Tony Karpinski
Miami +2½
I see some major edges here with the quick guard play on the Hurricanes: The Shockers are 3-10 ATS off a win of 8 or more points versus .500 or greater foes off a win this season, including 1-7 ATS as favorites of 13 or less points.Look for the Miami defense to put the clamps down on this tired Wichita St team who is playing their 4th game in 7 days.
Jimmy Boyd
Virginia -7½
The Cavaliers made easy work of Hampton on Thursday, cruising to a 81-45 win. The comfortable margin allowed Virginia to limit their starters minutes, which is huge when facing a quick turnaround like we have here with Butler. Even more important, is Butler isn't a team that I think can handle the defensive pressure of the Cavaliers. The Bulldogs are a team that wants to get out and outscore the opposition. I don't think that's a good recipe for success against this Virginia team.
Butler ended up beating Texas Tech by 10, but that game could have went either way. The Bulldogs only led by 5-points with less than 4 minutes to play. When Butler has lost this year, most of the defeats have come by a wide margin. In fact, 7 of their 10 losses were by 8 or more points. Virginia is definitely a team that is accustomed to winning by double-digits and I expect them to do just that.
Cavaliers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against a teams who are outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game and have won these on average by 9.5 ppg. Virginia is also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 away from home after covering 3 of their last 4.
Dave Price
Butler +7½
The Butler Bulldogs have been the Giant Slayers for years. They have that potential again in this NCAA Tournament, and I look for them to give Virginia a run for its money Saturday. The Bulldogs made easy work of Texas Tech in a 71-61 victory as 3.5-point favorites in the first round. Virginia also cruised to an 81-45 win over Hampton, but I believe that blowout has it overvalued here. This Butler team is tough to defend because they shoot the 3 ball so well, and they have 3 players who can beat you. Virginia's pack-line defense that forces outside shots will really be tested in this one. Butler makes 39.1% from 3-point range this season. Kellen Dunham (16.5 ppg, 43.4% 3-pointers) and Kelan Martin (16.0 ppg, 38.3% 3-pointers) will be a handful for Virginia, while Roosevelt Jones (13.7 ppg, 4.8 apg) penetrates the defense and finds open shots for his teammates. The Bulldogs are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games.
Marc Lawrence
Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Utah Jazz
Edges -Jazz: 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS on weekends this season, including 7-1 SUATS off a win; and 3-0 ATS on on-conference games off BB SUATS wins this season. Bulls: 0-4 ATS in this series. With Chicago off a 24-point revenge win over Brooklyn, we recommend a 1* play on Utah.
Bob Balfe
Duke -6.5
A battle between two schools who love to pop the collar of their tucked in polo shirts. Yale had a nice upset the other night while Duke did just enough to get by. Yale’s Makai Mason does not look like a basketball player, but he is deadly. Neither team have deep benches, but I think that hurts Yale more because Duke has the ability to get teams in foul trouble. Duke obviously has more talent and should win in the paint. Coach K knows that if he can game plan to slow down Mason that they should have no trouble advancing. Yale had a great run, but talent only runs so deep. Take Duke.
Butler +7.5
Virginia is in for surprise tonight as they are facing a Butler team that is one of the strongest teams physically in the tournament. Butler can rebound and they can score. This is a team that is on a mission on and off the court as they have dealt with a lot of heartache with some deaths of family and an ex player in their program. Teams like this are dangerous and Virginia as good as they are only gets so many possessions per game in the style that they play. I like the points here and the ML at +285. Take Butler.
Kentucky -3
This should be a fast paced entertaining game, but for me it comes down to Kentucky having the better athletes and taking advantage of a Big 10 team that is predictable in their offense. If Kentucky can slow up Ferrell they should win this basketball game. This game is going to come down to pure athletic ability which favors Kentucky. We have a final four atmosphere in the round of 32. Look for Unis and Murray to shine tonight. Take Kentucky
Iowa State -6.5
Iowa State is a team that was upset last year by UAB in the opening round. Little Rock certainly has the talent to win this game, but I don’t think they are going to be able to overcome the firepower the Cyclones have and Iowa State can look back at last years upset as motivation for this game. Little Rock did not look that great against Purdue until they caught fire and Purdue blew the game at the end. You got to hand it to Little Rock for finishing down the stretch, but I believe they will be out of it when the stretch comes in this one. Take Iowa State.
