Martin Griffiths
Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United
Play: Crystal Palace PK½ +115
Manchester United take on Crystal Palace in the FA Cup final at Wembley stadium today.
On paper United should win this game, but too many times this season the Red Devils have failed to live up to their favourite status.
But, that has not been the case when facing off against Palace this season, they best them 2-0 at Old Trafford and draw 0-0 at Palace.
That said, this is the FA Cup final and form does occasionally go out of the window, Wigan beating Man City, Hull drawing in 90 minutes with Arsenal are just two recent examples and there is good reason to think that United may not have it all their own way today.
For starters there are the constant rumours that Jose Mourinho will become the United manager as early as this evening and you can be assured that the players are aware of those rumours, there is also the fact they played midweek and despite winning, were left bitterly disappointed at missing out on Champions League football next season.
Point is this, United have not had a smooth build up to this final, far from it, while Palace have, they have managed to relax all week and do not have a cloud of rumours above their heads.
For me this game looks ike it could end up all square within regulation time, but whatever happens I am confident that Palace have as much chance as United today and they are worth taking to cover the spread, which means a win for Palace or draw is good enough for this pick
John Ryan
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Nationals +132
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is just 10-26 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points Jose Fernandez is awesome, but this is not all the best situation for him. Washington is a very patient hitting team and they know full well that Hernandez can have issues with command and sit on specific pitches in hitter’s counts. Ross will start for Washington and has posted a 1.21 ERA and a 0.985 WHIP in 4 road starts this season. Further, his season stats are actually better than Fernandez as he sports a sparkling 2.63 ERA with a 1.170 WHIP in 7 starts spanning 41 innings of work. Take Washington.
Neil The Greek
Cleveland at Toronto
Play: Toronto
Toronto has to come out today with a ton of intensity, and prove they can play with this Cavs team. If not, this series will be over in 4 games. I think they can and will. They play a lot better at home. They beat the Cavs in both games at home this year, albeit, that was during the regular season.
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 59-46 run with free picks: Washington (+135) at MIAMI
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Washington Nationals are in South Beach for a clash with the Miami Marlins. The Nationals are in first place in the National League East, sitting two games in front of the Philadelphia Phillies after winning three in a row. The Nats are seemingly back on track, and have won 14 of 23 on the road.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - In this game I want you listing both scheduled starters: Joe Ross and Jose Fernandez. These two just met not too long ago, and the Marlins with Fernandez defeated Washington and Ross. Now it's time for revenge. Ross allowed five runs in 5-2/3 innings, but make note only three were earned. And, he is 1-1 with a 2.20 ERA in five career games (three starts) against Miami.
BOTTOM LINE is - Now I know Fernandez is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 22 strikeouts in his last two starts, and I realize he fanned 11 in seven innings in a win versus these Nationals, but they can hit the ball. And now that they've seen his stuff once this year, they'll be better prepared for this one.
5* NATIONALS
Scott Delaney
My free play on Saturday is the Minnesota Twins, against the Toronto Blue Jays. At Target Field, the Twins are sending Pat Dean to the hill, and he'll be making his first start in his third big league appearance.
The 26-year-old southpaw allowed just two runs in 5-1/3 innings of relief against the Tigers on Monday night, and now he gets to expand his arsenal a bit and show what he can do with his full pitching repertoire.
The 2010 third round draft choice from Boston College has a fastball that tops out at 91 and usually sits in the upper 80s. He mixes in a slider, a curve and a change-up throughout counts, and isn't afraid to try to fool hitters.
His off-speed stuff generally is better quality than his harder deliveries, and I think that could work against the aggressive-hitting Blue Jays.
Take the home underdog and list Dean only here.
5* TWINS
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Over in the Cleveland-Boston meeting at Fenway Park.
After a quick 3 game set at Kansas City, Boston came back home for the weekend last night and could only muster 2 runs total, as the series opener with Cleveland held Under the total.
Look for that to change today, as Boston averaged almost 10 1/2 runs per game on their last 7 game home stand, going Over the total in ALL 7 of those games.
