DAVE COKIN
WARRIORS VS. SPURS
PLAY: WARRIORS +3.5
I don’t need to waste time and space analyzing these teams. If you’re reading this piece, you already know all about the Warriors and Spurs and you already know what’s on the line tonight.
So let’s cut right to the nuts and bolts. The Warriors are an absolutely amazing team, and as much as they want to break that Chicago Bulls season win record, I’m equally convinced they would like nothing better than to ruin the Spurs record run at home.
Golden State had to play on Friday evening. Thus, there’s a school of thought that will say the rest factor that favors San Antonio will be the key tonight. I wouldn’t count on it. Neither of these teams has been bothered in the least by playing back to back. Between the Warriors and Spurs, they’re 30-1 playing without rest, which is downright beyond belief.
My reasoning here is pretty simple. I think Golden State is the better team, I absolutely think they’ll be insulted at being underdogs tonight and I get to to therefore take those points. Remember the last time GS was a dog? If not, just ask any Cleveland Cavaliers fan. I’m getting more than one possession with the Warriors? Mark me down for Golden State and the points.
Stephen Nover
Thunder -3
Oklahoma City is at least one level higher than Indiana, has revenge motivation and is playing well.
The Thunder are coming on winning their last three games - beating Portland at home by 34 points, taking out the Celtics in Boston by 21 and easing past the 76ers by 14 last night in which Serge Ibaka was rested and none of the starters had to log major minutes.
This is a game of stars. The Thunder have three of them: Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Ibaka. The Pacers have Paul George and he's on a cold streak making just 34.5 percent of his shots from the floor during the last three games.
The Thunder are the top rebounding team in the NBA. The Pacers have lost the rebounding battle in each of their last three games. They might be without center Ian Mahinmi, too. He missed the Pacers' last game two nights ago with a sore back. Indiana might be thin in the backcourt also as Ty Lawson is questionable with a sore ankle.
This is a revenge spot for the Thunder from a month ago when the Pacers outscored them by 10 points during the final three minutes to pull out a 101-98 win in Oklahoma City. Indiana, which ranks 19th in 3-point percentage at 34.6 percent, hit 41 percent of their 3-pointers in that game while the Thunder shot 19 percent from 3-point range missing 19 of 26 from beyond the arc. On the season, the Thunder make 35 percent of their 3-pointers.
Indiana often struggles against Western Conference foes failing to cover in 19 of its last 28 games against them going 2-7 ATS in its past nine games versus Northwest Division opponents.
Tony George
Wichita State vs. Miami
Play: Wichita St -2½
WOW. A Play in team now favored in Round 2 and a mid major to boot against a might ACC team. How could this be possible. Oddsmakers are GIVING you the side play in this game by making the Shockers a favorite. They first destroyed Vandy and then dismantled Arizona in this tourney. They lost on a buzzer beater to a good Northern Iowa team in their conference semi finals to get to "play-in" status. This team is no joke, talented, and relentless on defense and are very well coached.
Last year Wichita was a public darling but this year the undefeated streak headed into the tourney is long forgotten, but ask yourself what wins games in March? GOOD GUARD PLAY - and Wichita St has 2 veteran, experienced, talented and big shot making studs in Baker and VanVleet and they will dominate the backcourt play again against the Hurricanes.
Wichita allowed 55 ppg their last 5 games and rendered a good Zona team useless on offense. They shut down Vandy as well. Defense and good guard play wins games in March, proven fact and with that in mind while Miami has a couple of decentr guards, and are battle tested in the ACC, I like the Shockers to advance to the Sweet 16 with vastly superior guard play, defensive hustle and good coaching. Dare we say Wichita State is a Cinderella?
