Jeffrey James
Rockets -7.5
Love the Rockets here to get a big win and cover. They will want to make a statement about the MVP and show that Harden should be the man and not Westbrook. They know if they can stop Westbrook they can beat the Thunder so look for them to focus on him on the defensive end. They will be very happy to pour on the points and get a big statement making soul-crushing win here. Lay the points with the Rockets as the play of the day.
Bruce Marshall
Blazers / Warriors Over 220
These teams did not combine for under 224 points in their four meetings this season and we don't think much will change in Sunday's Game One. Before slowing down a bit in the last two reg.-season games, the Warriors went on a stretch of five overs in six games, which followed up a long "under" skein minus Kevin Durant. K-D is back, however, and the scoring should be up in this series.
Jack Brayman
My free winner for Sunday is the Atlanta Braves over the San Diego Padres.
My free play for Easter Sunday is the streaking Atlanta Braves over the San Diego Padres.
The Braves opened the season mired in a 1-6 skid, but have turned things around a bit and ride into this series finale on a three-game win streak. Now they catch a struggling Padres team that opened the season winning five of nine, but have lost three in a row.
I won't list the pitchers in this one, as I'm basing this strictly off momentum, location and the situation we have.
Atlanta is headed in the right direction, the Padres are struggling, it's Easter Sunday afternoon at the new SunTrust Park and the Braves won't let the fans down.
Take Atlanta straight here.
5* BRAVES
Brad Wilton
Paging the Toronto Blue Jays offense...Is there anybody out there?!?!?!
Toronto finally won a home game on Saturday, but they did so with just 2 measly runs scored.
The Jays have now been held to 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 7 games this season, and the Under has been money in 8 of their 11 overall games this April.
The Under when the Blue Jays face the Orioles now stands at 4-2 through the first 6 go 'rounds in 2017, and I see no reason to go against that trend today as Dylan Bundy and JA Happ meet for the second time this season - the first resulting in a 3-1 Under in favor of the O's at Camden Yards.
With 12 of the last 13 series meetings between the teams landing Under the posted price, no sense in going against this 93% stat on Sunday afternoon.
Orioles-Blue Jays Under the total.
5* BALTIMORE-TORONTO UNDER
Chris Jordan
Tonight I'm playing the Royals again, over the Angels, who finish up in Kansas City for the weekend.
I'm not listing pitchers in this game because the Royals' staff is doing fine no matter who goes for them. The struggling Angels, who have lost four in a row, are strapped with facing a Royals' rotation that owns an American League best 2.59 ERA after 11 games.
Just over the past three nights we've seen Kansas City's Nathan Karns, Jason Vargas and Danny Duffy have allowed two runs and 11 hits over 20.2 innings.
Sunday afternoons at Kauffman Stadium is always rocking ever since Kansas City rose to supremacy the past few years, and today will be no different. I was there three seasons back when the Royals dominated the Angels in the division series, and watched the clinching game.
Kansas City will once again tarnish the Halos, and if indeed the boys from Anaheim hand the ball to Tyler Skaggs, it'll be even sweeter. Again, I don't care who goes for either team, but make note that Skaggs has struggled over his first two outings of the season, with an 8.71 ERA.
Take K.C. here, as it's an easy freebie.
3* ROYALS
Eric Schroeder
Wednesday night I took the New York Yankees because of a Major League pitching debut, and it worked out well. Thursday and Friday night I take the New York Yankees because they're on a roll and playing well, and hit a pair of 80 Dimers. Then yesterday I was on the pinstripes as my freebie.
Today my free winner is back on the Bronx Bombers, as I'm riding the Yankees once again. This is baseball ladies and gentlemen - and we roll with streaks.
The Yankees have won six straight games and will surely be able to keep things going against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are making their first-ever trip to the new Yankee Stadium. And now the Redbirds have to deal with the Yanks on national television tonight.
