DAVE COKIN
RAYS AT ORIOLES
PLAY: RAYS -110
The Orioles are off to a great start, and the surprise out of the opening week has been their starting pitching. The O’s starters have surrendered only three earned runs over 19 innings of work.
I don’t expect that to continue as the Baltimore rotation appears to be lack anything resembling a stopper, and the back end looks extremely dicey. One of those very iffy starters is slated here, with well-traveled Vance Worley scheduled to take the mound. There’s not much question the Orioles bullpen is a good one. But getting to the pen with shaky starters such as Worley is the prime reason most models have the Orioles as no better than a .500 team this season.
Tampa Bay also has some weaknesses, but theirs are mostly with the sticks. Jake Odorizzi, today’s scheduled starter, established himself as a solid starting pitcher last season. Odorizzi will probably never develop into an ace as he’s pretty much a six-inning type, but he should be reliable enough to post mostly quality starts.
I wouldn’t call this a value play on Tampa Bay. In fact, one might make a case that with the price where it is, the allure of betting on the undefeated hosts is pretty compelling.
But my early season plays are mostly projection based, and when I can get more than a half run edge on the starting pitchers at a small chalk or underdog price, I’ll usually go ahead with it. That’s the case here as I have Odorizzi roughly 0.6 runs superior to Worley.
I would not argue against splitting this into a first half and full game combo. From the seventh inning on, Baltimore has the advantage thanks to their superior bullpen. But in any event, I’m going to trust the starting pitching data here and will side with Odorizzi and the Rays to deal the Birds their first defeat of the new season.
Bruce Marshall
Utah -6
Utah continues to hang in the West playoff mix and can ill afford a bad loss to a team like Denver at this very late stage of the season. Jazz took care of business vs. Nuggets in first three meetings, all played at a Utah pace and not coming close to an "over" result in any of the games. Denver has also been confounded by the Utah defense, which has held Nuggets to no better than 39% FG shooting in any of the three games. Jazz also got back G Alec Burks from injury, giving the offense a needed jolt and an extra slasher to attack the paint. Utah digging in the past month, covering 11 of last 15, though it blew a late lead in OT loss vs. Clippers on Friday. That result helps keep Jazz extra-focused at Pepsi Center.
Stephen Nover
White Sox -124
I find Jose Quintana one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. The lefty went 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in five September starts and he continued hot in his first start this season giving up two runs with seven strikeouts and no walks in 5 2/3 innings in a 5-4 road win against Oakland this past Tuesday.
Now Quintana is home against Cleveland, a team he is 5-1 against lifetime with a 2.58 ERA. Quintana dominated the Indians last season going 2-1 with a 0.82 ERA in three games. Michael Brantley is the one Cleveland player who's had success against Quintana, but he's out with a shoulder injury.
Indians starter Josh Tomlin looked good after returning from shoulder surgery in mid-August going 7-2 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts last season. Tomlin, though, last pitched on March 29 in spring training. So it has been 11 days between starts for him. That's too much.
Jimmy Boyd
Cubs -170
I don't like laying this much juice often, but I'm more than willing to in this spot. The Cubs haven't had any problem living up to the hype, as they are off to a 4-1 start after taking down Greinke and the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Hard to see Chicago losing the final with their ace on the mound.
Arrieta was on point in his first start against the Angels on the road. He allowed just 2 hits over 7 innings of work. He made two starts against the Diamondbacks last year and allowed just 3 runs on 11 hits with 14 strikeouts in the two combined. The Cubs simply don't have to put up a big number here to get a win.
However, Chicago's offense has started strong and will get to go up against Shelby Miller, who was hit hard in his first start. Miller allowed 6 runs on 8 hits with just 2 strikeouts in 6 innings of work. I just don' see Miller doing enough here to keep this game close. If you don't want to lay this much juice, I recommend taking the Cubs on the run line. Either way.
Brandon Lee
White Sox -116
I really like Chicago at this price at home against a division rival. The White Sox will give the ball to Jose Quintana, who looked sharp in his first outing, allowing just 2 runs with 7 strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings of work. Cleveland on the other hand will be sending out Josh Tomlin, who will be making his 2016 debut. The Indians haven't exactly had much luck against Quintana. In fact, he's 5-1 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.189 WHIP in 12 career starts against Cleveland.
Bob Harvey
Golden St at San Antonio
Play: Golden St +5½
The Golden State Warriors are two games away from setting the NBA record for most victories in a season. The Warriors need to beat the second-best team in the league, the San Antonio Spurs, to tie the record and then beat Memphis in their season finale to enter the record books. Tonight the Warriors and Spurs, in perhaps a Western Conference finals preview meet at the AT&T Center.
