DAVE COKIN
TIGERS AT ATHLETICS
PLAY: TIGERS +115
Matt Boyd is back up from the minors with another opportunity to carve out a spot at the back end of the Detroit rotation. Boyd crapped out in his 2015 maiden voyage with the Blue Jays before getting dealt to Motown. I’m not sure how much upside there is with the lefty, as he doesn’t have powerhouse stuff and he’s probably going to be prone to the long ball with his fly ball tendencies. But is he good enough to chew up innings at the big league level while holding a #4-5 rotation spot? I think Boyd has a chance to succeed at that level.
Boyd has been throwing it well down on the farm, and with Mike Pelfrey and Anibal Sanchez each struggling mightily, this is a big opportunity for the southpaw. Boyd also draws a favorable assignment here, as the beat up A’s are not exactly crushing the ball right now and Oakland has also been a terrible home team this season.
Jesse Hahn draws the starting assignment for the hosts, and he has some alarming numbers. The swing and miss rate is pretty poor, and Hahn’s command in the strike zone hasn’t been very good. What’s interesting is that Hahn is displaying increased velocity in his work to date this season. But there has been a load of contact, and Hahn has been getting hit hard. Granted, 24 innings is a small sample but five homers is a little alarming. Moreover, those shots have all come in his last three outings, following his one good start against Houston.
I’m looking for spots to try to beat Oakland right now. The team has an unfortunate abundance of injuries, they aren’t very good defensively, and the bullpen has not performed well at all recently. I think there’s some value here with Detroit in the underdog role, and I’m going ahead with a play on the Tigers today.
Rob Vinciletti
Dodgers vs. Mets
Play: Mets -155
The Mets are off a walk off win last night and have won 6 of 7. They will be plenty motivated as they celebrate the 86 Champion team this weekend. NY is an amazing 21-2 as a game favorite off a 1 run home win and 9-3 vs winning teams. LA is 0-5 a road dog off a loss where they scored 5 or more runs. LA has Madea on the mound and he has a 7.71 era in his last 3 starts and 7.20 vs the Mets. NY Has Syndergaard going and he has a 2.66 Era vs LA and now faces them at home for the first time. He is a solid 3-0 with an 0.82 era of late. Look for the Mets to take another tonight.
Mike Lundin
Orioles vs. Indians
Play: Indians -150
This looks like a good spot to back the Cleveland Indians as they look to revenge Friday's 6-4 loss against the Baltimore Orioles. The Tribe are 25-12 in their last 37 games following a loss and send Danny Salazar to the mound Saturday afternoon.
Salazar (4-3, 2.32) was tagged with four runs in 4 1/3 innings at Boston his last time out, but he's been outstanding home at Progressive Field this year with a 1.23 ERA in three starts. The right-hander has posted a 2.25 ERA in two career meetings with Baltimore and yielded just one run and struck out 10 to pick up the win in his last encounter with the Birds.
Baltimore turns to Ubaldo Jimenez (2-5, 6.04 ERA) who is 1-5 with a 6.80 ERA in eight starts since beating Minnesota on April 7. Jimenez is 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA in three road starts on the season and yielded six runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings at LAA his last start. He is 1-2 in four career starts against Cleveland with an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.547.
Juan Uribe 5-for-15 with a pair of doubles in previous meetings with Jimenez.
Ray Monohan
Seattle Mariners -1.5 +145
Felix "The King" Hernandez had a VERY rare OFFNIGHT on Friday night. We don't expect this trend to continue Saturday for the M's. The Mariners and Twins continue their series on Saturday and Seattle holds solid value giving the run line here. Seattle has been red hot and this is their chance to create some separation in the AL West with a weaker schedule coming up.
The Twins have struggled all season long, especially on the road, which makes this bet even nicer. Seattle sends out Wade Miley here. Miley has really figured things out, winning his last 5 decisions and is pitching like the Mariners hoped he would when they acquired him this offseason. He's got his secondary pitches working very well, which helps keep hitters off balanced.
The Twins go with Phil Hughes, who has been a mess. With a 1-7 record, Hughes has continued to give up runs in bunches this year when he takes the mound.
Some trends to consider. Given the pitching edge here, along with the Twins struggles on the road, the Mariners hold great value here giving the 1.5.
Jack Jones
Oakland A's -119
The Oakland A's come in highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight and seven of their last eight games overall. I like their chances to get back in the win column thanks to the edge they have on the mound over the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of this series.
Jesse Hahn has pitched well this season, posting a 4.07 ERA in four starts. He has been at his best at home, going 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in three starts. Hahn has never lost to the Tigers, going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA and 0.688 WHIP in two career starts against them.