Cleveland is not that far behind, as they saw all 4 of their interleague clashes with the Reds play Over the total, and even with last night's Under, the Indians are still 6-2 Over the total in their last 8 games.
Good luck to Trevor Bauer and Joe Kelly who will be in charge of keeping the crooked digits off the scoreboard today.
Bauer's ERA for the season is approaching 4, and his road ERA is a tick over 5.
Kelly has been sidelined with a shoulder injury and will be making his first start in just over a month. The Cleveland bats have been active, so let's look for Kelly's return to be a little rocky.
Indians-Red Sox Over the total.
3* CLEVELAND-BOSTON OVER
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -121
The Baltimore Orioles have been the best team in the American League this season at 25-15 on the year. They have won eight of their last 11 coming in and should stay red hot against the Los Angeles Angels tonight due to their massive edge on the mound.
Kevin Gausman has been superb for the Orioles this season, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.067 WHIP over five starts. He should continue having success against an Angels team that is 8-13 at home and hitting .238 and scoring 3.7 runs per game in the process.
Matt Shoemaker is one of the worst starters in baseball. He is 2-5 with an 8.50 ERA and 1.854 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 0-3 with a monstrous 14.40 ERA and 2.700 WHIP in three home starts.
Shoemaker is 1-9 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons. The Orioles are 8-1 in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record. The Angels are 2-12 in Shoemaker's last 14 home starts.
Brian Hay
Cleveland Indians +132
Cleveland will send Trevor Bauer to the mound today to face Boston. Bauer did not start the season in the Indians rotation but it didn't take him long to work himself back where he belongs. He has a 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his four starts and his stuff has been really good. Boston has a very talented lineup, but Bauer is one of those pitchers that gets more amped up for the better teams. He will be at his best today and I think the Tribe will give him plenty of support against Joe Kelly. Last season he posted a miserable 4.82 ERA in 25 starts and showed very little to get excited about. This season he's at a whopping 9.35 ERA in three starts and has had a tough time locating his pitches.
Alex Smart
Dodgers vs. Padres
Play: Dodgers -157
Wood the Dodgers starter is currently in top form, as is evident, by his a 2.59 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings in his last four starts. Wood, is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in four career starts against San Diego - including seven innings of one-run ball on April 29 at Dodger Stadium.
Meanwhile, Vargas the Fathers, starting hurler , after allowing just two runs total in his first three starts has allowed eight over his last nine innings, and looks to b regressing.
Considering the current form of both starters, Im betting the Dodgers have the edge here tonight.
Dodgers are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego. Dodgers are 37-16 in the last 53 meetings.
Dave Price
New York Yankees -134
The Yankees are playing their best baseball of the season right now and that should continue Saturday. They will send out ace Masahiro Tanaka tonight. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in 8 starts this year, including 0-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in 3 road starts. He'll be opposed by Oakland's Sean Manaea, who is 1-1 with a 7.91 ERA and 1.603 WHIP in 4 starts. Tanaka is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.658 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Oakland. He has never lost to them and isn't about to suffer his first loss tonight.
Cajun Sports
Dodgers vs. Padres
Play: Dodgers -155
The Dodgers and Padres face off Saturday night in San Diego for Game Two of their three-game weekend set. The Dodgers will send Alex Wood to the bump with his 1-3 SU record and an ERA of 4.17 on the season. He has pitched pretty well but no results to show for it even though he has his lowest ERA of the season he hasn’t had a win over his last six outings.. Wood gave up a run and three hits in six innings of work in a 5 to 2 home loss to the Cardinals last Sunday. He's given up two earned runs and seven hits in just over twelve innings of work over back-to-back no-decisions. Cesar Vargas is still seeking his first win for the Padres this season with a 0-2 SU record and an ERA of 3.55. He has pitched well enough to win but suffered similar results as Wood. The Padres will not have enough to overcome the Dodgers total effort here and we expect Wood and his Dodgers team to come away with the victory. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.27 runs in favor of the visitors on Saturday night.
