Aaron Toller
Blue Jays -140
Toronto is off to a slow start win wise but that has been due to their pitching with Marco Estrada taking the hill, arguable there best pitcher down the stretch last year. Look for Toronto to get back in the win column on like them on the run line -1.5 as well
Brad Diamond
Phillies +1½ +106
On Twitter yesterday we guesstimated that the Phillies would defeat the Mets, based on another young prospect being filtered in the Philadelphia farm system (FINALLY!). Today, taking the runs approach with RHP Jeremy Hellickson who did not allow an earned run in the opener with six solid innings of work adding 6 strikeouts all versus Cincinnati. Ace Matt Harvey hits the bump for the Mets showing with a dominating 6-1 mark against the Phillies combined with a nice 2.44 ERA. At home last season Harvey was 12-8 with a 2.05 ERA. Still, we find conflicting information that brings New York into negative sets of 0-5 in Sunday editions and 2-8 versus the National League East.
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas (5 innings) -105
Keep your eye on Martin Perez. Perez went 3-6 with a 4.46 ERA in 79 innings for the Rangers last year so his stock is not very high. He returned from TJS mid-season, and while his K-rate and xERA were forgettable, there are two reasons for optimism: 1) Post-injury first-pitch strike rate rose to elite ranks, 2) Heavy groundball lean% lean applied to every pitch, which is rare. Elements of a breakout are aligning here for Perez but this one is all about fading Jered Weaver.
The Angels have one win in five games and now everyone in that organization will be plugging their nose in this one and hoping for the best. At this point, it’s safe to call it a spring tradition: Eyebrows get raised in response to Jered Weaver‘s underwhelming velocity, and Weaver tells the media he doesn’t care. There’s nothing wrong with Weaver’s reaction, because he is more of a command pitcher, and he knows he’ll be fine if he locates. Weaver must be beyond tired of this repeating conversation, but from the outside, it’s significant that Weaver’s fastball continues to surprise, because it just keeps getting slower more quickly than it probably ought to.The league-average fastball has gotten harder over time. You know that. But while we expect velocity to decline for pitchers as they age, Weaver’s curve has gotten weird. He lost more than a mile between 2011 and 2012. He lost more than a mile again between 2012 and 2013. And then last year, he lost three miles. He lost even more after returning from a DL stint. This isn’t the kind of thing Weaver can just shrug off. This is kind of a big deal, whether Weaver wants to admit it or not. Now there’s another season coming. Weaver is a healthy member of the Angels rotation. The league will probably continue to throw harder, and based on recent historical trends, we might expect its average at about 91.9 mph. As for Weaver? Weaver isn’t going to average that.
In his first spring inning game, Weaver did not throw a pitch faster than 83 mph but he did strike out Dexter Fowler and Jason Heyward. In his next spring game,Weaver was topping out at 80 mph in two innings. He threw a 78-mph fastball that Austin Barnes hit for a HR. In his last inning, Weaver worked all the way up to 81. If we were to take this as his ability now, we’re looking at yet another velocity drop, and a fairly big one, for a pitcher who seemingly didn’t have much left to lose.
What we had last year was a Jered Weaver whose fastball averaged 83.3. It was down from that in the second half. What we might have now is a Jered Weaver whose fastball averages 80 or 81. Maybe he’ll work up from this a little bit, who knows, but it would kind of fit the trend. This has gotten extreme. Weaver’s spring was a disaster. We now get to watch him and try to track just how slow you can throw and still succeed. There were plenty of negative signs from Weaver’s 2015. He had a career-low strikeout rate, and a career-high ERA. Batters pulled the ball almost half the time they hit it. By run value, Weaver nearly had the least-valuable fastball in the game, which shouldn’t be a surprise. Jered Weaver is about to be one of the slowest-throwing starters in recent memory. He doesn’t have a knuckleball, and his favored arm is the right one (so he can’t be called a crafty lefty). Weaver would tell you this stuff isn’t important, as long as he has his command. We don’t even know if he knows whether he’s to be trusted. So, why is he even in the rotation? We think you know the answer to that because we talk about it often. Weaver has a job because everything is about money and the Halos will pay this stiff 18.2 million this season. The Angels would rather lose games than pay Weaver to sit and that provides us with opportunity. The Angels couldn't care less if Weaver gets humiliated and neither could Weaver himself. It's all about the money.