Scott Spreitzer
Thunder vs. Pacers
Play: Thunder -3
OKC looks to exact some revenge for a 101-98 loss a month ago. OKC led by nine points at the end of the third quarter and looked to be in relative control, up 91-84 with three minutes to go in regulation. But Indiana outscored the Thunder, 17-7 over the final 2+ minutes. OKC made just 5 of 26 3-pointers that night and attempted just 10 FTs. The loss came during a 2-6 SU stretch when, in some games, the Thunder would build decent-sized leads, only to stumble down the stretch, landing in the loss column. They'll be focused with their minds set to atone for the loss. Kevin Durant and company are still the second highest scoring team in the NBA and rank third in FG percentage. They haven't forgotten about the defensive end, where they rank 6th in FG percentage allowed and 8th in 3-point defense. Indiana enters having covered just two of their last eight home games and they're 9-19 ATS in their last 28 against Western Conference opposition.
Rob Vinciletti
Nuggets vs. Hornets
Play: Under 217½
On Saturday the NBA Comp play is on the Under in the Denver at Charlotte game at 6:05 eastern. The total seems a big high here at 7217+ points. These two have played under in 9 of the last 10 meetings. Denver has stayed under in 7 of the last 9 off 3+ losses while the Hornets have played under in 8 of 9 vs North West Division teams. Home favorites like Charlotte with 1 day of rest that scored 100 or more in a road dog win have played under every time since 199 vs an opponent that lost to the spread by 10 or more as a road dog of 5 or more and scored 90+ points. Look for this game to stay under the total.
Ricky Tran
Clippers vs. Grizzlies
Play: Clippers -10½
The shorthanded Grizzlies will have their work cut out for them tonight against the Clippers. The Clippers are off a 122-106 stomping of the Rockets and they're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Grizzlies have lost four straight and has scored 86 or fewer points three times in that span. Their injury list is getting ridicilous and they'll be without power forward Zach Randolph (knee), point guard Mike Conley (Achilles) and center Marc Gasol (foot) among others. Memphis is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and not likely to cover the spread tonight.
Sam Martin
Providence vs. North Carolina
Play: Providence +9½
Full confidence in North Carolina winning this game outright against Providence, but we don't believe they'll win by a double-digit margin. Providence proved themselves with a tough-fought win against USC despite being on the wrong end of a 54% to 40% shooting discrepancy, but even more importantly the Tar Heels looked very vulnerable after a tight first-half against #16 seed Florida Gulf Coast.
North Carolina is better than average on both ends of the floor, but the lack of truly dominant teams across College Basketball has them overrated as a #1 seed. We're not suggesting the Tar Heels weren't worthy of being a #1 seed this year, but this squad certainly wouldn't be a #1 seed in different years. Tar Heels up-tempo game pace won't bother Providence, who also prefers to go a little faster, and this team is playing with confidence after going 5-1 both straight up and ATS in their last six games overall. Providence is 10-2 ATS as an underdog on a neutral court and they battle throughout this one as they lose outright, but stay within this generous number.
Jim Feist
Los Angeles vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis +10
Memphis prefers a slower pace with all their injuries and the Clippers won't mind, with a game at New Orleans on deck tomorrow. This is the fourth road game of a six game trip and the Clippers are 1-5 ATS following a straight up win. Memphis is home, where they are on a 16-6 ATS run. The Grizzlies are also 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss, plus 43-21 ATS when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. And the Clippers are 2-11 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Cajun Sports
Houston Rockets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -7
The Atlanta Hawks play host to the Houston Rockets on Saturday night in the ATL. The red-hot Hawks get the call as our NBA Complimentary Play of the Day. The Hawks have done a great job using momentum. We know that the Hawks coming off three consecutive straight up and against the spread victories and now play at home are 48-21 ATS. If they are installed as a home favorite their record is 45-20 ATS. If Atlanta is coming off three straight ATS victories as favorites and now play at home installed as a favorite they are 20-5 against the spread in this situation. Finally we want to Play ON NBA home teams with rest facing an opponent playing with no rest but at least two days rest on deck, 108-72 ATS for sixty percent winners. Lay the chalk with Atlanta on Saturday night.
