Free Picks for Saturday, May 6th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
WARRIORS AT JAZZ
PLAY: JAZZ 1H +1.5
Strategy remains the same with these partial game plays, and this will be the final one for this round of the NBA playoffs. The Jazz figure to come out with great intensity in their initial home game vs. Golden State. I don’t have confidence Utah can get past the Warriors over the full 48 minutes, but I like their chances of seeing them play their best ball in the first 12/24 minutes. The angle continues to pay off handsomely, so once more it’s a 1Q/1H split on the Jazz.
Scott Rickenbach
Boston at Minnesota
Play: Boston -151
As long-time followers know I rarely lay juice and certainly avoid $2+ favorites! However, I will rarely lay in this price range ($1.50) when it is an exceptionally strong situation and i see solid line value. That is the case here with the Red Sox after they fell short a second straight day at Minnesota yesterday. Boston has not lost three straight games this entire season and I don't expect that to change here! The Red Sox will have Rick Porcello on the mound and he has a stellar 1.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season. The biggest problem for Porcello this season has been a lack of run support but that should change today. Nick Tepesch gets the start for the Twins and he has a 2.00 ERA in his 3 starts this season but those were in the minors. Also, he hasn't pitched in 2 weeks so his pitch count will be limited here plus I don't expect him to be sharp since he's been on such a layoff. Keep in mind, Tepesch is 9-18 with a 4.68 ERA in his MLB career and has only made 1 start at the MLB level since 2014. The Red Sox are 8-4 in day games this season while Minnesota, even with yesterday's win, is still only 2-5 in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season.
Ray Monohan
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks +109
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies continue their series on Saturday. The Diamondbacks as underdogs have a lot of value in this one. I am very surprised to see the Diamondbacks as underdogs considering the pitching match up. On the mound for the Diamondbacks is Patrick Corbin who has pitched really well this season but just hasn't got much run support. He comes into this game with a 2.29 ERA and gave up zero runs in his last start.
On the other side of this match up is Tyler Anderson who has really struggled this season.He comes into this game with a 1-3 record and a 7.71 ERA on the season. I think he will struggle again against the Diamondbacks bats. Some trends to note. Diamondbacks are 10-2 in Corbins last 12 starts vs. Rockies. Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Corbins last 5 road starts vs. Rockies.
Jim Feist
Penguins vs. Capitals
Play: Over 5
Both teams are very strong on offense, with Pitt #1 in the NHL in goals scored, Washington #3. Penguins star Sidney Crosby is back at practice and may play. The Over is 42-19-7 in Penguins last 68 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Washington is shaking up its lines, moving star Alex Ovechkin to the third line, a good move to throw four potent lines at Pittsburgh. The Over is 6-2-2 in Capitals last 10 games playing on 2 days rest.
Carolina Sports
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Over 8.5
Both pitchers have been well below avg to start this year. Look for a bunch of runs in this one. Over is 14-3 in Nationals last 17 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 6-0 in Velasquezs last 6 home starts.
Art Aronson
Penguins vs. Capitals
Play: Over 5
So far three of four in this series have gone below the posted number, but we’re expecting a more wide-open affair in Game 5. The Pens have a 3-1 lead and clearly the the Capitals will be pushing the pace from start to finish. Washington outshot the Pens 38-18 in Game 4 and were still saddled with a 3-2 loss. But the Capitals’ break-neck speed tonight will also create opportunities for the opportunistic Pens on the other end as well. In our professional opinion, the overall “situation” definitely lends itself to a higher-scoring affair. And note, the numbers/trends also point to a “shoot-out,” as Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of 11 this year when playing with two days rest, while Washington has seen the total go OVER in seven of 11 in the exact same position. Looks like we may have a “barn-burner” on our hands in Game 5, consider the OVER.
Marc Lawrence
Indians vs. Royals
Play: Royals -105
Edges - Royals: Vargas 4-1 last 5 home team starts in this series; and 16-6 career home team starts during May… Indians: Tomlin 8.87 ERA and 1.76 WHIP this season… With Vargas in sharp KW form with 29 K’s and 5 BB’s this season, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Martin Griffiths
Fire vs. Galaxy
Play: Over 2½
This match up between LA Galaxy and Chicago Fire looks like it will have a good splattering of goals in it.
Both sides have played eight games this season and in five of those games both sides have been involved in matches that has seen more than 2.5 goals.
Now, last time out LA had a 0-0 game, but that was needed, they had to stop the rot that had set in, they could not lose and they did not.
The Fire of course, have lost their last two games, both on the road and both going over 2.5 goals, thing is this, they did score in those games, in fact, only once this season have they failed to score.
I do expect Chicago to find the net at least once in this game and that will set up an open game, same applies to LA, I expect them to score at least once as well.