Power Sports
Tampa Bay vs. Detroit
Pick: Tampa Bay
I say this is a really good value on Drew Smyly, who through eight starts has a WHIP slightly below 1.00. That's what you like to see and even though his team start record may only be 4-4, he's allowed only 2 ER or less five times in his last six starts. The Rays beat the Tigers yesterday, 7-5, and can do the same again today.
Save for sweeping lowly Minnesota, the Tigers have not been playing well of late. They were swept themselves in Baltimore last weekend and are only 5-12 the last 17 games overall. Again, three of those wins came at the Twins' expense. What ails them is the starting rotation (Jordan Zimmerman being the exception) as this group has posted a 4.86 ERA to this point. The Rays have been hot at the plate over the last six games, averaging 8.3 runs while batting nearly .300 as a team. So, they are catching Detroit at the right time.
Making matters worse for the Tigers is the irony that Smyly used to be in their rotation. Since coming over to Tampa Bay, Smyly has a 2.80 ERA in 27 starts, so pitching well is nothing new for him. He allowed only one run and four hits to Toronto's vaunted lineup on Monday and I wouldn't worry about those four walks from that box score as there has been only one other time in his career that he's walked that many batters. Detroit is also just 1-6 vs. lefties this season. Their own starter for Saturday, Michael Fulmer, has a WHIP of 1.966 in his four starts. These are two clubs trending in opposite directions right now and we have a pitching mismatch.
Harry Bondi
BALTIMORE -130 over LA Angels
This is simply a go-against Matt Shoemaker play as the Angels starter has been absolutely dreadful this season. LA has won just two of his seven starts and he has posted a pathetic 0-3 record at home with an ERA north of 14.00. O's starter Kevin Gausman has just a 0-1 record but he has pitched well with a 3.00 ERA and is backed by a bullpen that has been lights out on the road, compiling a collective 1.90 ERA. That will be the difference here. Lay the road favorite.
BUSTER SPORTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -113
Yesterday on these pages we gave out Tampa bay as a free play and we will do so once again.
Pitching in today's matchup for the Rays LH Drew Smyly (2-4, 3.44 ERA) and for the Tigers RH Michael Fulmer (2-1, 6.52) Smyly was one of our pitchers that we were watching right from the beginning of the year as we felt he was going to have a great 2016. Unfortunately for Smyly his first two starts this year were a disaster but since those starts he has had only one bad game. Which was two starts ago in Seattle. He has a 2.88 ERA on the road this year with a 1.12 WHIP. He is carrying a little more motivation today as he faces his former team. As for Fulmer the Tiger rookie has not had a good start to his major league career. In his last game in Baltimore he almost didn't get out of the first inning and only lasted 4 and 1/3 innings giving up 4 earned runs. The reason this is a free play for us and not in our package picks is because this is going to be Fulmer's first start at Comerica Park. This kid is 23 and he finally gets to start at home which sometimes could go either way. Unfortunately for Fulmer he is still a little green and that last start in Baltimore sticks in my head screaming more time in Triple A. This kid is going to be a good pitcher and it looks like the Tigers are going to let him figure it out in the Big Leagues for now. We are fine with that as he is going against a red hot team in Tampa Bay.
Wunderdog
Toronto @ Minnesota
Pick: Under 10
Toronto's offense hasn't been as strong as expected at #15 in runs scored, #17 in on base percentage and #22 in batting average. The Blue Jays head to Minnesota, a large park, and the Toronto is 19-7-1 UNDER the total on the road. Blue Jays' starter J.A. Happ (5-1, 3.40 ERA) is throwing well and the team is 9-1-1 UNDER the total when he starts on the road. His teams are also 35-17-1 UNDER the total when he starts. Happ has a 1.91 ERA in four road outings and faces a Minnesota offense that is #28 in baseball in runs scored and #25 in on base percentage. They have never seen Twins' lefty Pat Dean, who will be making his first major-league start after going 1-3 with a 3.00 ERA in six starts for Triple-A Rochester this season. Toby Basner is calling balls and strikes today and the UNDER is 16-6-1 when he is behind home plate, all of which makes this total too high.