Jesse Schule
Leicester City vs. Crystal Palace
Pick: Leicester City
The Foxes are in the driver's seat in the English Premier League title race, and they come into Saturday's match versus Crystal Palace as winners of seven of their last 10 matches. The bookmakers still don't give them much credit, and we get a far better price on Leicester than we would get if we wanted to back any of the other top clubs in the league. Playing away from Kings Power Stadium hasn't slowed down the Foxes, who have as many wins on the road (9) as they do at home. Crystal Palace has lost five straight home games, and has been out-scored 7-4 while losing two of it's last three league games. A draw would be a great result for the home team here, but I think Palace will be lucky to avoid another loss.
MMA OddsBreaker
Frank Mir by submission
Frank Mir is one of the greatest heavyweight submission artists of all time. He'll be stepping into the Octagon opposite Mark Hunt, one of the most susceptable heavyweights of all time to submissions. Hunt has been submitted a whopping six times in his professional mixed martial arts career, and if Mir can get him on the canvas, I expect it'll be seven. Mir is an intelligent fighter and he understands that the ground is his best path to victory so if he wins, the most likely route is going to be tapout. At the current betting odds, I think he has a tremendous opportunity to pull it out.
Will Rogers
Connecticut vs. Kansas
Pick: Kansas
Historically, March has been very good to Will "The Coach" Rogers. Will closed out the conference tournaments a winner and now he's absolutely rolling with his NCAA tournament plays, going 4-1-1 in the first round. Expect a HUGE Saturday, as Rogers has hit his stride!
The Kansas Jayhawks are the #1 ranked team in the country. They've won 15 games in a row, and they crushed their first round opponent Austin Peavy by a whopping 26 points. The Big12 champs are firing on all cylinders, and I don't expect them to have any trouble with Connecticut.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - Kansas has won five of it's last six games by a double-digit margin, and the Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. They've scored an average of 82.2 points on 49.8 percent shooting at neutral sites this season.
2. Perry Ellis - The senior forward has scored 20+ points in four of his last five games, and he totaled 21 on 8-of-12 shooting in the win over Austin Peavy. "He's a rock. He's a guy that we look to score when we're struggling," said coach Bill Self. "He certainly plays a much bigger role than what I think a lot of people give him credit for nationally."
3. X-Factor - The Jayhawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
SPORTS WAGERS
Gonzaga -110 over Utah
Utah is one of two remaining teams hailing from a conference that we’ve been attacking all weekend and will continue to attack. California, USC, Colorado, Oregon State and Arizona have all exited the Men’s Tournament in the first round, further showcasing how weak the Pac-12 conference truly is. Some may proclaim the glory of Utah for winning their first round match-up. However, this achievement was acquired against Fresno State, a team that slithered by top dog San Diego State to sneak through the backdoor into March Madness as a 14 seed. Beating up Fresno State is no crowning achievement. Utah surged into the Pac-12 Championship Game on a nine-game winning streak but they were routed by the crowned champion Oregon, 88-57. In spite of the decimation they endured, Utah was awarded a #3 seed and granted a mulligan in the first round of the tournament against a weaker mid-major opponent. The Utes won six games this season by at least 30 points and eight by at least 20. The lost only eight, so that's not bad, right? Well, six of their eight losses were by double-digits. Oregon, a 1 seed, beat them three times -- by 31, 18, and 10. Miami, a fellow 3 seed, beat them by 24. Wichita State, who advanced as an 11 seed, beat them by 17, and Cal, a 4 seed, bested them by 13. The yo-yoing of scores really plants them as an inconsistent squad, and the inability to avoid big losses against good schools plagued them. Now, the Utes will have to step their game up against the West Coast Conference Champion Gonzaga Bulldogs who just ousted Big East Champion Seton Hall with ease, 68-52.
