DWAYNE BRYANT
Miami Marlins -150 1st Half
If the Braves could play the Marlins every day, they'd be in great shape. Atlanta is 4-0 against Miami this season, but just 9-34 against the rest of the league. The Braves swept a three-game series in Miami in mid-April, and took Game 1 of this series last night. I expect the Marlins to snap that terrible streak against the Braves with a W this afternoon.
Miami has never faced Atlanta's Aaron Blair, but Blair has been just plain awful. There's nothing to like about a 7.59 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and .412 OBP. It's no wonder Atlanta has lost all five of Blair's starts this season.
Miami's Wei-Yin Chen is in a bounce-back spot today after giving up five runs on nine hits (two homers) in 5 2/3 innings against the Rays in his last start. Chen faced Atlanta at home on 04/15 and pitched well, allowing just two runs on four hits while striking out six in 6 1/3 innings. The bullpen blew it for him. In fact, if there's one edge the Braves have (in my opinion) it's the bullpen. So I'm taking them out of the equation.
Atlanta is the absolute worst offensive team in baseball against left-handed pitching, based on advanced metrics. So I expect another strong performance from Chen today. I'll be shocked if Blair outpitches Chen.
BUSTER SPORTS
Baltimore at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -152
The Orioles took the opening game of the series last night winning 6-4. The Indians were coming off a 9 game road trip and was predictable that they could have had an off night in their first game at home for a 9 game homestand. Salazar has been pitching excellent for the Indians. At home this year Salazar has a 1.23 ERA with a WHIP of 0.773. His opponent for tonight Ubaldo Jimenez tells a different story and is trying to save his spot in the Orioles rotation. On the road he has a 7.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.80. When we look closer it is even worse for Jimenez. In his last 3 starts he has a 9.60 ERA and a WHIP of 2.20 all of this spells trouble for the Orioles. Add that to the fact that Salazar is 1-1 when starting against the Orioles with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.00. Then the fact that the Indians are 7-2 in Salazar's last 9 starts vs. American League East. Gives us an easy victory with the Indians today.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Cincinnati at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -140
As long as Cincinnati right-hander Alfredo Simon remains employed by a Major League club, I will continue to fade him to the bank. The 35-year-old veteran is 1-5 with a 9.68 ERA and 2.09 WHIP this season, including going 0-3 with an 18.00 ERA and 3.55 WHIP on the road and 0-2 with a 10.57 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in his last three outings. In his two most recent outings, Simon yielded a combined 15 earned runs on 23 hits in just 9 1/3-innings of work. Simon's underlying metrics are just as depressing: 6.72 FIP, 5.36 xFIP, 4.86 SIERA, 4.21 BB/9 and 2.23 HR/9.
After a strong start to the 2014 campaign, Simon's inevitable regression began in his final 11 outings where he posted 4.69 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The aging hurler's regression has continued ever since, and I am not even sure Simon should be toeing the rubber at the minor league level in light of his eroding skill set. The only glimmer of hope for the aging soft-tosser is the fact he has been relatively unlucky with a .400 BABIP and 57.4% LOB% this season. Some probable regression in those two categories should result in improved peripherals for the hopeless hurler.
Cincinnati also enters today's game with a truly inept bullpen that owns a 6.49 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, including a 7.17 ERA and 1.82 WHIP on the road and a 6.98 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over the last seven games. Milwaukee right-hander Chase Anderson gets to face a scuffling Cincinnati squad that is averaging 3.8 runs per game (.226 AVG.; .278 OBP), including 3.0 runs per game on the road (.221 AVG.; .273 OBP) and 1.7 runs over the last seven games (.159 AVG.; .204 OBP).
Anderson possesses a plus changeup and curve, but continues to underperform his skill set. A 2.94 HR/9 rate adds more fuel to the fire, although improved velocity and strikeout rate provide glimmers of hope.
Technically speaking, the Reds are 5-17 in Simon's last 22 starts, including 1-9 on the road and 0-4 in game 2 of a series. Cincinnati is also a woeful 16-41 on the road, 9-23 versus National League Central opponents and 16-46 in their last 62 games overall. With Milwaukee standing at 12-4 in its last 16 games versus .399 or worse opposition.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia @ Chicago
Pick: Under 10.5
Philadelphia has the second worst offense in baseball in runs scored, behind punchless Atlanta. They are #27 in on base percentage and #28 in slugging. The offense has scored two or fewer runs in four of the last seven games. At least the Phillies have a talented young arm on the mound in Jerad Eickhoff, allowing three or fewer runs in seven of nine starts. Eickhoff tossed seven scoreless innings Sunday against the Braves to pick up his second win of the season, needing only 85 pitches to complete his seven shutout innings. The offense doesn't help his cause, however, scoring just 24 runs in his nine starts with two or fewer in five of them. They face a Chicago Cubs squad that is tops in baseball in pitching with a 2.70 team ERA. They go with righty Kyle Hendricks, who is 1-1 with a 2.28 ERA in four home starts. The UNDER is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings at Wrigley Field and this shapes up as a defensive duel.
