.
JIMMY BOYD
Duke vs. Notre Dame
Play: Duke - 3
This Blue Devils team is finally starting to play up to their potential. I know this is going to be their 4th game in 4 nights, but this team is playing with a ton of confidence and momentum that I believe is going to propel them to the ACC title. Keep in mind that Duke hasn't even played their best game yet, as they have trailed in the 2nd half by double-digits in each of their last two wins over Louisville and North Carolina.
I also don't think this is a great matchup for Notre Dame. Keep in mind they lost at home to Duke by 10 points earlier this season. The scary thing for the Irish is they held the Blue Devils to just 5 made 3-pointers. I look for Notre Dame to have a difficult time keeping the Blue Devils offense in check here.
TJ MASTERLINE
Yale vs. Harvard
Play: Harvard -2
Here are some statistics to back up our selection: Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Ivy League. Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Crimson are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Crimson are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Crimson are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Crimson are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Crimson are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 vs. Ivy League. Crimson are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 Saturday games. Crimson are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. Crimson are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Crimson are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Crimson are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Crimson are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite.
SPORTS WAGERS
Albany +10 over VERMONT
These two teams met on February 22nd in Burlington and the Catamounts of Vermont defeated the Great Danes by a score of 62-50. The game would be of special significance in that it would earn Vermont the top seed in the America East Conference Championship and home court advantage throughout the competition. So far Vermont has looked every bit as good as the team that boasts the #6 ranking in the College Insider Mid Major Top 25 Poll, as the Cats have rolled every team they have come across in this competition. Vermont is currently riding a 20-game winning streak and remain undefeated in America East play at 18-0. Very simply, this basketball team has all the makings to create pandemonium by their performance portfolio alone and you can be assured if they make it to the Big Dance, they will likely bode a tremendous amount of value as a projected #12 seed in the first round if they are pitted against a Power Conference opponent. However, first things first, as the Catamounts have to get by the Great Danes.
While the Catamounts may seem to have the America East in the bag with the festivities already taking place in Burlington, nothing is ever a certainty in conference tournaments. We have already seen top seeds in mid-major tournaments get upset in the most incredulous of manners and unexpected teams punch a ticket to their first ever March Madness. However, with home court advantage being a difference maker in conference tournaments taking place on campus sites (as #1 seeds have gone 4-0 in those scenarios so far this season), many believe Vermont is impervious to such an event on their own court. However, the Great Danes have an X-factor of their own and he will not even play one minute today. His name is Will Brown and he’s in his 16th year as head coach of this program.
Prior to Stony Brook winning the America East Championship in the 2015-16 season, the Great Danes had won the previous three America East Conference Tournaments and punched their ticket to the Big Dance on a regular basis. In the first two of Albany’s three consecutive America East title runs, the Great Danes hoisted the hardware on the road, winning the chip in hostile confines. The first of those two occasions came against Vermont in Burlington. While many of these events took place several years ago and currently we have two entirely different teams on the court, the point is that Will Brown knows how to prepare for a high stakes game like this and how to do so in less than accommodating circumstances. UVM’s 28 wins so far this season are a program record and the Catamounts swept all of the major year-end conference awards, as junior point guard Trae Bell-Haynes was player of the year and John Becker nabbed top coach.
Coach Brown is now playing the underdog card again and he’ll do so with inflated points coming our way. Brown has been a magician against Vermont in the postseason, as he has never lost a game to the Catamounts in five tries. Even though Albany lost twice to the Catamounts this season, it is worth noting that the two games against the Great Danes this season (60-49 at SEFCU Arena on Jan. 25 and 62-50 at Patrick) were the two lowest scoring games for Vermont during the league season. That absolutely gives the dog a sense of accomplishment against this heavy favorite as well as giving them confidence. A great defense against the Catamounts is not the Great Danes only hope here either. Albany has the best backcourt in the league in Joe Cremo and David Nichols and great backcourt play is one of the major reasons teams’ get upset in one and done scenarios. Give us major lumber with Albany’s backcourt, confidence and coach, throw in that all the pressure is on the chalk and it’s a bet we’re going to make every time.