I cannot say hand on heart who will win, but I do see goals by both teams and not just one each either.
The stats point to this being an over 2.5 goal game and I agree with the stats.
Sonny Goldman
Warriors vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz +5½
The Jazz are hoping a change of venue will help. The series shifts to Vivint Smart Home Arena for Game 3 Saturday night, and both teams are expecting a raucous atmosphere. But the Jazz have to execute better, make their open shots and defend the Warriors better from the start. Or like center Rudy Gobert said, the Jazz need to "play angry."
The status for Utah point guard George Hill is still uncertain for Game 3, the Jazz say.
Rob Vinciletti
New York vs. Chicago
Play: New York +115
The Yankees are 11-2 vs winning teams, 4-1 vs leftys and have won 3 of 4 on Saturdays. They fit a nice dog system here that plays on road dogs off a road dog win scoring 4 or less runs on 10+ hits vs an opponent of a home favored loss and scoring 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits. In Inter League games this system cashes over 72%. The Yanks have J. Montgomery going and he has been solid so far this year and has a 3.00 road era. The Cubs counter with B. Anderson and he has been terrible and has a 11.70 Home era.
Doc's Sports
St. Louis at Atlanta
Play: Over 8.5
The St. Louis Cardinals are currently near the very bottom in baseball in runs scored. This is coming off of a season where they were third in the NL in runs and had several guys break out. The Cards have shown some signs of breaking out of their terrible slump with some good offensive performances against Toronto and Cincinnati last week. The Braves offense has taken a step forward in 2017, and I really like the mix of youngsters and veterans on the team. Matt Kemp has been a boon to the lineup since coming over from San Diego last season. If some of the young guys start figuring it out, this Atlanta lineup could do some serious damage. Michael Wacha and Julio Teheran are scheduled to get the ball on Saturday afternoon, and I think they'll both have their hands full. Play the OVER in our Free Play selection for Saturday. Doc's is off to a red-hot start to the 2017 MLB season with $4,800 in profit already.
Strike Point Sports
Chicago at Baltimore
Play: Baltimore
The Baltimore Orioles have been hoping and waiting for Dylan Bundy to put it all together and take that next step as a front-line starting pitcher. And with the start he is off to this season, it looks like he has. Bundy has gone at least 6 innings in each of his 5 starts this season, beating Toronto twice and Boston once. He has been fantastic at home, going 2-0 allowing just 3 earned runs over 20.1 innings pitched while holding opponents to a .194 batting average. Dylan Covey will be pitching for the White Sox, and he is still in search of his first win in the majors. He hasn't made it through 6 innings yet. However, besides a major blow out against the Yankees (5 innings, 10 H (3 HR), 8 R) he has pitched pretty well. Baltimore has been playing well at home as they are 8-3 at Camden Yards to start the season, and I expect them to pick up the win in this contest.
Teddy Davis
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Over 8½
The real value in this game lies with the total. The Phillies average 5.5 runs per game at home while the Nationals average 7.1 on the road. The Phillies have played over the total in 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8. Neither team is sending forward their best pitchers here either which adds more value to the over.
Velasquez has a home ERA of 7.05 on the season in 3 starts and has struggled against the Nationals with a 6.30 ERA. Every single game Velasquez has started this year the total has gone over!
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Saturday comes from the most exciting two minutes in sports, as I'm playing the Kentucky Derby and giving you three horses to play in your exotics, and the winner for today's 143rd Run for the Roses.
Let's start with the three horses I think you should include in your exotic bets:
Always Dreaming (5) - A splendind Florida Derby has this stud ready for a big day. Trainer Todd Pletcher has himself a horse with loads of energy, and a jockey in John Velasquez, who can control a monster like this.
Hence (8) - With no Bob Baffert horse present here, you have to pay respect to trainer Steve Asmussen. Hence ran extra fast to win the Sunland Derby, and has been incredible during training for this run. At 15-1, this is a horse catching huge value.
Classic Empire (14) - Primed for a big effort here, and will close nicely from the outside. He was the 2-year-old champion, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, and has been bred specifically for this course. It's a short price with the morning favorite, and there are probably better values with equally solid horses, but you have to include him.
Now, for your winner, I like Always Dreaming to pull away from the pack and win this one down the stretch. Fact is, he a legitimate shot at shooting from field midway through the race and closing it out for the victory. Always Dreaming is the co-second favorite at 5-1, and has won three in a row, including the Florida Derby, where he beat Gunnevera and State of Honor.
Pletcher has done wonders with this horse, and has stirred up plenty of excitement with the owners and followers - including Florida Panthers owner Vincent Viola.
Pletcher is 1 for 45 in the Derby, he has three in this one and I have to turn to the cliché "In Todd We Trust!"
4* ALWAYS DREAMING