NBA: #512 Houston -8 over Memphis
CBB: #526 Virginia/Pitt UNDER
DAVE COKIN
DAYTON VS GEORGE WASHINGTON
PLAY: GEORGE WASHINGTON +4.5
Hats off to the the Flyers. Dayton clinched the outright A-10 title earlier this week by knocking off Virginia Commonwealth.
On paper, the Flyers should rack up another victory today as they visit George Washington. But games aren’t won and lost on paper, and I’m of the opinion Dayton might have trouble getting motivated for this matchup.
Take a look at what other teams have done in their next game following the outright league clincher. Kansas clinched the Big 12 in a win against Texas. Next outing, they had a terrible time vs. Oklahoma. KU was trailing by doubles well into the second half before going on a monster run late in the game to win by ten.
Akron’s next game after clinching the MAC was at home against the worst team in the league. The Zips were outright losers at home to lowly Miami Ohio.
Middle Tennessee played host to a Florida International team that arrived with a 6-23 record. The Blue Raiders found themselves on the wrong end of an incredible 20-1 score to start the game. They eventually gathered themselves enough to win the game, but just barely.
Gonzaga would have been the one team that might have figured to avoid a letdown, as their winning the WCC was a mere formality. Nevertheless, first game off the outright clinch was against BYU. So long, perfect season.
In fact, among the boarded leagues, the only school that hasn’t had some kind of an issue in the subsequent game was Monmouth. The Hawks blew out Fairfield in the next game. But it’s perhaps worth noting that Monmouth barely celebrated after clinching against Niagara and neither did the crowd. It just wasn’t a very big deal this time around. That was in stark contrast to last season when the Hawks blew out Rider to wrap things up and there was a huge celebration. Next game? A struggle as big chalk against what was a very weak Niagara entry.
So you get the picture. Dayton just wrapped up the A-10 with a national TV revenge win over VCU. The Flyers are a lock for the NCAA Tournament as an at-large regardless of what they do in this game. George Washington has been a very solid home team in league play. The Colonials have lost just twice on this court in conference play, and one of those was the utterly bizarre game against VCU, when they somehow lost a game they appeared to have won in one of the craziest finishes of the season.
If Dayton comes to play today, the Flyers still figure to get a decent challenge from a GW team that has won four straight. If Dayton suffers what seems to be a fairly typical letdown under these conditions, I won’t be at all surprised to see the Colonials get the upset win. There’s enough here to justify my taking the points with George Washington.
Scott Rickenbach
Wolves vs. Spurs
Play: Over 205
The Spurs are in the 2nd night of a back to back and that has occurred twice in the new year (once in Feb and once in Jan) and the 2nd game went over the total each time. San Antonio's tight win at New Orleans stayed under the total last night but each of their last 4 home meetings with the Timberwolves have resulted in an over. Minnesota is off of back to back unders and each of the last 6 times they have entered a game off of back to back unders their next game has gone over the total every single time. A perfect 6-0 mark to the over for Minny in this spot. Also, the T-wolves had gone 11-2 to the over in their last 13 games before the back to back unders in their last 2 games. The Spurs have a big match-up with rival Houston on deck and, with potential peeking ahead to that massive showdown with the Rockets, don't be surprised if the Spurs defense is not at it's best in this one. The result should be a rather high-scoring affair as the long-term trending in this series holds true when the Spurs are the host.
Scott Spreitzer
UNLV vs. Fresno St
Play: Fresno St -11
The Runnin' Rebels finally snapped their long losing streak last time out, playing about as well as they can and just sneaking by Utah State. UNLV truly gave it all they had in their season home finale. We feel they'll offer little resistance in Fresno. The Bulldogs have won four in a row with the last two coming on the road at Boise State and San Diego State. But they've had four days to get back to work and should find little trouble garnering their 13th home win in 15 tries. FSU will attack a Rebel squad that allows 82 ppg on the road on 49% shooting, including a ridiculously bad 45% from behind the arc. UNLV is upside down in rebounding on the road and allow their hosts a 1.53 assists/turnovers ratio. Fresno has won and covered three straight meetings and we expect another win and cover here.