Steve Merril
Yale +6.5
Yale has played exceptional basketball this season. The Bulldogs come into this game with a 23-6 record after opening the season at just 5-5. That means Yale is 18-1 over their last 19 games, and to their credit, ten of those games were on the road. The Bulldogs are extremely well coached, and they play a perfect half-court style of basketball that is conducive to NCAA tournament success. Yale controlled Baylor from start to finish on Thursday, and we expect a similar performance this afternoon against Duke. Yale has held 19 of their last 23 opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time. Overall, the Bulldogs are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 40.9% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land. Their defense is tremendous by efficiency metrics as they only give up 0.95 points per possession. Yale also has a terrific offense that averages 74.6 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from three-point land.
Duke beat NC-Wilmington 93-85 on Thursday afternoon. The Blue Devils shot 53.7% (29-54) from the field, and they got to the free throw line a whopping 43 times. Despite that, they could only beat an inferior team by 8 points. That's not impressive at all, and it shows that Duke is a vulnerable team. The Blue Devils have limited depth, and they rarely play more than six guys on a consistent basis. Duke always struggles when forced into half-court basketball, and that will be the case this afternoon. The Blue Devils went just 1-6 SU when held to less than 70 points this season; they are 0-7 ATS when held to less than 70 points based on the posted spread as their lone win came by a single point. This game will be close throughout, so we'll take the points with Yale on Saturday afternoon.
Harry Bondi
UTAH (+1) over Gonzaga
The Bulldogs are a fine team and we have a ton of respect for the program Mark Few has built in the pacific northwest. Bulldogs destroyed Seton Hall in the first round, we had them as part of our 10-1 week, but they caught the Pirates on their worst shooting night of the year! Gonzaga is going to have match up problems with Utah's 7 ft 2 inch center Jakob Poeltl and while Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis are nice players for the Zags, Utah has lost just 1 game in the last 2 months and it was to #1 seed Oregon and we don't see them losing today!
Bruce Marshall
New Hampshire +6
One of the best first-round efforts in the CIT was New Hampshire slowing down go-go Fairfield and running away from the host Stags in a surprise result. The Wildcats' 6-6 soph F Tanner Leissner (16 ppg) continued his late-season assault with help from jr. H Jaleen Smith (22 vs. Fairfield) as UNH won for the 12th time in its last 16 games. Cliff Ellis' Coastal Carolina has also been on the ascent and has won 11 of 14 after outlasting troubled Mercer in the opening round, though will need G Shivaughn Wiggins to rediscover some of his late-season form (19 ppg over last eight prior to the CIT) and not replicate the subpar 2 of 9 FG shooting that almost cost the Chants deeply in their opening-round escape. Regional sources say not much separating these squads so the handful of buckets received by the Wildcats could come in handy.
SPORTS WAGERS
Carolina +160 over MINNESOTA
OT included. Our attack on the wildly average team from The State of Hockey continues today. Nothing about the Wild really stands out other than their ability to continually underachieve. The Wild have made some big front office decisions the last few seasons and it hasn't really paid off, unless you count two straight second round playoff exits success, but we don’t. Minnesota threw big money at Zach Parise and in his last game out against his former team, the Devils, the Wild were beat 7-4 as a -150 road favorite. Starter Devin Dubnyk was chased after allowing three goals on eight shots for an impressive .625 save percentage. Minnesota has trouble spots all over the ice. In net, they are another team that gave way too much money to a very average goaltender. “Dubes” got on a hot run and took the Wild to the playoffs but now they're stuck with him after locking him up for six years last summer. Dubnyk is more likely to be selling cars than keeping the crease come the end of that deal. For a team that's 1-3-1 in their last five games, it's absurd the Wild are priced in this range. It's like they're the '87 Oilers. In addition to the Wilds' overwhelming mediocrity, they are coming home after an East Coast road trip, which is another angle we love to fade. The Wild figure to be in for a tough afternoon against the always hard- working Hurricanes.
We must play this game. Not only do we get to fade the Wild but we get to back one of our favorite up and comers in the Eastern Conference. There's so much to like about these ‘Canes and it all starts with the back end. This group of defensemen are grossly underrated and truly one of the best units in the league. When they get a solid start between the pipes, the ‘Canes have a great chance to win. They are usually taking back an inflated price because nobody gives a crap about them and less watch folks them play. It looked like the Hurricanes gave up on the season at the trade deadline but they're actually playing some of their best hockey after dropping those big contracts. They've played well in seven straight since March 1st and have points in six of those games. Once again the Wild are the biggest overlay on the board and we're thrilled to be taking back another big price against them here. SIA has this game at +160 but the rest of the books have it around +145. Take the best price obviously, as they all come recommended.