The Zags have been on a roll, as they have won six in a row and seven of their last eight, blowing by the opposition in route to their tournament bid. However, this year is a bit different for the Zags, as they normally enter with large expectations, inundated with hype and attention. This Gonzaga team enters as a conference champion but has still fallen back comfortably into an 11 seed, as it now gets to play the role of the hunter as opposed to the hunted. The Zags next target in their crosshairs is this Utah team. Sure, Utah may be 9-1 in their last 10, but that one loss came in the most critical game of the postseason. Previous to this, the Utes took care of the cream of the Pac-12 crop, including California, Arizona and Colorado. However, the first two days of this event reveals that beating those teams is not saying much. Now the Running Utes will have a run-in with a March Madness institution who looks to continue its campaign to shock the world, slaying top seeds throughout.
With Michigan State falling to Middle Tennessee State, the Midwest Region has opened up. Gonzaga knows it can finally live up to the promise forecasted around them in years past by making a push when it is least expected, as the Bulldogs have a clear trajectory to the Elite 8 if they can get by Utah. The Zags have one of the best defenses in the country when it comes to defending opponent field goals. They boast 24th ranked numbers in that capacity and allow opponents to hit just 29.4% of their field goals. This is bad news for the Utes, who like many teams from their constituency, live and die by a methodical and efficient offense. Gonzaga is statistically one of the most balanced teams in the tournament bracket. In the Mark Few era, Gonzaga has made it past the Round of 64 all but three times in 17 years, having reached the Sweet 16 on five separate occasions, including an appearance in the Elite Eight a year ago. The Zags still managed to complete the season as the ninth most efficient offense and 27th most efficient defense in the land. Gonzaga's pretty much a household name nowadays, and maybe we shouldn't even count them as a mid-major at this point, but people are more than likely sleeping on the Bulldogs this year. We’re not.
Wichita State -2 over Miami
Wichita State has showed why they have the full potential to slay giants. Focusing on their defensive-oriented approach, Wichita State was able to put the clamps down on Arizona in the first round by defeating the Wildcats, 65–55. That was a flattering score to Arizona, as the Shockers were up by 20 and were never threatened. Wichita brings to the court the nation’s best scoring defense. On average, teams only score just under 59 points per game against this ferocious squad and shoot 38.3% from the field, which also earns Wichita State a top-three ranking in that department. The Shockers live and breathe defense, they shut down the three, as opponents only hit 31.9% from downtown and they also dominate the boards defensively, as they are ranked 14th in the country in that capacity. Despite sporting a marginal offensive attack, this “wolf pack” defense has propelled Wichita State to win 26 games this year. Wichita State has now knocked off Vanderbilt and Arizona, two teams that analysts said had the potential to make life miserable for some. Wichita State remains undervalued because they’re an 11 seed that had to play their way into this tournament by winning that aforementioned play-in game against Vandy. The Shockers came in to this affair “free-rolling” with less pressure and focus on them in comparison to previous years. There is no 34-0 record to defend, nor are they on many analysts’ radar with Kansas, Maryland and Villanova lurking in their bracket.
Miami fits the blueprint to be the Shockers’ third victim. Miami struggled mightily against Buffalo in their first round matchup. They are 7-7 in the tournament all-time and have never won more than two games in any tournament appearance. Just like many teams we saw exit early in this tournament, Miami is virtually unstoppable at home but struggles when they are not in their own backyard. Miami is 9-6 away from Coral Gables and now they’re facing a team with more tournament experience than they have. The Hurricanes have a very potent offense that has carried them to a 25-7 record in a tough ACC Conference. Their defense isn't their specialty by any means, but it was just good enough to not lose them any games while their offense did the damage. That doesn’t work against Wichita State because they are going to have to hit a high percentage of their shots to take down this defensive beast. The Shockers delight at the chance to shut down any team’s offense, as they are the most woefully misinterpreted and under-seeded team in recent NCAA tournament history. While we absolutely respect the Hurricanes, a true top-20 team without doubt, we’ll go with the mantra that a great defense almost always emerges when playing a team that focuses more on offense. Wichita State can overcome a poor shooting day while the Hurricanes cannot.
