SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI -1½ +168 over San Francisco
Amir Garrett is a big lefty that’s still new to pitching (3rd season on the mound). His control last year was not great and thus, the move to AAA in the 2nd half proved to be a challenge, as his big fastball wasn't generating enough strikeouts. The synopsis after last year was that he was just a few adjustments away from reaching the big leagues and here we are. Garrett has made five starts and thrown 30 innings. Over that span, he has four pure quality starts with a BB/K split of 10/26. Garrett has a heavy fastball that works away from the batter. His slider is another tool that is quickly developing into a plus offering, and his changeup has seen marked improvement too. Garrett quickly moved up the minor league ladder and he’s quickly improving in every area. He has an elite groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 51%/16%/34%. He’s intelligent on the mound and has a wealth of pure talent. It’s almost scary to think that he’s been pitching for just three years after starting his sports career playing basketball for St. John's University before switching to baseball. For all of you in keeper fantasy leagues, Garrett is a major target you should be gunning for. For this purpose, however, he’s facing a weak hitting team with a horrible rookie starting.
Ty Blach comes in with a 2.55 ERA after two starts and seven relief appearances covering 18 innings, but it’s a pure luck-driven number that is not sustainable. The 6-2, 200-pound Blach surprised many when he outdueled Clayton Kershaw to lock up a post-season berth for the Giants last year. Despite that, he lost out to Matt Cain for a spot in the rotation as the teams’ #5 starter. Frankly, that’s all one needs to know because losing out to Cain is not easy. In 18 innings, Blach has walked six batters but only struck out five. He has a 3% swing and miss rate so he’s at the mercy of batted balls in play. His xERA is 7.22, which is MLB’s worst mark among pitchers with 15 or more innings. Blach is a career minor leaguer with 600 innings pitched in the minors, where he struck out just 414 and posted an oppBA of .278. These starters that have been riding buses for years have some appeal. They come in rather relaxed with nothing to lose. They have seen everything and experienced everything and just keep plodding along. However, Blach’s ERA is a complete mirage that is going to get blown up. Aside from that, the Giants have very little going for them while the Reds are loaded with talent that looks completely legit in the early going.e’s getting murdered by his brutal skills and we’re going to fade him each and every time he starts until he starts no more.
OAKLAND -1½ +150 over Detroit
We’re not going to go into a lot of detail regarding Jesse Hahn because this wager is not about him. It is worth noting that Hahn is having a decent year thus far and has had great success versus the Tigers in the past with an oppBA of just .197 against current Tigers. However, our focus here is fading Jordan Zimmermann, a pitcher with a dead arm that we’ve been fading for quite some time now.
Zimmermann has one quality start in five tries. He had the hope of a rebound in 2017 after a strong spring but so far, that has been far from the case (6.18 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) and his skills give zero reasons for optimism. Zimmerman has a lousy BB/K split of 9/16 in 28 frames. His groundball rate is the lowest in the majors (24%) among pitchers with four or more starts and he’s accomplished this without bad luck. Zimmermann’s hit and strand rate are right around league average so he’s not getting murdered there. He’s getting murdered by his brutal skills and we’re going to fade him each and every time he starts until he starts no more.
Arizona -1½ +195 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
5-7 +3.88 units
SPORTS WAGERS
Kentucky Derby
#2 Thunder Snow
By all accounts, it appears that the track will be sloppy, muddy or heavy today and that absolutely makes a difference. The Kentucky Derby is a grueling 1 1/4 miles for the best 3-year-old colts in the work. It is a test of pedigree, speed and endurance and the wet conditions makes things a lot more interesting.
This is as wide-open a Run for the Roses as we have seen in years, with the favorite likely to go off in the 4-1 to 5-1 range – if not a higher price than that. Throw in the possibility of a wet track with variable amounts of rain that started on Thursday and is still going on now, and we’re looking at a pretty chaotic picture. As value bettors, we wouldn’t want it any other way. Thus, we’re looking for a couple of bombs with a legit chance of winning. These selections are based on a sloppy track:
#2, Thunder Snow (20-1)
An Irish-bred by an Australian sire out of an English-bred dam now headed for a start in Kentucky by way of Dubai – this colt certainly adds some international flavor to the race. He is an extremely talented turf horse, having won a Group 1 in France last fall by five lengths. The switch to dirt at Meydan did not seem to faze him, as he wore down the highly regarded Epicharis to take the UAE Derby, despite drifting from the whip in the stretch. By virtue of winning that race, he is the only horse in this year’s Derby to have raced and won beyond nine furlongs. We’ve seen Meydan dirt form translate to American dirt success in recent years, but the Derby is a very tricky race to win, and his rider is inexperienced with American racing. The public likely overlook him because a European Horse hasn’t won in 100 years but neither did the Cubbies prior to last year, right? Again, he’s a Group I winner in France, and the recent UAE Derby winner is riding a three-race winning streak and is easily the best derby horse to ship from Dubai. He’ll be likely sitting mid-pack and if traffic doesn’t hinder his path, he should give us a great run for our money.
