DAVE COKIN
DIAMONDBACKS AT CARDINALS
PLAY: DIAMONDBACKS +130
Nothing particularly in depth or revealing with this call. It’s basically just the math up and down the line and what I’m perceiving as accompanying value in the betting line.
I’ve got Robbie Ray with a starting pitcher advantage over Mike Leake. It’s not a landslide by any means, but Ray ranks higher on my list by a little bit. The bullpens are actually pretty close, with the Redbirds owning a slim edge, but actually not a significant one.
On offense, I have the check mark on the Arizona side. That’s with the lefty/righty splits figured in, to be sure. Once again this year, the Redbirds are simply not especially proficient at handling southpaws. That should give Ray a decent shot at getting in six or so quality innings today.
Let’s also give the small sample check mark to the Arizona side. They’re doing a great job on the road this season, and surprisingly, the Cardinals are struggling some at home through the season’s first quarter.
This is an all about the value play for me. I make the Cardinals the chalk on my data, but it’s more like -120 than the actual current line. I do expect this number to come down from where it presently is, so chances are getting in early will be beneficial. But at +130, it’s a relatively easy decision for me, and I’m taking the Diamondbacks.
Rob Vinciletti
Toronto vs Minnesota
Play: Toronto -145
Toronto has won 6 of 8 as a road favorite in this range and hits 20 points higher in day games. They fit a powerful 85% system that pertains to their blowout win last night. They have J.Happ going and he has a 1.91 road era and that spells trouble for a Twins team that is 1-5 with a .193 batting average vs leftys. Minnesota has lost 14 of 17 this month. Look for Toronto to take another.
Mike Lundin
Royals vs. White Sox
Play: Royals -110
The Kansas City Royals managed to reach the Chicago's Jose Quintana for four runs on eight hits last night to hand the reeling White Sox their fifth defeat in six games. I like the Royals' chances of staying effective at the plate today against Miguel Gonzalez.
Gonzalez (0-0, 5.17) gave up three runs and five hits with five walks in 4 2/3 innings of Sunday's 7-5 loss to the New York Yankees his last time out. He is 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA in four career starts against Kansas City and Jarrod Dyson could find his way back into the Royals' lineup today as he is 5-for-6 against Gonzalez.
The Royals hand the ball to left-hander Danny Duffy (0-0, 2.57 ERA) who will be making his second straight start after 16 relief appearances to begin the year. Duffy tossed 48 pitches through three scoreless innings against Atlanta his last start but figures to log more innings today. He is 3-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 11 games (nine starts) against the White Sox.
White Sox are 0-4 in their last four games vs. a left-handed starter and the Royals are 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in Chicago.
Ray Monohan
Toronto vs Minnesota
Play: Toronto -140
The Blue Jays and Twins continue their weekend series and it's the visitors from Toronto who have solid value here. Toronto will send out J.A. Happ, who is a stellar 5-1 on the season. While he was roughed up in his last outing, Happ has been stellar in just about every aspect prior to that start against Tampa Bay. His ERA is a modest 3.40, who again is a bit skewed because of one bad start.
The Twins will throw Pat Dean in this spot. Dean got inserted into the rotation and this will not be a fun team to make his first start against. Expect him to not even give them much length considering his arm strength is still down.
Some trends to consider. Blue Jays are 4-0 in Happs last 4 starts with 4 days of rest. Blue Jays are 5-2 in Happs last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.
Given that Dean isn't what you call overpowering by any means, combined with Happ's success, the Blue Jays at this price are worth a move.
Marc Lawrence
Chicago vs San Francisco
Play: Chicago -145
Edges - Cubs: Jon Lester 4-1 last five away team starts during May; and 3-0 with a 1.11 ERA in his career team starts versus San Francisco. Giants: Matt Cain: 0-4 last four team starts in this series. With the Giants just 6-14 in Cain’s last twenty home starts, and Lester 3-0 away with a 0.92 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP this season, we recommend a 1* play in the Chicago Cubs.
Scott Spreitzer
New York vs Oakland
Play: New York -123
The Yanks are starting to find a groove winning three straight after last night's 8-3 win in Oakland. Masahiro Tanaka has been a little shaky in his last two starts, but we'll back him here. Tanaka recognized the issue and he's on the road where he owns a 1.83 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, & .194 BAA in three starts. Tanaka will face an Oakland offense that has lost five straight at home against right-handers, while dropped seven of their last eight to righties, overall. Sean Manaea pitched well against Texas last time out after struggling through his first three outings. But I'm not "buying" quite yet with the young left-hander. Manaea had been tagged for 16 earned runs and 26 base runners in his previous 12 2/3 innings of work. I'm recommending a play on the Yankees and Tanaka as the Japanese right-hander looks to make it three wins in as many tries against Oakland.