ATLANTA (5 innings) +155
Williams Perez went 7-6 with a 4.78 ERA in 116.2 innings for the Braves last season. Perez stepped into the rotation in mid-May and posted a 1.50 ERA in his first six games started. It didn't last. One could blame his second half strand % correction for some of it but a futile command and allowing tons of hard contact is never a good combo. Perez has a quality groundball lean, but otherwise, no solid indicator(s) of future upside. That said, this one has nothing to do with backing Perez and everything to do with fading Adam Wainwright. We’ll hope that Perez can hang in for five innings and allow two runs or less.
Adam Wainwright was saddled with a disaster in his first start of the season. He walked three batters, struck out three and allowed three runs in six innings. However, his xERA was 5.24 and even that is flattering because balls were hit hard off of him all day. Today, Wainwright will be at Atlanta facing a Braves team that hit him well in two games last year. After last season’s injury-riddled campaign, an iffy spring and a disaster in his first start of the year, Wainwright is a pure poor gamble for the time being spotting a price like this. You are paying for Wainwright's past here but pitchers lose it and we have not seen a single indication that Wainwright is about to get it back. Win, lose or draw, the price on Wainwright here is insane so now would be the time to sell high on him before the market wakes up to how bad his form is.
Boston +132 over TORONTO
We’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that Steven Wright is a solid investment because he’s not. Wright posted a 4.09 ERA in 73 innings for the Red Sox last season. He’s 31 years old and some might consider him another late-bloomer with a knuckler. He is indeed a knuckler but we’re not so sure he’s a late bloomer. Wright held his own but his inability to get ahead in the count and his fly-ball tilt might've gotten him if a concussion during batting practice hadn't. Could be "Wakefield Lite," but that's not exactly a strong selling point. Thing is, we’re not asking Wright to thrive here. We’re asking him to hold the fort against a Jays’ team that is on the verge of getting swept in their season opening series at home. Boston is feeling great and they’ll carry all that momentum and no pressure whatsoever into this finale while the Blue Jays are starting to scratch their collective heads. Furthermore, if the pens end up deciding this one, give the Red Sox a huge edge.
What we know for sure is that Marco Estrada is WAY overvalued. We’ll call it a rare sighting of the fabled "Career-best performance with career-worst skills." Estrada’s hit% and strand% did the heavy lifting last season. Nearly half his metrics are in a steady decline. There's a dangerous level of disconnect between his 2015 return on investment and xERA, and someone's gonna (over) pay the price. Don't let it be you. Estrada's xERA sticks out as a major red flag. A miniscule hit % combined with career-best strand % and hr/f to deflate his surface ERA. Not happening again folks. Fade this stiff often and watch the returns come in.
N.Y. Yankees +102 over DETROIT
Justin Verlander Act II. After spending the first 2½ months of 2015 on the DL with a triceps strain, Justin Verlander looked rusty five starts into the season. However, the former MVP and Cy Young award winner soon found his footing and posted a 2.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP after the All Star break. That’s nice but 2011-12 Verlander isn't coming back. Verlander’s ball% and first-pitch strike rate do not support his elite second half command. Verlander was all over the place in his first start of the year with a 48% first-pitch strike rate.
Verlander’s second half ERA, WHIP, and command are vintage but they were aided by a slightly fortunate hit% (27%), control, and hr/9. His xERA (4.24) provides perspective and helps keep future expectations realistic. Working up in the zone more with his fastball increased his whiffs and may also be the reason for his career-high fly-ball% in 2015. In his first start this year, Verlander’s groundball/fly-ball split was 25%/56%. Verlander’s reduced velocity gives him less margin for error and might end up nudging hr/9 above 1.0. At age 33, and with a lot of mileage on his right arm, Act II isn’t nearly as good as Act I and a healthy Verlander isn’t nearly as good as a healthy Masahiro Tanaka either.