Ben Burns
North Carolina -6½
I successfully played against the Heels in their last game. However, that was on the road, against a stingy Virginia team. Back home, where they're perfect on the season, and playing with "revenge" against hated Duke, I expect a vastly improved effort. While the Blue Devils are always dangerous, they've currently failed to cover four in a row and they're just 8-17 ATS against "winning" teams on the season. While Duke scores 75 and allows 70 on the road, UNC averages 87.6 ppg on this floor, allowing a mere 64.
TJ Masterline
Blackhawks vs. Predators
Play: Blackhawks +113
I'll take the hot Blackhawks, no matter who they are playing. To be the dog is only icing on this cake today. Here's some statistical backup. Adding Johnny back into the Hawks lineup is going to shake up the top of the league once again this year. They dominated the Pens on Thursday. Blackhawks are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Blackhawks are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. Blackhawks are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. Central. Blackhawks are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Blackhawks are 8-1 in their last 9 vs. Western Conference. Blackhawks are 13-3 in their last 16 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blackhawks are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blackhawks are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blackhawks are 18-6 in their last 24 overall. Blackhawks are 19-7 in their last 26 games following a win. Blackhawks are 8-3 in their last 11 Saturday games. Blackhawks are 40-16 in their last 56 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blackhawks are 5-2 in their last 7 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Blackhawks are 84-41 in their last 125 games playing on 0 days res Predators are 4-14 in their last 18 Saturday games.
Jim Feist
South Carolina at Mississippi
Pick: Under
South Carolina is #8 in the SEC in scoring, 36-15-1 under the total on the road. USC Senior guard Sindarius Thornwell is second in the league in scoring (21.0) and boasts an SEC-best 2.2 steals, but registered a season-low 10 points in the Gamecocks' 67-56 victory over Ole Miss on Jan. 14. The Under is 35-15-1 in the Gamecocks last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Ole Miss can play defense, too, and the under is 4-1 when these teams clash.
Brad Wilton
Perfect spot for the Rams to get their mojo back after playing their last pair and 3 of their last 4 on the Atlantic 10 round.
VCU lost at both Rhode Island last weekend, and Dayton on Wednesday night, but I have a feeling they are ready to make Senior Day in Richmond something special against in-state rival George Mason.
The Patriots just snuck by Duquesne, 63-62 in their home finale to stop a 3 game losing streak that pretty much leaves them in a position to have to win the conference tournament to make the Big Dance.
Virginia Commonwealth is 14-1 straight up at home for the year, and they sure could use a home court cover, as their ATS mark of 3-7 their last 10 games would indicate.
The Rams did win the first meeting of the year between the teams way back on December 30th, 73-64 as the -4 point road favorite at George Mason, and they have won 7 of the last 8 series meetings overall, going 5-3 against the spread over the past 8 meetings.
VCU to get back on track today.
3* VCU
Brad Wilton
Blowout time in Olean, as St. Bonaventure ends their regular season with a trouncing of Massachusetts.
The Bonnies have played 4 of their last 6 games away from home, and are off a hard-fought loss at Davidson 68-63. Today they get the backsliding Minutemen who have won just twice in their last 11 games, and have dropped spread decisions in ALL 9 of their losses in that span!
This will be the second go-round of the year for these conference rivals, as St. Bonaventure was able to ease to an 89-77 victory at UMass just before the new year, as St. Bonaventure stretched their series winning streak to an impressive 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. They have also captured 7 of the last 9 series meetings both straight up and against the spread.
St. Bonaventure is one of those teams that I am keeping my eye on as we head into conference tourney play, and today I am taking them out for a spin in what will be a comfortable double-digit blowout win.
Lay it with the Bonnies.