#1 Lookin at Lee (20-1)
Lookin at Lee rallied from far back when he finished third best in the Arkansas Derby and he has improved in each of his three races this season. He was all over the track in an eventful run through the stretch in the aforementioned Arkansas Derby and might have won had his rider been able to keep a straight path. He has been steadily improving while keeping company with the best in his division. Distance should not be an issue, but he absolutely needs a fast and contested pace to have a chance. Make no mistake that Lookin at Lee will be coming from the back so if you like front runners, he’s not your horse. We prefer horses to rally from off the pace and pick em off one at a time. If he’s steady and the pace is quick, he’s dangerous as hell. Use in the exotics.
Our 5 horse trifecta box for this race is going to be 1-2-14-15 and 19. Good luck. We’ll be it for 50 cents and the total cost, therefore, will be $30. We’ll also bet Thunder Snow to win and throw him in exactors for 1st and 2nd with the aforementioned other four horses. GOOD LUCK and enjoy the race.
BRANDON LEE
San Francisco at Cincinnati
Play: San Francisco +111
San Francisco is worth a look here as an underdog against the Reds on Saturday. The Giants were embarrassed in last night's 13-3 win for Cincinnati and I look for them to bounce back in game 2. While the Reds have won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6, they will face a left-handed starter for the first time since facing Lester back on 4/21. Cincinnati is only averaging 3.3 runs/game and have a mere .187 team batting average against left-handed starters this season. While the Giants offense only managed 3 runs last night, they had combined for 23 hits in their previous two games and I look for them to score enough here to get the victory.
JACK JONES
New York vs. Chicago
Play: New York +122
The New York Yankees have been one of the most improved teams in baseball this season. They are off to an 18-9 start this year behind a lineup that is hitting .276 and scoring 5.6 runs per game, including .280 and 5.8 runs per game against left-handed starters.
The Yankees should stay red hot at the plate against Chicago's worst starter in Brett Anderson tonight. The left-hander is 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in five starts, including 1-1 with an 11.70 ERA in three home starts. Anderson has never beaten the Yankees, going 0-5 with a 6.53 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in five career starts against them.
Jordan Montgomery has held his own in the Yankees' rotation this year. He has gone 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in four starts with 23 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings. I think he will surely outduel Anderson in this game Saturday.
The Yankees are 8-1 in thier last nine games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 17-5 in its last 22 games overall. The Cubs are 5-12 in their last 17 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter. Chicago is 1-6 in its last seven vs. AL East opponents.
KEN LOWDEN
Warriors -6
Golden State (73-15) has now won 21 of their last 22 games and even on their off nights, they are simply better than their opponents, especially the Utah Jazz who they have beaten by 23 points combined in the first 2 games of this series. The Golden State Warriors have not cared where the games were being played for a few years now, this includes winning their last 7 games as the away team. Golden State is yet to lose in the Playoffs this season (6-0) after sweeping Portland in round 1, now on their way to doing the same thing to Utah in round 2.
This Warriors attack is obviously led by Stephen Curry, who went 5-8 shooting behind the 3-point line in game 2. With him shooting the ball this well, the Warriors are unstoppable. Utah has now lost 5 of their last 8 games and are already worn down from their first round series against the Los Angeles Clippers, where the series had to go the distance before Utah could finally move on to round 2, after 7 games. Take the better team in this matchup.
Buster Sports
Marlins at Mets
Play: Over 9
The Mets and Miami opened their 3 game series in New York with a high scoring 8-7 Mets victory and we see a bunch of runs scoring again tonight. Tonight's starters are for Miami RH Odrisamer Despaigne (2016: 0-2, 5.93 ERA) and he faces the Mets RH Robert Gsellman (1-2, 6.75 ERA). Despaigne was recalled from Triple-A New Orleans as the Marlins put Chen on the DL with arm fatigue. Despaigne came over to Miami late in September but did pitch against these Mets on September 27th. In that game he pitched 1 1/3 inning of relief giving up 3 runs. As for Gsellman he has allowed 11 runs in 9 2/3 innings in the two games against the Marlins this year. Another long night for both pitching staffs in New York. Backing our selection is the fact that the Over is 11-1 in the Mets last 12 vs. a team with a losing record and the fact that the Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between the clubs.
The Prez
Toronto at Tampa Bay
Play: Toronto +107
The rebounding Toronto Blue Jays take on the Tampa Bay Rays in a Saturday afternoon event from the Trop with first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET in Tampa, Florida.
