Tony George
Warriors vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -2½
The best team in the NBA this year, the Warriors, have looked pedestrian in this series and will have their hands full on the road tonight as they face elimination in the Western Conference Finals. Down 3-2 in the series, they needed a supreme effort from Curry and company to win Game 5, but OK City has a strong advantage tonight, Home Court! Early on it seemed to me Golden State just expected to win and OK City would just lay down and accept their fate, think again!
Durant and Westbrook have been stellar and have had some help along the way from their team mates however lost in the narrative here is how well Billy Donovan has coached this team, and out coached Steve Kerr in this series, and I think he can put together a "big" lineup tonight and get athletic against Golden State and get the win.
The last game both teams exploded in the 4th quarter after a lackluster 3 quarters of offense, and I think you will see a shootout tonight with both teams emptying the tank and leaving it all on the floor. OK City is a better fundamental team, and have 2 superstars who at home will do what it takes to get it done.
John Ryan
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Royals -101
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-10 since 1997 good for 78.7% winners and made 26.4 units/unit wagered. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHI WHITE SOX) - very bad AL offensive team (under 4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA under 3.33), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL). The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas City is 57-34 (+24.5 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 31-12 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons; 79-55 (+24.1 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons; 41-18 (+18.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points The Royals are 27-14 (+9.0 Units) against CWS over the last 3 seasons. Ventura when starting against CWS has a WHIP of 1.225 and team record of 4-3 (+0.4 units) in these starts. He is much better at home as he is 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA over his four starts at home. Rodon has struggled with a 6.59 ERA in his past two starts on the road. Lorenzo Cain and Paulo Orlando had two hits apiece when facing Rodon last weekend which they will most likely replicate today.
Sean Higgs
Astros vs. Angels
Play: Over 8
I'm going to be honest here. I really don't like much of this Saturday MLB ticket. The most I would lay on any fave would probably be about 150. I'm also 8 games under .500 with my totals on the bases. Look. Always the truth with me, win or lose. So instead of a tidy bankroll we have grounded out a few games (51% overall) and profits of a nickel. We'll continue to build bankroll daily. So for this total. You know we have been on the fade Jeff Weaver trainer for sometime now. That isn't going to change. But there might be a new member joining this train. Keuchel has been brutal. An ERA of nearly 8 here in May. This game is going to be 4-4 before you get up to get another cheeseburger. Dallas has a .294 BA against. Weaver's is sitting at .313. Oh, there will be runs. Sean's FREE PLAY is on the OVER between the Astros and Angels!
Zack Cimini
Astros vs. Angels
Play: Astros -123
Dallas Keuchel's struggles have been a head scratcher. Similar to Matt Harvey, Keuchel can't find his command and steady go to pitches like last year. Yet, there comes a point in time where the offense needs to bail out a struggling pitcher. This should be a great spot for the Astros offense which has had their power bats as of late. Jerad Weaver is a sporadic veteran pitcher that will have a tough time lasting more than five innings against the Astros. Grab the Astros as Keuchel should find comfort with a 2-3 run lead.
Dave Essler
Astros / Angels Over 7.5
I'll throw a "value marble" on this before it hits 8 - if something changes like ridiculous lineups or one team gets the swine flu, we can always get off of it.
I'd LIKE to follow the move towards the White Sox and I do think it's solid - but I cannot flip and Rodon just beat them last week - I almost always like the "other side" in the rematch.
Looks like our Cardinals total is getting hit in the right direction - glad I didn't make it a 3* and sell because daily buyers would be pissed.
Several have asked about the NBA - I have a fairly strong lean to the UNDER but will wait - might formally release it - but that's the play IMO.
Dave Cokin
Miami vs. Atlanta
Play: Miami -145
Aaron Blair not looking as though he's ready for this level just yet. Wei-Yin Chen hasn't been all that good for Miami, but his metrics are passable, while Blair's are not. The Braves have little offense, and the splits are at their worst against southpaws. Atlanta has also been unbelievably bad at home. I'd have taken this on the ru‡n line, but that price is absolute robbery in terms of value at only +110 or +115. Right price here looks to me to be more like -180, particularly when weighing in how well Miami has played on the road. So the right move for me is the Marlins money line.
