SPORTS WAGERS
ST. JOHN’S -102 over Providence
We could go into great detail here about the X’s and O’s and all those other things that prognosticators use to break down games but we’re not going to because this selection is not based on that. This market will easily find 100 different reasons to bet the Friars today including the fact they have won five straight heading into this one, which includes victories over Xavier, Butler and on the road in Creighton among others. The Johnnies are a big step down in class from that trio. Adding to the Friars appeal is that this is a “must win” game because they are clearly on the bubble. Yes indeed, Ed Cooley’s Friars have turned a corner and have found ways to come from behind and win games lately. As for its NCAA Tournament aspirations, Providence will be very uncomfortable if they do not defeat St. John’s and/or win a game in the Big East Tournament next week. If you’re playing the “must win” angle here, it’s not likely to work out well.
The Johnnies surely are aware of the Friars plight. The Red Storm have a chance to knock Providence out of the Main Event by beating them here and we promise you that Johnnies Coach, Chris Mullen will do everything in his power to make that happen. So will the Red Storm players. You see, the last time these two played in Providence, Ed Cooley and Chris Mullen almost got into a fist fight. They were screaming at one another and had to be restrained. The battle on the floor was just as intense. The Johnnies ended up winning that game, 91-86 for one of their better wins this year and now the venue switches to Madison Square, where the Johnnies are playing with house money. St. John's is already seeded in the upcoming Big East Tournament so this game has no ramifications for them. By contrast, Providence will be playing under immense pressure with everything on the line and we cannot and will not trust the Friars on the road to win when they have to. The Johnnies will come in hugely motivated to make life absolutely miserable for the Friars and we’ll trust them to do exactly that.
LOUISVILLE -8 over Notre Dame
After losing five of six leading up to their game with Wake Forest, the Irish have responded with six wins in a row to set up this showdown against the Cardinals. The Irish have locked up an NCAA Tournament spot and will now close out the regular season here. Sandwiched between this game and the Main Event is of course the conference tournament and right now Notre Dame holds a precarious one-game lead over Louisville, Duke and Florida State in the ACC standings going into this one but a loss to Louisville would dump the Fighting Irish as far as No. 5 in the seeding if combined with outright wins by the Blue Devils and Seminoles. During their six game winning streak, the 19th ranked Irish have won by an average margin of 9.3 points and now they’re being offered eight points. This one is almost identical to our play yesterday on West Virginia over Iowa State, given that ISU was hot, they were also ranked, they were ahead of WVU in the conference and they, too were taking back eight points. Well, the Irish are ranked, they’re hot, they lead the Cardinals in the conference standings and they, too, are taking back significant points. Once again, the points look appealing but we’re suggesting they are not.
At the end of the year, nobody gives a damn about the conference tournament except Rick Pitino. All fans’ care about is how you fair at the Big Dance and players care about that too. The exposure these guys get from a deep run or playing in the Main Event is priceless, as scouts from NBA teams attend this event in droves. No team wants to burn out in the conference tournament when they are a lock to get in anyway and while nobody will admit that, it’s a subconscious mindset to be sure. Knowing they’re a lock, Notre Dame may not be as focused here as they otherwise would be while Rick Pitino will be his animated self and pushing his guys as hard as ever.
We’ve talked about Pitino in the past. He’s a coach that would pour it on against St. Francis PA in an exhibition game. If he can win by 30, he wants to win by 40 and if he can win by 40, he wants to win by 50. The Cardinals’ hopes to claim the top seed evaporated with losses in two of their past three games, including Wednesday’s 88-81 loss to Wake Forest as four-point road chalk. Louisville is also winless straight up and against the spread in three straight meetings with the Irish. The market is going to eat up Louisville’s recent struggles and the fact that they can’t beat the Irish. Not only is Louisville cold and Notre Dame hot, but the host is being asked to win by a margin. Frankly, there is nothing to like about the Cardinals spotting eight points but our “trap radar” goes off big time when we see something that looks too good. Rick Pitino will blow a gasket if his team doesn’t win by 20, let alone by eight and we’re now going to be on the side that the line is pushing the market away from.
TEXAS +223 over Baylor
We're going to split this up and play Texas on the money line for one unit and Texas taking back the points for 1.1 units to make 1 to make up our traditional 2 unit play.
Baylor is ranked #11 in the nation but it is stumbling its way to the finish line. The Bears are just 4-5 in their last nine games but there isn't much chatter about their recent woes. The Bears' NCAA Tournament fate is a lock and now we must question what their motivation level will be here with bigger fish to fry on the horizon. You'll hear today that Baylor really does have something to play for because they can improve their conference seeding and get their 25th win of the year. Don't believe the hype. Regular season rewards pale in comparison to a deep run in the main event so this last regular season stop in Austin is nothing more than an inconvenience for the visitor. Baylor looks like a tired team that just wants to get on with the post-season already.
There's no getting around that it’s hard to make a case for Texas here. They've won just 10 games this season and sit in last place in the Big 12 with just four wins (4-13). The Longhorns have lost six straight games to boot. If their value in the market wasn't low enough after all of that, Texas has failed to cover five of its last six. While that all sounds awful, a closer look shows that the Longhorns have been hanging with some of the best teams in the country. Texas was an 8½-point pooch against Kansas and lost by 10 and it also covered getting 15-points at West Virginia. These Longhorns have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this season, but they haven't quit despite their poor results. It may seem like Texas has nothing to play for with the Big 12 Tournament on the horizon but that's not the case. The Longhorns welcome rival Baylor to the Frank Erwin Center in Austin and this game will be televised nationally on ESPN. No team wants to lose on Senior Day in a sold out arena with friends and family present. It’s always a special day with added incentive and Texas is not going down without a fight. The Longhorns have some very close losses and a win here at least eases the pain of a disappointing season. This is a winnable game for the ‘Horns and it's not like their without talent. Expect a big response from the home team with a grfeat chance for the outright win.
Wunderdog
Wofford vs. UT Chattanooga
Pick: Wofford +3
Wofford is a dog, but has won six of its last nine, including twice as a dog. The Terriers are 9-1 ATS following a straight up loss, as well as 10-3 ATS as an underdog. Wofford is also on an 18-6 ATS spread run overall, including 11-5 ATS in Southern Conference action. Meanwhile, Chattanooga has lost four in a row and is on a 7-20 ATS run in conference play.