Golden State (71-9, 43-35 ATS) rallied late Saturday to beat Memphis 100-99, to set up a monumental matchup against San Antonio. The Warriors finished on an 8-2 run to beat the Grizzlies for their 71ST victory of the season and keeping alive their chance of equaling an NBA-record 73 victories. However, getting #72 presents the biggest challenge of the year for the defending champions.
San Antonio (65-14, 43-36 ATS) is out to make history of its own. A victory tonight would make them the first team in league history with a perfect home record. They’ll be facing a Warriors team has dropped an incredible 33 straight games at the AT&T Center. The two Western Conference powers are meeting for the second time in four days, with the Warriors holding serve at home in a 112-101 triumph on Thursday.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in San Antonio. The Warriors are 4-0 to the UNDER in their past four overall.
Golden State is 8-20 ATS in the last 28 series meetings in San Antonio. The Spurs are 0-5 vs. the number in their past five overall.
Martin Griffiths
Schalke vs. Borussia Dortmund
Play: Schalke PK½+118
A North Rhine-Westphalia derby in Germany between bitter rivals Schalke and Borussia Dortmund and as with most local derbies the best team does not always win.
On paper Dortmund are clearly the better team, they are a good 23 points better off than Schalke in the Bundesliga this season, they have a fairly decent away record and are in very good form.
For their part, Schalke are not in bad form either, they have lost twice in their last six and at home have a decent enough record considering their league position.
Head to head between these two sides when played at Schalke are fairly even, certainly over the last few seasons with three wins each since 2010, so why do I fancy Schalke not to lose this game today.
Well, Dortmund have a huge game in midweek against Liverpool in the second leg of the Europa League to look forward to, there is a good chance they will rest some of their critical players and having played only last Thursday they will not be as fresh as Schalke will be in what will no doubt be a tough passionate game.
I am not saying Schalke will win, they may well do, what I am saying is that I do not see them losing for the reasons stated above, they are fresher, they do not have their minds on a massive game next week and they are at home.
Will Rogers
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8
The Chicago Cubs are off to a fantastic start, coming into Sunday's series finale in Arizona as winners of four of their first five games. They hung on to win last night's game by a score of 4-2, and lead the series 2-1. With Jake Arrieta on the mound this afternoon, I think we could see another low scoring battle in the desert.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Arrieta couldn't have been any sharper in his season debut, going seven innings, allowing just two hits while fanning six in a 9-0 win over the Angels. He owned the Diamondbacks last year, going 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts. He was also dominant on the road, going a staggering 13-1 with a 1.60 ERA in 18 starts. Arizona will send Shelby Miller to the mound, looking to bounce back from a very disappointing debut. The right-hander posted a 2.39 ERA in nine starts in day games in 2015.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Arizona lineup has really struggled to solve Arrieta, hitting a combined .190 against him in 63 at bats. Slugger Paul Goldchmidt is just 1-for-7 with four strikeouts.
3. X-Factor - The under is 13-5-2 in Cubs last 20 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Jim Feist
Raptors vs. Knicks
Play: Under 195
Toronto plays its 7th road game over the last 11 contests. The Raptors are a strong defensive team, No. 4 in the NBA in points allowed, 7-2 under the total against the Eastern Conference. Toronto is all but locked into the No. 2 slot in the East. They face a New York squad that is not good on offense (No. 26 in points scored) but No. 11 in in points allowed. New York is 14-3 under the total at home and on a 24-9 run under overall. They come off a win over the defenseless 76ers and the under is 18-5 in the Knicks last 23 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
MMA OddsBreaker
Whiteford v Martins
Pick: Whiteford
Robert Whiteford has three weaknesses: durable opponents, great ground fighters and opponents with strong conditioning. Lucas Martin's possesses none of those traits. In a stand-up brawl, Whiteford will likely come out on the winning side and that's exactly the type of Fight I'm expecting. Whiteford is in a good position to win convincingly.
Marc Lawrence
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks
Edges - Bucks: 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS last 8 games in this series; and 19-7 ATS off BB losses this season. Sixers: 0-15 SU on Sundays and 7-11-1 ATS home after facing the Knicks. With that look for Philadelphia to fall to 8-14 ATS in Last Home Games here today. We recommend a 1* play on Milwaukee.