UConn +8 over Kansas
The tournament’s top team, Kansas cruised past Austin Peay in their first round match and covered a massive spread as well. Much of the public opted in on the #16 seed Governors, pushing what appeared to be an inflated number down a point. Now, Kansas, the team that has yet to lose a game since January 25th is highly favored in this round-of-32 matchup. Despite the lower seeding, the Connecticut Huskies are a household name. UConn won March Madness in 2014 as a 7-seed and shocked the world. They did the same in 2011 too. The Huskies were under the stewardship of current Head Coach Kevin Ollie when the men from Storrs put together their two storied runs. Now, Ollie has brought the Huskies back to the Big Dance as The American Conference Champion after having their post-season prospects nearly placed on life-support. UConn persevered against Cincinnati in a triple overtime classic in the American Conference quarterfinals. A miraculous half-court equalizer propelled this club into the next round where they would dispel a demon that haunted UConn all season long, Temple. The momentum would continue to carry the Huskies all the way toward a conference championship and number 8 seed. On Thursday, UConn found themselves down by 9 points at half time against #9 seed Colorado. The Huskies would erase the deficit and defeat the Buffaloes 74-67 with guard Rodney Purvis leading the way. What makes UConn dangerous is they know how to deal with games of this magnitude. They know how to win in these environs and they show no timidity when adversity strikes. The Huskies find ways to win when the chips are down and their coach thrives in making the right adjustments this time of year.
With all the accolades and passion providing the wind at their sails, the Jayhawks has been in this situation before and they have found ways to compromise their endeavors. The last team to beat Kansas was Iowa State when Rock-Chalk was away from Lawrence. Since then, Kansas has mangled the Big 12 and routinely knocked off teams like Baylor, Oklahoma and West Virginia. However, from what we have seen from the performance portfolio of these varying monsters, they were all a tad overrated. The bottom line is this, Kansas makes a living off of beating up on the Kansas States, Texas Techs, TCUs and Oklahoma States of the world. Combine that with some home wins against a #2 seed (OU) whose offense continues to sputter and a #3 and #5 seed sent packing in the first round of this tournament in spite of being heavily endorsed and favored, and the resume of Kansas does not sparkle as much as it used to. Sure, it is impressive to win every game for nearly two months straight and it is a hallmark of dominance but this scenario is entirely different, as Kansas is playing a team they never met before. No assumptions can be made here. The Jayhawks are facing a team that is historically better in this tournament that knows how to beat top-tier opposition. Let’s not forget that Kansas lost three times in five games earlier in the year when they had to face foes for the first time before making adjustments. The Huskies are riding high entering the round-of-32 again. We much prefer a team that was battle tested in the first game than a team like Kansas that didn’t break a sweat. The Huskies defense is what can propel them through the tournament. That defense ranks in the top-tier among college teams in defensive efficiency and we’re suggesting they can hang around all game and perhaps even pull of the upset.
Brandon Lee
Iowa State -6
I believe this is a great spot to fade Arkansas-Little Rock off their improbable upset over Purdue in the first round. The Trojans somehow managed to erase a 13-point deficit in the final 3:33 of regulation, before eventually winning 85-83 in double-overtime. I just don't see them being able to bounce back both emotionally or physically against the Cyclones. The Trojans had 3 different players play 40+ minutes. One day of rest playing in the thin air of Denver will be too much to overcome, especially against the fast-pace attack of Iowa State. Cyclones simply aren't getting enough respect here and wouldn't be shocked if they ran away with this one early.
Jack Jones
Gonzaga / Utah Under 140
This is strength vs. strength today between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Utah Utes. These two teams offer some of the best post play in the country, and it will be a great matchup today between Utah's Jakob Poeltl and Kyle Kuzma up against Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis.
Because both teams like to run their offense through the post, this is going to be more of a slow-it-down game. Both teams are going to be able to defend that post offense very well and will make life difficult for the opposition. Both teams have below-average guard play in my opinion.
Gonzaga is 9-2 UNDER in non-conference games this season. Gonzaga is 11-4 UNDER vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season. Utah is 9-0 UNDER vs. teams who outscore opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus game s over the last three years. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.