Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Saturday comes from the most exciting two minutes in sports, as I'm playing the Kentucky Derby and giving you three horses to play in your exotics, and the winner for today's 143rd Run for the Roses.
Let's start with the three horses I think you should include in your exotic bets:
Always Dreaming (5) - A splendind Florida Derby has this stud ready for a big day. Trainer Todd Pletcher has himself a horse with loads of energy, and a jockey in John Velasquez, who can control a monster like this.
Hence (8 ) - With no Bob Baffert horse present here, you have to pay respect to trainer Steve Asmussen. Hence ran extra fast to win the Sunland Derby, and has been incredible during training for this run. At 15-1, this is a horse catching huge value.
Classic Empire (14) - Primed for a big effort here, and will close nicely from the outside. He was the 2-year-old champion, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, and has been bred specifically for this course. It's a short price with the morning favorite, and there are probably better values with equally solid horses, but you have to include him.
Now, for your winner, I like Always Dreaming to pull away from the pack and win this one down the stretch. Fact is, he a legitimate shot at shooting from field midway through the race and closing it out for the victory. Always Dreaming is the co-second favorite at 5-1, and has won three in a row, including the Florida Derby, where he beat Gunnevera and State of Honor.
Pletcher has done wonders with this horse, and has stirred up plenty of excitement with the owners and followers - including Florida Panthers owner Vincent Viola.
Pletcher is 1 for 45 in the Derby, he has three in this one and I have to turn to the cliché "In Todd We Trust!"
4* ALWAYS DREAMING
Brad Wilton
After playing a low-scoring game to open the weekend series off on Friday, look for things to return to normal for the Yankees and Cubs. "Normal" as in expect some runs to be scored in this Saturday night interleague showdown.
Even with Friday's Under, the Yankees are still 6-1 Over the total in their last 7 games, and now 17-10 Over the total for the year.
As for the Cubs, they are still 7-2 Over their last 9 games, and now 18-10 Over the total for the season.
Jordan Montgomery has made 4 starts this season, and 3 of the 4 have played Over the total, while Brett Anderson has seen each of his last 3 starts land Over the total.
After a day of goose eggs on Friday, expect crooked numbers up on the scoreboard on Saturday night.
Yankees-Cubs Over the total.
4* YANKEES-CUBS OVER
Jack Brayman
I gave you the over in the Miami-New York game last night, and they scored 15 runs. Tonight my free winner is on the Chicago Cubs.
Yes, I lost with the Cubbies yesterday, but I'm coming back with them for my complimentary play tonight. I'm big on value, and tonight the Cubs are pure value for the price being offered. Yes, the Yankees are playing very, very good baseball.
They're actually playing well byeond what was expected of them - outside of C.C. Sabathia, who is struggling. The Yankees have been playing well, up and down the lineup, especially this emergence of rookie right fielder Aaron Judge. The only trouble has been injuries, which is more impressive in them overperforming beyond expectations.
So why take the Cubbies in this one?
The due theory sticks out, and also that this is a good measuring stick in the Bronx Bombers playing at the World Champions this weekend - starting with yesterday's matinee game. The Yankees are playing a team that is a legitimate contender, and, well, a legitimate good team that will be pissed after losing yesterday.
Chicago won three of four from the Philadelphia Phillies after dropping two of three in Boston last weekend, and rode into this series on a three-game win streak. Now the Cubs will be out for revenge in this one.
I'm going to be keeping my eyes on this series closely, but I'll side with the cheap chalk in Game 2.
4* CUBS
Jeff Benton
Comp play for Saturday is the Rangers to make it 3 straight wins over the Senators.
After winning the first 2 games on home ice, Ottawa ran into a wall at Madison Square Garden, as Henrik Lundqvist has regained his confidence while Senators netminder Craig Anderson has allowed an alarming 13 goals over the last 3 games in this series!
With the Senators now pressing - just 2 goals in the last 2 games - and the Rangers looking relaxed now that they have knotted-up the series at 2-2, look for the Rangers to wrest home ice advantage away from the Senators this Saturday afternoon as they fly back home one win away from advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Go with the Rangers.