The Yankees have seemingly turned things around since losing four of their first five games, while the Cardinals have now lost eight of 10 since winning their season-opener. St. Louis is playing its sixth road game in seven nights, after opening its road trip with a three-game set in Washington D.C., against the Nationals.
St. Louis' pitching won't be able to slow New York's offense, which has scored 33 runs since the fifth inning on Sunday, when the Yankees were in Baltimore. The Yankees' bats have benefited from poor pitching, and a slew of home runs by their young lineup.
Take New York for this 8:05 p.m. first pitch, as it continues to roll, and St. Louis continues to struggle.
4* YANKEES
Ray Monohan
White Sox/Twins Under 9
The Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins play the rubber match of their three game series on Sunday afternoon, and with the over/under at 9 there is a lot of value. The Twins and White Sox have both had problems scoring runs all season. In Saturday's game the Twins shut out the White Sox 5-0.
On the mound Sunday is Hector Santiago and James Shield. Early in the season both pitchers have ERA's under 2.4. I think this will be another pitchers duel with not many runs scored. Some trends to note. Under is 6-1 in Santiagos last 7 starts overall. Under is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 vs. American League Central. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
This is just too many runs. for two teams having problems scoring.
Brandon Lee
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -103
Toronto snapped a 7-game losing streak and finally have some momentum to build on, as they try to salvage a split in their 4-game series against division rival Baltimore. I like the price here with the Blue Jays at home. Toronto will send out J.A. Happ, who I think is flying a bit under the radar right now. Happ has served up 4 homers (2 in each start) and has a 5.40 ERA. What stands out to me is the fact that he has 17 strikeouts and 0 walks in 11 2/3 innings. Note that his first start came at Baltimore, where he allowed just 3 runs on 5 hits in 7 innings. Orioles will give the ball to Dylan Bundy, who is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 2 starts. Bundy was excellent at home, but really struggled on the road and that was the case with him last year. It's only a matter of time before Toronto's offense shows up.
Jimmy Boyd
Tigers vs. Indians
Play:Indians -1½
I'm not about to lay -200 or more on any team this early in the season, but I will pick my spots backing these teams on the run line. I like the value a lot here with Cleveland at home against the Tigers on Sunday. The Indians will send out Carlos Carrasco, who has been better than expected after last year's injury that cost him a chance to pitch in the postseason. He's allowed just 3 runs on 8 hits with 14 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work.
Detroit will counter with Matt Boyd, who is coming off a strong start at home against the Twins, where he allowed just 1 hit over 6 shutout innings. The thing is, Boyd was hit hard in that game and I just don't think he's going to have a lot of outing like that. Keep in mind he lasted just 2 1/3 innings in his first start, giving up 5 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks. Cleveland's offense is coring 5.2 runs/game at home and have scored 23 runs in their last 3 games. The Indians should be able to put up a decent number here and have no problem winning by 2 or more runs.
Tony Karpinski
Chicago vs. Boston
Play: Boston -6
Boston looks so sharp with their outstanding ball movement - pounding the ball inside, and moving it around the perimeter - Isaiah Thomas has been smooth and has his shot in rhythm - hitting the best he ever has in his career this season. Boston got a scare when they ran into a rough stretch towards the end of March, into early April, but they got back on track with their last couple games with steady Ws - and the Celts are going to do everything needed as the #1 seed in the East for the NBA playoffs.
Chicago has had problems with getting good looks outside, they get stuck dribbling too much and don't move the ball like their opponent does. They have also had some poor rebounding as of late as well. Chicago can't give too many easy buckets in transition, of course, Chicago will be cautious on the road, in Boston this is never easy.
Jack Jones
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Play: Diamondbacks +185
I'm going to take a shot with the Arizona Diamondbacks today as huge road underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers. They'll be highly motivated for a win to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to Kershaw and Maeda.
I don't believe the Dodgers have an edge at all on the mound today. Rich Hill has not fared well against the Diamondbacks, going 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA in six career starts against them. His teams are 1-5 in those six starts.