Jim Feist
New York vs Oakland
Play: Under 7½
This park is big, great for pitchers, and a terrible New York offense is in town, No. 25 in runs scored, No. 22 in on base percentage and No. 26 in slugging. The Yankees are on a 7-1-1 run under the total on the road,, including 7-2-1 under vs the AL West. Masahiro Tanaka goes for New York, their best pitcher with a 3.51 ERA and a 46-10 strikeout to walk ratio. The last three years he has a 1.32 ERA against Oakland. Oakland is no offensive dynamo, either, No. 21 in runs scored, No. 26 in on base percentage. The Under is 16-7-1 in the Athletics last 24 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Sean Manaea goes for Oakland, with good control walking 6 batters in 19+ innings. He likes this park, with batters hitting .242 off him in 2016.
Matt Josephs
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Under 8½
The Braves struck first on Friday night. Now the two teams play again on Saturday. Adam Morgan's last good start came in Atlanta when he held them to one run and four hits in seven innings in a 3-2 win. Morgan is 1-3 with a 3.24 ERA and a WHIP of 1.120 in four career starts against the Braves with three of them going under the total. Atlanta is hitting .231 against left-handed starters and .220 in the daytime. They have two decent hitters in Nick Markakis and Freddie Freeman. Philly's good bullpen arms did not go used on Friday so they'll be fresh. Williams Perez pitched well at home against Philly on 5/11 holding them to one run and two hits in eight innings. Perez has a 4.68 ERA in four career starts against Philly although he has allowed just four runs and 14 hits in his last three outings against them. The Phillies have scored four runs or less in seven straight games and are hitting around .232 at home and .235 in day games. Atlanta's good bullpen arms weren't used either on Friday so they'll be fresh. These two have gone under in 11 of their last 21 in Philadelphia. We'll get the under in this one that we should have gotten on Friday.
Will Rogers
St. Louis vs. San Jose
Pick: San Jose
The San Jose Sharks have had a long history of playoff disappointments, but things appear to be different this year. The Sharks took a commanding 2-1 lead in the Western Conference Final with a 3-0 win on home ice in Game 3. They've out-scored the Blues 7-0 in the last two games, and I don't think St. Louis has much of a chance in Game 4 at the Shark Tank.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Goaltending - Martin Jones let in a bad goal (for the first time this post-season) that cost the Sharks in Game 1. He's since stopped all 48 shots he's faced in the next two games, registering back-to-back shutouts. Jones now has three shutouts in his last four starts.
2. No Ordinary Joe - The Sharks Joe Pavelski leads all scorers with nine goals in the playoffs so far, and he's one of three sharks that are 1,2 and 3 overall in points scored this post-season. Joe Thornton has been dominant as well, and he had two points in Game 3. Thornton is not showing any signs of slowing down at the age of 36, and he's been one of the Shark's best players in this series.
3. X-Factor - Thomas Hertl had been awful quiet prior to Game 3, but the 22 year old found the net twice in San Jose's 3-0 win. He's as dangerous as they come, giving the Blues just one more sniper to have to worry about.
Brandon Shively
Colorado vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Colorado
I like the Colorado Rockies here as a small underdog. The Rockies lost last night, but they out-hit Pittsburgh 12-8. The Rockies are ranked 3rd in the Majors hitting for a .275 average. Against left handed pitchers, they rank in the top seven in most advanced statistical categories. That gives me confidence they will be able to hit Jonathon Niese, today’s starter for the Pirates.
Jonathon Niese has a 5.60 ERA this month and has given up 11 home runs on the season. In his last two starts vs the Rockies, Niese has gotten tagged for 21 hits in 10.1 innings giving up a total of 12 runs. I am counting on him to give up at least 4 runs today. The Pirates bullpen is not good either with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP so I also expect them to give up an extra run or so. That should give Tyler Chatwood plenty of cushion to cruise to a win.
Tyler Chatwood gets the call for the Rockies and they are 4-0 in his four road starts this season as he has only given up 1 ER in 27.2 IP with opposing batters only hitting only .175. While the Pirates do have an offense that ranks among the best in the Majors, I don’t think this is a good matchup for them considering how good Chatwood has been on the road.
The linemaker has set this line lower than anticipated in hope of getting the betting public to jump on the Pirates at a cheap price at home. I am not buying it, in fact I am taking a position with the Rockies as an underdog on Saturday afternoon.
Sleepyj
Chicago -145
I'll throw half a unit on the Cubs...I just don;t trust Matt Cain vs. a deep lineup..Lester on the hill and he has looked rather good..Giants win streak IMO was a little fools gold..They have the bats, but the arms fall off in a big way with Peavy and Cain..I won;t back Cain much if at all this year..Fading him has been a money train the last two years for me..I'll fire a small bet in against him again today..Cubs are strong !!.