3* N.Y. RANGERS
Chris Jordan
Down 2-0, the New York Rangers have shown resiliency, and this series is tied 2-2. Now they're going to take a 3-2 lead, and back the Ottawa Senators in a corner.
The Rangers dominated at Madison Square Garden, in Games 3 and 4, led by center Oscar Lindberg, who scored three of his team's eight goals in New York. Perspective: Lindberg had just eight goals in 65 games this season.
Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist made things look routine in the back-to-back wins, stopping 48 of 50 shots, and should bring his confidence to Canada's capital, while leading his team to a road victory.
Remember, in the opening round, the Rangers won Game 6 in Montreal to seize momentum and went home to secure the series. I'm looking for an identical final of 3-2, and the Rangers to take a 3-2 series lead.
4* NY RANGERS
TREV ROGERS
Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -153
Aside from the obvious mismatch of Cole vs. Garza, the cross match of recent bullpen activity/performance by the Brewers should provide a big benefit to the Pirates.
The Brewers bullpen has pitched 23.1 innings over the last 7 games, allowing a whopping 2.31 HR's per/9 innings pitched. Overall ERA by the Milw. pen is 4.52 over the last 7 games as well.
A taxed bullpen, plus my ratings pointing to Garza as a top 4 pitcher to go against tonight, leads me to take the Pirates -153 as the FREE pick tonight.
MIKE MENASE
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks +112
As much of an Anderson fade as anything. His opponent ground ball ratio is down by about 15%, he hasn't had a quality outing yet all season. Even though Corbin is historically bad in Coors, and Anderson is historically good at Coors, i'm giving precedent to the current form each respective pitcher is in. Something is off with Anderson, while the Rockies have struggled to score against left-handed pitchers. The Rockies' bullpen is also probably still not recovered from all the work its put in, especially in extra innings against Arizona and then most recently against San Diego.
JIMMY BOYD
Nationals vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -108
I like the value here with the Phillies at basically a pick'em at home against rival Washington. I've liked what I have seen from this young Philadelphia team who has a +5 run differential, despite their 12-16 overall record. They also own a winning record at home at 7-5. The biggest thing here is the Phillies have what I feel is a significant edge on the mound, which they need against this high-powered Nationals team, who may or may not have Bryce Harper in the lineup.
Phillies are going to send out Vincent Velasquez, who is trending in the right direction with a 3.64 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in his last 3 starts. While he allowed 4 run in an earlier start against the Nationals he had 10 strikeouts in 4 innings. I like his chances of out performing Washington's A.J. Cole, who is being forced into the rotation to fill in for Joe Ross. Cole wasn't good in 8 starts last year (5.17 ERA) and has a 6.63 ERA in 19 innings with Triple-A Syracuse this season.
MIKE ANTHONY
Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics -135
Oakland continues to make better than decent contact at hitting the home run ball and they are getting their walk rate back up to a respectable level during the last most recent period of the season, Oakland has been middling this far - but they have slowly been showing some improvement. While the winning streaks are nice, and Detroit pitcher, Daniel Norris also is pitching pretty good on the season - and his K's are humming along at 23 on the season. The question entering the 2017 season was whether or not the 38 yr old Victor Martinez (27 dingers in 2016) that he enjoyed last year was real or not. We are seeing that is more than likely not.
Larry Ness
Texas vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
Texas won the AL West in 2016 with a 95-67 record but it's been a slow start in 2017 for the Rangers. Rougned Odor's two-run HR in the 13th inning last night provided Texas with a 3-1 win, its second straight coming off a four-game losing streak. Texas is now 13-17 on the season and plays the second contest of this three-game series tonight in Seattle. The Mariners opened the season 2-8 and currently have the same record as the Rangers, at 13-17.
Tonight's pitching matchup features Martin Perez (1-4, 4.26 ERA) against Chase De Jong (0-2, 11.05 ERA). Perez comes in off three staright losing starts, allowing 11 ERs on 21 hits and eight walks in 15.1 innings during that stretch (6.45 ERA). Perez's lone victory in 2017 came back on April 9 vs Oakland. He did not factor in the decision against the Mariners on April 14, when he gave up one run and six hits in five innings. He is 5-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 13 career appearances (11 starts / team is 7-4) against Seattle in his career.
