Dave Price
Pistons vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers +5
One of the best-kept secrets in the NBA is how well the 76ers have performed at home this season. They are 23-9 ATS in all home games thanks to going a perfect 13-0 ATS in their last 13 home contests. They should not be catching points at home here against the Detroit Pistons, who are just 10-20 SU & 11-19 ATS in road games this season. I backed the 76ers last night in an outright win over the Knicks, and I'll back them again tonight.
Teddy Davis
Pittsburgh vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia -11½
I look for Virginia to put the hammer down on Pitt here today. They have had a nice break here after beating North Carolina. They will also want revenge on Pitt from the first game as Pitt hit 62% from three. Virginia is looking to finish the season strong after a bump in the road the last couple weeks.
Sean Murphy
Red Wings vs. Oilers
Play: Oilers -206
Tough spot for the Red Wings here as they play on no rest following a 3-2 overtime loss in Calgary last night. Detroit tied that game up with less than a second remaining only to fall minutes later, and really left it all on the ice, outshooting Calgary by a 37-31 margin.
Of course, it's been a long season for the Wings, and they were sellers at the trade deadline - an odd position for GM Ken Holland to be in. They check in with just 13 wins in 31 road games this season and things won't get any easier in Edmonton where the Oilers will be up for this one following a somewhat disappointing 3-3 road trip.
While I often don't like backing a team in their first game back home following a long road trip, especially when there's a layoff to consider (the Oilers haven't played since Tuesday), here I'm willing to make an exception. The Wings have already picked up three of a possible four points in the first two games of their road trip, and will head back east following this one. I simply see this as a flat spot for them as they continue to play out the string.
David Banks
North Carolina -6.5
It’s fitting that the final game of the regular season in the ACC pits two of the most storied basketball programs in the country. No. 10 Duke travels to No. 8 North Carolina to see if it can pull off a second victory over the Tar Heels this season. The Blue Devils beat North Carolina 86-78 on Feb. 10 behind 25 points from Grayson Allen. The 6-5 junior hit seven 3-pointers, but his status for Saturday night’s game remains up in the air.
Allen has an ankle injury that kept him out of Duke’s 55-50 loss to Miami last weekend. He may not play against 19th-ranked Florida State on Tuesday night. Senior Amile Jefferson has been hurt too and may miss this week’s games, which does not fare well for Duke and head coach Mike Krzyzewski. After winning seven games in a row, the Blue Devils dropped two straight to unranked Syracuse and the Hurricanes.
Without Allen, Duke may have a tough time overcoming the seventh-best scoring team in the country in North Carolina. The Tar Heels (25-5, 13-3) average 86.4 points per game led by Justin Jackson (18.8 ppg) and Joel Berry II (14.8 ). Kennedy Meeks (12.8 ) and Isaiah Hicks (11.9) give the Tar Heels four starters that average in double figures. North Carolina has clinched at least a share of the ACC regular season title and can win it outright with a win over No. 18 Virginia on Monday night or a victory over Duke on Saturday.
Harry Bondi
MEMPHIS (+8 ) over Houston
Great spot to go against the Rockets, who fly home from LA after a blowout win as a 2-point dog over the Clippers and have to travel to San Antonio for a key game against the Spurs on Monday. Talk about a sandwich game! The Rockets are also just 1-4 ATS this season in the game after a win as an underdog and 9-15 ATS after winning by 10 points or more. Today starts a stretch of three games in five days for Houston, so look for coach Mike D’Antoni to limit his starters minutes and have no reason to put the pedal to the metal. Take the generous points.
Mike Rose
North Carolina -7
Grayson Allen had one of his more memorable performances as a Blue Devil when these teams first hooked up back in early February. He went for a game-high 25 points on the back of a 7-of-12 effort from distance which helped Duke drain nearly 50 percent of its shots from beyond the arc. UNC has had its issues defending the perimeter with it ranked No. 127 and allowing better than eight makes per game. If that once again turns out to be the case, they’ll need to throw a crooked number on the board to have any shot of covering this number.
