Dwayne Bryant
Mariners at Yankees
Play: Under 7.5
Active Yankees hitters own a combined career .237 BA and .272 wOBA in 63 plate appearances against Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma. Iwakuma is a solid starter who does not walk many batters.
Active Mariners hitters own a combined career .103 BA and .231 wOBA in 43 plate appearances against New York's Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka is a top-notch staff ace who also does not walk many batters.
Seattle owns an average bullpen, while I really like the Yankees' pen.
Mother Nature will not be a factor one way or the other in this one.
The icing on the cake is today's home plate umpire, Mike Muchlinski. Muchlinski has shown a huge Under bias in his work behind the dish.
Bruce Marshall
Cardinals -1.5 +117
Adam Wainwright is obviously struggling on the mound for St. Louis but that does not seem to apply to Michael Wacha, who pitched a solid six shutout innings vs. the Brewers in his last start on Monday. This afternoon he should be able to outpitch the Reds' young Jon Moscot, activated off of the DL (intercostal strain) for this game and with just 11 2/3 big league innings pitched under his belt. St. Louis did lose on Saturday but has clubbed 22 runs in the first two games of this weekend set. Play Cards on Run Line
Brad Wilton
The Islanders did their job down in the Sunshine State, as they wound up splitting the first 2 on Panthers ice, and now have home ice advantage for what has become a best-of-five set now.
Look for New York to keep that home ice advantage at least for the night tonight, as the Isles will get a major boost playing in front of the home crowd in Game 3.
After closely watching the first two games in this series, I am of the opinion that there really is not that much separating these teams. This series could very well go the full seven games, and while Florida should eventually prevail, I do not see them taking this first road game tonight.
Home ice makes the difference on Sunday, as the Islanders as the small home favorite go up 2 games to 1.
Play on the Isles.
3* N.Y. ISLANDERS
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Detroit Pistons, in their opening round Game 1 in the Eastern Conference playoffs. I don't see Cleveland messing around, after seeing how badly the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma State Thunder won yesterday.
I've said this plenty of times over the years, in the playoffs, that we see teams responding to how other teams perform in their games. Many take it as a challenge, and try to one-up the other.
Last night the Thunder certainly upstaged Golden State's blowout win. Today Cleveland is going to be out to make a statement in its first game against the Pistons.
1* CAVALIERS
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Pistons-Cavaliers contest.
Seems like a low total on this first game between the Pistons and the Cavaliers if you ask me. Yes, I know playoff basketball tends to be a little tougher defensively than the regular campaign, but the numbers I am looking at sure have me licking my chops at a play on the Over in Game One.
Detroit heads to Quicken Loans Arena having played 3 of their last 4 Over the total. That includes the last game of the regular season when they went toe-to-toe with the Cavs in a 112-110 overtime win that obviously eclipsed the total.
Cleveland finished with Overs in 5 of their final 7 to close out the regular season.
3 of the 4 regular season series meetings landed Over between the clubs, and 4 of the last 5 overall between the rivals have also played high.
Throw in a 6-2 Over mark the last 8 times the Pistons have played in Cleveland, and I just don't see how you can make a strong case for a low-scoring game here in the series opener?
Play the Pistons and Cavaliers Over the total.
4* DETROIT-CLEVELAND OVER
Scott Delaney
The Boston Red Sox have won three in a row and have climbed in the American League East standings. Sitting a game and a half back in second place, behind the Baltimore Orioles, I think this is good motivation to play the Sox today, against division-rival Toronto.
Don't list the pitchers, I don't care about that.
Boston improved to 4-1 against its AL East rivals with a 4-2 victory over the Blue Jays on Saturday. Toronto has scored a combined five runs in its first two of this four-game series in Boston.
The Blue Jays are now batting .214, and 25 of their 47 runs have come via 13 homers. Thus, no surprise here, they have also registered an MLB-high 124 strikeouts.
I like Boston to take advantage of a Blue Jays team that has lost seven of 10.
3* BOSTON
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 43-29 run with complimentary plays: N.Y. Mets (+140) at CLEVELAND.
The STORYLINE in this game today - The New York Mets and Cleveland Indians have split their first two of this series, with the Mets winning 6-5 in the opener and the Tribe taking yesterday's game, 7-5. My money in this one is on the Mets, and I want you listing Steven Matz only.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - I'd say New York's left-hander is the biggest reason, as he is going to stifle the Indians. Matz gave up seven runs to the Marlins in his season debut, but he was also working on nine days of rest in that one. Now he's back on a regular schedule, and will be pitching after five day's rest when he faces the Indians for the first time in his career.
BOTTOM LINE is - Since a four-game skid, the Mets have won two of three and look to keep some momentum on their side today, before heading to Philadelphia tomorrow. I like New York here with this pitcher and believe Matz will be the big difference today.
1* N.Y. METS
Ray Monohan
San Diego Padres +105
The Padres finish off their series with the Diamondbacks on Sunday and open as a slim home dog, giving them solid value here. San Diego's starters have been absolutely dominant lately.