Bruce Marshall
Pirates +115
Big night for Rangers starter Yu Darvish, back from an elbow injury and making his first start since 2014. But this price looks awfully aggressive especially against a Pirates team that won last night in Arlington by a 9-1 count. The Bucs' Juan Nicasio has gone three straight outings without a quality start but seems to get consistent run support, with 17 runs of cushion helping the Bucs win his last two starts.
Scott Rickenbach
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8½
Many bettors like to play streaks and that is what has helped this total to remain at an 8.5 all morning long which is why it is now time for me to pull the trigger on this free play on the under. Sure there have been 7 straight overs in Diamondbacks games and the over is 9-1 in Arizona's last 10 games. However, it hasn't been on the strength of their offense. The Dbacks have been held to 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 14 games. As for the Padres, yesterday's 10-run outburst was certainly an aberration. San Diego had previously been held to 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 10 games. The under cashed in 7 of 10 times in those contests. Based on these facts plus the pitching match-up tonight, we should see a pitchers' duel here. The Padres Cesar Vargas has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his 6 starts this season! As for the Diamondbacks Zack Greinke, his numbers are flawed by an ugly start to the season. In Greinke's last 8 starts have produced 6 quality starts. He also is 6-1 with a 1.64 ERA in 13 career starts against San Diego. Couple that with Vargas' edge here (the Diamondbacks have never faced him) makes this a solid spot for a tight, low-scoring game here.
Martin Griffiths
New York Red Bulls vs. Toronto FC
Play: Toronto FC PK½ +128
New York Red Bulls host Toronto at the Red Bull Arena this evening, with the visitors expected to take a share of the points by either claiming a win or draw.
New York Red Bulls enjoyed an excellent 7-0 victory over local rivals City last weekend, as the club attempt to improve their poor start to the season. Although currently on positive goal difference, the statistics are entirely due to their last match, and the Red Bulls have significant defensive problems to work on. Jesse Marsch’s side lost their opening league game 2-0 at home to Toronto, and have endured mixed results since. While the hosts could use their solid attacking options to earn a draw, there’s little chance of the Red Bulls getting their revenge and winning tonight.
Visitors Toronto spent the early months of the campaign on the road during stadium renovations, and will return to the Red Bull Arena after four tough home fixtures. Greg Vanney’s squad beat Dallas on their first match back in front of their home support, before a draw against New York City and a close defeat to the Vancouver Whitecaps. Considering their opponents’ positions in the league, Toronto have promising performances to draw upon, and will be motivated by the possibility of topping the Eastern Conference with a victory. However, their attack has been a little underwhelming this campaign, and the Reds may settle for a draw instead.
In summary, i believe that the travelling Toronto side will either draw or win once more against New York Red Bulls this evening.
Aaron Toller
White Sox vs. Royals
Pick: Royals +100
Free pick for Saturday baseball is on the Kansas City Royals. Even money at home I give a slight edge to the Royals with Ventura on the mound despite him not pitching up to par. I think he and the Royals find away to win this ballgame today.
Dr. Bob
Opinion – Golden State (+3) over OKLAHOMA CITY
Oklahoma City is better now than they were in the regular season and they’ve outplayed the Warriors in this series so far. However. Steve Kerr responded to Oklahoma City’s big lineup by going big 100% of the time that OKC went big in game 5 and the Warriors were even on the boards and won that game by 9 points despite about 6 points of negative 3-point and free throw variance - OKC made 43.3% of their 3-point shots (33% expected) while the Warriors shot below the 40% expected from them (37.5%). Golden States still rates as the best team in the NBA and the 5 games in this series have not changed that. My ratings favor Oklahoma City by just 1 point and the line opened with the Warriors as a 1½ points favorite – so I believe the line value sides with Golden State. There are no significant situations that apply to this game and I’ll lean with Golden State at +3 or more based on the line value. I have no opinion on the total.