Taijaun Walker is one of the best young talents in baseball. That talent allowed the Diamondbacks to trade Jean Segura for him after Segura had over 200 hits last year. Walker has posted a 4.91 ERA in two starts this season, both of which came against the Giants.
The Diamondbacks are a very profitable 19-10 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in road games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last three seasons. Arizona is 6-2 in its last eight games following a loss.
SPORTS WAGERS
ST. LOUIS +105 over Minnesota
OT included. We pride ourselves on playing into market inefficiencies and taking advantage of over and under-reactions. Unfortunately, we make mistakes too and did so when we overreacted to Minnesota dominating the Blue Notes in Game 1. In Game 2, the Blues played much better and also made the proper adjustments while the Wild are losing confidence with each passing shift. The Blues got better as the game wore on in Game 2 and now they’re taking a 2-0 lead back to Scottrade.
So, here’s what we know. Jake Allen is in Minnesota’s head. They have two goals in this series and have played most of the series being frustrated. The Wild have not had a lead in this series and have mostly been behind, thus they have been chasing games. We also know that every game of these playoffs with the exception of Nashville’s victory over Chicago on Saturday night have been decided by luck or bounces. Nobody is dominating anyone and each and every game could have gone either way. Now the Blues are a dog at home because why? St. Louis was a monster at home all season long and if they lose here so be it but the market has this priced wrong. The Blues cannot and should not be a dog in their own building and nothing more needs to be said.
Pittsburgh +115 over COLUMBUS
OT included. First off, anyone that has watched the first two games of this series knows that the Jackets deserved a better fate. At the very least, Columbus should have been returning home with a split or perhaps even up 2-0 but it didn’t work out that way. Columbus has been the better team in at least four of the six periods so far and maybe five. Anyone that has watched this series so far could easily be influenced by what they’ve seen and thus, playing the Jackets at -120 seems reasonable. We would absolutely agree with that if Columbus kept their wits about them and lost graciously but they did not.
Matt Calvert’s hit on Tom Kuhnhackl was not only a cross-check, it was a criminal act. The NHL in true to from fashion gave Calvert a one-game suspension when the appropriate suspension should have been life. Calvert didn’t go after just one player at the end of that game; he went after three with the intent to hurt someone. At the end of the second period, Scott Hartnell went after Sidney Crosby by trying to crosscheck him in the head and Sid was steaming.
The Penguins were not playing their best and one could suggest that they were sleeping a bit but what the Jackets did was wake them up. You let sleeping dogs lie. Do you think for a second that there will be no response from Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and the rest of the Pens? The response will not be of the brutality variety. The response is that two of the best hockey players in the world and perhaps the NHL’s best team is not going to allow a team that has never accomplished anything to dictate anything in this series anymore. Again, the Jackets woke up a sleeping dog and the price they’ll pay will be on the ice.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Diego +116 over ATLANTA
Shades of Methuselah here but as Bartolo Colon’s ERA seems to show continued life, his xERA tells a different story. There are small signs of erosion all over the place but we said the same thing last year. When (if) he finally retires, Colon can regale friends with tall tales of being on that team with Julio Franco and Babe Ruth. This year, Colon’s swinging strike rate is 3% but he has eight K’s in 10 innings. His fastball is at 87 MPH and his groundball rate is 10%. If we can’t fade Colon as the chalk, who can we fade? Colon is batting practice or at least he should be.
Trevor Cahill may be made of glass but he’s just 29 years old and has wickedly good skills. Cahill went 4-4 with a 2.72 ERA in 66 innings for the Cubbies. His numbers were skewed by a couple of outings but overall his MLB skills were pretty good. All-in-all, Cahill consolidated the gains he made late in 2015, including a revived strikeout, rate and strong groundball tilt. In one start this year, Cahill’s swing and miss rate was an elite 16% after striking out seven batters in six frames. Cahill has been dealing with injury problems his entire career but he's back from the dead and when he’s healthy, he’s damn good.
