DAVE COKIN
CHICAGO AT TAMPA BAY
PLAY: CHICAGO +105
You’d be hard pressed to find any starting pitcher who has suffered more lousy W/L luck than Jose Quintana has over the past couple of seasons. So if you believe in progressions to the norm, then 2016 almost has to be better for this talented southpaw hurler.
Matt Moore is hoping for some better luck as well, although for the Rays lefty that’s more about simply staying on the field and avoiding injury. So far, so good for Moore and if Tampa Bay is going to even hang around the outskirts of the AL East race, they need Moore to be out there every fifth day.
I like both these pitchers, but at this point, I’m far more trusting of Quintana. He’s a solid option more often than not, and the early 2016 returns are very positive. Quintana might fly under the radar as far as causal fans are concerned. But those who follow the game closely know that Quintana is a legit #2 starter, and he might even be a borderline ace.
I still need some convincing with Moore. He’s not likely to ever be as hard a thrower as when he first arrived at the big league level, but if Moore can command his stuff as he has in his first two starts, he’s going to be an asset for the Rays. But I’ll need a few more good efforts where the walk rate stays nice and low before I’m sold Moore is all the way back.
I give Quintana the edge over Moore in this game. I also like the White Sox lineup against lefties, while I’m not much on the Tampa attack vs. southpaws. Plus, the early 2016 bullpen stats favor the Chisox. When putting together my data for this game, I ended making the visitors a -115 choice. So getting the Pale Hose at any plus money looks like decent value and I’ll be on the White Sox today.
Sleepyj
Oakland +1.5 -150
I'll take a shot and back the A's here with Bassitt on the mound...He looked very good in his last start..Big guy with strong arm and a few good pitches..Never easy trying to navigate around this KC lineup, but Bassitt is a patient pitcher..I like that in him...KC coming off a loss now will be looking for a win, but the A's bats have looked pretty good the last few games....KC came into the season ht and Im waiting for them to run a little cold and this may be the right time...Medlen will take the hill today for the Royals..Not sold on Medlen right now, but down the stretch he should be fine..His last game was rather interesting..He was wild and all over the place..He still managed to strikeout 7 batters, but walked 4...He wasn't very good at throwing strike at all in his first start....He might be better, but being on the road is challenge..I'll grab the A's with the +1.5 here..Bassitt should be fine and I can see a 1 run game either way.
Bruce Marshall
NY Yankees -1.5 +147
This pitching matchup will draw big ratings in Tokyo as a pair of Japanese starters take the mound. On Sunday the advantage goes to New York's Masahiro Tanaka, who is 13-6 with a 2.98 ERA in his career at Yankee Stadium and has a 3-0 mark with a 2.35 ERA and .173 OBA in his career vs. the Mariners, tough numbers for Seattle countepart and countryman Hisashi Iwakuma to match. Plus the Yankees are desperate to avoid the sweep this weekend at the broom of the Mariners.
Rob Vinciletti
White Sox vs. Rays
Play: Rays -115
The Rays cashed big for us on Saturday and we will stick with them today as they fit a nice 64-18 system that pertain to home teams off a home blowout win by 5 or more runs, vs an opponent that scored 2 or less runs like Chicago. The Sox are 1-4 as a road dog off a road loss by 5 or more runs. Moore pitching for Tampa has better overall numbers than Quintana as he is 3-1 with a 1.09 era vs Chicago and has 2 nice starts here this year. Look for Tamp Bay to take the rubber game.
Scott Spreitzer
Charlotte vs. Miami
Play:Charlotte +4½
The Hornets will look to force a tempo quicker than the Miami Heat prefer to play. This is a contrast in styles with Charlotte looking to speed things up and shooting from the deep perimeter, while the Heat will look to slow down the tempo and play a more deliberate game on the offensive end. Charlotte enters on an 18-6 SU run, getting more than 21 ppg from Kemba Walker and inspired play down the stretch from Al Jefferson. Miami has had a tough time holding uptempo teams in-check, covering just six of their last 20 against teams that average at least 103 ppg. And after opening the season with a 10-point home win over Charlotte in late October, the series was quite close. Miami won one more meeting by three points, while the Hornets won the other two, by 18 at home in December, and by a 109-106 margin in Miami last month. The backcourt depth should give the Hornets an advantage in this one and Charlotte received good news over the last 24 hours when Nicolas Batum's status was upgraded to probable. We won't be surprised if Charlotte "steals" one in Miami and we'll recommend taking the available points for insurance.
Marc Lawrence
Giants vs. Dodgers
Play:Dodgers -125
Edges - Dodgers: Kenta Maeda 0.00 ERA with 8 K’s and 1 W this season. Giants: Jeff Samardzija 0-2 with 6.36 ERA career team starts versus Los Angeles; and 5-12 last 17 April team starts, including 4-9 away. With the Dodgers having won 8 of the last 11 games as a host in this series, we recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Dodgers.