They hold an ERA of under 2.00 the past 5 starts. They'll send out Robbie Erlin, who has dominated the Diamondbacks in his past. Erlin has gone 2-0 with an ERA of just 1.35 in 3 starts against them in his career.
He'll be countered by Patrick Corbin, who has struggled when seeing the Padres. Corbin is just 2-3 with an ERA of 3.38 in 6 appearances. San Diego comes in with a bit of momentum too. They took the Diamondbacks to 14 innings yesterday and eventually won on a walk off 2 run homer.
Some trends to consider. Diamondbacks are 2-5 in Corbins last 7 Sunday starts. Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 games with Eddings behind home plate.
At plus money, the Padres with the better pitcher here are worth a play.
Brian Hay
Houston Astros -121
I believe Houston will jump out to early lead today against Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez, who is struggling horribly with his control. Sanchez has six walks in just 10.2 innings of work this season with only seven strikeouts. This type of walks to strikeout ratio will see him out of MLB. Today Sanchez faces a very tough Houston lineup in a very friendly hitters park. Houston sends Mike Fiers to the hill. This is Fiers first full season in Houston and they've done a fantastic job in developing younger pitchers. I will go with the better pitcher and team for your free play today.
Jimmy Boyd
Hornets +4½
Charlotte is showing some great value here. I actually have the Hornets winning this game outright, but will gladly take the points as some added insurance. Charlotte won in Miami in the most recent meeting on 3/17 and each of the last two in the series were decided by less than the number posted here.
The Hornets are a team that quietly finished the regular season on a tear. Charlotte went 24-8 over their last 32 games. A big part of their late season surge was the return of Al Jefferson to the rotation and Kemba Walker taking his game to another level. Both of these teams can get after it defensively, but I give a big edge offensively to the Hornets.
Charlotte is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 off a win by more than 10-points. Miami is just 6-14 ATS this season against explosive offensive teams that average 103 or more points/game and have lost these games on average by 6 ppg (98.7 104.7)
Dave Price
St. Louis Cardinals -180
I'm willing to lay the price on the Cardinals today with supreme confidence that they're going to beat the Cincinnati Reds. I especially like backing the Cardinals after losing yesterday. Now it's time to back Michael Wacha, who is one of the most underrated starters in the game. He's off to a solid start this season as well, going 1-0 with a 3.48 ERA in two starts. Wacha has owned the Reds, going 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA in 9 lifetime starts against them.
Michael Alexander
Spurs -15½
The host San Antonio Spurs set a franchise record with 67 victories and begin what they hope is a deep postseason run when they open the playoffs against the seventh-seeded Memphis Grizzlies today. The second-seeded Spurs are expected to cruise past the Grizzlies, who lost 10 of their final 11 regular-season games and also went winless in four games against San Antonio this season. The Spurs added power forward LaMarcus Aldridge in the offseason to beef up their championship hopes. Memphis lost its final two games of the regular season by an average of 23.5 points
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY -106 over Chicago
The White Sox have gotten off to a very good 8-3 start, which allows us to sell them here at a high price. What we know for sure is that Matt Moore should be at least a -130 favorite against Jose Quintana.
Though off to a slow start overall, the Rays figure to be an above-average bunch against lefties. Tampa has hit Quintana well in the past and there’s a good chance they’ll get to him again here. Quintana’s issues last season in the first half were tied to his struggles versus righties and to his team’s woes. But across-the-board 2H upticks resulted in another quietly solid season from a pitcher with less-than-ideal team/venue support. This strike-thrower won’t wow you with mph or swing and miss stuff but skills trend speaks for itself. Still, Quintana is almost always going to give up three or four runs and while we like his dominant start/disaster start splits, he’s overpriced in this spot today.
Matt Moore is an under-the-radar pitcher that won’t be under the radar much longer. Win or lose, this is a steal of a price. Last year, Moore only pitched 63 innings, which is why he’s not on the market radar just yet. He had a standard up-and-down return from Tommy John surgery. Moore was OK in the minors to start after his Tommy John precedure but then got pummeled in six starts upon his return to the majors before going back to Triple-A. However, things clicked in his final 11 starts (AAA and MLB) with a 3.12 ERA (2.77 xERA) and 72 K’s in 66 innings. Moore is now leaning on his filthy stuff, especially that nasty curve ball that appears unhittable most of the time. In two starts this year, Moore has walked three batters and struck out 11 in 12 frames. His 11% swing and miss rate is another positive sign among many others. We are absolutely back on board with Moore, especially at this low price and you should be too.
SAN DIEGO +101 over Arizona
Patrick Corbin went 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA in 85 innings for the Snakes last season. Corbin far exceeded his just-happy-to-be-back-from-TJS story. After a 21-month layoff, Corbin’s broad skill base remained intact while he threw a bit harder and dialed up his command. Post-surgery asterisk notwithstanding, Corbin could produce a reasonable facsimile of 2013 if stamina allows. There is some value with Corbin but not as road chalk starting for a team that is off to a weak start. Furthermore, this is a lefty/lefty matchup and the D-Backs are batting .226 against lefties this year while the Padres are hitting .265 against lefties. It’s also worth noting that the Snakes have done most of their batting in hitter’s parks while the Padres have done most of theirs in pitcher’s parks.