Central Florida +8½ over SMU
SMU is in. The Mustangs went 28-4 during the regular season and also went a resonating 17-1 in conference play. SMU has also won 14 straight games with its last loss coming way back on the road in a two-point loss to tournament bound Cincinnati. In the rematch game, the Mustangs beat the Bearcats by nine. SMU is projected to be a #5 seed when the field is announced on Sunday. While we take nothing away from what the Mustangs have accomplished this season, we’re not big believers. Outside of Cincinnati and this UCF team, the American Conference was a group of beatable cupcakes all season long. Furthermore, the Mustangs rely too heavily on their starting five, as only Nevada and Arizona State have fewer bench minutes this year than SMU in the entire country.
The Mustangs success this year is based on a system that many teams have never seen before. Some experts call the Mustangs a group of position-less players. Coach Jim Jankovich has his players switching constantly and the opposition was often ill-prepared. Here’s where it gets interesting. East Carolina lost to SMU 86-46 on Feb 1. The second time they played, East Carolina lost by four points, 81-77. Tulane lost to SMU 80-64 in the first meeting and subsequently lost the rematch game by just five. Houston lost by 21 to the Mustangs in the first game and lost to them by just 10 in the second game. Even when Cincinnati played SMU the second time and lost by nine, 60-51, the Bearcats had a 10-point lead with 12 minutes left in that game and could not hit another basket the rest of the way. The Bearcats went ice-cold, which is something that could happen to any team. The points is that the second time was much tougher on SMU than the first. UCF and SMU played once this year and the Mustangs won by five. This is the rematch game only the stakes are higher for the dog.
UCF has one path to March Madness, which is to win this conference tournament otherwise they’ll be headed to the NIT’s. Every year there are a bunch of teams that get snubbed and that UCF isn’t even on the bubble is a major snub. The Knights are 21-10 overall but the lack of signature wins is their downfall. Still, the Knights have a win over Cinci and they came close to beating Villanova early in the year when they lost by 10 points but were only down five with eight minutes left to play. Central Florida plays great defense too so in a game with a total of 128, these points are much more valuable than a game with a standard total in the 140 to 150 range. The Knights possess all the traits of upset-minded teams. They have a big man in the middle (in this case a huge man in 7-foot-6 center Tacko Fall), they play outstanding defense and they possess strong three-point shooters. The Central Florida Knights have a chance to win this tournament and punch its ticket to The Big Dance so they are not going to leave anything on the table whatsoever. The Knights best effort gets them a win here so for all you parlay players, don’t forget to play this live pooch in a money-line parlay. That said, there is a ton of value in the points offered so that’s the way we’re attacking it. Big overlay.
Mid Tenn St -9 over Marshall
Marshall has had a nice run during this Conference USA tournament. The Thundering Herd made a big impression in the semi-finals with a 93-77 win over #2 seed Louisiana Tech, as a five-point pooch. The final score looks really impressive but a closer look shows us the way Marshall got the W was on the back of 14 first-half 3-point baskets. The Herd went on to set a record in the game by hitting 19 of 35 three point attempts, while holding LA Tech to just 5 of 23 from beyond the arc. Tech coach Eric Konkol said Marshall, “shot the ball as good as any team I've ever seen.” Expecting those three’s to fall again here against this juggernaut would be unreasonable to say the least. Aside from that, the Herd did not play a difficult opponent this entire season outside of playing these Blue Raiders twice and the Bearcats once. Marshall lost all three of those games and did not come in under this number in either one against the Blue Raiders. The Herd are getting way too much credit for its win yesterday but we’ll focus more on the entire picture which includes a 21-point loss to Old Dominion, a 15-point loss to Southern Miss, a 16-point loss to UAB and a 23-point loss to UTEP, a team that the Blue Raiders absolutely walloped yesterday.
The Blue Raiders were a -9½ point choice over UTEP yesterday and covered easily, 82-56. The Blue Raiders ended the year with a 29-4 record. One of its wins was a 71-48 shellacking over Vanderbilt, who possesses one of the best defenses in all of America. The Blue Raiders were on cruise control this entire season but when they get serious, as they did against Vandy and again yesterday against UTEP, look out. If they scored 71 on Vandy, they might put up 110 here against one of the nation’s worst defenses.