Joseph D'Amico
Charlotte vs. Miami
Play:Charlotte +4½
Charlotte won and covered 2 of the L3 meetings over Miami this season and enter this contest winning 4 of their L5 SU. Missing the talent and leadership of Chris Bosh will hurt the Heat as they face the higher-scoring, better FT shooting, and better 3-point shooting Hornets team. Charlotte plays a frustrating "D" ranking 9th in Points Allowed. The Backcourt of Walker and Batum will control the pace and should Dwyane Wade get physical, Miami is a FT poor-shooting squad. the Road team is 7-3-1 ATS the L11 meetings in this series.
Jim Feist
Reds vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 7½
Cincinnati has good offensive sock, on a 10-4 run over the total when facing a righty starter. But the pitching is suspect, starting with Jon Moscot going today. Moscot went 5.2 innings Tuesday for Triple-A Louisville in a rehab start, allowing five runs on six hits, including a homer. The former fourth-rounder pitched three games for Cincinnati last summer, going 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA. He faces a red-hot St. Louis offense that is tops in baseball in runs scored and third in on base percentage, on a 6-1 run over. Starter Michael Wacha has allowed 17 base runners in 10+ innings on the young season, with batters hitting .326 off him. The over is 10-1 in Wacha's last 11 starts, plus 19-7 over when the faces the National League Central.
Matt Josephs
Cincinnati at St Louis
Play: St Louis -1½
Jon Moscot gets the call fresh off his rehab assignment and all he has to do is slow down the Cardinals who are hot as can be. Sure they lost on Saturday, but St. Louis has scored seven runs or more in three straight and seven of their last eight. Moscot was roughed up last time out giving up five runs and six hits in 5.2 innings. Because he's coming off an injury, he won't go very deep in this game meaning a bullpen that had an ERA over nine on the road before yesterday will come into play. On the other side, you've got Michael Wacha who was stellar at home. Wacha is 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA and a WHIP of 1.062 in nine career starts against the Reds. He's dominated Jay Bruce (0-21, 10 K's), Billy Hamilton (1-20) and Brandon Phillips (3-22). The Reds had a rare outburst offensively on Saturday as they were hitting .209 on the road before then. The Cardinals pen has been fantastic as a unit so far in 2016. I like the Cards to get the win on Sunday.
Mike Lundin
Giants vs. Dodgers
Play:Dodgers -139
We won with the San Francisco Giants as a premium pick when they defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3 yesterday, but I'm backing the Dodgers in Sunday's rubbermatch of this three-game set.
Los Angeles' Kenta Maeda (1-0, 0.00 ERA) has yet to concede a run in the MLB with only 10 hits allowed and eight Ks over 12 scoreless innings of work. We can also note that the Giants' win yesterday was their first in six visits to Dodger Stadium, and with that monkey of their back they might take tonight's contest more lightly.
The Giants will turn to Jeff Samardzija (1-0, 3.38 ERA) who'll make his third start in a Giants uniform. He's 0-2 with an ERA of 6.35 and a WHIP of 1.765 throughout his career against the Dodgers and he has a .417 BAA versus the current members of the team. Chase Utley has the most experience against Samardzija going 5-for-16 with three doubles, a triple and a homer.
The Giants are 0-4 in their last four during game 3 of a series while the Dodgers 4-1 in their last five during game 3 of a series. Look for the home-team to clinch this one.
Bob Harvey
Blazers vs. Clippers
Play: Blazers +8½
The fourth and fifth seeds in the Western Conference open their first round playoff series as the Los Angeles Clippers host the Portland Trail Blazers. This is the first time these two teams will be meeting in the playoffs since the 1970-71 season when both franchises entered the NBA.
The Trail Blazers (44-38 SU & ATS) will go as far as their backcourt takes them. Damien Lillard led the Blazers with a 25.1 average while C.J. McCollum was right behind at 20.8. They were a big reason for Portland’s strong 29-14 regular season finish.
The Clippers (53-29, 40-39 ATS) will be at full strength for the best-of-seven series with the return of Blake Griffin who missed 45 games because of a partially torn right quad and a fractured right hand from a fight with an assistant equipment manager. However truth be told, the Clippers won the first nine that he missed and were 30-15 overall during his absence, which included a four-game suspension from the team for the fight in Toronto.
The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last home games and 4-1 last five vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. LA is also 7-2 last nine against Western Conference teams and 8-3 ATS overall.
Portland is 8-20-2 ATS in its last 30 conference quarterfinal games and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. The Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Los Angeles but 1-5 vs. the number in their last six games against the Western Conference.
The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in LA and 5-2 past seven overall.
Martin Griffiths
AFC Bournemouth vs. Liverpool
Play: Over 2½
I fancy goals in this game for a variety of reasons, none less so than the fact that both teams have suspect defences.
