Brad Wilton
If the playoffs started today, the Jazz and the Clippers would be facing one another, so you can see that this game does have some importance as to who will wind up with the home court advantage.
Right now, Utah is 1 1/2 games in front of Los Angeles for the # 4 spot, but there is also Oklahoma City (in Utah's division) to consider, so this game should not be seen as a throwaway at all.
Mark me down for a play on the Jazz plus the points, as Utah did bounce-back after losing the first 2 series meetings this year, and 4 in a row overall both straight up and against the spread to the Clips with the home win and cover in the last series meeting.
Utah just snapped a 3 game losing streak with the home win over the Knicks on Thursday, while Los Angeles just saw their 3 game winning streak snapped in a road loss at Dallas the same night.
Close one at the Staples Center on Saturday afternoon, take the Jazz plus the points.
3* UTAH
Andrew Gold
Oregon vs. Kansas
Play: Oregon +7½
I believe odds makers have set this line way to high now since Kansas is coming off back to back blowout wins. Oregon is better than both Purdue and Michigan St, but aren't getting the respect they should with this line. They have the guards that match up very well with Kansas here. I realize this game is played in the Jayhawks back yard and most will look at that as a big advantage. This will be a fun game to watch as both can really score it. Take the points in the meantime!
Teddy Davis
Washington at Cleveland
Play: Washington -1½
The line is obviously telling the story here for this game. The Cavs are in a tough spot playing last night and now on a back to back with LeBron getting hurt. They also have a huge on deck game with the Spurs coming up. They will want to be at full strength for that. They biggest thing here is that the Wizards will want big time revenge as LeBron hit a fade away banked in 3 to send it to OT @ Washington and ended up winning the game. The Wizards haven't forgot about that and I believe they get the job done tonight
Mike Anthony
Utah vs. Los Angeles
Play: Utah +5
Utah leads the LAC by 1.5 games for the 4th seed in the Western Conference. While this is their third meeting in about 20 games and Utah won the last, the Clippers have dominated this series had won 17 of the last 19 games. Utah knows how important this game is to beat them twice in a row as they will most likely be first round play-off foes and the last game was very physical with a post-season feel. I like the Jazz current form much better as they are 7-4 their last 11 with the losses at Okl City, at Clev, at Chi and at Indy with the last 3 coming in a 3 road game/in 5 day stint. The Clippers meanwhile are 4-4 their last 8 with the wins against Philly (12th in East), the NY Knicks (13th in the East), the Lakers (last in the West) and to the Cavs while they rested their top trio. Defensive Dog!
Larry Ness
Toronto vs. Dallas
Pick: Toronto
The Raptors are surviving just fine without PG Kyle Lowry (22.8-4.8-6.9). They enter Saturday's game in Dallas on a four-game winning streak and are now 10-5 since Lowry was sidelined with a wrist injury. DeMar DeRozan (27.2-5.4-3.8 ) has back-to-back 40-point games, including exactly 40 when the Raptors rallied from 15 points down to beat Miami 101-84 on Thursday. More good news for tonight is that power forward Serge Ibaka will return to the lineup Saturday following a one-game suspension for a fight with Chicago's Robin Lopez on Tuesday. Ibaka has averaged 14.4 & 6.45 in 14 games with Toronto, since being acquired from the Magic.
The Mavs' playoff hopes are fading, as they are currently 3 1/2 games out of the West's final playoff spot. They are halfway through a tough four-game homestand in which they ahve already played the Warruors and Clippers (1-1) and still have the Raptors and Thunder. After wrapping against OKC on Monday, Dallas is headed out on a five-game road trip. It seems as if head coach Rick Carlisle is staring to transition into more of a experimentation mode. Nerlens Noel had eight points and 12 rebounds on Thursday, making a rare start. The former 76er just may be stating a case though, as he's averaged 13.8 points on 63.4 percent shooting and 8.9 rebounds in nine starts this season between Philadelphia and Dallas.
Toronto has opened a sizeable lead over the fifth-seed in the East (six games) and now takes aim at Washington, the No. 3 seed. A Toronto win and a Washington loss (Wizards are at Cleveland) and the two teams would be tied at 44-29! That's the play.