These teams have almost been mirror images of one another to date. Each has had its issues away from the comforts of its own gym, but when at home, they’ve been incredibly tough to beat. While Duke does own a win in Charlottesville, it occurred when the Cavaliers were regressing in a big way. With a chance to lock down the ACC regular season title down in front of the hometown faithful, I fully expect Justin Jackson and his mates to hit the ground running and not look back.
It will no doubt be enticing to grab the points with the Dookies with Coach K's troops 5-1 and 4-2 against the spread in the L/6 overall meetings as well as 4-1 in their L/5 visits to Chapel Hill. However, UNC has thrashed both Louisville and Virginia in its last two home games and is yet to be ousted in front of its rabid fan base. Duke stands 1-2 SU and ATS as a road dog this season, and lost the two games by an average of 12.5 points per game. Look for the Tar Heels to exact their revenge by winning the rebounding battle with Isaiah Hicks back in the mix and locking the perimeter down.
Oskeim Sports
Kansas at Oklahoma St
Play: Oklahoma St Pk
My math model favors Oklahoma State in this game so we are getting decent line value with one of the hottest teams in college basketball. The Cowboys have won ten of their last 12 games overall, including upsets over Texas Tech (83-64), West Virginia (82-75), TCU (71-68) and Kansas State (80-68).
Oklahoma State possesses a prolific offense that is 15.0 points per game better than average (85.6 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 70.6 points per game). The Cowboys are 11-4 SU at home this season where they are averaging a remarkable 92.1 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 39.8% from beyond the arc.
Oklahoma State is ranked 9th in the nation in scoring offense, 12th in three-point field goal percentage (40.6%) and 4th in free throw percentage (78.4%). In what could be an extremely competitive game, I like the fact that the Cowboys are capable of protecting and preserving a lead at the charity stripe. Indeed, Oklahoma State is making 79.9% of their foul shots at home this season. In contrast, Kansas is shooting just 65.7% from the foul line.
From a technical standpoint, Oklahoma State is a profitable 10-2 ATS in its last twelve games overall, including 5-1 ATS in its last six Big 12 Conferencer affairs and 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus .601 or greater opposition. Let's also note that the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series, while the Jayhawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Stillwater.
Finally, Kansas is a money-burning 5-12 ATS in its last seventeen games following a win and 3-7-1 ATS in its last eleven Big 12 Conference tilts.
Kyle Hunter
Florida Int / UAB Over 140
The UAB Blazers have shot the ball extremely well against the weakest defenses in Conference USA so far this year. FIU is by far the worst defense in the conference. UAB scored 85 points in a losing effort at FIU in the first meeting this year. If they get close to that number here, the over should be good. FIU has picked up their tempo in recent weeks. They have absolutely nothing left to play for in the regular season, and games involving teams playing for nothing have historically been much higher scoring.
Jimmy Moore
North Carolina -6.5
Lay it with North Carolina here since the Tar Heels are 10-4 ATS at home this season while the Blue Devils are just 5-9 ATS on the road. North Carolina has same season revenge from an 8 point loss earlier in the season at Duke so they will be extra motivated - not to mention they have lost their last 2 home game to their arch rival. Carolina laid an egg in their last game since they were already getting focused on this one, look for a big performance from them to get this win and cover.
RAY MONOHAN
Washington State vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA -21½
The Bruins get set to take on a very weak and lower scoring team in Washington State, which makes them valuable even with the big spread.
Washington State just simply cannot keep up here. The Cougars average just 70 points per game and have been horrific on the road.
With just a 2-6 mark, Washington State really struggles to generate much of a threat on either side of the ball.
Some trends to note. Cougars are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
UCLA should be able to run right through the Cougars here. Given the speed they play at, Washington State just can't keep up.