Both teams have something to play for still, though in the case of Bournemouth they are almost certainly safe from relegation while Liverpool are still fighting for a European spot.
Bournemouth would like to win simply to make safety a certainty, they will also be very up for this game, they are playing one of football's elite teams and clubs are always motivated for such games and that includes their fans of course.
Liverpool will want to maintain momentum and in Jurgen Klopp they have a manager that will not allow complacency to set in, just because they beat Borussia Dortmund midweek in an epic encounter does not mean that they can take Bournemouth for granted, that would be a terrible mistake.
The weakest point in Liverpool's team is their defence, they are capable of letting in goals against anyone, while Bournemouth's defence is very average for a Premier League team and I can see both back lines being busy today.
All things considered I see an exciting game, I see both sides scoring and I see one, if not both sides scoring at least twice, therefore it is the overs for me.
Frank Jordan
Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5
Detroit and Cleveland are division rivals and that will make for some interesting basketball in the playoffs. These two teams played on the last day of the regular season and the Pistons won in Cleveland in overtime by two, but Love, Irving, LeBron and JR Smith all didn't play. Back in February these two squads did play in Detroit with the Pistons winning 96-88 despite Cleveland being at full staff and 30 being dropped by Kyrie, in January in Detroit the Cavaliers won 114-106 as Love put up 29 points, and in the first meeting of the year at Detroit in November the Pistons won 104-99 even with LeBron scoring 30. Even with Detroit winning three of four in the regular season, being the 8th seed while Cleveland is the top seed and all that it don't mean anything as the post season is an entirely different animal. Look for LeBron and company to come out strong and make a statement that this is there time and there place and they will blow out the Pistons by 15-20 points.
Will Rogers
Brewers vs. Pirates
Play: Over 8
The Brewers and the Pirates have split the first two games of this series in Pittsburgh, and the rubber match will go on Sunday. Yesterday's game went under, but the Pirates had seen the total go over in five straight prior to Game 2. I think another slugfest is in the cards today.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Zach Davies is a 23 year old right-hander with just six major league starts. He'll get the call up from Triple-A to make a spot start in Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Pirates will hand the ball to Juan Nicasio, who was sharp in his season debut in Pittsburgh, allowing one run on two hits over six innings in a win over St. Louis. He wasn't nearly as sharp in his second start of the season in Detroit, getting roughed up to the tune of four runs on six hits in just three innings.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Andrew McCutchen hit a home run is yesterday's 5-0 win, and he's 1-for-3 lifetime versus Davies. Starling Marte is 2-for-3 versus the right-hander.
3. X-Factor - Both these teams rank near the bottom of the majors in ERA by reliever, ranking 22nd and 24th respectively.
Larry Ness
Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
KC is 8-0 TY when Chris Young (7.90 ERA) has not started, with other starters owning a combined 1.90 ERA...
The Royals lost 5-3 in Oakland Saturday afternoon, dropping to 8-3 to open the 2016 season. Notably, all THREE of KC’s losses this season have come with Chris Young getting the start. The 6-10 right-hander owns a 7.90 ERA, 1.98 WHIP and opponents have hit .333 against him. The good news Sunday is, Young will NOT be taking the mound. In KC’s eight games this year with Young not taking the hill, KC starters own a combined ERA of 1.90! Kris Medlen (1-0, 3.60 ERA) will get his second start of 2016 in this finale of a three-game series.
Medlen missed the 2014 season following elbow surgery, then signed with Kansas City in December of 2014. He made it back to “the bigs” last July as a reliever before joining the rotation in late August. He went 1-2 with a 7.59 ERA in four home starts last season but went 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA in nine road games last year (four starts and five relief appearances). Throw in his 2016 debut at Houston on Tuesday and Medlen has a 1.95 ERA while winning all five road starts for the Royals. Medlen looks to win a SIXTH straight road start in Sunday's rubber match with Oakland, which sends Chris Bassitt (0-0, 2.92 ERA) to the mound.
Bassitt will try a third time to earn his first victory (team is 1-1 in his 2016 starts) but could SURE use some help after receiving three runs of support in his first two. After giving up four runs and eight hits in 5.1 innings of a 5-4 loss to the Chicago White Sox on April 5, the right-hander overcame five walks to yield an unearned run and three hits in seven of a 2-1, 10-inning victory at Seattle five days later. Bassitt will face the Royals for the first time since he posted a 6.23 ERA without a decision over two starts against them in 2014 for the White Sox (Chicago split those two starts).
The Royals were a strong 64-40 vs right-handed starters last year and have opened this year 7-3 (again, all THREE losses came with Young on the mound). Meanwhile, Oakland tied for the fewest home wins last year (34) and owned MLB’s second-worst moneyline mark at home (minus-$2,189). The A’s have opened the 2016 season 2-7 (minus-$592) at home, so here we go again. Hate to keep ‘punking’ Young but KC moves to 9-0 here in 2016, when he has NOT been the team’s starter!