4* ST. BONAVENTURE
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Saturday is on the Maryland Terrapins, minus the points against the Michigan State Spartans in Big 10 play.
The Terrapins are locked into the big tournament, and won't really have anything to worry about on Selection Sunday, next week. They're 8-2 in true road games, and they have an impressive overall record that will have them dancing.
But momentum and victories are what will carry Maryland to a better seeding. I know the Terrapins have lost five of their last eight games, but that's why starting March off with a big win, and closing the regular season on a run is imperative.
Maryland brought a three-game losing streak to an abrupt halt with a decisive win at Rutgers on Tuesday, and the first goal is to play for a double-bye in the Big 10 Tournament. The Terrapins can’t fall further than the No. 5 seed, but they want to get into the top four.
Look for point guard Melo Trimble, who ranks fifth in the Big Ten in scoring at 16.9 points per game, to have a big game.
Take Maryland.
4* MARYLAND
Jack Jones
Xavier vs. DePaul
Play: DePaul +7
The Xavier Musketeers are falling apart and in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament. Injuries have taken their toll as the Musketeers have gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS int heir last seven games overall. All six losses have come by 7 points or more with four by double-digits.
Xavier's last victory came at home against today's opponent in DePaul by a final of 72-61 as 15-point favorites. Now the Musketeers face the Blue Demons on the road in the rematch, and I like the value we are getting here with the home underdog.
I also like the way that the Blue Demons have finished out the season by playing competitive basketball and playing with extreme pride. Indeed, DePaul is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. It has hung tough against four potential NCAA Tournament teams during this stretch in Villanova, Butler, Seton Hall and Providence, while also beating Georgetown outright as double-digit road dogs.
Xavier is 1-10 ATS off a loss this season. The Musketeers are 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS in road games this year. Xavier is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games overall. The Blue Demons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.
Chip Chirimbes
Illinois vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers +4
Hey, steak were made to be broken and i'm looking for ward to two streaks to end with one final. The Fighting Illini has won four straight and possibly may be saving coach John Groce's job. Rutgers losers of six straight are last in the Big Ten with a 2-15 record including their last time out, a home loss to Maryland 79-59. The Knights are 3rd in the nation in offensive rebounds and and ninth in overall rebounds and will clean the boards this afternoon.
John Martin
Clippers vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls +2
The Chicago Bulls should not be home underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. The Bulls are playing their best basketball of the season in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. That includes wins over the likes of Toronto, Boston, Cleveland and Golden State, which are four of the best teams in the NBA. Now the Bulls host a tired Los Angeles Clippers team that is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. The Clippers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days as well tonight, while the Bulls had yesterday off. Wrong team favored here.
Tony Karpinski
Villanova vs. Georgetown
Play: Villanova -7½
Villanova is simply a great team who are also a very complete team. Leading the way for their team are 4 guys who can all take over when needed. Josh Hart, is exceptionally good with loosening up defenses with his deep shooting skills and the Gs of Georgetown won't slow him down. Villanova has been nothing but outstanding with their 3ball shooting and their 37% confirms that. The defense of Georgetown has been mediocre at best. They haven't gotten into a heavy ball stopping flow since their game vs Marquette. Their scoring has been declining on the offensive side...nothing all too dangerous here over the last several weeks. Georgetown is only shooting around 28% / from 3 over the last weeks - and the defense of Nova are going to attack this troublesome issue of the Hoyas. Villanova wins by 13 ore more points this afternoon.
Tony George
Alabama vs. Tennessee
Play: Alabama +2½
This is sharp side in Vegas my source tells me and there is a LIVE DOG SCENARIO here. Short and Sweet today on a busy day but Tennessee has ran out gas this season and really faded down the stretch. They are looking at a NIT bid unless they win the SEC Tourney and that is not happening. Alabama the better team and with a win here and a good conference tourney showing could land an at large bid. Alabama is flat out playing better and will be highly motivated in this one and I think they win outright and are catching points.