ASA
Michigan State vs. Maryland
Play: Michigan State +4½
The Terps are a young team with 3 freshman playing key roles that seems to have hit a wall. After starting the Big Ten season with an 8-1 record, they have now lost 5 of their last 8 games. They’ve had little home court advantage as of late losing 3 of their last 4 home games. They are just 4-4 at home in Big Ten play this year. Their last 2 home games were double digit losses to Iowa and Minnesota. After losing 3 straight the Terps did pick up a win earlier this week however that was against last place Rutgers. As nearly all Izzo teams do, Michigan State is playing much better as the year progresses. They are also a young team however, after losing 4 of 5 in late January, Sparty has now won 6 of their last 9. They lost a tight one @ a red hot Illinois earlier this week 73-70 making this a huge game for their NCAA resume. After the loss Izzo was blunt about his team’s performance. “My staff did a hell of a job and this time I felt our players did not bring what they needed to bring and we’re gonna find a way to bring that to Maryland.” A win here for MSU would clinch the 3rd seed in next week’s Big Ten tourney and possibly lock them into the NCAA tournament. With the Terps struggling, we think MSU has a great shot to win this game outright. The dog have covered 7 of the last 9 in this series and they get another here.
Jack Brayman
My free pick is purely Las Vegas-related, as I'm hearing from my guys directly on the Las Vegas Strip, this has become a battle between the squares and the sharps.
The betting public believes Kansas is still playing for something and is taking in plenty of action. The smarts are simply going against the popular vote and playing this one with intelligence, taking the Cowboys.
Sometimes, when there is no real value other than my premium play, I'll look at the numbers and play with the books and the sharps. In this Big 12 game, the smart money is to take Okie State.
4* OKLAHOMA STATE
Eric Schroeder
I'm pretty convinced Oakland and Valparaiso are on a crash course for the finals in the Horizon Leaue Tournament. They're the top two seeds in the conference, and with Valpo sizing up against UW Milwaukee tonight, I think we have a blowout on our hands.
There are some very bad defensive teams in the Horizon League, and the Panthers are one of them. I realize Valpo is without Horizon Player of the Year Alec Peters, but the Crusaders will use that as motivation.
Before last night's win over Detroit, the 9-23 Panthers hadn’t won since Jan. 27 and finished 4-14 in the league. They won't be up for this one, as they're going to stall against the better team.
2* VALPARAISO
FRANK JORDAN
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: New York Yankees +109
The Yankees suffered just their second loss of the year as they are 7-2 early on in the spring with a 2-2 record in four road games. Detroit is 3-6 after dropping their last two games and are just 2-3 at home. Detroit finished second in the AL Central while the Yankees finished 4th in the AL East, but had similar records and the Yankees got younger. The two pitchers going today, Pineda for the Yankees and Zimmermann for the Tigers, didn't have idea years last year especially who higher than idea ERAs over 4.80. Zimmermann did have a winning record at 9-7 but started 5-0 in April and was 7-2 at the end of May with a 2.52 ERA. Pineda had some rough starts in the beginning of the year, but finished strong with a 3.21 ERA in the month of September. Look for a good start from both pitchers with this being a battle of the bullpen with the Yankees pen coming up with five shutout innings in a 5-3 win.
CAJUN SPORTS
Detroit Pistons vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +5
The Detroit Pistons travel to the City of Brotherly Love for a game against the host Philadelphia 76ers Saturday night. The Pistons and Sixers have split their two meetings this season both were played in Detroit. The Sixers are 22-8 ATS at home this season including a perfect 12-0 ATS since January 3 2017. Philadelphia played last night but no reason to worry because the Sixers have cashed five straight winning tickets against the spread in this situation. The Pistons have covered eight of their last ten when playing in a no rest situation. Another key tech element tells us Detroit as a road favorite coming off a SU/ATS win while going Under the posted total in their last game have produced a record of 14-29-1 ATS their next trip to the hardwood. Our BTPR Index has the Sixers with a 1.97 point advantage against the Pistons on Saturday. Our MM projects a point differential of 6.78 points against the current line range of +4.5 to +6.5 points. All the key elements of this matchup favor the hometown Philadelphia 76ers and that should translate into an easy against the spread victory for them on Saturday night.