NBA Game 3 - I have been on point with the 4 games so far in the Conf Finals..4-0 record and I tore this game apart for over an hour..I honestly don;t see how in the hell you make a bet on the side or the total..Seems like a pure guess today..I'm staying away and waiting for the next..Coin flip guess game from my work on this one...I would pass on this today...That would be my recommendation.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox -117
Boston is worth a look here at home against the Indians. Cleveland took the first game of the series and that's going to have the Red Sox coming out with a chip on their shoulder to avoid dropping the first two. Boston will be getting a boost to their rotation, as Joe Kelly returns from the disabled list. Kelly looked sharp in his final tune-up, striking out 10 in 6 1/3 innings. Most importantly his velocity was back to normal. Kelly has a sensational 0.82 ERA in 2 starts against the Indians. Even with the loss last night, Boston is 9-2 in their last 11 home games. They are also 8-2 in their last 10 following a loss.
Jimmy Boyd
Yankees -124
New York is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the A's. The Yankees have taken each of the first two games of the series and will send out their ace for Game 3 in Masahiro Tanaka. It's been a bit of an unfortunate start for Tanaka, who is just 1-0 despite a 3.51 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in 8 starts. He's been even more unfortunate on the road, where he's 0-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in 3 starts. It's only a matter a time before he starts racking up the wins, especially with the 3-headed monster the Yankees have at the back of their bullpen.
I'll take my chances on Tanaka getting the victory of Sean Manaea and the A's on Saturday. Manaea is coming off a strong outing in his last start, but overall it's been a struggle. He's got a 7.91 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in 4 starts and is averaging less than 5 innings per outing.
Yankees are 4-0 in Tanaka's last 4 against a team with a losing record, 8-3 in his last 11 against the AL West and 4-1 in his last 5 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game. A's are 6-16 in their last 22 after losing the first 2 of a series and 4-17 in their last 21 home games against a team that's won few than 40% of their road games.
Larry Ness
Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox lead all of MLB with 242 runs scored and have now homered in a franchise-record 20th straight game. The streak-extending HR came off the bat of Jackie Bradley Jr in Friday's 4-2 loss. Bradley pushed his hitting streak to 25 games, during which he is batting .409 with eight HRs, 29 RBI and 16 runs scored. However, Boston has suddenly cooled en route to losing three of its last four contests. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians have ignited their offense during a five-game winning streak, batting .328 as a team while scoring 47 runs (9.4 per).
The three-game series continues late this afternoon in Fenway, as Trevor Bauer (3-1, 3.89 ERA) takes on Joe Kelly (0-1, 9.35 ERA). Bauer is coming off his first loss since being inserted into the Indians rotation in late April. He didn’t pitch poorly last Sunday (three runs allowed and eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings) but got no run support in a 5-1 loss to Minnesota. He had a shaky second inning in which he allowed two runs with two outs but from there he retired 14 in a row until allowing a solo shot in the seventh. "Everything was pretty good, actually," Bauer told MLB's official website. "I need to throw more first-pitch strikes, but I got through it OK. ... I thought I had a really good spring as a starter, and I've continued that this season." Bauer departed his only start against the Red Sox after just FIVE outs and FIVE runs allowed in Cleveland's 9-1 loss August 18. After allowing two runs in an inning of relief during a 6-2 loss April 5, his career ERA against Boston is 23.63!
Joe Kelly was acquired from St Louis at the 2014 deadline trade that sent John Lackey to the Cardinals and missed the final three weeks of 2015 with shoulder discomfort but he showed no ill effects in spring training and earned a rotation spot out of camp. That all changed April 19 when he left a 3-0 loss to Tampa Bay after throwing only 23 pitches because of pain in his shoulder. Kelly could even be seen wincing on the mound after his last few throws, and at first glance the outlook didn't appear good. "I felt a little off, but honestly didn't think much about it," he told MLB's website. "I thought I was going to be good to go and went out there and tried to step on the gas and nothing came out." However, Kelly has recovered quicker than expected. He looked good in his final outing with Triple-A Pawtucket on Monday, striking out 10 batters in 6.1 innings with his fastball returning to the mid-90s.
He's had some durability issues over the last few seasons, making just 45 starts since the beginning of the 2014 season, going 17-10 with a 4.74 ERA in that time. However, Boston is hoping Kelly's return can bolster a rotation that has a 4.74 ERA and sits among the bottom half of the American League. He is 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA in two career starts against the Indians (22-17). He’s gave up just two runs )one earned) in 11 innings in those outings, with his most recent appearance against them coming when he pitched six innings of one-run ball in a 6-4 victory August 19.
Teddy Davis
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -123
This is a good price to back the Cardinals here after they dropped their first game of the series. They will send Mike Leake who has pitched extremely well here in his last 3 games after getting off to a rough start. His ERA is 2.84 and a WHIP of .947 his last three. I see the Cardinals bouncing back here today with another strong performance from him.