The Jays send Marco Estrada to the hill today and the Toronto right-hander is coming off an impressive outing against the New York Yankees. Estrada has turned in four straight strong turns, in fact. The Jays right-hander held the Bronx Bombers to just seven singles and a single run over seven innings, recording 5 K's without a walk on 12 swinging strikes.
Estrada has increased his velocity this season and his 12 mph differential between his fastball and change-up has moved him up the starting pitching rankings in the American league. Estrada has returned to the form that sports an elite 34.5% chase rate and 12.9% swinging strike percentage. The Jays starter has also increased his ground ball ratio by 8 percent this season over his career number.
Jake Odorizzi will make his second start since returning from the disabled list on Saturday and this variable alone makes the Tampa starter a play against. The trend, a second turn off the disabled list, for a starting pitcher that throws to contact, offers overwhelming evidence to fade.
Odorizzi doesn't miss enough bats and has an average slash line this season, mediocre at best, of .300/.350/.760. When Odorizzi is successful he is creating heavy fly balls but he has yet to outperform his FIP in each of the last two seasons and today's contest against the Rays and Estrada is nothing short of an uphill battle. Odorizzi is allowing a ridiculously high 40 percent hard contact rate this year after a similar ratio (38%) in 2016.
Neil The Greek
Dodgers vs. Padres
Play: Dodgers -143
Maybe I've just been doing this for way too long, but something is fishy with this line, with the Dodgers being only a small favorite even on the road, with Kershaw pitching. But I will be a donkey here, and take the Dodgers anyways. I think there is too much value here, getting LA at such a small favorite with him throwing.
Anthony Michael
Warriors -5
I know the game 3 theory that if the home team wins games 1 and 2 the team down 0-2 at home wins game 3 but the Warriors can easily break that mold here. Golden State is 2-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs and they are 15-5-1 ATS their last 21 games overall. The Jazz have only covered 1 of their last 8 Saturday games and they are only 1-2 ATS at home in the playoffs. Take the Warriors to get this win and cover here.
JOHN MARTIN
Astros vs. Angels
Play: Astros -119
The Houston Astros are certainly fulfilling their potential through the first month-plus of the season. They have gone 20-10 behind a dominant rotation, a dominant bullpen and a lineup that is hitting .278 while scoring 4.9 runs per game. The Astros have put up 5.7 runs per game on the road this year. Lance McCullers is one of the bright young starters in the game, going 2-1 with a 4.08 ERA in six starts with 46 K's in 35 1/3 innings. McCullers has owned the Angels to the tune of a 3-1 record and a 1.79 ERA over seven starts in his career. The Astros are 6-0 in McCullers' last six starts vs. a team with a losing record.
MIKE MENASE
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Diamondbacks +112
This is as much of an Anderson fade as anything. His opponent ground ball ratio is down by about 15%. His BB/9 rate is up from 2.20 to 3.25 and his HR/9 rate is up from .94 to 2.67. He hasn't had a quality outing yet all season as he has really struggled to gain command over the plate. He has left pitches in dangerous spots for batters to pounce on and they have taken advantage, as his fip is 6.50 right now, compared to 3.59 last season. Even though Corbin is historically bad in Coors, and Anderson is historically good at Coors, i'm giving precedent to the current form each respective pitcher is in. The current form of Anderson is what gives this current line its value. Something is off with Anderson, while the Rockies have struggled to score against left-handed pitchers. In three games against teams led by southpaw starters (Ryu, Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez respectively), they have managed just eleven runs, three of them against bullpen relievers. They did score 12 against a Moore-led Giants squad, but six of those came against the bullpen. Corbin already showed last week that he can pitch against the Rockies and the Diamondbacks' bullpen has improved to become about equal with Colorado in terms of era, in the middle of the pack. The Rockies' bullpen is also probably still not recovered from all the work its put in, especially in extra innings against Arizona and then most recently against San Diego. They will want to get long innings from Anderson, who likely won't be able to help them out today. The wrong team is favored here.
DAVE PRICE
Detroit vs. Oakland
Play: Detroit +128
We're getting the far superior lineup at a nice underdog price here Saturday. The Detroit Tigers are putting up 5.0 runs per game on the season, and 5.6 per against right-handed starters. The A's are scoring 3.7 runs per game on the year and 3.4 per game against right-handed starters. That big difference more than makes up for the advantage the A's have on the mound in this game. Jesse Hahn has pitched much better than Jordan Zimmerman in 2017, but I'm not sold that he is this much better. Zimmerman faced the A's last season and gave up just 1 earned run in 6 2/3 innings of a 7-3 Tigers victory. Oakland is 1-13 in home games after 4 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 29-9 after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The A's are 1-11 vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. Oakland is 2-9 in its last 11 games overall.