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 61-51 run with free picks: Miami (-1', +110) at ATLANTA
The STORYLINE in this game today - My free play for Saturday takes me to Turner Field, where I have to side with the Miami Marlins on the Run Line, over the Atlanta Braves. Complete pitching mismatch here, and what you're going to see if the Marlins' lineup go off on Aaron Blair, who is back in the rotation for a spot start. Bad move.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Let's talk about this pitching clash, as I do like Miami's Wei-Yin Chen, who has allowed six home runs in his last six starts, but is the type of pitcher who can improve game by game. The left-hander had a no-decision against the Braves on April 15, and comes into this one having gone at least six innings in six of nine starts. He can outclass Blair, who was supposed to remain at Triple-A a bit longer, but returned for this one was after tonight's projected starter Casey Kelly made an emergency relief appearance on Wednesday. He will get hammered, again.
BOTTOM LINE is - Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Chen and Blair. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play. Fastball command has been Blair's downfall in his past two starts, and it'll happen again tonight.
2* MIAMI -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Milwaukee Brewers, the same team I gave you for my 400♦ on Friday night. Only tonight we're playing the Brew Crew on the Run Line, over the struggling Cincinnati Reds.
There is an easy reason to see why I like this rivalry tonight. The Brewers have won four in a row, while the Reds are mired in an 11-game losing streak.
The Reds' losing streak hasn't done anything for a horrendous road mark this season, which has seen them lose 18 of 21 with a suitcase in hand. They're in the cellar in the National League Central, and are in the middle of a road trip - which makes this trip worse. Continuous losing and sleeping in a strange bed is horrible in baseball.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are seeing the weekend as an opportunity, as they're 2' games back of third place St. Louis, which is playing at National League East-leading Washington this weekend. In reality, the Brewers could start next week chasing Pittsburgh for second place if they can sweep.
Take the Brewers in this one tonight, and MAKE NOTE: All Run Line/Total plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager. But with this game I am not concerned with who goes for either team tonight and want you playing this game on the Run Line regardless. That being said, IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be sure you have action even if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched, by re-wagering the game if that takes place.
1* BREWERS -1.5
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Toronto Blue Jays, who are back to playing the same club that made a deep run in the American League playoffs last season. I thought the Boston Red Sox were dangerous on offense, but wow, what a win for Toronto last night, when Josh Donaldson homered twice and finished with five RBIs to lead the Blue Jays to a 7-5 victory.
The Jays will win once again, tonight against the Red Sox.
Toronto has won six of its last eight to get back to .500 for the first time in two weeks, and is seeing a nice surge by Donaldson, who won the AL MVP while batting .297 with 41 homers and 123 RBIs in 2015. He's been struggling at the plate, but finally can use a big night to propel from.
I'll take a shot here, as the home team rolls.
2* BLUE JAYS
Brad Wilton
Michael Pineda picked up a long-overdue win his last trip to the mound, but he did still allow 3 runs in 6 innings, and based on Pineda's sky-high 6.34 ERA, I will look for Tampa Bay to get their cuts in at the plate and put some runs up on the Tropicana Field scoreboard.
The Over is 5-2 in Pineda's starts this year, and his counterpart Matt Moore is not all that far behind. Moore owns a season ERA of 5.47, and the Over has gone 3-0-1 the last 4 times he has been on the hill.
The Yankees have not been doing too bad at the plate, scoring 4 runs or more now in 8 of their last 9 after last night's 9 innings.
Last night held Under, but the Rays are still 11-4-1 Over their last 16 games played.
Suspect pitching here on Saturday yields an Over between the Yanks and Rays.
2* N.Y. YANKEES-TAMPA BAY OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Over in Arlington as the Pirates and Rangers play the middle game of their three game set.
Last night opened with some fireworks, as the teams combined for 10 runs and an Over, the Pirates scoring 9 of those 10 runs.
Pittsburgh is now riding an Over streak of 5 in a row after last night, and the Over is a money-making 10-4 their last 14 games contested.
Texas has been Over in their last pair of games now, and the Over is also 8-3-1 their last 12 at home.
The Rangers should get the bats cooking against Juan Nicasio who is the owner of a 4.46 ERA for the season, and an ERA well over 6 for his last 3 starts which has last 16-plus innings and has seen 11 earned cross the plate.
The Over stands at 4-2-1 the last 7 times Nicasio has started.
Yu Darvish is back in the bigs and making his first start since August of 2014. Doutbful they push Darvish deep tonight regardless of how he is throwing, so look for the bullpen to be in this game early regardless.
Pirates-Rangers Over the total.