Matt Boyd will be making his season debut for the Tigers tonight. He went 1-6 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.548 WHIP over 12 starts and two relief appearances last season. The Tigers are clearly desperate for starting pitching help if they're calling up Boyd from the minors.
The Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Detroit is 0-5 in Boyd's last five road starts. The A's are 7-3 in Hahn's last 10 starts overall. Oakland is 5-2 in Hahn's last seven home starts.
Marc Lawrence
Orioles vs. Indians
Play: Indians -148
Edges: Indians: Danny Salazar 6-1 last seven overall home team starts, and 5-1 home career team starts during May. Orioles: Ubaldo Jimenez 0-2 with 6.78 ERA career team starts as a visitor in this park; and 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP away this season, and 4-10 last fourteen away team starts during May. With Jimenez in terrible KW form with 11 BB’s and 9 K’s in his last three starts, and Salazar sporting a 2.25 career ERA in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Brandon Lee
Angels +120
Los Angeles is worth a look at home Saturday night against the Astros. Houston is going to send out their ace on paper in Dallas Keuchel, but he's been anything but an ace in 2016. Keuchel has a 5.92 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in 10 starts. Last time out he was tagged for 7 runs on 9 hits in 6 innings of a 2-9 loss at home to Texas. I'll take my chances with LA at home in this one. Angels will counter with Jered Weaver, who has been on more than he's been off. Weaver has a 5.33 ERA due to two really bad starts where he gave up 15 runs. He's allowed 4 or less in each of his 7 other starts, giving up 3 or less in 5. Houston is also not a good road team. They are just 7-15 away from home going into Friday's action.
Art Aronson
Dodgers vs. Mets
Play: Under 7
The Dodgers turn to Kenta Maeda (3-3, 3.29 ERA), who comes in off an outing to forget after allowing four runs with five K’s with one walk over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Padres on Sunday. Maeda has struggled with consistency after a great start to the 2016 campaign, but he’s been solid on the road this season, 2-0 with a tiny 2.31 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Noah Syndergaard (5-2, 1.94) who gave up one unearned run off six hits and no walks while striking out 11 over seven innings in a dominant victory over the Brewers on Sunday. Syndergaard became the second Metropolitan and first since Dwight Gooden to throw back-to-back outings of 10 K’s and zero walks. Not surprisingly, Syndergaard has been dominant at home this year, going 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA to date. With these two competent starters going head-to-head, the UNDER does indeed become a legitimate investment opportunity.
Jimmy Boyd
Brewers -150
I'll take Milwaukee in Saturday's home showdown against the Reds. Cincinnati is one of the worst teams in the league and come into this game having lost 11 straight. Milwaukee isn't a playoff contender, but have won 4 straight.
I have a hard time seeing the Brewers not winning given the edge they will have on the mound. Milwaukee will send out Afredo Simon, who is 1-5 with a 9.68 ERA and 2.094 WHIP in 8 starts. The Brewers have won just 1 of his 8 starts and are 0-3 in his 3 starts on the round. Milwaukee will counter with Chase Anderson. His overall numbers aren't great, but he's pitched well of late, posting a 3.66 ERA and 0.712 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Last time he took the mound at home, he pitched 8 2/3 innings, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits. He's only given up a mere 10 hits in his last 19 2/3 innings of work.
Reds are 3-16 in his last 19 as a underdog of +125 to +175 and 3-18 in their last 21 on the road. Brewers are 13-4 in their last 17 against a bad team that's lost more than 40% of their games.
Matt Josephs
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8½
Cesar Vargas continues to look for his first win for the Padres. He's 0-2 with a 3.34 ERA in six starts for the Pads. He has 27 strikeouts to go with 13 walks in just over 32 innings. Arizona has never faced the rookie which should help for some early struggles. Their offense has put up good numbers this season, but they are still struggling for consistency. Zack Greinke has allowed eight runs and 18 hits in his last three starts entering Saturday. Greinke is 6-1 with a 1.64 ERA and a WHIP of 0.807 in 13 career starts against San Diego with 11 of them going under the total. The righty held them to two runs and six hits in just over seven innings in April. San Diego is hitting .217 against right-handed starters going under in 21 of 35 games against them. Entering Friday night they were hitting .179 over their last seven games. These two teams should struggle to score on Saturday.