The fact that the Marshall beat Louisiana Tech yesterday works in our favor here because we get another beatable number with a favorite. The Blue Raiders rank nearly 100 slots higher in BPI this year than the team that busted your brackets in 2016 and they've amped up their qualities. They rebound better, they're playing slower while forcing more turnovers and they’re also hitting a higher percentage from both inside the arc and outside of it. Marshall should be getting 16 here and it would still be difficult to pull the trigger on them because they are not close to being in State’s class.
Wunderdog
Northwestern vs. Wisconsin
Pick: Northwestern +4.5
Northwestern is destined to be in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in its history after its 72-64 win over Maryland for its fourth cover in five games. Scotty Lindsey and Vic Law each scored 17 points as the Wildcats shot 55.3 percent and they improved to 19-11 ATS for the season. Northwestern won the first meeting 66-59 at Wisconsin and the Wildcats have covered the number four of their last five games against the Badgers, who have won two straight after losing five of six. Bronson Koenig scored 16 points and Ethan Happ added 14 points and 12 rebounds in Wisconsin's win over Indiana. Northwestern can go toe-to-toe with the Badgers defensively as the Wildcats are allowing only 40.1 percent shooting. Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS its last five games after a win. Play the points on Northwestern.
Micah Roberts
Nevada vs. Colorado St.
Play: Nevada -4.5
Two of the best cover teams in the nation square off and both have been on rolls lately. Nevada has gone 22-10-1 ATS this season and two of those covers came against Colorado State who has gone an impressive 18-8-1 ATS this season. Their last meeting was a week ago in Reno with Nevada winning 85-72 as 7-point favorites. Nevada is currently on an eight game win and cover streak. Despite fans south in the state usually 'hating' the team up north, with UNLV having one of its worst seasons we're all on board rooting for the Wolf Pack; the crowd will be in Nevada's favor and I laid the points.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Nevada Wolf Pack against the Colorado State Rams, in the Finals of the Mountain West tourney. The Pack put on an impressive offensive display the last two nights, beating Utah State on Thursday and knocking off No. 4 seed and defending tournament champion Fresno State yesterday with a second-half surge that completely dominating.
I said this yesterday, and will repeat myself: this is Nevada's tournament to lose.
After struggling through its worst first half of the season, scoring a mere 21 points on 23.3 percent shooting, the top-seeded Wolf Pack (27-6) responded with its most productive second half of the campaign, hitting 19 of 24 (79.2 percent) from the field en route to an 83-72 victory over Fresno State.
Nevada the No. 1 seed, and Colorado State is the No. 2 seed. So there is going to be a sense of pride in this one. The Wolf Pack will have no excuses here, as it will have to bring its best.
Nevada was bounced last year with virtually a lot of the same guys, including Cam Oliver, who has been solid in the first two wins. The mission is clear.
The Wolf Pack have had this tournament on its brain all season. There are so many components to this team winning this tournament, and it included knocking off the defending champion yesterday, and now taking out the No. 2 seed.
Colorado State is well coached under Larry Eustachy, and the Rams will make this one close. It'll be a 3- or 4-point game. But late free throws will give us the win and cover with this free play.
4* NEVADA
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Saturday is a repeat performance in the Mountain West Conference, as I'm taking the underdog and second-seeded Colorado State Rams, against the top-seeded Nevada Wolf Pack.
I told you I liked the Rams against the San Diego State Aztecs last night, telling you I was not sold on Steve Fisher's bunch, but was more impressed by Colorado State's Gian Clavell.
Though Nevada probably has the better overall talent, Clavell reminds me of former Wyoming star Josh T. Adams, who took over the tournament two years ago, and delivered the Cowboys the automatic berth into the dance. I think Clavell is a better talent than Adams, one that will end up in the NBA.
Clavell will be the best pure scorer on the floor tonight.
He scored 30 points Thursday night, in an 81-55 win over Air Force. Clavell topped the 30-point plateau for the third time this season, and fourth time in his career. Clavell, who averages 19.5 points per game, hit a blistering 62.5 percent (10 of 16) from the field, including 6 of 11 (54.5 percent) from the 3-point stripe. His game is tighter than the braids he sported last night.
Last night, he shook off Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Dakarai Allen, and sparked the Rams to a come-from-behind win with impressive moves to the basket, and that soft stroke from the outside.
This team is on a mission.