The lack of a big off-season pickup means that Tanaka will again be called on to be the Yankees’ staff ace. After missing a good part of 2014 with elbow issues, he struggled with forearm, wrist, and hamstring issues in 2015.When healthy, however, Tanaka is the straight goods. His ERA took a hit in 2015, mostly due to a freakish hr/f. Tanaka saw a drop in his K-rate from his stellar 2014 season but his swing and miss rate remains high, which suggests there’s a rebound coming. He issues few walks, and keeps the ball on the ground. Tanaka’s 75%/4% dominant start/disaster start split in 24 starts shows his dominance. Tanaka is unlikely to remain on the mound for a full season but when he’s on ... oh, those skills. Right now Tanaka is healthy and a healthy Tanaka is more than capable of producing a solid return on investment. A healthy Tanaka also can’t be a pooch against Justin Verlander.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers -109
Nice value here with the Tigers at nearly even money at home against the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball. Justin Verlander had a tremendous second half last year, and he has picked up where he left off. He gave up 3 runs and 5 base runners in 6 innings in his first start this season against the Marlins. He has now allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts. Masahiro Tanaka is 0-1 with a 4.77 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against the Tigers. The Yankees are 0-4 in Tanaka's last 4 starts.
Zack Cimini
Yankees at Tigers
Pick: Yankees
The Yankees are on Sunday Night Baseball? Say it isn't so. Of course they are and we'll lean on them to cash against Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers. The Yankees won game two of the series Saturday to give the Tigers their first loss of the season. Ignoring Ryan Zimmerman's fantastic outing Friday, the same pitching issues that haunted the Tigers last year are prevalent. In both wins against the Marlins the Tigers had to hold off poor bullpen meltdowns. In one they needed extra innings after surrendering three runs in the bottom of the ninth. In the other the Marlins had a bases loaded scenario with Giancarlo Stanton at the plate with two outs down 7-3. Look for Mashahiro Tanaka to hold steady and the Yankees to do damage late to get the underdog cover.
Lakers vs. Rockets
Pick: Lakers
Oddsmakers are giving us an inordinate amount of points for the down-trodden Lakers against the Rockets. Can Houston take of business and finish the season strong for the eighth seed in the Western Conference?Houston, is coming off a head scratching loss as a twelve point home favorite to the Phoenix Suns. In the loss the Rockets surrendered an early double-digit first quarter lead and played with a lackluster approach. Veteran guard Jason Terry interviewed for the UAB men's basketball position, Dwight Howard seems disinterested, and the Rockets flier on Michael Beasley is obviously a short term project. There's too many issues with the Rockets to fall for the trap another steep spread. The Lakers have enough fire power to stay within this number. This also may be their best shot at winning a game for Kobe Bryant before his retirement as they face the Thunder and Jazz to conclude the season.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Under in the Lakers-Rockets showdown in Houston.
Los Angeles did play Over the total on Friday in New Orleans, but they are still 4-1 Under their last 5 games overall. The are also on a 5-2 Under clip their last 7 games.
Houston has been winding things down on a decided Under trend, as 4 of their last 6 games have ended up holding Under the total. In fact, the Rockets are now 7-3 Under the posted price in their last 10 games played.
4 of the last 6 in this series have held Under the total, and with this total hovering around 212 1/2 points, I see the final score falling just shy of it playing Over.
Lakers-Rockets Under on the final Sunday of the regular season.
2* L.A. LAKERS-HOUSTON UNDER
Brad Wilton
Going to look for this last regular season showdown between Golden State and San Antonio to play Under the posted total.
When these teams met on Thursday in Oakland, they played to a 112-101 final in favor of the Warriors in a game they made its way Over the total. I think the change in venue keeps this meeting from making its way Over the total.
Each of the last 4 series meetings between the teams in San Antonio have held Under the total, and 7 of the last 10 series meetings overall have also landed Under the posted price.
I know the Warriors are chasing history, but with the Dubs locked into the #1 spot, and the Sours secure at #2, there is a likely chance Steve Kerr and Greg Popovich rest some players during the course of this game.
Make it 5 in a row in San Antonio Under the total after these 4 quarters are complete.
Golden State-San Antonio Under the total.