Larry Ness
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals
Joe Ross was called up in June and July last season, as Washington was hoping to bridge a gap until Stephen Strasburg was healthy. Anything the 22-year-old gave the Nationals was a bonus and while Washington’s season tanked, don’t blame Ross. He was 5-5 with a 3.64 ERA in 16 appearances (13 starts), including 4-2 with a 2.44 ERA and a 37-to-7 KW ratio in nine home appearances (seven starts). With Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister gone, Ross is being counted on as a regular part of the rotation here in 2016. Ross had a 2.79 ERA in four spring outings before missing 12 days with a bruised heel after being hit by a line drive. He returned on April 2 for his final tune-up but gave up eight runs and 12 hits (including two HRs) in five innings, ending the spring with a 6.75 ERA and .394 opponent batting average. "Big innings," Ross said. "I feel like I've got to work a little bit on getting out of those jams with runners on and less than two outs."
Ross will make his 2016 debut here vs Miami’s Tom Koehler. He’s made 32 and 31 starts the last two seasons and his 378.2 innings over that time for the Marlins are 169.1 more than next-best and since-departed Henderson Alvarez. He had a 4.05 spring ERA, right in line with his 4.08 last season with an 11-14 record in 31 starts and one relief effort (he was 10-10 with a 3.81 ERA in 2014). "I feel good, strong, healthy, that's the most important thing," Koehler told MLB's official website. "I like where my stuff is right now. I feel like if I go into those games with a good mix, and a good plan, we should be successful."
The Marlins struggled vs right-handers last year, going 57-72 overall, including 7-14 in road day games. As noted above, Ross pitched well here in Washington as a rookie, while Koehler has had ZERO success in Nationals Park. He’s is 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA, his worst in any park where he's made more than two starts. Home team is the play.
Oskeim Sports
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox
Chicago southpaw Jose Quintana is one of the most consistent starting pitchers in the Majors, posting an ERA under 3.50 over the last three years together with a 14.5% strikeout minus walk rate (38th best ). In 2013, Quintana posted a 3.51 ERA and 3.82 FIP; in 2014, he posted a 3.32 ERA and 2.81 FIP; and in 2015, he posted a 3.36 ERA and 3.18 FIP. The 27-year-old's SIERA has also been remarkably consistent over the past three years: 3.85, 3.50 and 3.62. Quintana also finished the 2015 campaign in excellent form, going 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a 4.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five starts in September. The talented left-hander is coming off a solid start in his season-opener, limiting the Athletics to two runs over 5 2/3-innings of work (7/0 K/BB). Quintana is also 5-1 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in twelve career starts against the Indians, including limiting Cleveland to just two earned runs in 22 innings pitched last season (3 starts, 22 IP, 18 H, 18 K, 6BB, 0.82 ERA). Quintana's counterpart, Josh Tomlin, possesses elite command and control as evidenced by his 3% walk rate over the last two years. However, the right-hander gives up a lot of fly balls and his 15% home run per fly ball rate since 2013 is the fourth highest in baseball over that span. After being named Cleveland's fifth starter to open the season, Tomlin has not pitched since March 29 due to a series of weather-related postponements. From a technical standpoint, Cleveland is a money-burning 19-33 (-18.9 units) in the month of April over the last three seasons and 33-44 (-20.1 units) versus division foes over the last two seasons, while the home team is 11-4 in home plate umpire Tony Randazzo's last fifteen games behind the plate (9-4 L/13 games involving Chicago). Finally, entering Saturday's game, Chicago's bullpen owned a 2.03 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 13.3 inning of work (7 H, 14 K). Take the White Sox behind one of the most reliable starting pitchers in baseball and invest with confidence.
Teddy Davis
Pirates -120
I like the value we are getting with the Pirates who just lost their game of the season yesterday. Locke is taking the mound who I believe will have a nice bounce back year this season. The main reason for the pick is that the Reds are sending a kid to the mound making his major league debut. Melville wasn't even very impressive in Triple A with a 7-10 record and a 4.63 ERA.
Jack Jones
Utah Jazz -6
The Utah Jazz lead the Houston Rockets by just one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. It's safe to say that they'll be laying it all on the line to get a victory today against the Denver Nuggets.
The Jazz are 10-5 in their last 15 games overall. Their last three losses have come to Golden State (in OT), San Antonio (by 2) and the LA Clippers (by 3). Those are three of the top four teams in the conference, so they'll be glad to face a Western Conference bottom feeder like Denver here.
The Nuggets are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their two wins have come against the banged-up Grizzlies and a San Antonio team that rested its starters. All five losses during this stretch came by 6 points or more.
The Jazz are 4-0 in their last four meetings with the Nuggets, and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Denver. Utah is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Nuggets are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.