More later
Alex Smart
Thunder vs. Pacers
Play: Thunder -3½
The visiting Thunder look for their fourth straight victory Saturday night as they play with revenge for last month's loss to the indiana Pacers. The difference maker tonight in this matchup will come via rebounding where , as the Thunder lead the league with a 8.4 rebound margin. Meanwhile, the Pacers have been rebounded in three straight games, while losing two of them. Look for more solid work on the glass by the Thunder in a win and cover as short road chalk. Pacers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Northwest.Pacers are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 vs. Western Conference.Pacers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
John Ryan
Yale +6
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Yale will win the game.Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 3 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points While the Bulldogs don't have a starter over 6-foot-8, they managed to outrebound a bigger Baylor front court in their first-round win. Coach Jones said the first drill they do in every practice is a rebounding drill. Yale outrebounds opponents on average by 10.8 per game. ''It's part of our DNA,'' Jones said. ''If you were to interview any one of my guys and you asked them what is our principle on our team, they're going to tell you that we really play hard defensively, we rebound the ball, and we share it.'' Duke has a miserable defense period and Yale is an experienced team that can fully exploit that weakness.
Chase Diamond
Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State -6
This game features the 30-4 Little Rock versus the 22-11 Iowa State. Fairy tale win on Friday will quickly become a nightmare as Iowa State will take apart Little Rock today. 2 over times it took Arkansas to get the win and that is a very emotional and exhausting game. I believe Iowa State comes in fresher and ready to win and win big. This is a very bad spot for Arkansas as teams off an overtime Tourney win are just 4-24 ATS when priced from -3 to +10. That my friends is big winning info. The public well they are close to 50/50 on this game. I believe there is only one clear cut winner and that is Iowa State minus the points here.
Ray Monohan
San Jose at New York
Play: New York +121
The Rangers head into San Jose on Saturday and the visitors from New York hold the value here.
New York is a better team overall and situationally this is a solid spot for them. The Rangers have gone 17-15-3-2 on the road this year, which isn't bad by any means.
While San Jose is one of the best road teams in the NHL, they haven't played great at home. The Sharks have gone 14-15-1-2 at home and they've allowed nearly 3 goals per home game. This team lacksdefensive presence and really fails to protect their net.
Some trends to consider. Rangers are 16-6 in their last 22 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Rangers are 18-7 in their last 25 vs. Pacific. Expect the Rangers to come out firing here as they hold a lot of value at plus money as the better team.
Chris Jordan
Everybody expects Duke to find success this time of the year.
When it comes to Yale, they're thinking about other things.
Usually.
Today, the Bulldogs are going to give Duke a whole new something to think about, like what it's like to lose to an Ivy League team.
The defending champion and West Region fourth seeded Blue Devils face a Yale team that is older, that is experienced, that is disciplined, that plays good and that plays good together.
It's also a team in revenge, and has learned since losing at Duke 80-61 in late November. And I love Yale senior Justin Sears' comments, in that it was a learning experience and one of the losses that is the reason the Bulldogs have made it this far.
A huge Yale contingent is expected for this game, and remember, this is March, and anything can happen Everyone has a big sense of urgency.
The Blue Devils and Bulldogs have scored at a high rate this season, averaging 81.8 and 75.3 points per game, respectively. Look for Duke to struggle with Yale's offense.
5* YALE
Brad Wilton
Two of the most storied college basketball programs meeting this afternoon when Indiana and Kentucky have at it, and for my money I think the Wildcats are simply the better team, and will take it an move on to the round of sixteen.
These programs used to meet yearly up until 2012, and for what it's worth the favorite has covered in 12 of the last 14 series meetings.
Obviously, both teams are playing some great ball right now, but my "eyeball test" says to back the Wildcats who have won 6 in a row both straight up and against the spread.
Indiana won't go quietly, but with the price where it is, simply not going to get too many more times when you can get UK in a sport where pretty much all they have to do is win the game straight up. That is where we stand in this meeting, and I won't pass on the Wildcats to advance.
5* KENTUCKY