4* PITTSBURGH-TEXAS OVER
Tony Karpinski
Phillies vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -260
Addison Russell's average ( .247) isn't that great, but he continues to display the type of hitting skill that prompted the Cubs to keep him hitting in their lineup - and he will swing his bat the best way he can again here. They have too much for the Phillies to handle.
Ryan Howard's batting average ( .160) is not a huge asset to Philadelphia , even though his 8 home runs and 18 RBI hitting in the Phillies lineup is still somewhat useful matched up vs Chicago, this is going to really test his eye. I take the pitching vs the struggling vet.
Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND -1½ +141 over Baltimore
Playing the Indians yesterday was indeed risky but this one is has a far better chance of cashing for several reasons. For one, Ubaldo Jimenez has very little left in his career tank. Jimenez has produced negative value in four of the last five seasons and his 89-mph fastball so far in 2016 continues a gradual decline from its prior mid-90s peak. The “good” version of Ubaldo (sub-4.00 xERA) is a fringe-average SP who needs strand % help to get his ERA to a useful level. We may never see that good version again.That both his swing and miss rate and first-pitch strike rate are below league average leaves little hope for command growth. Jimenez has walked 16 batters over his past 28 innings. Last season, Jimenez's groundball rate was at its highest level since 2010, but regression this season is pulling in the wrong direction. There are much better places to speculate than Jimenez.
Yesterday we also spoke about the Orioles strikeout numbers and while Trevor Bauer was not mowing them down like others were over the past week, Danny Salazar likely will. Salazar has 67 K’s in 54 innings and 41 K’s over his past 31 frames. Salazar's elite strikeout rate is backed by an excellent swinging-strike rate and mid-90s velocity.Salazar has tallied three dominant outings in all three of his home starts this season. When he last faced the Orioles back in 2015, he held them to one earned run in seven innings while striking out 12. Salazar comes into this start with an oppBA of .181, a 2.32/2.98 ERA/xERA split and a 53% groundball rate. After a short outing in Boston in his last start (4.1 frames) we’ll count on him to make these Orioles look silly.
ATLANTA +136 over Miami
Wei-Yin Chen had 12 strikeouts in six innings against the Brewers two starts ago. 12 K’s in one game will never happen again for Chen because he’s never been a big strikeout guy and never will be. Take out those 12 K’s in six frames and Chen would have 33 K’s all year in 54 innings. Chen's greatest asset is his ability to limit the free pass, as his elite first-pitch strike rate and ball% will keep his control in tip-top shape. Chen's K-rate/swing and miss combo has remained relatively flat, which limits the odds for any overall gains. Outside of his pin-point control, all of Chen’s other skills remain below league average. If he had more to offer, a starting-pitching desperate team like the Orioles would not have let him walk. Chen recently faced the Phillies twice and struck out six of them in a combined 12 innings. He’s been taken yard three times in his last two starts and has a 4.85 ERA over his last five starts. His opponents over that span were the Brewers twice, the Phillies twice and the Rays once. Not exactly the cream of the crop.
A couple of days ago we discussed the Braves seemingly anemic offense. After all, the Braves have scored the fewest runs in MLB. We mentioned how unlucky they have been with the 12th fewest strikeouts in the league, ahead of teams such as Baltimore, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Washington, Detroit and the South Side among others. The Braves continue to put the ball in play with great regularity. They lost 6-2 the night we played them but they had eight hits, four walks and one hit batter. That’s 13 baserunners but just two scored. They had two men on base or more in six of nine innings. Last night, the Braves won 4-2 in the opener of this series. Atlanta had 14 hits and walked twice for 16 baserunners and once again had two men on base or more in six of eight innings. Over the past 10 games, Atlanta owns the 9th best OPS in the league, ahead of Miami, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Cleveland, Toronto, Baltimore, the South Side, Texas and many others. These Braves are having quality AB’s every game. Very soon they will string together all those hits and walks as oppose to scattering them.
In his first five 2016 starts, Aaron Blair only managed one half decent start. In his past two starts, he gave up 12 earned runs in five innings. Overall, he has a 7.59 ERA with 12 walks and just eight K’s in 21 innings. Until he shows some modicum of success, this market will stay clear of him but that’s not who Aaron Blair is. Aaron Blair is a young pitcher with tremendous upside so hopefully he has settled down after his first taste at this level and starts pitching like he’s capable of.