Wunderdog
Ottawa @ Montreal
Pick: Over 5
Montreal has a one-point edge over Ottawa for first place in the Atlantic Division and this will be the third meeting in eight days. Montreal beat the Senators 4-1 on Sunday after a 4-3 shootout win for the Canadiens the night before. Three of the four meetings this season have gone OVER with the the other being a push. Ottawa comes off a 2-1 win over Pittsburgh as Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan scored in the shootout and Mike Condon made 34 saves. The Senators have connected on five of 21 power play chances their last seven games. Montreal lost 4-1 to Carolina on Thursday when Carey Price saved 19-of-22 shots. The OVER is 7-2-3 the last 12 meetings at Montreal and the Canadiens are 7-2-3 OVER after a home loss of at least three goals. Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson is 4-1-1 OVER his last six starts and he is expected in goal tonight.
Jimmy Moore
Gonzaga -8
Gonzaga keeps getting no respect with everyone just saying how they played a weak schedule. Well they only have 1 SU loss all season long and they are taking on a Xavier team that is off of a huge upset against Arizona on short rest. I know Gonzaga has not yet covered in the tournament but all that will do is to keep the line lower than it should be here. This game will have a Gonzaga home game feel being played in northern California and the Zags were monsters at home this season going 10-3 ATS. Lay this number and look for a huge blowout win and cover by the Bulldogs.
ASA
Oregon vs Kansas
Play: Over 156
At first glance you wouldn't expect any value in this line as most 'Joes' will be betting over in this game but we feel there is enough room for us to still bet the over here. In direct comparisons: Kansas just played Purdue and the total on that game was set at 156. Purdue and Oregon are very comparable in terms of pace of play, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency ratings and Kansas put up 98 points on the Boilermakers and the game ended with 164 total points. Oregon had a total set of 148 in their game against Michigan who is one of the five slowest paced teams in all of college basketball (Kansas is 83rd fastest). The Oregon/Iona game had a total of 155.5 and those two teams put up 170. Our baseline in college basketball is 145 average points per game. In this matchup we have an Oregon team that has scored 80 or more points in 4 of their last 7 games and a Kansas club that has scored 98, 90, 100 in the NCAA Tournament and put up 90 and 82 in the Big 12 Tourney. These two teams boast two of the top 15 offensive efficiency offenses in college hoops and two of the top 16 shooting teams. Again, this number is just 11 points higher than 'average' so we'll bite and bet OVER!
SPORTS WAGERS
Gonzaga -8½ over Xavier
Xavier came into the tournament off the radar as a #11 seed and laid waste to an uninspired #6 seed in Maryland in the first round. The Musket Men would follow that up by laying siege to #3 seed Florida State to move on to the Sweet 16, which has been familiar surroundings in the past for skipper Chris Mack. Xavier would only inflate their stock more after they knocked off the greatest threat to both the Musketeers and this Gonzaga team in the West Region: #2 seed and Pac-12 Champion Arizona in a shocker. Though the Musketeers went just 18-18 ATS this year, they have been a broken slot machine as of late, covering successfully in their last seven outings. If you have been betting against the Musketeers, you are being abused and have likely learned your lesson by now. However, mid-majors rarely get to this point. From time-to-time, mid-majors sneak into the Sweet-16 but their quest almost always end right there. Do not ignore what North Carolina did to Butler last night because this one has that same feel or worse. The Zags against the Musketeers is a bigger mismatch than UNC versus Butler last night. The Musketeers have a flare for theatrics, as they came from the rear to sink Arizona when Desert Swarm led by seven points with just 3:45 left in the game but let us remind you that the Zags had a 16-point lead over Arizona back in December. The Bulldogs didn't beat Arizona; they smacked Arizona. Iowa State, Florida and Saint Mary's (three times), too.