This is a program that has been through hell and back this season, with off-court distractions surrounding coach Larry Eustachy. But his players have rallied around him, and you could see this week, how much they want to be in this title game.
My free pick is Ram-tough!
4* COLORADO STATE
Jack Brayman
Going to play Duke as my free play for tonight, as the Blue Devils are relevant once again, after knocking off North Carolina last night.
Amazing.
Coach K is slowly making a run into the dance, and was somewhat shocking in last night's semifinal, and will now go for his 14th tournament title with the Devils.
Duke is a solid No. 2 seed right now. A win in this game, and the committee has to consider the Devils as a No. 1 seed tomorrow.
The No. 5-ranked Blue Devils defeated No. 12 Clemson, No. 4 Louisville and No. 1 North Carolina to get to this final game. No. 3 Notre Dame enjoyed a second-round bye before beating No. 6 Virginia and No. 2 Florida State.
Bottom line is Duke has knocked off two teams ranked in the top 10 the last two days, and once again looks like a bunch that can go deep into March with red-hot outside shooting, and a wealth of NBA-level talent.
Take the Devils tonight, as they're playing at an extremely high level.
1* DUKE
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Dallas vs Phoenix
Play: Dallas -6
The Mavericks have won 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 as they continue to make a playoff push. That said, even though this is a back to back spot, the fact that they are at home plus had 2 days off prior to this back to back set plus are highly motivated by making a run at the playoffs all adds up to mean great line value here. The Mavs are laying a reasonable number against a Phoenix team that has lost back to back games and 15 of their last 21. Also, the Suns are 9-20 (SU and ATS) the last 3 seasons combined when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. That said, this is not an easy road spot for Phoenix and the Suns are an ugly 4-11 ATS against Southwest Division opponents this season. Dallas is a fantastic 11-1 SU (and 10-2 ATS) as a favorite this season. Also, the Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams that allow an average of 106 points or more per game.
JOHN MARTIN
76ers vs. Clippers
Play: 76ers +13.5
The Philadelphia 76ers continue to get no respect from the books as 13.5-point underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers this afternoon. All they've done all season is cover spreads at a tremendous rate, including a 10-3 ATS run in their last 13 games overall. The Clippers are just 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS since the All-Star Break and shouldn't be this heavily favored today. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven against a team with a winning record. Philly is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
BRANDON LEE
Wolves vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -2
Milwaukee is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Wolves. Both of these teams will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but it will be much easier for the Bucks to bounce back than Minnesota. Milwaukee didn't have to travel, as they hosted and beat the Pacers 99-85 last night. As for the Wolves, they hosted the Warriors and that comes after games against the Jazz, Spurs and Clippers. This is the definition of a flat spot for Minnesota and I think this one could end up being a bit of a blowout.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas
Play: Arkansas +4
With 14 losses this contest in more meaningful for Vanderbilt then it is for the 24 win Razorbacks. The Commodores have won their last three and are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall and that is impressive. These two clubs split the season series each winning on the others court with the latest meetings a 72-59 Vandy win. Off their third straight win over Florida (in overtime) the Commodores will get run down late. Arkansas' balanced attack will get it done as they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight SEC games.
DAVE PRICE
Northwestern vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -4½
The Wisconsin Badgers went through a rough patch late in the season where they lost five out of six games. But its seems to have awoken them. They are still 24-8 on the season, and they are coming off two of their most complete performances of the season. The beat Minnesota 66-49 as 8-point favorites, and followed that up with a 70-60 win over Indiana as 5-point favorites in their first game of this tournament. Northwestern has already played two Big Ten tournament games, putting them at a disadvantage as this will be their 3rd game in 3 days. The Badgers will also be hungry to avenge a 66-59 upset loss to the Wildcats in their lone meeting this season. The Badgers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
ROB VINCILETTI
Atlanta vs Memphis
Play: Memphis -5
The Grizzlies will look to bounce back from a pair of home losses and they catch the Hawks with no rest off a home game last night. The Hawks were 18-8 ats of late and All road teams in Memphis off a home game are 8-38 long term. Rested home teams with a total of 200 or higher have lost once in 23 seasons if they failed to cover by 14+ points as a home favorite, scored 90 or more and allowed 110 or more vs a team that was a home favorite of 4 or less with no rest. Look for the Grizzlies to get it done.