Robbie Erlin hasn’t been able to turn AA strikeouts into MLB strikeouts. Solid control and a rising groundball% offer a decent foundation to build upon, but it’s not without risk. Erlin is just 25-years-old and is a younger version of Mark Buehrle. He’s a soft tossing lefty that must rely on inducing weak contact for success. What’s appealing about Erlin is that he can pitch deep into games and get through the order quickly. He had a very good first start of the year in Philadelphia with six solid innings and allowing just three hits and one run. Erlin has faced current Arizona hitters 27 times and they have a total of three hits against him. A.J. Pollack has two of those hits and he’s on the rack. After a 14-inning victory last night to get their first home win of the year, the Padres will have that weight lifted off their shoulders and they’ll bring that good feeling into this one.
Atlanta (5 innings) +110
We saw it with the Twins yesterday; that being a team that snaps a long losing streak comes right back the day after with another win. Had the Twinkies not been favored yesterday, we would have backed them. Well, the Braves lifted a big weight off their shoulders yesterday with the sweet taste of victory for the first time this season and so we’ll apply that angle here.
Aside from that profitable angle, Jared Cosart is a starter that is not worthy of spotting a price with. Last year, Cosart went 2-5 with a 4.52 ERA in 70 innings for the Marlins. For Cosart, the sum of the parts have fallen short of the whole. Cosart’s K’s are sparse despite his mid-90s heater, and now high his groundball % failed to keep the ball in the park. The one constant for Cosart has been his shoddy control and until he reins that in, he'll continue to be enigmatic and completely unplayable as the favorite. In his first start this year, Cosart walked three and struck out three in five frames. His swing and miss rate and first pitch strike rate were both weak at 6% and 57% respectively.
Jhoulys Chacin has pitched 699 innings at the MLB level. Unfortunately, his results have not been inspiring. He has a 4.14 career xERA with 6.9 K’s/9 and a 1.8 BB/9. However, the mitigating factor for Chacin's numbers is that the bulk of his innings came while pitching for the Rockies. In his first start of the year in Washington, Chacin did not allow a run in six innings before getting the hook. He walked none and struck out eight. While we can never put a lot of weight on one game, Chacin had an elite 19% swing and miss rate against Washington in his opener to go along with a 54% groundball rate. He throws junk and had hitter’s off balance all day. There are few bullpens that can be trusted in this league so because this play is largely based on the starters, we’ll play it in the first five only.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT -½ +140 over Tampa Bay
Regulation only. Contrary to public opinion, let us suggest that the Tampa Bay Lightning have not been “that good” in the first two games of this series. Yes indeed, the Bolts have dominated play and have had numerous scoring chances but that is all the result of the Red Wings lackluster and rather pathetic efforts in both games. Frankly, it does not surprise us one bit because the Red Wings have played that way this entire year. In the first two games of this series, several Detroit players have refused to get dirty. If Mike Babcock was still coaching this team, Darren Helm, Gustav Nyquist, Luke Glendening and a few others would be benched or raked over the coals. Actually, that’s not true because these guys would never even think of putting forth such a poor effort if they were playing for Babcock. Jeff Blashill tolerates it. He’s tolerated it all season long but we have seen the Red Wings completely dominate teams when they actually give a shit.
Detroit is not going to win this series because they refuse to impose their will. The Bolts will win this series only because they want it more and they are imposing their will. However, for this first playoff game at the Joe, the Red Wings will be a different team. We have seen them impose their will on the opposition many times this season when they want to. This is the epitome of a Jekyll and Hyde squad that can look so strong one game and so brutally awful the next. It is quite obvious that the Red Wings do not respond well to Blashill but they will respond to their home fans today. At the end of the day, our position on the Bolts remains the same. Tampa is one of the more beatable teams in the playoffs that just happened to get a terrific draw in the first round. Even at their very worst, Detroit had a lead in Game 1 and it was tied with 12 minutes remaining. In Game 2, Detroit tied it early in the third so it’s not like they haven’t been in a position to win. Tampa Bay is an extremely sloppy team that will get beat today if Detroit happens to show up. Before Pavel Datsyuk departs for Russia, the Red Wings will have one more inspired effort in them. This is that game and it’s all because Tampa is so beatable.
Harry Bondi
TORONTO -130 over Boston
The more you see the knuckleball, the easier it is to hit. Knucklehead Steven Wright takes the mound this afternoon at Fenway to face the Blue Jays for the second time in 7 days. Toronto beat Boston and Wright last Sunday in Toronto but it wasn't his fault as he allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings of work. This afternoons starter for the Jays, Aaron Sanchez has allowed just 2 runs in both of his starts this season but has not recieved any run support. Toronto's bats are due to break put afyter being silenced in the first two at Fenway and just like last weekend when they dropped the first two to the Red Sox and claimed game 3, Toronto takes this one.