While the Musketeers are 3-0 in this event against the spread, the Zags are 0-3. For us, that is as sweet as sugar. The Bulldogs got over that Sweet-16 hump and now there is no stopping them. The Zags go nine deep with minimal drop-off when they substitute. Nigel Williams-Goss is one of America's best players. They're also ranked second in adjusted defensive efficiency while Xavier’s defense ranks 230th in opponent field goal percentage (44.9%). Johnathan Williams, an agile 6-foot-9 forward, can guard any position, which means Gonzaga can adjust to and disrupt any team by playing smaller when necessary. How about going big? Think about this lineup that we have seen dominate already: 7-foot-1 Przemek Karnowski at center, 7-footer Zach Collins at power forward and Williams at small forward. The Zags have never been to the Final Four so beating West Virginia makes this dream extremely attainable. The Zags now take a step down in class here while the X-Men take a major step up.
The Musketeers shouldn't be doing this after losing two of their best three players, but here they are, with a shot at going to the Final Four. After winning just one game in February, the Xavier coaching staff literally burned that month from the calendar and kept the ashes in a jar, which they take with them to every game. The Musketeers have a chance to be this year's Big Dance edition of the 1983 N.C. State Wolfpack or they can be just another team that cons you into betting them at the wrong time. For now, we’d avoid the Kool-Aid. Water is better for you anyway. Zags by double digits is far more likely than Xavier winning or losing by eight or less.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto -½ +118 over BUFFALO
Regulation only. While spotting pucks on the road in not often in our toolbox, this is not like a true road game for the Maple Leafs. Buffalo is just down the road from Toronto and thousands of Maple Leafs fans will make the trip because getting a ticket to a Leafs’ game in Toronto is more difficult than getting a Uber ride from the Airport. Getting a ticket in Buffalo is just as easy as getting a ticket to a Gordon Lightfoot concert. More than that however, is that the Maple Leafs have responded to some adversity lately and not did they only respond but they thrived. After a near flawless performance against Columbus at Nationwide, former Toronto teams would have spit the bit the next night at home against a weaker foe. Not this bunch. Toronto responded with a solid 4-2 victory over New Jersey after falling behind 1-0. After losing five games in a row earlier this month and feeling the heat from Tampa Bay and Boston, the Maple leafs responded with a 4-2 win over Boston and a 5-0 win over Tampa. In a big game earlier this month against Philadelphia with the Flyers breathing down their necks at the time, Toronto won that one too.
The Maple Leafs can now smell the playoffs and Mike Babcock has them focused and working harder than ever. Take away the 15 extra time losses and turn half of those into victories and Toronto would have one of the best records in the NHL. Toronto’s high-flying offense will now shuffle off to Buffalo to take on a Sabres’ team that has scored six goals over its last five games or two goals or fewer in all of them. Furthermore, Buffalo’s best defenseman by a country mile, Rasmus Ristolainen is out and he joins four other regular Sabres defensemen that are either on the rack or very questionable for this game. With the Islanders, Hurricanes and Bolts charging hard, the Maple Leafs cannot ease up for one second and we trust Babcock, Lamoriello and Shanahan to get that message across loud and clear to this already motivated squad.
Calgary +120 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. With four wins in a row and nine wins in their past 10 games, the Blues stock is through the roof. St. Louis has not only won four in a row but they have outscored that quartet, 15-4. Thing is, the Blues last four opponents were Vancouver, Colorado, Arizona and a suddenly ice cold Sharks’ squad. Over the past month, the Blues strength of schedule was ranked 28 out of 30 teams. They have Arizona up next in a home and home series so that’s two more games against the Coyotes. No team in the NHL has been hotter or more dominant than the Blues since Mike Yao took over. The numbers are actually pretty sick. The Blues rank 2nd overall with a +18 even strength goal differential since Mike Yeo took the reins (Feb. 2). St. Louis ranked 21st with a -16 differential prior to his tenure. Overall, the Blues have allowed just 32 even strength goals since Yeo took over, which is the fewest in the league. The Blues have allowed two or fewer even strength goals in 20 of 23 games with Mike Yeo behind the bench, including one or less in 13 of those games. Jake Allen and Carter Hutton have combined for a league-best .942 SV% (5 shutouts) since Mike Yao took over. The Blue Notes are flying high with the numbers to support it so why are they such a small price here? Earlier in the year, Calgary went into St. Louis and was being offered +166. Now the Blues are the greatest show on ice and the Flames are getting far less after back-to-back losses? It doesn’t make sense.