De Jong is temporarily taking Felix Hernandez's spot in the rotation. Seattle's ace is on the DL and De Jong makes his second major-league start in this one. It has to go better than his first, when he allowed six runs on nine hits in just 2.2 innings on Sunday in a 12-4 loss at Cleveland. De Jong was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in March in a deal for infielder Drew Jackson and right-hander Aneurys Zabala.
De Jong's stay in the rotation may be a little more than temporary. James Paxton was just placed on the DL Friday, joining ace Felix Hernandez and prized free agent Drew Smyly. Seattle scored just one run last night but recorded 11 hits. That follows a combined 19 hits in back-to-back victories. Nelson Cruz is on a 14-game hitting streak, in which he has five HRs and 19 RBI. Perez has a history of pitching well at home but really struggling on the road. My bet is the Mariners will out-hit and out-score the Rangers in this one.
Bruce Marshall
Los Angeles at San Diego
Pick: Los Angeles -1.5
It's Clayton Kershaw on the mound against the Padres and we're getting a very fair price on the Dodgers on the Run Line. Not a big plus price, mind you, but a plus price nonetheless, and on principle alone we must recommend the Dodgers in this all-Clayton battle vs. Clayton Richard of San Diego. The Dodgers erupted late for an 8-2 win last night at Petco so bring some offensive momentum into later this afternoon.
Power Sports
Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
After a 3-4 road trip, the Bucs returned home to PNC Park last night and shut out the Brew Crew, 4-0. I feel a similar result is in store today w/ Gerrit Cole starting. Yes, Cole has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, but his ERA (1.89) and WHIP (0.842) are both very good during that stretch. He certainly can't be blames for his offense scoring a total of only four times in those three games. They should certainly score at lot more tonight at the expense of Matt Garza.
Milwaukee is just 8-16 the L3 seasons after being shutout the previous game. They had the same number of hits as Pittsburgh did last night, but the difference was the Pirates being able to string a few together in the fourth. It's surprising to see the Brewers at 8-5 on the road thus far, but I don't expect that record to last. Garza has a 4.43 career ERA vs. Pittsburgh, in 14 starts. Yes, the team has won both of his 2017 starts so far, but both were at home and against Cincinnati and Atlanta.
Since a rough outing to start the year in Boston, Cole has made it five straight quality starts, so he's certainly in good form. He's logged 7 or more K's in each of his L3 starts. He's top 10 among NL starters in WHIP. If he continues to pitch the way he has, the wins will come and I really like the setup here facing a team that failed to score a single run yesterday.
Bob Balfe
Rangers/Mariners Over 8.5
Texas has a great number of RBI’s against right handed pitching and Seattle a great number against left handed pitching. The pitchers in this game are nothing to write home about and this looks almost too good to be true with the total being set this low. Look for a ton of runs.
Harry Bondi
PHILADELPHIA -110 over Washington
Phillies are in a bad funk right now but we expect them to get back on track today against Washington’s AJ Cole, who is being called up from the minors to make today’s start. Cole has struggled with his command at Triple A Syracuse where he has walked 10 in 19 innings while posting a 6.63 ERA. Philadelphia’s Vince Velazquez is coming off his most effective start of the season and we expect the Phillies, who have won 5 of their last 6 at home, to explode against the triple A pitcher.
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City +104
Kansas City is back home where it is 8-7, including Friday's 3-1 victory, compared to 2-11 on the road. The Royals have their best pitcher on the mound in Jason Vargas, who is 4-1 with a 1.42 ERA. The Royals have won four of his five starts, including Monday's 6-1 win over the White Sox when the left-hander gave up a run and five hits in six innings. Vargas has walked only five batters in 31 innings this year and struck out 29. He also has been unbeatable at home where is 3-0 with with a microscopic 0.44 ERA. Josh Tomlin has been getting shelled for the Indians even though his team bailed him out his last start with a 12-4 win. He did allow four runs and eight hits in five innings to raise his ERA to 8.87 for the season despite the win. Kansas City has won 19 of Vargas' last 26 home starts dating to last year.