Tampa Bay +147 over BOSTON
Last year Alex Cobb went 1-2 with an 8.59 ERA in a mere 22 innings for the Rays. Cobb struggled, perhaps predictably, in those tentative first steps back from May 2015 TJS. Entering that season, we were touting him as a potential breakout star because he had the skills to back it up. He surely still owns those skills and they’re coming around again. After two starts covering 13 innings, Cobb has a BB/K split of 2/11 with a 13% swing and miss rate and nifty 0.95 WHIP. A strong swing and miss rate supported his decent (but not elite) K-rate prior to the surgery, indicating potential for further growth. In particular, Cobb generated swings on 36% of pitches outside of strike zone in 2014; compared to league average of 31%. The Rays are playing well and Alex Cobb is a very decent underdog target.
Drew Pomeranz is coming off a six-inning, four-hit gem against the Orioles but Baltimore is having difficulty with junk pitchers so that’s something to keep an eye on. Pomeranz is not skilled enough to duplicate that performance often. His most glaring weakness is his lack of control, the result of nibbling at the plate and falling behind early in the count. These control issues may be at least partially due to the fact that he often works backwards, by throwing a knuckle-curve more than any other pitch (40%). But that makes sense given the quantity of grounders and swinging strikes the pitch induces. His skills play-up when his hit and strand rates are favorable and while you can say that about almost any pitcher, Pomeranz throws too many balls and his groundball/fly/ball rate of 31%/44% will not play well at Fenway like it did in San Diego. Pomeranz limped to the finish line (6.61 ERA) after being dealt from the Pads to the Rex Sox at the deadline last year. Pomeranz' 21% hr/f since coming over to Boston, compared to a 9% rate in SD, may just be a small sample fluke, but it is another concern among others. The plan is to stick to playing value and in that regard, Cobb and the Rays are a pretty sweet price here.
MINNESOTA -1½ +155 over Chicago
After two starts, Hector Santiago is 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Santiago is a fade target of ours that we’ll talk about another time. We’re not concerned about it for this start because it’s not relevant, as this wager is all about fading the South Side with James Shields on the hill. Shields’ is 1-0 after two starts with a 1.69 ERA and it’s only because of cold weather. It’s not every pitcher who can rack up a 6-19 record with an ERA approaching 6.00 – and still have a job the next year. Such is the case with James Shields, who despite his 2016 struggles, opened this year with a spot in the rotation. You may have noticed we didn’t fade him in his first two starts because he has a past history of surviving in the cold but it’s a comfortable 65° in Minnesota today with the winds blowing out (early reports) and chances are that Shields will be getting blown out too.
A favorable strand rate had been Shields’ friend in years past, but not in 2016. However, that was the least of his worries. With lagging velocity, he generated fewer swinging strikes, and his k-rate took a big hit. At the same time, Shields’ first-pitch strike rate plummeted so he issued more free passes. To complete the perfect storm, he gave up more fly balls, and with a high hr/f, his ERA soared. Shields’ gets another chance ONLY because he’s got two more years on his contract with $42 million due and the South Side are not paying anyone 42 million to sit on the bench. They’ll pitch him until his are falls off. At 35, his skills are unlikely to make a rebound and they already look worse under the hood after those two aforementioned starts. Shields’ has walked seven batters already in 11 frames. His groundball/fly-ball split after two starts is 20%/64%! His first pitch strike rate is 51%. While it’ll be hard to post numbers worse than in 2016, Shields’ is well on his way because the skills are actually worse already. All you DFS players, load up on Twinkies today
SPORTS WAGERS
Series - Oklahoma City +319 over HOUSTON
The focal point of this series is all about the epic clash of MVP candidates, as Russell Westbrook and James Harden will duel it out in what will likely be an offense-oriented affair. It would be cliché but it would also be appropriate to sing the praises of Westbrook for a moment. Westbrook led the league with 31.6 points per game while also compiling an incredible 10.4 assists per game and 10.7 boards per game in what averages out to a triple-double on a nightly basis. What is even more remarkable about this daily fantasy powerhouse is the fact he crafted this virtuoso campaign with spit-wad and shoe-shine in what some analysts perceived to be an apocalyptic post-Kevin Durant era in Oklahoma City. Westbrook was complemented by an outfit of personnel that collectively shot dead last in three-point efficiency on the season, comprised of the likes of Steven Adams, Taj Gibson and Kyle Singler. Even the addition of shooter Victor Oladipo could not catalyze anything from downtown. Despite the drop-off in prowess, the Thunder found ways to win on Westbrook’s back and an uptick in defensive presence to start off their 2016-17 efforts. Most importantly, the Thunder became a physical bunch in the paint and are likely the best rebounding team in the NBA at this point despite being characterized as a traditionally-finesse team. Oklahoma City reinvented their game and transformed itself overnight. It paid dividends with Westbrook taking his talents to insane levels.