The Flames have indeed lost back-to-back games but it was against Washington and Nashville and they held the Preds to a mere 17 shots on net. Against Washington, the Flames had a plethora of scoring chances and went nose-to-nose with the Caps before losing 4-2. Braden Holtby was better than Brian Elliott and/or Washington scored on more of their opportunities than Calgary did. By no means did the Flames get dominated, nor was that +165 price tag warranted. Now the Flames get Matthew Tkachuk back after serving a two-game suspension. Calgary has a 9-3-0 record over their last dozen meetings against Central Division rivals, while Johnny Gaudreau has 20 and Brian Elliott is 8-2-0 with a 2.08 GAA and a .919 SV% in 10 of those games. How tough are the Flames defensively? Calgary has won 30 consecutive times when holding a lead after two periods. Calgary’s only loss this season when leading after 40 minutes came on October 15th when they still earned a point in a shootout loss. Brian Elliott returns to play in St. Louis for the first time since the trade. After suffering through some horrible goaltenders for years, Elliott has brought stability to the Flames and it has made a huge difference. The players know how important this game is to Elliott so they’ll dig down a bit deeper to show their appreciation of what it means to have stable goaltending. Troy Brouwer skated for the Blues last year and put up 39 points before his 13-point postseason helped St. Louis to the Western Conference Final. Flames rookie and St. Louis native Matthew Tkachuk is the son of former Blue Keith Tkachuk who played nine seasons with the Blues and ranks 8th on the franchise’s all-time points list. Yes indeed, Calgary will have plenty of motivation here but more importantly, they are the better team (not the hotter team) taking back a tag.
San Jose +120 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Sharks were abused last night and have now lost five in a row. San Jose is tied with Anaheim for first in the Pacific, which was a division the Sharkies looked to have wrapped up a couple of weeks ago. It's not just the Ducks breathing down the Sharks' necks but the Oilers and Flames are too. Now it's time to get serious. Coming off a 6-1 loss last night in Dallas looks bad but San Jose was sunk by an off-night from backup goaltender Aaron Dell, who was out-dueled by Kari Lehtonen. With Martin Jones back between the pipes, the Sharks aren't likely to lose the goaltending battle here in Nashville. The Sharkies have been able to rebound by going 13-5 in their last 18 games playing in the second game of back-to-back nights. Despite that blowout in Dallas, San Jose hasn't been playing all that poorly. They've recently lost one-goal games against the Wild and Ducks and those are two thriving teams that are both headed to the postseason. The Sharkies recent performance combined with their struggles in Music City have them undervalued tonight.
Nashville is one of the hottest teams in the league but a closer look shows us that its recent run is not nearly as impressive as it sounds. In their last couple of games, the Preds took down a Flames team missing some key contributors. Against Calgary’s backup, Chad Johnson, the Preds mustered just 17 shots on net the entire game but won 3-1. Prior to that, Nashville defeated Arizona, lost to Carolina and needed OT to defeat Winnipeg after falling behind 2-0. Like most games between evenly matched teams, it’s often decided by goaltending and that is where the Sharks have a big edge. While Pekka Rinne has let in just three goals in his last three starts, it's unlikely for him to keep it up. The problem with these inconsistent goaltenders is soft goals are inevitable. Pekka Rinne gives up so many of them despite some great saves while Martin Jones rarely gives up a softie.
The Sharkies almost always come to play. It is an extremely rare night when they get their rear ends handed to them like they did last night and it can’t be sitting well with anyone. The Sharks are a team that dominated the Western playoffs last year and it’s now time to get back into playoff form while responding to last night’s humiliation
John Martin
Los Angeles Clippers -5
The Clippers are chasing down the Jazz for the No. 4 seed in the West and home-court advantage in the first round. They trail the Jazz by just 1.5 games, making this a huge game for the Clippers. Los Angeles has had Utah's number in recent years, going 17-2 in the last 19 meetings. The Clippers are coming off a rare loss in this series at Utah on March 13th, setting them up for revenge here. Utah is 1-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Jazz are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Jack Jones
Xavier/Gonzaga Under 145.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of the best defensive teams in the country. They give up just 61.0 points per game and 36.5% shooting on the season, ranking No. 1 in the land in defensive efficiency. They have held their first three opponents in the NCAA Tournament to an average of 59.0 points per game.