Blair zipped through the minors since becoming Marshall's highest drafted player as the 36th overall pick in 2013. He spent time at both Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno in 2015, ranking among the Top 20 Prospects in both the Southern and Pacific Coast leagues. In addition, he pitched for USA Baseball's silver-medal Pan Am Games team, starting against Cuba. The key to Blair's success is a heavy 91-95 mph fastball that features plus downward plane, allowing him to keep balls on the ground and inducing weak contact. He gets swings and misses with an 11-to-5 curveball that he throws in the 72-76 mph range. The pitch has improved from below-average to flash plus at times. His best secondary offering is a plus changeup in the 81-84 mph range that he uses to pitch to contact. He also introduced an occasional slider in 2015 that gets slurvy at 82-84 mph. Blair is an effective strike-thrower whose big hands and clean delivery give him plus command, and he does a good job of pitching to his strengths. He's athletic for his size and repeats his delivery, projecting as a workhorse with a knack for going deep into his starts. Some pitchers never excel in the majors like they did in the minors and time will tell if that applies to Blair but he has to get back to his strengths first, which is commanding the zone and being aggressive. If he gets back to who he truly is, Blair has a great chance to thrive but the time to buy him would be now because his stock is so low. Finally, the Braves are 3-20 at home, which is a ridiculously radical number that is also in for a big correction.
Please note: More games may be added or subtracted by 6 PM or thereabouts, as we monitor lines looking for value all day.
San Diego +171 over ARIZONA
We all know what Zack Greinke is capable of but when a nasty bug hits the dugout, there isn’t a thing anyone can do to shake it. Greinke is not one of those highly intense players either that rubs off on others. He’s great but he’s also a laid back personality that probably isn’t too happy about his decision to sign with these losers. After getting walloped in Pittsburgh by a combined score of 25-8 over a three-game set, the D-Backs returned home to face Christian Friedrich and the Padres last night. They lost 10-2 and have now been outscored 35-10 over their past four games. So far this year the Diamondbacks have employed the following players in center field: David Peralta (more of a corner infielder), Chris Owings (more of a middle infielder), Chris Herrmann (literally a catcher), Socrates Brito (died over 2,000 years ago), and Michael Bourn (died three years ago, effectively).
In the off-season, the Braves robbed Arizona in the Shelby Miller deal. Over the past week, the D-Backs have made eight roster changes. Prior to last night’s 10-2 shellacking by San Diego, they held a closed door meeting. The D-Backs have four wins over their past 15 games and their best player is rookie Brandon Drury. Defensively, Arizona is a mess. Only four teams have committed more errors but it’s even worse than it looks because its middle infielders do not get to as many balls as others. Arizona has seven wins in 25 home games. Every player wishes they were somewhere else. Finger pointing has begun and more moves were made after last night’s sick loss. Can they win here? Of course they can but they have a better chance of losing. Things must change from within before they get better on the field and we see things getting worse intead of getting better. Big overlay.
Brandon Shively
Minnesota vs. Seattle
Pick: Minnesota +1.5
Did you know that the Seattle Mariners are a MONEY BURNING 3-16 (15%) as a home favorite on the Run Line (-1.5 runs) this season? Well, that is a fact and that fact alone makes a fade on the Mariners worth a shot tonight.
Looking at the pitching matchup, Phil Hughes for the Twins is their pitcher with the most experience and in my opinion, is overdue for some better luck to fall his way. Hughes has a 5.55 ERA this season but his advanced metrics are slightly better. Hughes does not walk a lot of batters which has always been his strength and I like pitchers that I can count on to throw the ball down the middle of the plate. Hughes has a career 3.50 ERA in 69 innings pitched vs the Mariners.
Wade Miley gets the nod for Seattle. Miley has a 4.50 ERA on the season. Miley surprisingly has been better on the road this season than at Safeco Field, which is also in our favor.
The Twins have only 5 road wins this season...Not a lot of people will be betting on them tonight, as this is an ‘under-the-radar’ underdog that I feel brings some value to the table. The Mariners have been better on the road than at home this season while the Twins are long overdue for a mini winning streak. Taking the +1.5 runs here gives us two ways to win the bet, and I don’t mind laying the small amount of juice here to insure us a win.
Harry Bondi
MILWAUKEE -140 over Cincinnati
The Reds are a historically bad team right now. Not only are they losers of 11 straight, but Cinci is 3-18 on the road. One of the major problems with this team is the bullpen, which has posted a 7.11 ERA on the road and they won't be able to hide that deficiency tonight since they can't expect to get too many innings from starter Alfredo Simon. The 35-year-old journeyman is 1-5 with a 9.68 ERA and hasn't got out of the sixth inning in his last five starts.