Dave Price
Toronto Blue Jays -125
The Key: The Toronto Blue Jays have won 3 straight and 6 of their last 8 games coming in. Look for them to continue to stay hot today against the Boston Red Sox. Marcus Stroman is having a fine season at 5-1 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.168 WHIP over 10 starts. Stroman has never lost to the Red Sox, going 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them. While Rick Porcello is having a nice bounce-back season thus far, he faces a team that has owned him today. Porcello is 6-6 with a 5.28 ERA in 13 lifetime starts vs. Toronto. The Red Sox are 8-17 in their last 25 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Blue Jays are 16-6 in Stroman's last 22 starts and 9-2 in his last 11 starts vs. AL East opponents.
Larry Ness
Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Baltimore entered Friday’s game at Cleveland on a four-game losing streak, with the team’s slumbering offense getting held to three runs or less in five straight contests. However, Manny Machado had four of his team's 13 hits, while Mark Trumbo moved into a tie for the major league lead with his 15th HR, as the Orioles beat the Indians 6-4. The defeat snapped a three-game Cleveland win streak and dropped the Indians to 25-21 (the Orioles check in at 27-19). The victory gives Baltimore FIVE straight wins over Cleveland but that streak will surely be tested on Saturday, as former Indian Ubaldo Jimenez (2-5, 6.04 ERA) will take the mound.
Jimenez delivered a terrific season debut (7 IP / 1 ER in a 4-2 win) and it gave the Orioles hope that he could carry last season's late success into 2016. However, that has NOT been the case. In fact, he’s 1-5 with a 6.80 ERA in eight starts since beating Minnesota on April 7, with poor control being his biggest issue. Jimenez has walked 27 over 43.2 innings during that span, including 11 in his last three starts spanning 15 innings. He struggled again in Sunday's 10-2 loss to the Angels, allowing six runs (five in the third inning alone) on eight hits in 5.2 innings to drop to 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA in three 2016 road starts.
This will be Jimenez's fifth start against his former team since leaving the Indians following the 2013 season. He's gone 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA, despite allowing just four hits over eight innings in a 4-0 victory June 28 in the most recent matchup. "It's always a test every time you aren't there for the team," Jimenez told the team's official website. "I'm the type of guy who will never lose my confidence. I always have it in my mind that things are going to change." Cleveland counters with Danny Salazar (4-3, 2.32 ERA), who is coming off a Sunday outing in which he lasted a season-low 4.1 innings, while allowing four runs on eight hits in a 5-2 setback to Boston.
I won’t overreact to ONE bad start though, as Salazar had posted a 1.80 ERA in his first eight starts of 2016. Only three of his nine starts this season have come at home but note he’s posted a 1.23 ERA in those games, with a 24-3 KW ratio. Salazar is in a good position to rebound from his shortest start of the season given his home record plus the fact that in two career meetings with the Orioles, has posted a 2.25 ERA while walking two and striking out 14 in 12 innings. Not too hard to make a case for going against Jimenez in this one!
Big Al
St. Louis vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The Washington Nationals "dynamic duo" of RH starters Max Scherzer (and his 20-strikeout performance) and Stephen Strasburg (and his big, new contract extension) have been getting a lot of attention this season - and rightfully so. Flying way under the radar of those two however - and likely very happy about it - is southpaw veteran Gio Gonzalez. The former Oakland Athletic is having his best season since joining the Nats, with a 2.87 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 3.62 K:BB ratio in nine starts. Now if only the wins could come more frequently, then Gonzalez would be having a Cy Young-caliber first half. Gonzalez will get start number 10 tonight against a Cards team which he is 2-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in five career starts covering 35 innings. RH Adam Wainwright's comeback season isn't going as planned. The veteran and former ace of the Cardinals' staff is just 4-3 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 10 starts so far. With the exception of his first season in which he appeared in just two games, those are by far the worst numbers in Wainwright's decade-plus in the Majors. The Nats are 23-9 in Gonzalez's last 32 starts vs. teams from the NL Central.
Don Best Consensus
Tigers at Athletics
Pick: Over
Over is 12-5-2 in DET last 19 overall. Oakland starter Hahn has struggled in his L3 starts, going 0-2 with a 5.60ERA. Detroit starter Matt Boyd is making a spot start in place of Jordan Zimmermann. Boyd has a poor record as a starter, he started 12 games last year, going 1-6 with a 7.53 ERA.
Jim Feist
Twins at Mariners
Pick: Under
Safeco is a big park, great for pitchers, and a weak Minnesota offense is in town, 27th in baseball in runs scored. Minnesota has won only 4 road games all season and is 12-4 under the total in Saturday games. Phil Hughes is on the mound, walking just 9 in 48+ innings and the Under is 18-7-1 in Hughes' last 26 starts with 5 days of rest. Seattle lefty Wade Miley has walked just 13 in 56 innings and is throwing better of late. The Under is 12-5 in Mariners last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. And the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Seattle.