But Gonzaga has really struggled at the other end of the floor. The Bulldogs are averaging under a point per possession while shooting only 60 percent from the free throw line thus far in the big dance. And Xavier has held three very good offensive teams in Maryland, FSU and Arizona to an average of just 67.3 points per game.
And Xavier has overcome its height disadvantage by packing into its zone defense, and that will help slow down the game here. This will be more of a half-court game with both teams working for shots and staying under the total.
Xavier is 8-1 UNDER as a neutral court underdog or PK over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 19-8 in Bulldogs last 27 non-conference games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulldogs last four vs. Big East opponents.
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Washington Capitals on the puck line, laying a cheap -110 to the Arizona Coyotes.
As the Eastern Conference contenders drop the puck on a five-game, eight-night road trip, they need a win to gain even more momentum if they want to stay atop the NHL points race.
So before leaving town, the Capitals will score a huge home win over the Arizona. The Capitals have already built some steam, as they're in on a 4-0-1 run after rallying to beat Columbus 2-1 in a shootout on Thursday night.
After the Penguins lost in a shootout to the Islanders last night, Washington is now one point ahead of the Penguins for the Metropolitan Division and NHL lead, along with a game in hand.
Meanwhile, the Coyotes have lost four of five. Add in the fact the Capitals have earned a point in four of their last five home games against Arizona (4-1-0), and I like my chances for a huge victory.
3* CAPITALS -1.5
Brad Powers
Xavier/Gonzaga Under 145.5
The Bulldogs have held their opponents to just 61 of 184 (33%) from the field so far in the NCAA tournament (best out of all tourney teams) and the Zags have the No. 1 defense in the country according to Ken Pom's efficiency ratings. However, their offense has really struggled particularly guard Nigel Williams-Goss and you can tell the Bulldogs are playing with some added pressure in trying to get to their first ever Final 4. The technical trends definitely favor Xavier here. Xavier is incredibly on a 19-5-1 ATS run in NCAA tournament games. They are 8-1 ATS in neutral court games this year and have covered 7 of their last 8 games. On the other side, Gonzaga is 0-2-1 ATS so far in this tournament and No. 1 seeds favored by more than 7 points are just 2-10-1 ATS in the Elite 8 round. Meanwhile, No. 8 seeds or worse are 7-0-1 ATS in the Elite 8. If you absolutely had to get involved on the side, I would lean with Xavier +8.5 but be wary of that popular public underdog.
Kansas -7
This line is a little steep as Kansas is getting a lot of love (it is deserved) off back-to-back blowout wins over Michigan St and Purdue. It also seems like the Jayhawks are getting around 2-points of home court advantage which is I do believe is about right. No. 3 seeds (Oregon) are just 2-9 ATS in the Elite 8 round. On the flip side, the Big 12 is on a 2-12-1 ATS run in the Elite 8. The media narrative is that the loss of forward Chris Boucher has not impacted Oregon that much. I disagree as if he were in the lineup, they would have had comfortable wins over Rhode Island and Michigan in the last two rounds and I would've picked them to go to the Final 4 (they probably would've beaten Arizona in Pac-12 championship game and would've played in West Region). The Ducks need a player of Boucher's caliber (leading shock blocker) to disrupt the dribble penetration of Kansas' elite back-court led by Frank Mason. It seems like Kansas is on a mission here and that first round loss to TCU in the Big 12 tournament could've been a blessing in disguise as it allowed a short rotation extra rest. If you absolutely had to get involved on the total, I would lean with UNDER 157.
Bob Balfe
Oregon +7
Kansas looked flawless the other night behind what was basically a home crowd. The crowd again tonight will be pro Kansas crowd, but this Oregon team has a ton of talent. All people want to talk about is the injury to Boucher, but guess what this team has won three tournament games. This team has a lot of players who have played together for a while now. I love how Jordan Bell can grab rebounds and of course Dillon Brooks will always keep you in a game. This team shares the basketball so well and I think can grind this game out to a one possession last shot type contest.