4* GOLDEN STATE-SAN ANTONIO UNDER
Scott Delaney
With these division rivals concluding a three-game weekend series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, I am going to play the small pup in this clash. This has always been one of the closest division rivals, as the Orioles hold a 159-157 advantage in the all time head-to-head series, while the Orioles won the series 10-9 last season. They opened this year's series with a win on Friday before last night's rainout.
And remember last year when one of the Orioles' home series was relocated to St. Petersburg due to unrest in the city of Baltimore? Even still, the O's were the better team.
Don't bother listing the pitchers in this one, as Baltimore opened the season with three straight wins. Now at 4-0, all four of those wins have been at home, and the O's are in their right comfort zone and are hosting the Rays at the right time.
Again, I am not listing pitchers in this game, as I don't think we need to with the momentum the Orioles have for the weekend. Sunday afternoon in Baltimore, yeah, the crowd will be rockin and the home team is on fire.
Take the O's tonight.
2* ORIOLES
Chris Jordan
My free pick will be short and sweet today, as I like the Chicago White Sox because of one reason and one reason only: Jose Quintana. When playing this game, just list Quintana, and don't worry about Cleveland's Josh Tomlin.
Quintana has done a nice job in solidifying a spot atop the rotation during his career, but said during the spring he didn't feel he's produced like he should have and is approaching ths season differently.
His career 3.46 ERA has been overshadowed by a whopping 53 no-decisions - the most in MLB since 2012. And while that number stands out, so so does this one: he is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA against the Tribe lifetime.
I like the Sox because of Quintana, as he is very motivated, and will have confidence in this one.
3* WHITE SOX
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 42-25 run with complimentary plays: Minnesota at KANSAS CITY (-155)
The STORYLINE in this game today - American League Central rivals conclude their series in Kansas City, where the Royals picked up from a season-opening series with the New York Mets, against a not-so competitive Minnesota Twins team that doesn't have the pitching or offense to match the defending World Series champs.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Rest and preparation has seemingly been the key in this series, as the Royals had two days off after splitting two games in three days against the Mets in a rematch of the Fall Classic they won in five games. Kansas City, at home, with rest for a less-than-worthy opponent has made for a big weekend, and opened with two straight wins.
BOTTOM LINE is - Minnesota came into this series mired in a three-game slide after being swept in Baltimore to start the season. The Twins scored six total runs in what turned out to be a tight three-game series, but was also marred by the Twins lack of hitting in key moments. Minnesota has lost again the past two nights. This team is doomed for the weekend.
3* ROYALS
Harry Bondi
DETROIT -110 over NY Yankees
Detroit lost it's first game of the season yesterday but we expect the tigers to bounce back with Justin Verlander on the hill in the ESPN Sunday Night Game. Masahiro Tanaka gets the start for New York and while he and his surgically repaired right elbow looked good in his first start of the season, it was Verlander who pitched 6 no-hit innings in his season debut that was the better pitcher in week one of the season and we expect that to be the case once again at Comerica Park tonight.
Bob Balfe
Yankees +105
Verlander looked good early in the opener, but still is a guy coming off injury and who did not have great control this spring. Today will be a very cold and windy game which is really not ideal conditions for any MLB Pitcher. The Yankees have pop in their bat to start this year as they are hitting the ball really well. I am also impressed with this bullpen.
Bruce Marshall
Padres -105
The Rockies are about to send a police escort to get the Padres out of town after San Diego has blasted Colorado pitching for 29 runs in the first two games of this weekend set. Though Rockies starter Chad Bettis allowed three runs or fewer in nine of eleven Coors Field starts last season, prefer the Padres and James Shields, who was 4-0 vs. Colorado last season.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati +112
A tough spot for Pittsburgh, its third straight road game, and off a 5-1 loss yesterday as a favorite. The Pirates go with lefty Jeff Locke, who gave up 14 runs in 19 innings during spring training. The Cincinnati Reds are off to a great start and are home for the fifth straight game. The Reds unveil Tim Melville, making his MLB debut, so the Pirates have no book on him. And the Reds are 21-10 in their last 31 games with umpire Joe West behind home plate, so jump on the home dog. Play Cincinnati.