On the year, the Rockets have defeated this Thunder team in three of the four occasions. The Rockets main weapon is James Harden but he’s not the only toy that Clutch City has in its arsenal. The Rockets picked up Eric Gordon and “Sweet” Lou Williams in the off-season to bolster a very dangerous second-ranked scoring offense (115.2 points per game). Harden in particular revamped his game, as he became more of a facilitator despite being a sure-fire scorer and thus, the Rockets achieved lift-off in 2016 after what had to be classed as a lackluster 2015-16 effort. Houston cruised into a #3 seed and given their demonstrated ability to light up scoreboards, a popular belief is they will essentially have their way in this series if they can curtail Westbrook somehow. That is indeed a big if.
Houston’s defense has always been its Achilles heel, which is our focus here for getting behind the sixth seeded Thunder. The Rockets are ranked 26th in scoring defense while allowing opponents to shoot 46.3% from the field. Bottom line is that Houston lives and dies by their offense and often teams of this nature are just a cold-night away from taking a very long bath. Not only can Houston lose these shootout games by hitting a skid at the wrong time, they can tumble right out of the playoffs early if they can’t keep up with Westbrook and his merry men who will be sure to take advantage of their accommodating defense. Sound defensive teams with good structure win playoff series while one-dimensional teams that try and outscore everyone win regular season games. The Thunder may not pull this upset off but they have the horses to do so and we’ll gladly take our chances against a weak defense at better than 3-1 odds.
Will Rogers
Edmonton vs. San Jose
Pick: San Jose
The set-up: The Edmonton Oilers are playing in the postseason for the first time since 2006. They've opened 2-0 leads over the Sharks in both Games 1 and 2 (both played in Edmonton) but as the series heads to San Jose for Games 3 and 4, it's tied at one apiece. The Sharks recovered form a 2-0 deficit in Game 1 (won 3-2 in OT) but got stymied in Game 2, as Edmonton goalie Cam Talbot only needed to make 16 saves in earning his first career postseason shutout
Edmonton: Captain Connor McDavid scored short-handed goals, marking the eighth time in franchise history Edmonton recorded multiple short-handers in a playoff game, in the Game 2 win. McDavid is riding a 16-game point streak that began on March 14 (eight goals and 19 assists in that stretch). The Oilers were 22-14-5 on the road this season, with those 22 road wins representing the team's most since the 1985-86 season. San Jose can't expect the Oilers to 'lie down' here in San Jose.
San Jose: The Sharks made it all the way to the Cup Finals last season (lost to Pittsburgh) and were 26-11-4 at home this year, allowing a modest 2.17 GPG. The Sharks posted eight wins in their final 12 at SAP Center to finish tied with the Chicago Blackhawks for third most home wins in the West. In those last dozen games, San Jose held opponents to two goals or less eight times, winning seven.
The pick: Edmonton has spent way too much time in the penalty box and stands at 1-1 in the series, only because San Jose has failed to cash in. The Sharks have received six power-play opportunities in each of the first two contests but have converted just once. Look for Edmonton's luck to run out here in Game 3.